McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney

Laurie Oakes reports on the Channel Nine News that a McNair opinion poll has Joe Hockey and Labor’s Mike Bailey locked on 50-50 in North Sydney.

UPDATE: Sky News reveals the sample was 400.

UPDATE 2: Unsourced talk of primary vote figures of 44 per cent for Hockey and 41 per cent for Bailey.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

260 comments on “McNair: 50-50 in North Sydney”

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  4. After everything that I had read about Nicole Cornes I was surprised about how articulate and thoughtful she was. I was really expecting the biggest bimbo ever. But no, she was actually OK.

  9. Hmmmm. I would love to see Hockey have the stick taken to him but the vibe on the ground here in North Sydney suggests a swing (maybe 5-7% – my humble opinion – no insider info). Mike is a good candidate but 10% is too much to make up. Darn!

  11. [Hmmmm. I would love to see Hockey have the stick taken to him but the vibe on the ground here in North Sydney suggests a swing (maybe 5-7% – my humble opinion – no insider info). Mike is a good candidate but 10% is too much to make up. Darn!]

    I’m adding a 2.5% “Minister for WorkChoices” factor to any North Sydney predictions.

  12. hopefully Tim Flannery will be on Lateline to explain all this…. re: turnball and his rainmaker research grant, and also explain why he thinks turnballs so great.

  13. [hopefully Tim Flannery will be on Lateline to explain all this…. re: turnball and his rainmaker research grant, and also explain why he thinks turnballs so great.]

    It is because Turnbull is so high profile and a potential leader. Flannery probably figures that you need high profile politicians to keep environmental issues at the front of the agenda.

  15. I suspect the MOE would be at least 5%
    HOWEVER
    Mr Bailey is a good & hardworking candidate first serious alp candidate for ages
    Mr Hockey is the public face of “work choices ”
    The North Shore of Sydney is trending slowly towards labor, in 2004
    every seat swung to Labor despite to overall swing to the Libs this I think was worth 2% in North Sydney
    say 8 % NSW swing 2% re candidates 2% doctors wife’s 1% work choices
    this extends beyond the margin Mr Hockey has!!!!

  18. Tory Crimes @ 55

    I would be suprised if Newspoll came out with a figure like 48-52 unless it were true. It is better for the Coalition if everybody thinks they will loose.

  21. Turnbull may turn out to be the pivotal Liberal politician of the future. He has some credentials on green issues, pulp mill or no pulp mill, and is maybe the only person on the right who can bring the coalition to their senses on climate issues.

    The post-Howard era is coming, one way or another. Whoever succeeds him is going to have bring the right up to scratch with no time to waste. I can’t see another Liberal on the horizon who is inclined to take on the task. Maybe Turnbull isn’t either. There are not many to choose from. Geez, better vote Rudd and hope for the best.

  22. Just so everybody understand MOE is based on a bell curve. It is much, much, much more likely that a poll is out by a small amount than a large amount. It is the bias in the poll that determines whether it is accurate or not.

  23. [I would be suprised if Newspoll came out with a figure like 48-52 unless it were true. It is better for the Coalition if everybody thinks they will loose.]

    Newspoll don’t exactly have a good recent record of picking the final result.

    They did a poll on the Thursday and Friday before the last election, that was published on election day. It was 50 / 50 2pp with a 0.5 increase to Labor compared to the previous poll.

    As we all know, the final result was basically 53/47.

  26. Turnbull – former General Counsel for the Packer family. Now slipping $10 million to the Murdoch family.

    Yet people think he is a psuedo greeny. Wallies. 😛

  28. Count my household as 2 votes for Mike! Wish the cat could vote…

    Don’t waste your optimism. Cats all vote Liberal.

    Which is why I switched over to dogs.

  33. I had a lazy tener on bailey at 7s.

    On another note can you imagine the worldwide headlines when Australia signs Kyoto? They might not find out about our election but you can bet your bnottom dollar that when we sign. Front page every paper big smiles side stories filling pages.

    “Australia signs, America out in the cold.”

  37. Snapper,

    You don’t know what your cat gets up to after you all go to sleep, do you? Admit it.

    I thought my own cats used to curl up at the end of the bed after lights out.

    I was wrong.

  39. [Frank, have a look at Costello’s body language…..”what the F#CK am i doing here?”]

    I did (it was on at around 6.50pm, after 3 stories on the Raney Murder case where the husband was interviewed),
    it looked like neither of them wanted to be there and it was an obvious pre-record because Howard was in Perth today.

  40. This story is really taking of in the news.

    Secret IR plans kept from public:

    http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22785404-2,00.html

    THE Howard Government secretly planned to extend its unpopular Work Choices laws further two years ago but shelved the idea, documents confirmed today.

    Prime Minister John Howard’s department drew up changes to the industrial relations laws in 2005, Channel Seven reported.

    But voters will not be allowed to know what the Government was planning, with a two-and-a-half year Freedom of Information battle failing today.

    The Administrative Appeals Tribunal ruled that releasing the details was not in the public interest, saying the Government was accountable for what it had done but not for what it might be planning to do.

  41. ALP favoured to win in 79 of 150 seats (# seats with average ALP win prob > .5)
    *
    ALP Expected Seat Count: 80.73 out of 150 seats. Yesterday: 79.99 out of 149. Computed as the sum of the 3-agency-average seat-by-seat ALP win probabilities.
    *
    National Market, 3 agency average probability of Labor win: 0.769 (Yesterday: 0.78)
    *
    National Market:
    Agency ALP Coalition ALP Prob 2007-11-18
    centrebet 1.25 4.00 0.762 0.793
    portlandbet 1.23 4.10 0.769 0.769
    sportingbet 1.22 4.25 0.777 0.777
    *
    Bennelong Market:
    Agency ALP Coalition Other ALP Prob 2007-11-18
    centrebet 2.30 1.55 109.42 0.399 0.399
    portlandbet 2.30 1.55 251.00 0.401 0.358
    sportingbet 2.40 1.50 51.00 0.378 0.374
    *
    5 biggest daily changes in average ALP win probabilities:
    Division 2007-11-19 2007-11-18 Change
    Page 0.571 0.513 0.058 ?
    Robertson 0.562 0.539 0.023 ?
    Brand 0.814 0.791 0.022 ?
    Braddon 0.810 0.790 0.020 ?
    Herbert 0.599 0.579 0.020 ?
    *
    10 biggest 7 day changes in average ALP win probabilities:
    Division 2007-11-19 2007-11-12 Change
    Page 0.571 0.467 0.104 ?
    La Trobe 0.572 0.473 0.099 ?
    Herbert 0.599 0.513 0.086 ?
    Hasluck 0.641 0.564 0.078 ?
    Braddon 0.810 0.733 0.077 ?
    Wentworth 0.411 0.334 0.077 ?
    Eden-Monaro 0.779 0.704 0.076 ?
    Cowan 0.696 0.622 0.074 ?
    Moreton 0.831 0.770 0.061 ?
    Makin 0.855 0.794 0.061 ?

  42. Repeat. ALP winnning Higgins might be a Labor hacks wet dream, but there is more chance of them finding a three-legged ballerina.

  43. Geez, Frank C., I think you can just about discount that nonsense, on the basis that Coren has the gravitas of a gnat on valium.

  45. The Bennelong betting market is finally on the move. The newspoll marginal poll on the weekend kicked things into gear, and this north sydney poll has moved things along even further this evening.

    On centrebet Howard was on about 1.43 last week. Now he’s at 1.58.

  48. I live in this electorate. Shrek will win even though I’ll be voting for Mike.

    Mike is a lovely gentle man and in a short time has made many friends in this electorate. There is however, a large Armenian vote and they will stick with Shrek and his Armenian background. He was campaigning with Gladys Berejiklian, the State MP. again quite popular as she has tackled public transport in earnest.

    Shrek is very likeable and I can’t see him losing.

    Gladys faced a tough opponent in the State election being the mayor and in fact she increased her majority. People see Howard/Costello as the engineers of workchoices, Shrek as the poor messenger.

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