Labor Stirling ad

To keep things ticking over until Newspoll, I hereby present an ad for Labor’s Stirling candidate Peter Tinley which just went to air during the Channel Nine news in Perth.

UPDATE: In the interests of political balance, please also enjoy this romantic sunset stroll along Scarborough Beach with Liberal member Michael Keenan.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

157 comments on “Labor Stirling ad”

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  1. Sky’s ticker tape is saying the news will be out ‘within half an hour’.

    Dennis the S is on, by the way, as is Janet Albuuuurkson. Dennis’ eyes are as bulbous as ever (pisspot!) and Janet’s ‘do makes her look as if she has been electrocuted.

  2. Pancho i get nervous with every poll release since everyone since last year has been terrible for the Tories. I just hope it’s still 54-46 or even 53-47 ‘Garrett-gate’ perhaps having an impact.

    Still Pancho remember, “Serenity Now, Insanity Later”.

  3. Marktwain, wishful thinking I’m afraid. Never mind, on 25 November they’ll both be popped into indifinite detention under the Prevention of Bullshit Act 2008 (which will have retrospective effect so it will be legal).

  4. Imre Salaciousinsky is on Sky too. His tan-in-a-can is not as impressive as Dennis and Janet’s.

    It’s surprising how rational they all sound on the telly. Perhaps it’s the keyboard that turns them into ravenous hordes?

    (Bleep that – Dennis has just channelled the Liberal Party Handbook.)

  5. Tinley’s ad is straight down the line: true-blue Aussie man of purpose and man of action. There’s a clear association with Rudd and a tap into the vein of dissatisfaction with Howard. I think this will go well in Stirling.

    The Keenan ad is a clayton’s: an appeal for support on the strength of where he comes from rather than he proposes to do and where he wants to go. There’s almost no political content at all. it begs the question: why should you vote for Keenan? Warm and fuzzy, but will it work?

  6. Both those ads for Stirling are so POSITIVE! They must be part of a different campaign to the one I’ve been following.

    Surely there must have been some union bosses lurking somewhere…on the beach? Behind the meat in the butcher’s?

    I thought it was a bit low-rent that Keenan invited friends over, and then served them pizza! A step up from Hungry Jack’s, I suppose.

  7. Coalition 42% primary ALP 47% primary
    2pp 53 – 47%
    PPM 47% Rudd 43% Howard

    Seems to mirror Galaxy I think …… Guess Garrett and Abbott pretty much cancelled each other out

  8. Hey Glen, did you see the ABC news tonight with JWH doing a meet and greet with a local member? The Local seemed to want to discuss having a GST on all food as being the fairest thing they could do. JWH didnt look real happy.

    Do you thing this lets the cat out of the bag with regard to the LNP’s plans for after the election? They do have form in this regard. Maybe that is how they are going to recoup the cost of their tax cuts??

  9. Still we see Labor at a solid as a rock 47%

    But big talk of the narrowing on Fox News. General agreement that the coalition can still win.

  10. So that means the Coalition gets what 5% extra with preferences and Labor gets 6% extra on preferences.

    Still the primary of the ALP is high, so i wouldn’t be worrying.
    Still at least the Coalition’s primary is in the 40s ie giving us a sniff of victory!

    I am sure we will see Nostro and Steve soon you guys watch out lol!

  11. Dennis has found much comfort in the Pref PM vote. One percentage point a week and they have it won, he opines.

    The man’s a f#ckhead. And I’m a journo!

  12. #49 Mildly Interested of Wannon…yes, someone else raised that table in the Oz earlier tonight. I ask the question – if that isn’t a new Newspoll, what on earth is it?

    It shows astonishing swings since the last election in 18 marginal seats. If it’s true, it puts the kybosh on any suggestion that the swings are contained to blue ribbon Lib or Labor heartland seats. Check the swing in Qld!

  13. [SKy News program from 9:30pm to 10:00pm has a breaking news byline, while newspoll results are not out YET, they WILL be by 10pm.

    Turn on the telly folks …… (if the news was good for coalition, you would think that they would have led the program with the numbers)]

    Julie – did they give you the numbers?

  14. Imacca lol that was funny wasn’t it Howard said something and then said no no no lol how hilarious. Now we know Rudd is a stunt puller buying mangos and handing them out, then having the candidate go up to an Asian lady asking her who she’ll vote for and she hasnt made up her mind and then he says just say Labor lol!

    Still he was a local MP, Garrett could be a minister.

    Well once Fox News writes off Howie then you can start celebrating the end of Howard but obviously the Conservatives in the US still think the Man of Steel can win.

    Darn unless it gets to 52-48 then you should be worrying, 53-47 is a reverse landslide win from 2004, but ill take 53-47 over 56 or 55 to 44 or 45 anyday.

  15. Newspoll is such a crock this year.

    News Limited are desperate.

    Every newspoll in the last 2 months has been tailored for a reason.

    Remember Shamaham told us “we know newspoll because we OWN it”.

    all the polling companies will be close on the day of the election to maintain credability but Newspoll lately has been an absolute beat-up crock of shite.

  16. 82,

    See posts 64 and 69 ….. no change, within the MOE, but Sky are crowing about it as it is a minute change backwards to the coalition. (keeping my comments short, am trying to get used to the 250 char limit in the new site)

  17. shaboh: “Crikey no good me want to stay here”

    Me too.

    I used to subscribe to Crikey, and got fed up (mainly with Christian Kerr and his pathological loathing of environmentalists). I recently returned as a squatter to see if things had improved, with a view to resubscribing, but they haven’t so I didn’t.

    Once William moves over there I’ll just wait till he returns to this blog. And if he doesn’t? Well, bye, William. It’s been nice.

  18. Newspolls generally reflect the end of week details – the Garrett thing happened then, so it is not totally surprising.

    I like ACN better (but it’s newspoll’s that get the media’s attention)

    How will this play though on Melbourne Cup Day?

    Will the story survive the interest rate rise?

  19. “Howard is clawing back ground” – that’s the headline on Sky news.

    Despite all of my previous protestations, I’m beginning to come around to youse lot and your views on the thorough silliness of Sky.

  20. Boll (73) You make a good point on the preferences. On the face of it, it seems like 54/46 would be closer to the mark.

    It will be interesting to hear from one of the gurus on the site – Adam, Possum, Alan h etc – about that. I think we can safely say, it would at least be 53.5/46.5.

  21. I like my news 24/7 🙂 so wish that Sky had some competition. Over in the USA, we had a choice. You could go to Fox or to CNN. You couldn’t pay me to watch Fox news when I lived in the USA. Here, if you want news outside of the normal program or news bulletin hours you have to suffer Sky News 🙁

  22. Well this is a good birthday present for me! 🙂

    If it is true, ill enjoy buying the Völkischer Beobachter tomorrow.

    Shall be a good day for Glen, lots of serenity 🙂

  23. This is not good. Howard’s gunna win.
    The country will be intolerable. Can your imagine the sanctimony?
    Thanks God my partner’s English – at least I can escape.

  24. Glen, don’t celebrate this. 53-47 is still a trouncing. I’d save it for election night. On the off chance Howard wins, it’ll be very sweet.

  25. Am wondering about the polls At this point the pollsters would all
    a) want the ALP to win – otherwise it looks like they have no idea what they are doing; or
    b) be the firs twon to show the so-called movement to the Libs.

    So this is a 1% diff since last time? That’d be in the MoE?

    Still a month ago it was a 54-56 range, now it seems more like 53-55. Wouldn’t want it to get any tighter.

    The ALP shouldn’t panic. Galaxy and ACN are better indicators, and any “momentum” this has will be slaughtered by the RBA.

  26. #91 Just from memory, most recent Galaxy had primaries at 45/42, 2PP at 54/46. Seems a little strange that this Newspoll, ALP primary is 2 points higher, 2PP 1 point lower.

    Am I right in saying Galaxy`s methodology is based on 2004 preference flow, Newspoll`s on stated preference for a major party?

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