To keep things ticking over until Newspoll, I hereby present an ad for Labor’s Stirling candidate Peter Tinley which just went to air during the Channel Nine news in Perth.
UPDATE: In the interests of political balance, please also enjoy this romantic sunset stroll along Scarborough Beach with Liberal member Michael Keenan.
Interesting poll. Libs won’t be too unhappy with that, given that they might be able to win with 48 TPP.
Would be fascinating at this stage to have some real indication of the magnitude of the don’t knows.
Now Howie needs to bring out a good child care and housing policy to dampen out a possible rate rise and its a 50/50 election hopefully.
Shannas article shall be a hoot tomorrow.
Title:
‘The Man of Steel back in the game”
Newspoll has to follow the trend and move back a point or so to Labor
My pick is 55/45
I think the Garrett issues will only factor in during the last week, when those who haven’t made up thier minds yet are pushed into the L-Np corner
Just a thought, but YouTube is in the USA so maybe it doesn’t have to be authorised. It is not in our country.
If the primaries are 47 / 42, that means 11% for everyone else. You’d think 6% of that is the Greens, whose prefs will go 80-90% to Labor. That gets Labor to 51.8 to 52.4%. If we split the remaining 5% 50/50, we get a range if 54.3 to 54.9% Anyone want to argue with that?
Are the punters so stupid to contemplate the libs. The most corrupt narrow minded government in this country’s history. Mean spirited & hopeless
Dyno – I think they”ll need more than 48%
Damn, this Newspoll looks bad. Very disappointing as I was expecting 55/45 gain. I guess (hope?) after the interest rate rise (sadly it will be more pain for many of us) on Wednesday the next poll will be bad news for the coalition. It is all due to Crickey!
#104 Newspoll obviously. Sounds about right to me though.
Adam, the preferences look decidely dodgy. And Glen and Mr Squiggle, care to comment on today’s Galaxy that went in the opposite direction??
A-C i am allowed to be happy we didn’t go further behind, and i’ve admitted on these figures we’d get pumped but the good thing about this poll is that A) the Coalition could come back and win and B) if we do lose it won’t be a massive landslide with 90+ Labor seats.
But you guys Newspoll probably wanted this poll to reflect its marginal seat poll conducted earlier.
The Völkischer Beobachter will be a must read tomorrow as will the Hun.
Now where is Nostro and Steven normally they are here the instance the Coalition makes up ground in a poll????
New thread up
Can someone clarify? Is this a national poll, like most Newspolls, or is it, in fact, a poll of 18 key marginals?
If it’s a poll of marginals, it’s enormously significant. It would also explain why the leaders have spent a fair bit of time in Victoria.
I just put the swings through Antony Green’s calculator, and it gives Labor victory by 20 seats – without even counting seats they could gain in WA, NT and Tas.
“I used to subscribe to Crikey, and got fed up (mainly with Christian Kerr and his pathological loathing of environmentalists).”
I did the same. I subscribed and also got fed up with Christian Kerr, amongst other things, and cancelled. I haven’t been back, but from what you say, things probably haven’t improved.
Regarding Newspoll, well, this result will certainly have the Shanahans of this world wetting themselves with fantasies of Howard winning the election. There is no doubt that Howard has gained a little extra support, but it is only a little, and mainly from the undecideds or minors. The government was generally around 39-40 for much of the year, but now sitting at 41-42 for the past couple of weeks.
I do wish Labor would ramp things up a bit though. We presume they will as we get into the home straight, but will they? Where is all the advertising?
[Adam, the preferences look decidely dodgy. And Glen and Mr Squiggle, care to comment on today’s Galaxy that went in the opposite direction??]
Is Newspoll still using the 2004 preference distribution, or are they actually asking now?
I’m sorry, but are some of you out there saying 47/42 on primaries is a boost for the Government?
Please listen to Adam. A voice of reason amidst the void.
Michael, it won’t happen. No worries there. The numbers here are the same as those on Galaxy. Probably reflecting Garrett’s stuffup more than Abbott’s as it came afterwords at the end of the week. Point being this though. 53% to 47% 2pp means that Howard has to claw the difference back from somewhere. It isn’t going to come from Labor as their primary has been rock solid all year long. If he peels votes off of anywhere, it will be from secondary parties and undecideds. I find it hard to believe that enough secondary parties nationwide will be giving their votes to the Libs. Perhaps more important – Antony said over the weekend that the undecideds traditionally break 2 to 1 in favor of the current polling trend. That means that of the undecideds, Rudd will get more of those than will Howard. Rudd is already ahead.
I trust Antony’s analysis of previous elections :):) Go to sleep, I hope you feel a little safer now :).
Nothing on Crikey. Crikey what’s happening. Why?????
“79 Marktwain Says:
November 5th, 2007 at 9:55 pm
Dennis has found much comfort in the Pref PM vote. One percentage point a week and they have it won, he opines.”
When Shamaham comes out with this nonsense, he needs to be asked whether he actually believes Howard can make up one point a week, and if not, then what exactly is his point?
His statement in itself is hardly controversial. And I think most of us still believe that you don’t rule anyone out until all the votes are counted.
But the problem with Shamaham is that he passes these hypotheticals off as political insight. He needs to be told to put aside his preference for Howard (which I have no problem with), his understandable cautiousness in calling an election when we’re so far out from polling day (ditto), and simply asked – you’re a political commentator; on what you’ve seen on the ground, and from your reading of the campaign, who do you think is going to win? Or: Yes, if Howard makes up a point a week, he’s there – so is he going to do so?
Otherwise, he’s just another pub bore, who’se fraudulently passing himself off as an expert.
Curious!
Who doesn’t live near the beach?
Who can’t go for a walk along the beach after work?
Who doesn’t want the best for Australia and ALL Australians?
Here’s some advice for Keenan.
VOTE 1 LABOR
From am experience I had today I get the impression that most swinging voters have not made up their mind yet. If this is the case can we trust the polls to give an accurate result. What are peoples thoughts?
I hope you are right Julie!
[Otherwise, he’s just another pub bore, who’se fraudulently passing himself off as an expert.]
He is an opinion columnist who is allowed to report news articles.
The usual experience with minor preferences is a 60:40 split. I would have tought LAbor could rely on 6.6% from the minor parties. I guess there must be some rounding of the primaries involved. Is the sample 46.7 or 47.4? Without the data, it is not possible to really know what the 2PP position is, but i would say it is between 53.3 and 54.0%, but it is most unlikely to be less than 53% – or so I have convinced myself…
This is how the Australian has reported it. Whats the “march back to poll parity” thing? Perhaps we really are in Nazi Germany!
“THE Coalition has continued its march back toward poll parity with the latest Newspoll showing the government now trailing by just six per cent in the two party preferred stakes.”
Preference flows seem quite low – are the under-sampling Greens again?
Looking at their previous charts this would be the lowest preference flow to Labor so far. The lowest since August has been 61.5%
A low 60% preference flow would still be 53.6/46.4
A more reasonable 62% flow would be 53.8/46.2
Odd that they decided to round it down.
What the story with the preference flow?? ALP getting 6 and LNP 5 seems out of whack with previous polls. Only thing i can think of is the Green vote dropping out big time and either the Libs or the Right Wing Nutters Parties picking it up.
Looking at adam’s graphs, I see a fall of 1% or so.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if that’s real.
I still want to see Labor’s ad campaign.
-moo
Since early Oct that is
[“THE Coalition has continued its march back toward poll parity with the latest Newspoll showing the government now trailing by just six per cent in the two party preferred stakes.”]
“Toward polling parity” seems to mean they are only going to lose 22 seats.
I can’t believe Howard takes credit for good economic news but blames other factors for bad figures. Typical “it wasn’t me sir it was Wiggins”
Agreed, VoterBoy. However, no one is going to ask hard questions of Dennis as he’s just a journo and therefore unimportant. If people don’t like what he says, they don’t need to listen.
I think the man’s a f#ckhead, but I’ll still keep reading him, as will most other people on this blog, despite their protestations to the contrary. Funny that – I rarely read The Oz until I started reading this blog. My liver and my brain have taken a battering.
It is probably unwise to read much into newspoll. The results could easily be being stirred round by the forces of evil. I wonder if AC Nielson have any NSW-only results. That would be a good basis for comparison.
Something to remember with preference flow. At the last couple of elections Labor primary vote has been low, which means that a lot of Labor voters were giving their vote to a third party then preferenced Labor. This time Labor is popular and has a strong primary vote. So less Labor voters are voting for a third party before Labor which mean less of the remaining preferences should flow to Labor because they already have the vote.
In September 14/16 the minor parties were Greens 4 Other 8 Total = 12%
They applied the prefernce flow in that poll 8/12 to Labor ie. 66.6% Even with the lower Green vote. That would make this poll: 54.3/45.7
This poll with 11% minors should be Greens 5 Others 6 to which [with the same breakdown] they previously applied a prefernce flow of 63.6% to Labor.
Which would make this poll 54/46
In anycase if they were going to use a basic minimum flow and round it off they should have reported this poll: 54/46 … and all within moe.
Good point Stephen #134. However, I do think most of the polls are still underestimating the Greens vote, particularly from first-time voters.
Maybe it’s good, maybe ppl will find that the Liobs are clawing backa nd that will scare them straight. Can anyone seriously imagine these creeps getting back in? As in what it willl be like? YUCK.
[In anycase if they were going to use a basic minimum flow and round it off they should have reported this poll: 54/46 … and all within moe.]
It seems dumb for them to change their allocation of preference system now, because that makes it impossible to accurately compare this to previous polls.
However, at a more general level, I still don’t think it is bad for the media to be saying how close things are getting, because that will make some people more likely to stick with Labor on election day.
I say this because if Labor get a primary vote of 47% on election day, I can’t see how they can lose. That would equate to a 9.6% primary vote swing compared to 2004.
Stephen, you have a point, but the Green vote will still favour Labor strongly. There will be no detectable protest vote, but what green vote there is should strongly favour Labor. Considering that newspoll consistently under-reports the Green vote, it is surprising that the non-Green micro-parties register at all in a newspoll sample. This suggests the results are unreliable.
I think confirmation is called for…
Gerr,
Why is your blog called Howard Legacy? The name will lose it meaning if Labor wins. lol.
@106 Shaboh.
Yes.
@140
Just like to be round to put some nails in a certain coffin…..Howard’s legacy needs to be remembered, win lose or draw, Howard needs to be remembered as the dirty dark stain that he is. The whole blog will close the day after the election. Hopefully on a high note.
Who’s being interviewed on Lateline?
Hitler
Chalk and cheese.
Peter Tinely with the “who I am and what I’m gonna do” thing and Michael Keenan with a “who I am”.
That’s nice, Mick, but what the bloody hell are you going to do if re-elected? Sit on the beach and do the pizza and Chardy number with your friends and family?
Dontcha think it might be a good idea to remind people of why they ought to vote for you, I mean apart from the fact that you’re a good bloke who likes the beach?
These ads ought to be set for a year 11 clear thinking exercise.
In their heart of hearts, I really don’t think even Liberal supporters or the editors of the Australian (just maybe Jabba the Ackerman) want Howard returned….it’s like placing a rotting carcass at your dinner table and it not having the decency to leave.
@96 Michael (married to the Pom)
If Howard wins can you come back in a fleet of spitfires and straff the people in the marginals for what they will have inflicted upon us and the rest of the free world? They very deserve it.
Keenan knows people are already familiar with what he stands for, so he saw this as an opportunity to show more of what he thinks personally. Tinley took the more typical approach. Both are fine.
Looking at Newspoll, AC Neilsen I doubt a little that Labor’s primary has dropped from 48. I also doubt a little the LNP is at 42. Hmm… ALP 48 LNP 41 Green 5 Other 6 – we are probably still quite close to 55/45. In my opinion.
The temporary AC Neilsen narrowing was also at the expense of minors.
With Labor’s primary seemingly stuck at 47/48 regardless, the LNP can pick up only so much from minor parties before it runs out of fuel and, has to take back Labor primary. And it looks it has run out of fuel in Newspoll’s minor parties.
Looking at the Newspoll history it is very hard to see ‘Greens’ under 5% and ‘Others’ under 6% – Total of 11% of which 7% will go to Labor. So I gather the LNP has run out places to find primary votes except Labor.
Which really means the LNP has get Labor’s primary down to 44% to have a chance. The problem with that also is that any deserting Labor primary may go straight to the Greens. Boosting Greens to 8% from Labor still gives Labor a TPP 53%
The LNP needs to get the Labor primary down by about 4% [520,000 people] to have a shot.
ALP 44/44 Minors 12% = ALP 51.6/48.4
ALP 43/44 Minors 13% = ALP 51.3/48.7
ALP 44/45 Minors 11% = ALP 51/49
ALP 44/46 Minors 10% = ALP 50/50
And so on….
The trouble with Keenan’s ad is, well, it works. If you play warm gushy music, show nice things and nice people, Average Voter thinks, ooh, this guy seems all right – I think I’ll vote for him. At least that was the feeling I got. Not that I’d ever vote for Howard & Co.