Westpoll: 52-48 to Liberal in WA

I am informed via comments that Sky News has reported on a Westpoll survey to be published in tomorrow’s West Australian, showing the Coalition with a 52-48 two-party lead in WA. This compares with 53-47 to Labor’s favour in Westpoll’s last statewide survey on October 6, displaying a volatility which has been fairly typical of the series. The Liberals’ primary vote lead is 47 per cent to 38 per cent. The sample is usually around 400. The Coalition’s two-party vote in WA at the 2004 election was 55.4 per cent, so the latest figure still points to a swing which if uniform would win Labor Stirling and Hasluck. Between the two statewide polls, Westpoll produced a survey from Stirling, Hasluck and Cowan on October 20, each with a sample of 400, which had the Liberals ahead in all three. In other poll news, Lateline tells us that a Galaxy marginal seats poll to be published on Sunday will show Labor with a two-party lead of 53-47, although it’s hard to say what this means exactly until we know which seats were covered.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

797 comments on “Westpoll: 52-48 to Liberal in WA”

Comments Page 15 of 16
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  5. #
    507
    Let It End Says:
    November 17th, 2007 at 5:36 pm

    As we now enter the final stretch of the last week does anyone want to reassess their pre campaign predictions listed here http://pbpredict.googlepages.com/home

    Though far more confident now I’ll stick with my ALP 85 seat prediction.

    I’m downgrading my prediction to 93 seats. Hopeful that I can get the reasons for this up on Fair News ASAP.

  11. You don’t look at individual polls. You must look at the overall picture. The overall picture is that the Coalition is closing the gap on Labor but Labor is still in a fairly comfortable position to win. There has been a slight narrowing in the polls but still every poll and bookie indicate at least a 76 seat win for the ALP. Hey, after nearly 12 years of Howard I’d be happy for a minor win.

  12. Triffid@699

    Just saw the Govt. add – ‘Terrorists are hiding under your bed – better report them on the hotline’.
    And an ad that Labor is bad for young people. I kid you not.

  13. AEC laws state that there are to be no political ad’s on TV for the week leading up to the election day.

    And no I wasn’t being serious about the Coalition being scratched in the betting market, but would be funny if it happened.

  15. This latest unknown Marginal Galaxy Poll is the one for the true believers. This is the one which will show the narrowing. This is the one which will turn the tide. This is the one which will bring home the bacon. This is the one they have been waiting for since Godot. This is the one which will prove once and for all that Morgan, Newspoll and ACN are at best fabricated to construct a narrative to sell dog food ads. This is real manna from heaven. Finally the time has come the true believers have been waiting for.

    The Libs are coming back, they are coming back….

    Be afraid, be very afraid because when Howard gets back in, he will be angry, very angry and he will want to punish the electorate for playing such a sick joke on him.

    And He will strike down upon thee with great vengeance and furious anger those who attempted to poison and destroy his Liberal brothers. And they will know that Howard is the Lord when He will lay His vengeance upon you…

  17. Going on those latest QLD betting figures and giving a 50:50 split to the line ballers, I make 12 seats to Labor in QLD for a 6 seat gain.

  19. WYSIWYG

    I play the field and the power base will come through when they are required.

    It’s a dangerous game I play, but this is necessary to achieve the goal.

    At this point………. nothing to lose!

  20. Sorry if this has been previously noted, on Sportingbet Maxine has moved in to $2.40 and the rodent is out to $1.50. (She was $2.65 for the last few days)

    We have movement, and there’s a smell of burnt rodent in the air.

  21. Triffid – a lot of people have been hurt by the rodent’s rancid,revolting regime; You cant blame them for being happy to see the end of the vicious little rat. First the purge, then the positive reconstruction of the individual and national psyches.

  22. slackboy – after 11 years a bit of gloating is ok. The difference is this party won’t gloat while in government (which even I admit the ALP did a bit of after 93 – absolutely fatal).

    Costello, Abbott, Downer, Vaile et al have been gloating for 3 years thinking it didn’t matter what they did because 16 seats was a 2 term margin.

    If you want proof, read the ANAO report.

  23. Errata

    Should have checked figures more widely. *embarrassed* to have forgotten Bonner and Moreton, they are looking sunk on the betting market.

    That gives, by my estimation, 8 seats to Labor at present. An increase of 2.

    Now, here is a spanner:

    1. Family First leveraged Ross Vasta into Bonner in what should have been a shoe-in for Con Sciacca. This by a figure of almost 4% on preferences. They are also strong in Moreton and the party polled 7% in QLD in the state election. These equivalent State seats were not contested by FFP (when the State Election caught all parties off-guard, being so early!). Labor walked away from a FFP preference deal, so they have had little choice but go back to the coalition (despite some discontent with Libs here!).

    2. Unless the ALP can manage a) the current margin PLUS approximately 2/3 of the FFP primary, the seats, amazingly, are STILL in jeopardy..

  24. Coota Bulldog.
    Thanks for the compelling analysis. To support your sound argument, Parra has become a Liberal marginal now according to A. Green:

    Parramatta
    Sydney Western Suburbs
    Marginal Liberal 0.8%

    (*) – The party status of this electorate has changed. See notes on redistribution below.

  25. We have had a couple of ads from Wozza (Warren Entsch, Leichardt) telling us to vote for Charlie McKillop because she has worked with him to get the best deal from Canberra. Wozza tells us she is the best person for the job.
    So what you say. !
    Well, the Liberal logo was in the first frame but disappeared, no mention of the Liberal Party or John Howard was spoken, and the ad was written and authorised by Wozza. Again, no Liberal Party was mentioned.
    Here is a tip folks. Leichardt is a special for the long odds. Everyone talks in Cairns and everyone is saying that Charlie has no chance. She is a nice enough lady but the time has come. Just like Eden-Monaro Leichardt is a bellweather seat. It will change hands. Come on down Jim Tourner !

  26. Concerning High profile candiates and how they can backfire. In five weeks of travelling around the seat, I have only seen labour posters with Rudd in them, The labour fellow running for this seat has had no appearances, except for last Wednesday when he turned up nearly one hour late to a function. Still to get rid of Howard I will vote for the local labour guy.

  27. DiIManson @ 658 : I know what it means, untangling the mess left behind by 12 years of the Coalition and finding out what the “real” story is on the economy, and various high-Budget portfolios.

    In a Canberra Times article, Jack Waterford includes this intriguing sentence –

    “The party’s political machinery has also been closely, and improperly, hooked into the information and intelligence data properly gathered (for other purposes) by government agencies in a way that may be difficult for the new government to disentangle.”

    For example, coercing public servants to supply information that would normally be considered as constituting Breach of privacy/confidentiality of individuals and organisations has been more common under Coalition govt. Canberran public servants (in policy line agencies) will be living in *interesting* times in a week or two!

    Adam I love your maps! I live in Canberra, but I did laugh, I would have a drive a long, long way to find a booth that was Liberal even of the palest of blues… *chuckle*

  28. Goodbye Mr T @ 721. I’m one of those people who would be very happy.

    I just think its a bad look to gloat at the losing side. Enjoy by all means, but do it with some dignity.

  30. red wombat @ 533

    Good wombat, bewdy! Make sure the Upwey booth is covered early. You’ll need at least three on the booth at all times – one to cover the pig-brains that try to sneak through on the Belgrave side. Is the booth still the hall opposite the station? Or that church near the pizza shop?

  33. Betting markets have gone nuts!

    Benelong is about the only good value left.

    Can anyone give me another tip or two where the value is good?

    Check out the markets of Bass and Braddon for something weird also.

  34. They all stood in a huddle after the game, both teams together side by side after a really great game, that is one of the more amazing things I’ve seen on a sporting feild/court.

  37. [At least we have WON something!! The Aussie girls have just beaten the NZ girls in the world netball champ in Auckland]

    [At least we have WON something!! The Aussie girls have just beaten the NZ girls in the world netball champ in Auckland]

    I’ll just point out that the team are all members of the Australian Workers Union.

    Bill Shorten should be happy.

  39. 734 [They all stood in a huddle after the game, both teams together side by side after a really great game, that is one of the more amazing things I’ve seen on a sporting feild/court.]

    I’ll be expecting the Rat to follow their example immediately following his concession speech this time next week.

  42. Keep an eye on some Fairfax/Rural Press papers tomorrow (Sunday):

    An EMRS poll to be published tomorrow shows all five Tasmanian seats being won by Labor.

    The poll shows a 60-40 statewide two-party-preferred result for Labor, with the pollster saying that 80 per cent of those making up the high Green primary vote of 17 per cent had said they would give Labor their second preference.

  43. Cbet

    1. LABOR 1.17
    2. COALITION 5.10

    Well

    Betfair has

    ALP 1.26
    Team Rodent 4.40

    – a chance to make a quick arbitrage profit if you can be bothered!

  44. Re: TV ads. The blackout is 3 days (midnight wednesday I think) not a week, as someone suggested.

    Ads in this footpad tonight have been frequent. They are National Party scare ads – Labor will keep all the money in Sydney and stop the special projects the Nationals have introduced. These ads are not aimed at Paterson (liberal) but Lyne and the lower half of Cowper What is going on? A response to the Auditor’s report – particularly as Vaile’s hand has been caught in the till? how close is Cowper? Surely Vaile can’t be under threat in Lyne, can he?

  45. ALP up on 18 and dead even on Page. Jackman has them winning 78 with an expected 80 (agregate of centerbet, sportingbet,portlandbet).
    Kelly this isn’t Carlton VS anyone. This Port adelaide vs Geelong all over again. It will be over in the first quater, but this time I won’t lose interest but watch every gruelling minute.
    Nuntucket sleigh ride to you my girl!

  46. Since Jackman’s post, the betting has gone even MORE nuts. Looks like punters finally realise that Labor’s going to SMASH the Libs. I’ll change my prediction to 95 seats for Labor, down from 100-105, but there could still be a final week blow-out, as soft Lib voters jump on the Rudd bandwagon. Marginal seats polling is horrid for the govt; that explains the betting.

  47. Anyone (from either side of politics) who thinks these polls give any comfort to the Coalition needs their head examined.
    Here’s a question: which seat will produce (a) the biggest 2PP swing to Labor and (b) the smallest 2PP swing to Labor (or biggest swing to Coalition).
    I’ll be Sydney-centric about it (sorry all):
    (a) Warringah – Tony will go close to losing an unloseable seat.
    (b) Wentworth – in fact, I’ll stick my neck out further and say that Wentworth will be the only seat in the Reps that will swing to the Coalition (2PP).
    Thoughts?

  48. Triffid @ 688
    Yes that win “for the True Believers” speech of Keating’s guaranteed a good part of his demise. What I really would hate to see though is any politician ever use the word “MANDATE” again.

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