D-day minus 5

• Dennis Shanahan and Matthew Franklin in The Australian:

ALP polling in Victoria last week suggested Labor would be lucky to win a seat in the state, meaning that the bulk of the 16 seats the party needs for victory will have to come from NSW and Queensland … Senior Labor officials last night maintained there was a continuing swing to the ALP, as evidenced by the published polls, but said it remained a tight contest in marginal seats across the country. “There is no question we will win seats in NSW and Queensland, the question is how many,” a senior Labor source said … Victorian Liberals and Labor sources suggest extrapolations of up to six seats being won in Victoria are unlikely. Last week, Labor polled the five most marginal seats of La Trobe, Deakin, Corangamite, McEwen and McMillan with a sample of 350 voters in each seat. Labor sources stressed the ALP was not in front in any of the Victorian marginals held by the Coalition. Liberal sources said Labor was finding it difficult to get above the “high water mark” of Labor support in Victoria but they believed three or four seats were still very close … Playing down expectations in NSW, some Labor officials are suggesting a net gain of four or five seats would be a good result. The published polling in Queensland also suggests the high expectations based on Labor’s overwhelming two-party-preferred lead of 10 points for most of the past year have been tempered with the latest estimates of only three or four seats … In the Northern Territory, the Country Liberal Party’s Dave Tollner is expected to benefit from the Coalition’s intervention in the Northern Territory and hold his seat, despite it being one of the most marginal in the country.

• Gerard McManus in the Herald-Sun:

Depending on the tightness of the result next Saturday this could still mean that WA, which is three hours behind the east, may determine the final outcome very late on Saturday night. But Labor insiders remain quietly confident the result will be known well before that, with New South Wales, South Australia and Queensland likely to deliver sufficient seats for it to take government. Optimists inside Labor believe the party can take up to three to five seats in South Australia, up to eight in Queensland, and six to eight in New South Wales. And some super-optimists say Labor could take 11 or 12 seats in NSW, including the mortgage-strapped seats of Greenway (11 per cent) and Macarthur (11.1 per cent) … But based on the earlier, more conservative prediction Labor would achieve a comfortable majority of about six seats based on winning its required 16 seats in Queensland, SA and NSW, and also picking up the two Tasmanian seats, one or two in either Victoria or WA, and the Northern Territory seat of Solomon, which both sides expect to go to Labor. Interestingly, Labor is not banking on winning any seats in Victoria because it already holds a majority of the seats in the state, but will not be surprised to see up to three fall “if the swing is on” … An analysis of the critical 30 marginal seats suggests that Labor can still be certain of a definite gain of only a dozen seats and that even the best pundits have no idea of the result in some seats. For example, predicting the outcome in the Prime Minister’s seat of Bennelong, often quoted as a possible or even likely Labor gain after a redistribution cut the PM’s margin to just 4 per cent, has been hampered by the reluctance of Chinese and Korean voters to talk to pollsters. “We have no idea who they will vote for because they simply refuse to co-operate – they are suspicious of polls and questionnaires,” one NSW Labor worker told the Herald Sun this week. Many expect Mr Rudd’s fluency in Mandarin to have impressed Chinese nationals and ABCs (Australian-born Chinese), but others say Chinese typically respect elderly and incumbent leaders. Similarly, Malcolm Turnbull’s affluent Sydney seat of Wentworth has been buffeted by several controversies, including the legitimacy of Labor candidate George Newhouse. Labor insiders say they will be surprised if Mr Turnbull is not returned.

• Jennifer Hewett in The Australian:

The strong anti-union message from the Government was resonating into the idea of whether it was worth taking the risk on economic management. Even interest rate hikes were making people just a little nervous about the prospect of making a change. NSW seats such as Eden-Monaro and Page, which Labor must win next Saturday, suddenly looked much tighter. The surge to Labor in South Australia abated. Braddon in Tasmania was no longer looking so much like a near certainty for the ALP. Queensland could only really guarantee four seats rather than six. Victoria was not looking likely to produce any wins at all … in Queensland the estimate from both sides is a probable loss of four government seats (Bonner, Moreton, Blair, Herbert) to six seats (Leichhardt, Forde or just maybe the new seat of Flynn despite the anger there over council amalgamations). In NSW, the estimate is about five seats to Labor but with great nervousness about Eden-Monaro and a little nervousness about Page. Labor is not including Wentworth or Bennelong on its likely list. In Victoria, Labor is not confident of winning any seats, where effective government MPs will be trying to hold out against the tide. In South Australia, both Liberals and Labor expect a loss of three Coalition seats but no more. In Tasmania, Bass looks as if it is gone from the Liberals, but there are different views about whether the Liberals will hold Braddon. In the Northern Territory, the Liberal Country Party’s David Tollner will be trying to hold out against Labor in a typically tough-knuckled fight. And then, of course, there’s WA, where the likeliest outcome, as of this weekend, is a possible loss of Cowan – where the popular Labor MP is also retiring – balanced by a Labor pick-up in Hasluck. But absolutely no guarantees of anything.

• Andrew Burrell wrote in Friday’s Financial Review that Liberal polling showed them narrowly ahead in Stirling, whereas Labor’s had the two parties “virtually deadlocked”. Labor sources are said to be “extremely confident” of winning back Hasluck.

• Google has now added polling booth locations to its magnificent Google Maps election feature.

• Complete results from the weekend’s EMRS poll of the five Tasmanian seats available here.

• Simon Jackman has laid his predictive cards on the table.

• Andrew Fraser of The Australian gives an overview of the Sunday papers’ record on editorial endorsements, but the good bit is not included in the online article. Here it is:

Sunday Telegraph (News Limited, Sydney): 1998 Howard, 2001 Beazley, 2004 Howard, 2007 Rudd. “The Sunday Telegraph accepts readers believe it is finally time to give Labor a go. But Mr Rudd needs to guarantee our nation several things. He must stare down a Labor cabinet inhabited by many with union and factional allegiances … Mr Rudd must surround himself with a loyal team that will help him deliver on his promises“.

Sunday Herald Sun (News Limited, Melbourne): 1998 Howard, 2001 Howard, 2004 Howard, 2007 Howard. “It is time. Not to change governments, but to resist temptation. It is time to acknowledge that the Coalition is the safe bet in a political contest in which the new, despite its superficial allure, offers less than the familiar”.

The Sunday Age (Fairfax, Melbourne): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 None; 2007 No call. “On the contenders’ ‘exposed form’, The Sunday Age does not see enough differences between the Coalition and Labor to urge readers to vote for one over the other”.

The Sun-Herald (Fairfax, Sydney): 1998 N/A; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “The Sun-Herald says voters face a tough choice but our endorsement is for the Labor Party. Team Rudd gets our final tick on the strength of its fresh vision for education”.

Sunday Mail (News Limited, Adelaide): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “Now is not the time to move into untested waters, particularly as the world economy comes under strain next year. The Sunday Mail believes the Coalition is best placed to govern Australia for the next three years”.

Sunday Times (News Limited, Perth): 1998 Howard; 2001 Howard; 2004 Howard; 2007 Howard. “The Sunday Times believes change for change sake is simply not an adequate trigger to throw out a Coalition Government which, while far from perfect, has overseen record prosperity in WA and the nation”.

Sunday Mail (News Limited, Brisbane): 1998 N/A; 2001 None; 2004 Howard; 2007 Rudd. “There is undoubtedly a mood for national renewal and there is a need for national renewal. Mr Rudd has demonstrated he has the potential to undertake that task effectively”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

367 comments on “D-day minus 5”

Comments Page 4 of 8
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  2. Flash #139 I think I would tend to your first scenario. Neither of them were wearing jackets, for instance, in what could be seen as a desperate attempt to look relaxed. Howard looked trim and tanned but Peter looked like a boiled potato on legs.

  3. John of Melbourne Says: “my point is simply that the opposition in Ireland lead in the polls prior to the election and then on election day the Ahern was returned, hopefully it happens here.”

    Also, I think you should look outside as the easter bunny, santa clause and rip van winkle just drove past in a cat-in-the-hat car!

  4. The right wing media stooges can spin their numbers as they like. 52% will be enough for Labor. You cannot win every close marginal or even enough marginals with 48%. It won’t spread far enough. An inconvenient number!

    McManus clearly knows squat all about WA. Try 2 hours behind, Gerard. When I walk out from scrutineering at about 10pm Melbourne time, I hope it will be all over. If you want to know what’s happening in the West try ‘Labor View from Broome’ at http://laborview.blogspot.com/

  6. John of Melbourne Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 6:35 pm

    How can the Coalition be a bad Government if the Kevin Rudd promises to be an economic conservative and run the economy the same way as the Coalition?

    You profess to being an engineer so you should understand that John. The economy is merely the tool to provide benefit for society, it is not a substitute for society itself and there is much more to society than the economy.

    Basic engineering John, only a fool worships a tool.

  7. John of Melbourne, perhaps you are advocating that the LNP go into coalition with the Greens, which helped Fianna Fail over the line in Ireland?

  8. My impression of the TT interview was that it was a free kick for Howard much like Rove was a free kick for Rudd. Importantly, Howard seemed to take his chance to use it and sell his message about the risks of Labor.

    This probably will appeal to TT’s key audience (55+), which means that Howard is merely reinforcing his base, much like how Rudd reinforced his base last night.

  9. Gary Bruce # 137,

    You’ve got to remember that this is coming from a guy who calls Iraq a triumph. A couple more triumphs like that and the US won’t be a Super Power any more.

  10. 142 Schriftsteller

    I think there is a chance that Priestley may win Calare, maybe a bit of sentimentality. I use to live in the area, and Andren was well liked

  11. Post 142. In Calare don’t expect anything. The seat’s just too vast now for a largely unknown independent to gain a foothold. Expect Johnny Cobb to win and make his claim as the next Nationals leader.

    Sad, isn’t it?

  17. “Work choices = jury still out.” John, you make some reasonable points with the other issues but, please, this is just pure BS.

  18. Flash @ 162,

    Yeh, you’re probably right. It does skew older than Rove (obviously), but it depends how old it goes. Overall, it’s a definite positive for the Coalition, but the odds of anything from the interview being replayed ad nauseum like Rudd’s interview with Rove is unlikely (except on Sky, of course…)

  19. John of M-You havent answered Haneef, WMD or SIEV. And there was NO VOTE on going into Iraq. Howard did not put it to a vote. Ignorance is bliss, isn’t it.

  20. SL, about the TT interview. The interesting bit about that interview was the subtext. “Don’t be stupid”. They risk alienating people by all but blaming voters.

  21. 80
    John of Melbourne Says:
    November 19th, 2007 at 6:22 pm
    “…….
    Someone once said that, “The people always get the government they deserve.” I believe that and ce sera sera.

    As an engineer, if it ain’t broken don’t fix it!”

    As a non engineeer, If you can improve it, improve it.

  24. [Work choices = jury still out]

    Yeah, I guess that’s why Joe Hockey is looking at a 10% swing against him in one of the safest Liberal seats in Sydney…

  25. Let it End:

    Wrote,

    “You profess to being an engineer so you should understand that John. The economy is merely the tool to provide benefit for society, it is not a substitute for society itself and there is much more to society than the economy.

    Basic engineering John, only a fool worships a tool.”

    Let it End I agree with you wholeheartedly in that the economy is merely the tool to provide benefit for society so too does JWH and Kevin that is why he is an economic conservative.

  26. Sorry John of M. I forgot to add Howard’s unflinching support of the paedophile-sympathiser and protector Hollingworth. Please add that to Haneef, WMD and SIEV.

  31. [168: the TT interview is getting coverage on ABC news atm.]

    It wasn’t all that positive on ABC news. Climate change and leadership speculation were the main topics.

  32. TT was definitely a free kick For Howard and Costello to send a message to the great unwashed. But what message exactly? Apart from the usual lines about Australia becoming a disaster zone if Rudd becomes PM, one BIG message was that Costello will be PM if the Libs get back in. Howard declared it a certainty – “he will be elected unopposed.”

    But did you look at Costello? Shrunken in his chair, looking like a big, lazy, sluggish buffoon, and continually playing himself to Howard’s tune. Do people really want THAT as their PM? Costello looks weak. He doesn’t look anything like a PM, especially when he has Howard there virtually holding his hand.

  34. Diogenes in relation to your post:

    “John of M-You havent answered Haneef, WMD or SIEV. And there was NO VOTE on going into Iraq. Howard did not put it to a vote. Ignorance is bliss, isn’t it.”

    Haneef = from what is known now it appears that political mileage was sort from this scenario. Do I think people care no not really.

    WMD (Iraq) = Sorry what I should have said is that Rudd was for the invasion based on his memo that was sent to th PM and as was shown in the media earlier this year.

    SIEV = I’m sorry I don’t know what this means.

    Anyway have a great evening y’all I’m off to the beach. May the Coalition have regained 5points in primary voting intention in Newspoll.

    Cheers 🙂

  35. Of course there’s a dampening down process going on,and why wouldn’t there be given the nature of the swing that’s out there.If your a Tory you should be scared!!!!
    Remember that Peter Beattie, no matter how far ahead he was in the polls(and we’re talking 56% here),would always playdown expectations.Goss did the same thing.The prospect of huge landslides always frightens the nervous and enables those who wish to reluctantly protest vote to change back because they’ll win anyway.
    The Coalition,perversely also have to dampen things down,it’s in their interest at this stage of the campaign to agree that things are tight.They’re in the business of shoring up seats and saving votes.After all it is decidedly ugly out there at the moment.The workers have to be given the thought it’s still a chance to win so that they’ll turn out to help in the booths.I don’t know about down south,but here when it goes bad the Tory workers don’t show.
    As to party polling,as an ex-faceless man,I can tell you no one shares the party polling,not Labor,not the Tories.Only the Campaign Cttee and the Leadership see that sacred stuff.I served on the Admin Cttee for two terms and never saw it.Parties only leak disinformation,nothing more,nothing less.

  36. Rudd should easily be able to get an interview later in the week if he wants. The Today Tonight market probably leans more right in any case… but I wouldn’t pass up on it.

  38. John of Melbourne Says:

    “SIEV = I’m sorry I don’t know what this means.”

    And the Libs wonder why they’re so hated…. pathetic

  41. 7 Sunny Coast news – Peter Slipper using unregistered trailers for his signs and someone has been putting signs saying “Why vote for Mr Bean” next to his. 😛

  42. #182
    [But did you look at Costello? Shrunken in his chair, looking like a big, lazy, sluggish buffoon, and continually playing himself to Howard’s tune. Do people really want THAT as their PM? Costello looks weak……..]
    Exactly! Would make a great ALP ad with wording “So this is the heir apparent”

  43. “Noocat, they put on a great act for two guys who hate each other, but it does show all the same.”

    You mean the forced attempts at gazing wistfully into one another’s eyes and the soft, affectionate laughter at one another’s jokes? Er, to anyone who knows the REAL history, yes, an award-winning act for sure.

  44. Coconut supporters note:

    $52K worth of bets are waiting to be matched for Labor on betfair at 1.30 and 1.31. Maybe you all would like to accomodate those punters. Well considering you are all so confident now that you are coming back.

  46. I think there’s a world of difference between the benefit Rudd gets from Rove, and the benefit Hostello gets from TT.

    Rudd on Rove was funny, engaging, non-boring, non-political politics.

    Hostello on TT — and no I’m not watching it, but I think this is a really safe bet — will be talking heads.

    There’s a reason TT hardly ever does politicians. Their audience couldn’t give a flying freak.

  47. It is obviously in the interests of both the Coalition and Labor to leak supposed “internal polling” that shows the election will be very close.

    It means MPs and party volunteers will work as hard as they can in the last week. It also helps polarise the electorate. People who may have been considering a protest vote for a minor party may change their mind, if it’s very close. I suspect there’s a strong minor party vote – Greens in particular, but Family First and independents too – in quite a few electorates, Wentworth and Bennelong being good examples. The major parties (particularly the Liberals) won’t want to be subject to too many preferences.

    The only objective evidence is the mainstream opinion polls, and they’re all saying the same thing (a comfortable to landslide Labor win).

    A couple of other observations…

    It’s all very well for the pollsters to be conducting polls of Bennelong, Wentworth and North Sydney, because they have high-profile candidates, and give you good headlines. But a poll in this kind of seat only tells you about one seat.

    To get a real feel for the election, you need to poll some run-of-the-mill marginals, where candidate charisma is not evident, and most voters couldn’t even name a single candidate. I’d suggest Lindsay, Deakin, Dickson, Dobell, Wakefield, Cowan etc as good examples. If one mortgage belt seat swings, the others will too.

    And can I nominate Hughes as a possible surprise packet on election night? In 1996, no-one predicted Labor would lose it. There was a huge swing (13%? I may be wrong), which threw Robert Tickner out on his arse. If it can swing that much against Labor, it can swing that much back again. It’s classic interest rates territory, with young families, child care concerns, interest in education and (no doubt) WorkChoices, and petrol prices.

    And I still have a feeling in my waters about Kalgoorlie, though few people (apart from Labor View from Broome) seem to take this seriously.

    And yes, the majority of viewers of Today Tonight would be over-55s. Same as the 7.30 Report, ABCRadio current affairs, John Laws, whatever. If it claims to be “news” or “current affairs”, it has an older demographic. There are few opportunities for politicians to speak to younger audiences. That’s why Howard was so stupid not to go on Rove and FM radio.

    I remian convinced that this election will be decided by the Under 25s, who will flock to Labor (someetimes via the Greens).

  48. I was able to have a quick chat to Mike Bailey on Saturday. I know him a (very) little through a mutual association. He’s always a happy personable kinda guy so can’t read too much into his positive vibe. He was saying he thought there was only a percent in it either way and he was quietly confident. He also relayed that Bob Hawke had bumped into Hockey (looking far from happy) at an airport or something very recently. Hawkey says “why so glum Joe?”, “I think Bailey’s probably got me” was the response.

    Labor seems to be going pretty hard in Macarthur. We had a couple of Rudd visits early on, and there are a couple of very big and expensive looking billboards on the M5. I’ve also seen a mobile billboard around and they are running ads on the local radio targetting Farmer (you voted for Workchoices).

  50. Today Tonight has a much broader audience than over 55s. A 19 year old girl at my work watches it religiously. I get to hear all the details about the latest shonky con men on a daily basis.

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