• Big round of applause to whoever it is who runs this website, which looks like it will be the place to go for booth-level results on Saturday night. Included are maps of polling booth locations for every single seat.
• A “senior ALP source” tells the Northern Territory News that party polling has their candidate Damian Hale “just ahead” of CLP member Dave Tollner in Solomon. The source further notes that such polls do not factor in the Defence vote at Robertson Barracks, suggesting the race is actually “neck and neck”.
• Independent candidate Danielle Ecuyer continues to capture more than her share of the media coverage from Wentworth. Yesterday she went public with an email from Caroline Overington of The Australian who told her, in what Peter Garrett might describe as a jocular moment, that she should direct preferences away from ex-boyfriend George Newhouse and towards Malcolm Turnbull, as it would be “such a good front page story”. In other Wentworth news, indignant gay rights campaigner Gary Burns has been dumped as a Labor volunteer after physically intimidating Lucy Turnbull and telling her husband he had a “middle-aged well-dressed ‘fag hag’ impersonator of a wife”. According to the Daily Telegraph, Burns reckons George Newhouse does “not know how to run a campaign”.
• The Greens will direct preferences to Labor over the Coalition in every Queensland seat except Wide Bay, where an open card will be issued as a gesture of protest over the Traveston Dam and council amalgamations.
• Hat tip to Sacha Blumen for drawing my attention to the fact that a state redistribution process is under way in Queensland. The deadline for submissions of “suggestions” passed yesterday, so publication of proposed boundaries is presumably still a few months away. A redistribution of Tasmanian Legislative Council boundaries is at a similarly early stage.
Dr Good, those poll results are taken from very small samples taken over a stretch of time with no particular regard to ensuring random sampling. In other words they’re rubbish.
Re: The Liberal lauch – and even Sid Marris wrote a piece in the Australian saying there was not a whole lot of positive vibes at the Liberal launch. I wonder if this contrasts with previous elections…
Kymbo & George @ 9 & 12.
These “morons” that you refer to on the 4 Corners program last night will be the one that decide if our party (Labor) gets into power. Be careful not to get too ahead of yourselves.
Well, seems the GG editors are no longer opposed to middle-class welfare. Here’s what they said today about yesterday’s launch promises:
“The Australian remains sceptical of non-means-tested schemes that owe as much to political opportunity as genuine need. But anything that binds families together and encourages saving is to be applauded.”
Credibility = zero.
I know, I know. Why am I bothering to read it? Sorry, couldn’t help myself. Somewhere deep inside I thought they would have a go at Howard (as they have done in the past) for middle-class welfare.
The Liberal party candidate on PM last night was trying to suggest that the ALP education tax subsidy was only on Laptops – but as far as I can see it applies to , at the very least much more than that:
“Eligible items will include laptops, home computers, printers, home internet connection, education software and school text books.”
ALP Tax Policy
I think if it is a tax deduction then the following things would also included:
– Uniforms
– Stationery
– Excursions
– Desks (?)
– Music Lessons
I saw the same reference to “only laptops under Rudd” a few times last night. Has anyone else seen it or can they provide more details as to what’s in and what’s out?
From Peter Martin’s blog:
http://petermartin.blogspot.com/2007/11/reserve-bank-to-earth-nice-policy.html
Did Costello give Howard the 5 course meal menu this year? Because it looks like Howard really did order everything on the menu.
Kymbos, George (and DLP),
re Four Corners “The Undecided”. Well exactly. The rest of us – the entire country – is held to ransom by people who haven’t got a clue. Forget the citizenship test, we should have an electoral test – and if you’re not smart enough, I get to vote on your behalf.
This article makes the same accusation, but less stringently
Yesterday, I meant to say ‘first day of the election’
One the second day of the election, the PM Porked me with
Two housing policies, one CGT free, the other tax free
Whether or not they end up voting for Labor they will still be profoundly ignorant on most of the issues they are voting for. I know 10 year olds who are more clued up than they are. It should be no surprise that Howard has managed to get himself re-elected time after time.
As I said previously, there should be some sort of policy multiple choice quiz for you to fill out along with your voting slip. If you tick answers like “Labor has said it won’t sign Kyoto” then your vote should automatically be considered as informal. 😉
Melbourne talkback radio today is full of talk about Howard’s rebates for private school education. The whole private vs public school debate is raging again. This is the wedge that Howard wanted to create.
Many callers are talking about the “sacrifices” they’ve made to send to private schools because state schools aren’t up to scratch. They argue they deserve extra assistance from the government to do this.
This is a big issue, that had remained quiet since Latham departed the scene. but it’s back!
Ian, I always thought they could be the same test!
In order to become an Australian Citizen or win the right to vote you pass the test.
Ian — snap, on the electoral test. 🙂
fagin-cheers
been kept up to speed by the better half (cynic)
seems that the kayes,etc are hibernating but is tabitha really not someone playing a joke.spambot?
“icehockeys” chances have melted away each day as more and more of the people realise that worstchoices is effectively state sponsored serfdom!
as for “lack of balls” well a certain tweety is telling me that he will lose apparently the field has split as ms O has put the cat among the pigeons-expect more stories of arm twisting by concerned journos
re John hunt (just love that name) the treatment of one mr tan has galvanised certain parts of his electorate (this story has had legs for a while ,the MSM is such a suck)
Hemingway and Soc: The coalition launch was actually first or second story in the Nine Melbourne News last night.
The Parliament ought to represent all the people, not merely the people who are interested in its workings.
In Adelaide, the Advertiser has the Lib launch as front page but not in a very positive light. The headline is “Last Stand”, which will emphasise that it’s a desperate and futile effort by the Rodent. Poor old Custer. BTW Do any of you know what Custer’s famous last words were?
This education issue demonstrates the real change in Australia’s social fabric that Howard has wrought:
Why aren’t these people demanding that Public schools be made better? Why is it the User Pays model has usurped the “Best For Everyone” model?
With regards to that “Jocular moment C.Overington had by subtly exerting pressure on the Wentworth Greens candidate to preference Malcolm – Can I suggest a sinister conspiracy theory by Murdoch to get his little old mate Howard into Office. Apart from the Republic debate, the Government Gazette (ie the Australian) has always been very partial to the conservatives… I wonder what if any back room dealings have been done…
RA: Greed! Pure greed. Howard declared a few years ago that egalitarianism was dead. It’s all about oneself and their family.
Antonio @62, thanks for that update. As I said, it was an extreme surprise for our Sydney/ WIN edition.
You may as well just tell us what Custer’s last words were, ’cause I’ll simply Google them up.
“We’ve caught them napping” – pretty good.
Sitting Bull said on Custer
“Custer stood like sheaf of corn with all the ears around him. He laughed when he died… he fired his last shot”
‘Soberingly’ – the year was 1876
Ohh – And I think the wheels have fallen off General Wenck’s car – still that’s what you get for wasting your money on a Merc.
Hey everyone, a few of the old hands here have been visitng the ABC site to add their two penn’orth worth on Ms Overington.
Do join in if you have a spare moment.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/13/2088953.htm
“Meganomics” in “Australian” has a most compelling and lucid analysis of Team Howard Launch. Here’s a choice bit of it:
“Copycatting only works when a leader can reframe the debate back on to his terms.
Rudd had pulled off this sleight of hand in week one of the election when he signed up to the bulk of the Coalition’s personal tax cuts, but used some spare change to announce a new idea, the 50 per cent education tax refund.
Howard has just pinched Labor’s idea and repackaged it as a Coalition handout for rich and poor families alike.
Howard’s education tax refund is 10 percentage points lower than Rudd’s at 40 per cent – but promises more in the pocket.
It takes a second to explain why, which is probably a clue that this handout will not be an election decider.”
http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/meganomics/index.php/theaustralian/comments/pm_on_rivals_turf
Diogenes @64: was it “Go for growth”?
Looks like I’m going to have to answer my own question. Custer’s famous last words were “Where the f#ck did all those Indians come from?”. Sorry to lower the tone!
Interesting that the ‘swinging voters’ on 4C are probably a product of the public school system the Government has been underfunding for the last decade. Is it any wonder they dont support the idea of an education revolution. The punters might start to think for themselves.
“This is the wedge that Howard wanted to create.”
Except that Labor hasn’t fallen for it.
The betting markets haven’t moved a millimetre since the Liberal launch. In fact they haven’t moved in days.
This election is set in concrete.
Diogenes @ 64: They were “Yes, Peter, I promise to hand over command to you at some unspecified point in the future.”
Front page of The Telecrap is positively gushing about the (Grand)Father of The Nation’s campaign launch.
And as 4 Corners clearly demonstrated last night, never underestimate the stupidity of sections of the Australian electorate. What really got me was one of them complaining that they hadn’t heard about a particular policy, when obviously they hadn’t bothered to reach beyond a diet of A Current Affair and The Telegraph and actually find out for themselves.
after watching 4 corners last night, i’m very afraid. swinging voters of lindsay, when your IQ gets to 70, sell.
The Australian’s editor-in-chief, Chris Mitchell, is standing by his reporter.
“Ms Overington is a colour writer and her correspondence with Ms Ecuyer seems no more than colourful,” he said.
WTF is a colour writer?
can she charged by the AEC ?
Gusface @ 79 – a colour writer is one who writes features, profiles, light-hearted crap. I wasn’t aware, however, that it included trying to influence preference decisions, then bullshitting about it once sprung.
The 4C-like swinging voters in Lindsay would probably fall for the ‘get rid of the hoons’ campaign without realising that policy would affect them and their kids, since they’re most likely be the hoons.
If the Coalition were going for a big bang with their launch, they ended up with a fart in a bath.
The front-bench all-stars introduction from the Lord Mayor of who the bloody hell are you was laughable. I mean come on -Mick Jagger stopping mid-set to introduce the Stones is acceptable – this was just sad. It almost felt like they were already in opposition. A bunch of smart-arse lines about reds under the bed got the Vaucluse / Toorak set giggling, but it felt like the rowing coach at Scotch College saying that the other team poos its pants because it won the race.
They looked like a little childish clique of “we know best” elitists smugly pretending not to care that people have stopped listening.
I think they squanderd their best asset – incumbancy. This didn’t look like a Government in command – it looked like a bunch of self-congratulatory rich arseholes – a fairly accurate reflection of reality I suppose.
Gusface – a ‘colour writer’ gives a vivid, personal account of events. Think of “local colour” … Hope that helps.
66
Aesop Says:
stuff about a GG conspiracy
—
might work if the independent could actually influence her preference flow, I somehow doubt she will have every booth manned by volunteers (all of Newhouse’s ex’s?) to actually distribute a HTV card preferencing libs
gusface @79. No they can’t charge her. It was just a joke 😉
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22748795-7582,00.html
Apologies if I’m repeating an earlier remark, but has there been any discussion of the AEC looking into Ms Overington’s attempts to influence the actions of a federal candidate?
I think some of the comments here today about the voters on 4 Corners last night are a bit ‘elitist’. These people are entitled to a vote – it’s up to the political parties to make sure the voters understand the issues and can make a judgement that suits their needs. Beware hubris guys, it’s not over yet.
i disagree, alex mcdonnel – i think if you come across people without a functioning brain, whether they’re swinging or rusted-on voters, it’s remarkable to be confronted by them and not elitist at all to comment on their lack of neuronal activity.
Hey, don’t knock the Brisbane lord mayor, after the 24th he’ll be the most senior liberal party office holder in the entire country! Shardenfreud anybody?
oops – should have read gusfaces’s post.
Still, I’m sure that no News Ltd journos will be having a dig at the Chaser boys for their bribe gag last week – that really was a joke.
At least now its on the record that Overington is a disgraceful excuse for a journalist and a clear partisan hack. I expect she’ll get promoted shortly.
Overington is stupid – even if it is “merely a joke”, it’s irresponsible for a person in her position to email a political candidate with statements like that. No, excessive amounts of flippancy and an emoticon does not make it irrelevant and trivial. No doubt this will all blow over, but it’s just another mark against the professionalism of the Australian.
I’m pleased to report that Ecuyer will be making a formal complaint to the AEC as early as today and that an AEC spokesman has said they would investigate if a complaint was received. Oh what a beautiful morning!
UMMM
this is an outright PUBLISHED attempt to influence by promise a candidates preference flows
this is criminal i thought (unless your a liberal stooge i suppose)
FMD if nothing is done about this then the fraud that could be perpertrated is unbelievable
if any lawyers read pb they should be willing to pro bono it -get it on this is an assault on democracy by use of power,influence and money!
ps typo earlier-should be Tran not tan
The punters are beginning to reflect the polls:
At Portlandbet: http://betelection.com/elections/
“Labor’s biggest lead seat-by-seat.”
“With money for Labor in both Deakin and Bowman overnight, the ALP has edged ahead in both seats. Previously standing at ‘pick it’ and being allocated 50-50 Coalition/ALP, the movement into ALP favouritism in both seats has changed the seat count to 79 Labor, 69 Coalition, with 2 independents.”
Alex McDonnel,
Nothing elitist about my comments re Four Corners. It’s not that they’re entitled to a vote, they have to vote. I support compulsory voting. I’d like that to be augmented by ‘compulsory smarts’. I’ve worked with the great unwashed, and it takes some people all their wits just to get through the day. It’s an observation, not a criticism.
And definitely no hubris here. There’s a long way to go and – as you might detect – I have no confidence in the public’s ability to make the right decision. I’m quietly terrified that we’ll end up with three years worse than the past eleven.
Some interesting news from Portlandbet: Labor are now favourites in 79 seats to the coalition’s 69, 2 independents. This is Labor’s best odds yet as for winning the most individual seats. The new Labor wins are Deakin and Bowman which have been 50/50 for a while now. It is interesting to note that odds of the Libs holding Bonner have blown out to a massive $9 against $1.04 for an ALP win. These are the kind of odds you see in safe Labor seats!
Also, it would appear that Solomon and Bennelong are flipsides of a coin. Opinion polls indicate that Solomon is close: it seems the punters feel otherwise as they’ve been consistently backing Labor there. Whilst all the polls of Bennelong point to a Labor win the punters think otherwise and have been consistently backing Howard to hold his own seat.
Should have included the reference for my answer.
http://www.smh.com.au/text/articles/2007/11/12/1194766587735.html
And now its time to look up the electoral Act…