Wheel of fortune: episode two

I am finally extracting the digit with respect to the Senate tickets, and will add extra states to this entry as I complete them. Acknowledgements are due to Antony Green’s easy-to-use group voting tickets and most excellent Senate calculator. In other Senate news, Malcolm Mackerras makes his bold predictions for the Senate in an articule from The Australian which I can’t find online. He predicts the Greens will take an Australian Capital Territory seat from the Liberals, 3-2-1 results favouring Labor in New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania, 3-2-1 favouring Liberal in Western Australia, 3-2 favouring Labor plus one for Nick Xenophon in South Australia, and three-all in Queensland.

Queensland: The People’s Front of Judea-style schisms among the right should scatter the micro party vote, preventing any chance of an upset. That extends to Pauline Hanson, who has no chance at all despite media reports she has been “boosted” by preferences. The real significance of Hanson is that her preferences will, eventually, end up with Labor’s third candidate ahead of the Greens and the Coalition’s number three, Nationals Senator Ron Boswell. The remaining preferences will split in an orderly fashion – religious, populist and recreation parties go to the Coalition, while the Democrats, Climate Change Coalition, Socialist Alliance and What Women Want (along with the Carers Alliance) go to the Greens. Once those three blocs are added together, it will be a question of which out of Labor, the Coalition and the Greens misses out on one of the final two seats.

Preference tickets can be summarised as follows:

WHAT WOMEN WANT: Greens; Democrats; SA; Labor; DLP; Carers; CCC; SOL; LDP; Fishing; Coalition; CDP; Shooters; Lifestyle; One Nation; Pauline Hanson; Family First; NCPP; CEC.

LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY PARTY: Fishing; Shooters; One Nation WA; Lifestyle; NCPP; DLP; SOL; Carers; Pauline Hanson; CCC; CEC; WWW; Greens; Family First; CDP; Labor; Democrats; Coalition; Greens; SA.

CLIMATE CHANGE COALITION: Democrats; Greens; Pauline Hanson; Labor; Family First; NCPP; Shooters; Lifestyle; Fishing; SA; Carers; LDP; Labor; SOL; WWW; DLP; One Nation WA; Coalition; CDP; CEC.

CARERS: Greens; Pauline Hanson; Family First; SA; Democrats; WWW; CDP; Lifestyle; CEC; NCPP; DLP; CCC; Fishing; LDP; SOL; Shooters; One Nation; Coalition; Labor.

SENATOR ON-LINE: Carers; CCC; WWW; LDP; Fishing; NCPP; Democrats; Labor; Greens; Coalition; DLP; Family First; Lifestyle; SA; One Nation; Pauline Hanson; CEC; CDP; Shooters.

SOCIALIST ALLIANCE: Greens; WWW; Labor; Democrats; Carers; CCC; SOL; Coalition; LDP; NCPP; Fishing; Lifestyle; DLP; Shooters; Family First; CDP; CEC; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

FISHING PARTY: Coalition 3; LDP 9; CDP 10; NCPP 11; Carers 12; Family First 13; Shooters 14; SOL 15; CCC 16; WWW 17; One Nation WA 19; SA 20; CEC 24; Pauline Hanson 30; DLP 31; Lifestyle 38; Labor 59; Democrats 61; Greens 63;

FAMILY FIRST: Lifestyle; Carers; CDP; One Nation; DLP; CCC; Fishing; Shooters; NCPP; Coalition; SOL; Pauline Hanson; LDP; WWW; SA: CEC; Labor; Greens; Democrats.

DEMOCRATS: CCC; Carers; WWW; Greens; SA; LDP; SOL; Lifestyle; Labor; Coalition; Fishing; DLP; Family First; NCPP; Shooters; CEC; CDP; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

COALITION: Family First; Lifestyle; Fishing; CDP; NCPP; Shooters; Carers; LDP; WWW; CCC; SOL; CEC; SA; Democrats; Greens; Labor; Pauline Hanson; One Nation.

SHOOTERS: Lifestyle; Pauline Hanson; CDP; Family First; Coalition; One Nation; DLP; NCPP; CEC; Carers; CCC; SOL; WWW; LDP; Fishing; Labor; Democrats; Greens.

GREENS: Carers; WWW; CCC; SA; LDP; SOL; Democrats; Labor; DLP; Fishing; Lifestyle; CEC; NCPP; Shooters; One Nation; CDP; Family First; Coalition; Pauline Hanson.

LABOR: Greens; Democrats; SOL; CCC; Lifestyle; WWW; Carers; Shooters; SA; DLP; CDP; Family First; LDP; Fishing; NCPP; Coalition; CEC; One Nation; Pauline Hanson.

AUSTRALIAN FISHING AND LIFESTYLE PARTY: Family First; Coalition; Shooters; Pauline Hanson; Fishing: Labor; CDP; One Nation; NCPP; LDP; Carers; DLP; SOL; CCC; WWW; CEC; SA; Greens; Democrats.

ONE NATION: Family First; Fishing Party; CEC; Carers; WWW; Shooters; SA; CDP; NCPP; Lifestyle; DLP; SOL; LDP; CCC; Coalition; Pauline Hanson; Democrats; Greens; Labor.

PAULINE’S UNITED AUSTRALIA: One Nation; CCC; Carers; Shooters; Lifestyle; CDP; NCPP; Fishing; CEC; WWW; Family First; LDP; SOL; Democrats; DLP; Labor; Coalition; SA; Greens.

CEC: Coalition; Democrats; CDP; One Nation; Pauline Hanson; Fishing; Shooters; Carers; NCPP; SOL; WWW; Family First; Lifestyle; DLP; SA; Labor; LDP; CCC; Greens.

CDP: Coalition; DLP; Family First; NCPP; Carers; Shooters; Lifestyle; Fishing; Pauline Hanson; One Nation; LDP; CEC; CCC; SOL; Democrats; WWW; SA; Labor; Greens.

NON-CUSTODIAL PARENTS PARTY: Pauline Hanson; Carers; half (Family First; Fishing; One Nation; CDP), half (Fishing; CDP; Family First; One Nation); CCC; SOL; CEC; Shooters; DLP; LDP; Lifestyle; Coalition; Labor; Democrats; SA; WWW; Greens.

DLP: CDP; Coalition; Family First; Shooters; Fishing; NCPP; Labor; Lifestyle; LDP; Democrats; Pauline Hanson; One Nation; SOL; Carers; CCC; Greens; CEC; WWW; SA.

Western Australia: The Greens seem to have emerged a loser from the Western Australian Senate preference tickets, owing to extremely tight preferencing for the Christian Democratic Party from every right-of-centre player in the league: One Nation, Family First, the DLP, the Citizens Electoral Council, the Non-Custodial Parents Party, Conservatives for Climate and Environment, the Liberty and Democracy Party and even the Nationals (ahead of the Liberals), plus the curiously anti-left Carers Alliance. The CDP will also get any Coalition surplus, although this would be a small-change leftover after the Coalition wins a third seat. This raises the possibility that the Greens will be excluded after falling behind the CDP, at which point their preferences would secure a third seat for Labor. The other difficulty facing the Greens is that Labor’s vote will be much higher than its 32.5 per cent from 2004. Labor’s third candidate will thus inherit a bigger surplus over the 28.7 per cent needed for the first two seats, presenting a bigger hurdle for the Greens to clear. If they fail, it will be WA’s first minor party lockout since 1980 (which was the last five-seat half-Senate election).

NATIONALS: CDP; Liberal; Greens; Family First; DLP; Democrats; One Nation; Carers Alliance: NCPP; CCE; CCC; LDP; SOL; WWW; Campbell; SA; Labor; CEC.

CITIZENS ELECTORAL COUNCIL : Liberal; CDP; Campbell; One Nation; NCPP; Carers; WWW; LDP; SOL; DLP; Democrats; Nationals; SA; CCC; CCE; Family First; Labor; Greens.

CHRISTIAN DEMOCRATIC PARTY: Carers; DLP; CEC; Family First; CCE; One Nation; Campbell; NCPP; Liberal; Nationals; CCC; SOL; WWW; SA; Labor; Greens; Democrats.

NON-CUSTODIAL PARENTS: Family First; Campbell; One Nation; CDP; SOL; DLP; CCC; CCE; Democrats; LDP; SA; Carers; CEC; WWW; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Greens.

DEMOCRATIC LABOR PARTY: CDP; Family First; Liberal; Nationals; Carers; NCPP; Campbell; One Nation; CEC; LDP; SOL; WWW; CCE: CCC; Labor; SA; Democrats; Greens.

LIBERAL: Nationals; CDP; Family First; DLP; LDP; Campbell; Carers; CCE; NCPP; Democrats; Greens; WWW; SOL; CCC; CEC; Labor; SA; One Nation.

DEMOCRATS: Carers; CCC; WWW; CCE; Greens; half (Labor; Nationals; Liberal), half (Nationals, Liberal, Labor); SA; Independent; Family First; SOL; NCPP; CEC; Campbell; LDP; One Nation; DLP; CDP.

ONE NATION: NCPP; CEC; Family First; CDP; Campbell; SOL; WWW; LDP; DLP; Carers; SA; CCE; CCC; Nationals; Liberal; Democrats; Greens; Labor.

FAMILY FIRST: LDP; NCPP; Carers; CCE; CCC; SOL; DLP; CDP; One Nation; Liberal; Nationals; Campbell; Labor; Democrats; CEC; SA; WWW; Greens.

SENATOR ON-LINE: Carers; CCE; CCC; WWW; LDP; NCPP; Democrats; Greens; Labor; Liberal; Nationals; DLP; Family First; SA; CDP; One Nation; CEC; Campbell.

CARERS ALLIANCE: Democrats; CDP; WWW; One Nation; CEC; LDP; NCPP; CCE; Campbell; SA; SOL; CCC; DLP; Nationals; Liberal; Family First; Greens; Labor.

LABOR: Greens; Democrats; CCC; SOL; LDP; DLP; WWW; SA; Carers; Nationals; CDP; Family First; CCE; Liberal; NCPP; CEC; One Nation.

CLIMATE CHANGE COALITION: WWW; Democrats; CCE; Family First; Carers; Campbell; SA; NCPP; DLP; One Nation; SOL; CDP; LDP; Greens; CEC; Nationals; half (Liberal; Labor), half (Labor; Liberal).

SOCIALIST ALLIANCE: Greens; WWW; Labor; Carers; CCC; Democrats; CCE; SOL; Liberal; Nationals; LDP; DLP; NCPP; Family First; CDP; CEC; Campbell; One Nation.

CAMPBELL: CDP; NCPP; One Nation; CEC; Carers; Family First; DLP; Nationals; Liberal; Labor; Democrats; SOL; WWW; LDP; CCE; CCC; SA; Greens.

WHAT WOMEN WANT: Greens; SA; Labor; Democrats; SOL; Carers; CCC; DLP; Campbell; CCE; Liberal; CDP; Family First; One Nation; LDP; Nationals; CEC; NCPP.

CONSERVATIVES FOR CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENT: SOL; CCC; Carers; Democrats; Family First; WWW; CDP; One Nation; NCPP; DLP; LDP; Liberal; Nationals; Greens; Labor; CEC; Campbell; SA.

LIBERTY AND DEMOCRACY PARTY: CCE; NCPP; CEC; DLP; Carers; WWW; SOL; CCC; Family First; One Nation; CDP; Campbell; SA; Democrats; Nationals; Labor; Liberal; Greens.

GREENS: WWW; SA; Carers; CCC; SOL; Democrats; Labor; CCE; Nationals; CEC; One Nation; NCPP; DLP; CDP; Family First; Campbell; Liberal.

NOTE: Feel free to use this thread for general discussion.

COMMUNITY SERVICE NOTICE: Larvatus Prodeo is operating at a new address while technical problems are ironed out.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

154 comments on “Wheel of fortune: episode two”

Comments Page 1 of 4
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  1. Climate Change Coalition is going to climate change deniers! These people should be run out of town. Like Family First their name actually doesn’t mean anything…

  2. Mackerras is predicting a five-seat loss to the Coalition (NSW, Vic, SA, Tas, ACT), higher than any other prediction I have seen. He is clearly staking his whole reputation on a predicting a major Coalition rout, and he’s going to look rather silly if it doesn’t happen. I wonder if he has not become rather bitter and twisted about the Coalition in recent years and whether this is influencing his judgement.

  3. I must be going blind. Can’t see the Labor preferences. Where are the shooters and fishers? Incidentally are the fishers the recreational types or commercial interests? Plenty of red **cks though. No rich white males party either. Too busy winning Melbourne Cups.

  4. I think Tucker has a very solid chance, she managed 16% of the vote last time and the ALP’s vote will be up considerably on 2004 you’d think, which may help her get across the line in front of the Lib.

    However Rudd’s announcement of a “razor gang” to pair down the federal public service may be enough to get Humphries over the line again.

  5. I’d throw Qld in, 3 labor 2 lib and anyone but Boswell and labor for the third.

    Libs are a good chance to lose in the ACT.

    3 reasons Humphires, Humphries and Humhpries

    also

    Humphries forced showing of foetuses to women seeking a termination.

    Humphries saying that the depression prepared people for life on the pension, bit like Hockey and Howard sayin Work Choices prepares you for life on the pension.

    And apparently ACT has a public holiday today,why I don’t know, but Humphries wants to abolish it. Great move just before an election, get rid of a of a public holiday.

  6. 177
    Peter K Says:
    I think Mackerras is generally right. Given the 2PP figures for SA, TAS & NSW, it seems hard to believe the Libs won’t be losing a seat in each. My quibble with his predictions is that he seems to be overestimating the Greens, when the evidence shows the minors vote falling. Can I be indulged to repost my predictions from Sunday?

    Tas: ALP 3, Lib 2, GRN 1
    In SA, ditto but with Mr X instead of GRN. If Mr X hadn’t entered, the last seat would have been between the 3rd Lib and GRN, with GRN favoured.
    WA and Qld should be 3 to each of the majors, with the coalition strong enough to make 3 quotas.
    ACT: Extremely close three way fight for the 2nd seat betwwen Lib, ALP & GRN. I think the ALP might just get there to make it 2-0. Suprised the Libs didn’t ensure the CDP nominated as it could make a difference.
    NSW & Vic will see ALP 3 & Lib 2, with the final spot between Lib & GRN. I think these results will be close, but I’ll give Vic to the Greens & NSW to the 3rd Lib…Fred Nile’s preferences just getting Maryse Payne accross the line…interesting.

    All up that makes
    ALP 21, LNP 16, GRN 2, Mr X 1.
    Therefore the new senate as ALP 35, LNP 35, GRN 4, FF 1, Mr X 1.

  7. I love Paul Bongiorno (spelling??) on the 10 news he showed Howard giggling smarmy pot shot about Rudd backing Maybe Better (“hould’ve done me-too”), then he states that Rudd changed his bet and backed Efficient. He ended the story with “who’s laughing now!”

  8. Rudd backs Melbourne Cup winner – won $216.50 or something. Good.

    Adam. This is just gut feeling and has probably been said before, but I reckon the voters resent Howard’s misuse of the Senate – not only Workchoices – but on a range of icky measures. A lesson learnt and this election might just be the turning point. Too much power to one side of politics.

    General: What is an RSS feed and does it turn beastly and eat one’s bandwidth? (We are all concerned about William’s bandwidth – that crikey place is awful, too cluttered, IMO – but I’m also concerned about me own. This is too addictive! Is an RSS feed more bandwidth-friendly than just refresh? S’cuse ignorance.)

  9. Glaring omission from preference ticket lists now rectified. Kevin, no fishing/shooters parties are running in WA – or if they are they’re running under generic group name tickets, in which case I’ve ignored them. Good news is at hand for those who don’t like the Crikey layout.

  10. 14 Arbie Jay

    I stand convinced, anyone who seeks to abolish a public holiday is clearly ‘unastrayan’ and needs to be turfed out.

    Also after quick glance at the group tickets in ACT, there are no preferences on offer for the Libs.

    Seems Tucker should win on ALP’s >33%.

  11. The ACT has a more politically-aware population than most and would have a reasonable number of Liberal supporters who nevertheless don’t think it’s in the interests of good government for one party to control the Senate (and who know that a Liberal loss in the ACT is the quickest way to stop one party from controlling the Senate). I would therefore expect that a reasonable number of people would vote Liberal in the House and Green in the Senate for this specific reason – exactly how many is hard to tell, but I reckon 5% isn’t a bad guess. One could definitely imagine a lot of retired old-style public servants thinking this way.

  12. I’ve plugged Climate Change Coalition into a few of the calculators. They seem to have done very well in preference harvesting. If you give them a reasonable vote of about 2.5% in WA or NSW and do a bit of reasonable fiddling with the Coalition and Labor votes they end up taking seats off Labor or Greens in these 2 States.

    Prediction 1 CCC Senator possibly from WA.

    BTW William have you given up on Crikey or do we need to get our cheque books out still?

  13. In earlier threads there was some discussion on the ABC and attributes relating to editorial policy, depth and content. On this theme – you may be interested to know that a thread titled “ABC Coverage Disappointing” appeared a couple days ago on the ABC News Online Forum. While the thread itself has not generated anything terribly interesting – it is worth noting that the ABC are themselves willing to accept critical review in the public domain.

    http://www2b.abc.net.au/tmb/Client/Message.aspx?b=35&m=1371&ps=20&dm=2

  14. William

    What is the good news? The Crikey place is simply – cluttered. Your layout is clear – it’s the difference between pro subs and tabloid kiddies. This place has an over-arching advantage – well-chosen typography and a clear layout. In other words, the layout and typeface don’t interfere with the message. Cheers.

  15. RE ACT polling

    There was this in the GG about 6 weeks ago:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22650608-12339,00.html

    [According to the latest Morgan Poll, the Coalition is polling at 24.35 per cent in the ACT – well short of the quota of 33 per cent it needs to win the seat. The Greens are getting their strongest poll results in the country in the ACT, with 17.09 per cent of people saying they would like to vote for them. With ALP preferences, the Greens would easily win the seat.]

    Getup are running a campaign here – ‘Save our Senate’. More of their posters about than any other party.

  16. I have assumed that the flow of first preference voting in the Senate comes back to Labor with the Greens picking up 2 plus % of the primary vote in each state, however, I still only see the following.

    The Greens picking up Senate seats in WA and TAS, Family First picking up a seat in Qld and Labor picking up 6 seats nationally.

    The Democrats are extinct (no surprises there).

    The new Senate next year would be;
    Coalition 36
    Labor 34
    Greens 4
    Family First 2

  17. The public holiday in the ACT today is the replacement holiday for the Union Picnic day, and was chosen for the obvious reason that productivity could only further be lowered by not turning up at all on cup day. The chamber of commerce, Humphries and the usual suspects have whinged non stop for weeks about the holiday. I asked the carpenter who came to do some work on my deck this morning what he thought about it all. That was when he discovered it was a holiday!

    Re Kerry Tucker. An ALP contact of mine assures me that the second Senate seat is a two way race between the ALP and the Greens, Greens slightly favoured. Not sure how much credence to put in that info.

    As far as I know, no polling has been done in the ACT. Major parties would not bother wasting their money and the Canberra Times would find it hard to get enthusiastic over a poll which could well have the ALP pushing towards 70%.

    The ALP has been sending out desultory info packages to my newly enrolled daughter and her friends, the Libs seem to have completely surrendered, although there has been a Humphries mailout once since he has to pay his own way. All the effort around here is concentrated on Eden Monaro. There the ALP seems to a generally non commercial TV watcher to be ahead on ad numbers.

  18. I think there’s a fair chance the Greens will get up in the ACT Senate, and knock Humphries off.

    One point to note is that they’ve had Greens in their ACT Assembly for some time, and seem to be comfortable with them as a mainstream party. Also, the drought is a big issue in Canberra, and the population there has always been very environmentally-conscious (AB demographic, middle-class professionals, good education system).

    The public service has not forgotten Howard’s p.s job cuts (Fightback that dare not speak its name), and also doesn’t like doing Howard’s dirty work in departments like Centrelink and Immigration.

    As for Mackerras, he’s made wild predictions before, and been blatantly wrong, but it doesn’t seem to worry him. He’s also prepared to make predictions well out from an election, which I think is a bit silly for a serious political analyst, which he claims to be. But at least he doesn’t sit on the fence. And he’s very entertaining.

  19. I actually think the ACT is one of the Greens’ best prospects. I’m more optimistic about the ACT than about NSW.

    Have others had a look at the LDP in NSW? I’ve seen scenarios where, on 0.5% primary, they manage to leapfrog a number of parties and beat the Greens and Marise Payne to the final spot.

  20. This may be a minor thing, but photos/headlines of Kevin Rudd with a winning bet on the Melbourne Cup are probably worth a tonne of positive editorials.

    Petty, but possibly true!

  21. Dear William
    I check in on your website everyday – it is unique and stimulating, and I love the hurly-burly of all the responses. Please don’t go to Crikey – it’s not the same. Your website is much better because it is not about making profits – it is about people who take a genuine interest in the intricacies of te Australian electoral system. If you take your discussions to a site where people have to pay we will all be the poorer for it.

    Laura

  22. hmmm… yet another state where the Climate Change Coalition is preferencing climate change sceptics AND ONE NATION (!) ahead of the Greens. What happened to them being a one-issue party?

    I notice FF have preferenced the pro-euthanasia LDP once again. Would love to be a fly on the wall at their next election campaign meeting.

    Mind you, given how well they’ve done in preference deals, perhaps it’s time to ask the CCC candidates what they would do if they got BOP, and what they think about any of the other issues facing the country. “We will give our elected MPs a conscience vote on all other matters that come before the Parliament” just doesn’t cut it.

  23. S

    Too true, too true. It’s the giblets that count. Howard was so smart today picking the name of Keating’s favourite composer, then he crowed – too early as it turned out. Rudd’s nag was scratched, so he whipped in and put 10 oxfords on the nose! Bloody bewdy! Petty. Yes. Grinners are winners, so it goes.

    Now he needs to go out somewhere and declare: “Hey! I had a win at the races. It’s my shout. For everyone …”

  24. Laura, nobody will have to pay. Comments will not require registration, they will be published instantly, they will be numbered, they will appear in chronological order, and there will be RSS feeds for all. It will be a veritable Big Rock Candy Mountain of psephological blogging.

  25. Ok, for the sake of the exercise, let us assume that a liberal is converted to a green in the ACT. And lets also assume that Mr X. also knocks off a liberal.

    We need one more seat.

    Which state is the most likely, NSW, VIC, or TAS?

    -moo

  26. Well out of this election I reckon two historical things could happen:

    1: [Dis-]Hon. John Howard, PM, looses his seat. By doing so, he is only the second PM in Australian History to loose his seat while seeking re-election as PM. This everyone seems to have a fair reckoning will happen. But what about no2…

    2: A double dissolution or sacking of Hon. Kevin Rudd’s Government [since we assume it’s highly likely he gets in], something that would make him the second PM to be sacked by the GG. Although this would be very unlikely to happen, follow my method for madness.
    A: The Liberal/Nat/CLP have a majority in the Senate and that term
    not expire until 30th June 2008.
    B: The budget is delivered around May-June by the Govt of the day
    and the bill of supply needs to pass both houses. [For memory I
    know NSW’s Upper House can’t block supply.]
    I haven’t heard any discussion on this, unless I’m completely barking up the wrong tree, but it seems to be turburlent times ahead. All this before the supposed Greens BOP in the Senta to take over from 1st July 2008.

    [Unless of course, Rudd just waits out until July 2008. Would the Liberals attempt such a daring move by being out of power in any State or Fed Govt in Australia? It might seem desperation and could backfire big time. If it did backfire, it would certainly by felt in the ACT with re-election for the Territory Govt due in 2008.]

  27. On that note actually… what about WorkChoices? Surely the Liberals would keep blocking it until July 2008. No sense in a change of heart?

    Also, how many by-elections would everyone reckon would happen should Labor win?

    Bennelong -JWH [if he is re-elected but looses Govt]
    North Sydney- Joe Hockey – would he stay around? Since Labor are going to change WorkChoices completely… no point in him staying longer?

    And if JWH resigns… would we possibly see…
    Berowra – Phillip Ruddock – could follow suit being the current longest serving Parliamentarian in the Federal Arena [ Not in Aus – that belongs to the SA MP for Sturt.] Or would Gramps retire at the next General Election? I guess it would depend on pressue in the Liberal Party to inject new blood. If Malcom lost Wentworth, would they parachute him in here?

    Any ideas?

  28. josh- i was more seeing who would have ideas as to what would happen – ie would the Liberals actually block supply or let it through? just floating ideas atm that havent seem to be discussed as much

  29. Politics_Obsessed Says:
    A: The Liberal/Nat/CLP have a majority in the Senate and that term
    not expire until 30th June 2008.

    You then have to wait and see which Senators and from which party get elected.

    If the Coalition lose a Senate seat in the ACT,which is quite likely,the Govt lose the BoP in the Senate,as the ACT Senator takes their place straight away.

    I doubt the Coalition will have the BoP after July when the newly elected Senators take their place. I think the Minors will gain the BoP.

  30. oh thanks sonedo forgot about that little hiccup – im just chucking out various scenarios to here more discussion and though on them

    madcow – its a scary thought isnt it! And everyone thought the Greens were bad. Mind you, Geoff Gallop gives them a mixed reaction to them. [Re: Greens holding upper house balance in WA – mentioned in an article today.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/06/2082603.htm?site=elections/federal/2007

  31. Actually Sonedo – I just paused to think… if the Coalition have exactly half the amount of Senate [ie NT CLP is re-election – but green or alp beat humpries/LP in ACT]… wouldn’t that still block bills? If so, then my situation still arises.

  32. @S47 – lets just hope then that the FF senator isnt from act lol 😛 [Since they’re infamous for porn and tried the pink dollar last year]

  33. If we assume that the Libs are going to lose a seat in SA to Xenophon (almost certain) and a seat in the ACT to either Labor or the Greens (which seems to be a 50-50 prospect), the Coalition needs to lose one more seat for the Labor-Greens combo to have a majority. Tasmania seems to be the most likely bet. Brown can get a quota (say 15%) and Labor can get three quotas (44%) making a total of 59%, leaving 41% for the Libs, which gets them two seats. That seems doable, though far from certain.

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