Senate tickets revealed

Group voting tickets for the Senate have now been unveiled by the Australian Electoral Commission. I’ll get stuck into these after I’ve finished a few errands.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

341 thoughts on “Senate tickets revealed”

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  4. Chris C: 6 out of 6 losses – know that feeling!

    re GVT analysis – Antony G – would you like to speculate (as I know you never predict) on likely outcomes, now that you have your personal calculator handy?

  6. I know, I thought she’d danced off the scene ages ago but I think its amazing for this party to put her in front of anyone else really.
    In Vic there preferencing one nation, in Qld ON is placed ahead and Pauline ahead of labor, In WA ON is ahead of both, same in SA and tasmania. I am absolutly dumfounded from this. Others will say I shouldn’t have been but I thought they would be the third foce taking over from the dem’s demise. looks like they are drastically more extreemist than I pegged them to be.

  8. Rancid old recycled pork – hmmm, they call that proscuitto in Lane Cove.

    When I grew up amongst the Boganvillias in Bananaland, on the other hand, they called it ‘nouvelle cuisine’.

  9. Has anyone noticed the flows in Tasmania? Groups A, (WWW) D (ALP), G, and H go directly to the Greens (in fact, G & H go to Wilkie ahead of Brown), with the LDP going to Wilkie ahead of ALP & Libs. Only FFP, DLP & CEC go to Libs, then ALP, with the Greens last. Is this a preferencing strategy based upon some of that polling showing the Greens on 20-25% in the Senate in Tas?? If Brown is elected with an over-quota of 6%+, then Wilkie could be sitting on 7-10%. Interesting scenario for Tas, especially if the ALP repeats a 46-50% primary.

    I also note that the Libs go to the Greens ahead of the ALP nationally – I am assuming to try and deny the ALP a majority if the worst does come to pass – could be interesting if the ALP vote holds to over 48% anywhere, although I don’t think it will (except the ACT, but thats a different ball-game!). I wonder if the libs will do this in the HoR’s too? Might make seats like Melbourne and Cunningham interesting, no?

  11. I call it a rehash of what gave them no budget bounce and it will have no effect now. The only way to stop the cycle is vote these clowns out of office. They treat everyone with contempt.

  12. Rowan

    After eleven years of shit from both sides of politics, do you think that this wouldn’t be the case?????

    You all think it’s all black and white, don’t you.

    Well let me inform you that the disenchantment of the people who have suffered at the hands of this so called prosperity will warm to this extremist concept.

    I repeat…Pauline who???

  13. Can some clear up for me why the senate will only chang ein July. I know the whole 6 year thing, but the HoR is notionally 3 years. What gives? Surely this is a quirk that needs fixing.

  14. Bad luck Chris but you seem to be about 26 races of any kind behind me … if ever I run elected unopposed would be nice please!!!!!!

  19. “Might make seats like Melbourne and Cunningham interesting, no?”

    Nothing can make the Cunningham contest interesting. Forget the past, Wollongong ain’t Greens territory, and won’t be until the Libs are in power and the ALP have another by-election under a leader as bad as Simon Crean. Organ will finish third like he did in 2004 and his preferences will easily re-elect Sharon Bird.

  20. Grog – basically it is because the Senators are appointed fro a six year term starting in July each time. The Reps election dates vary due to the PMs abilitiy to call an election when he wants to. As the Reps term is 3yrs and the Senate 6 yrs, half the Senate is voted in with each Reps election but they don’t lineup. Te exception is when a PM calls a double dissolution election – in that case, all Senate positions are up for grabs and the sequence starts all over again.

  22. Scaper,

    That’s a bit harsh mate. If you or anyone on here didn’t have an attitued that our beliefs were both important and there was a need to change (or keep on changing) the world for the better, no one would be writing in this. No I don’t think its black and white. It is in grey’s but our actions do betray our beliefes and I thought that Family First held a concept that would exclude a racist set of values.

  27. I missed the cuttoff for the HOR predictions, so I’ll get in early for the senate..

    Tas: ALP 3, Lib 2, GRN 1
    In SA, ditto but with Mr X instead of GRN. If Mr X hadn’t entered, the last seat would have been between the 3rd Lib and GRN, with GRN favoured.
    WA and Qld should be 3 to each of the majors, with the coalition strong enough to make 3 quotas.
    ACT: Extremely close three way fight for the 2nd seat betwwen Lib, ALP & GRN. I think the ALP might just get there to make it 2-0. Suprised the Libs didn’t ensure the CDP nominated as it could make a difference.
    NSW & Vic will see ALP 3 & Lib 2, with the final spot between Lib & GRN. I think these results will be close, but I’ll give Vic to the Greens & NSW to the 3rd Lib…Fred Nile’s preferences just getting Maryse Payne accross the line…interesting.

    All up that makes
    ALP 21, LNP 16, GRN 2, Mr X 1.
    Therefore the new senate as ALP 35, LNP 35, GRN 4, FF 1, Mr X 1.

  28. The Coalition have preferenced both Labor and the Greens ahead of Hanson, so that would seem to sink any chance she might have had of preference-hopping her way to a quota.

  29. Hey Edward O: that still doesn’t make Ms Bird the most prefered – I watched those votes in 2004 at the nat tally room, and she was losing WORSE that in the by-election on the 2pp.

    Chris C: how right you are – makes it even worse for Don Morris.

  30. http://www.aec.gov.au/Elections/federal_elections/2007/candidates/index.htm

    The AEC has published the pdf but not the spreadsheet detailing the preferences… for some reason we have to wait until monday… WHY?

    From: wizard.callcentre@aec.gov.au
    Sent: Monday, October 22, 2007 7:47 AM
    Subject: Re: Election Timetable dates

    SEC=UNCLASSIFIED

    Thank you for your email.

    At the present time, the AEC is proposing to make available for download from the AEC website, an Excel (*.xls) data extract detailing the ticket votes that have been lodge. This file should be available from the download area of the AEC website, after Monday, 5 November.

    Regards,
    Communications and Information Strategy Branch
    Australian Electoral Commission
    National Office Canberra

  31. The Queensland previously announced pork respun. I’m just waiting with bated breath for the coalition policy launch where no doubt this rubbish will be dressed up as new pork and announced again in a different setting. Give us a break, how many times can this pork be dressed up and announced as something new. If it didn’t give a budget bounce when announced in May, why would it be any different now? The coalition is not only out of touch, it is deluding itself.

    http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/news/queensland/ringroad-system-planned-for-seq/2007/11/04/1194117866880.html

  32. They should be required to publish all registered HTV cards including HTV cards for the lower house that are planned to be distributed on the day.

    A common tactic is to register a number of variants of the preference registration and then just before voting day print and distribute the one that best suites the deals made and delivered.

    Above the line registered tickets split

    I think the idea of having two to three split tickets needs review. Why are the tickets equally distributed? Parties should be able to nominate the percentage break-down as opposed to just having an equal split.

  34. Stewart, that may be so, but the 2PP will be between Lab and Lib and Sharon Bird is preferred out of those two. I agree she might be vaguely vulnerable in Lab vs Green but it isn’t going to come to that.

  35. It was foolish of the AEC chose to include Organ in the indicative two candidate count in 2004. He was always going to struggle with a Liberal in the race.

  36. demboon 04 Nov 2007 at 4:20 pm

    I agree on preliminary analysis a 3/3 spilt (Lib-Nat/ALP) is the likely outcome in most states. Need to look at ACT more.

    Adam the ONWA is standing in the ungrouped column as I understand. They do not allow preferences.

    Also interesting is that the NP has nominated one candidate in Victoria and not opted for the tradition of over stating your party support by nominating multiple candidates. They save on deposits I guess.

    I need to look closer at te preference deals and without the data file (I can not be bothered extracting the data from the pdf will have to wait until tomorrow)… It is hard to determine the exact thresholds. The DLP vote is worth looking at. I would think the Greens once again will become the wasted quota… FF preferencing the libs is just working with the flow of the swing. This will make it harder for te Greens to realise any Liberal preferences. The question is what will the value of the ALP/Lib surplus be…

  37. MelbCity must be the only person Ukraine who knows or cares anything about Senate preferences in Australian elections. How are the braids coming along, MelbCity?

  38. You have to register your tickets to be able to hand them out. I am sure it the same in State and Local government. It was to avoid the scandal that arose from the Nunawading campaign and fake tickets being distributed on the night. I am sure this is the case as I recall tickets being withdrawn because they were not registered.

  39. Just saw 3 ads for Bob Baldwin in a single ad break. First I have seen but if they are going to saturate ad breaks like that, I thiunk that it will just annoy people. I’m over it already!

  40. “Molotovon 04 Nov 2007 at 4:43 pm
    Both Greens split tickets in Tasmainia are still putting Labor above the Liberals. I thought they weren’t going to do that this time in protest over the pulp mill, or did that change with the recent deal. They’ll look like running dogs if they never actually go threw with their threats not to preference Labor.

    ”

    Molotiv you idiot, the liberals initiated the pulp mill, so why should they pref lib before alp? they never said or suggested they wouldn’t pref alp before lib, its common knowledge they’d always pref libs at the bottom.. use a brain

  41. Stewart J,

    Anything that makes it harder for the Liberals is fine by me. I’m hoping that the DLP will preference Labor in McMillan too, as I have previously suggested.

  43. Rowen

    I understand where you are coming from here and I respect your opinion.

    However, I have a problem with the way people here allude to wanting change but not actually exercising their right to demand this.

    Hey, let’s gets down to the gristle here…I know that the collective long term vision of our so called leaders equates to a sixteen year old guide dog with hemorrhoids.

    I don’t pretend that I have no agenda and I will pursue this to the halls of parliament are ringing with some type of plan!!

    I don’t expect any help from anyone here on this as it is my quest…but can’t some of you guys get off your arses and start to put these SERVANTS on the spot and demand a vision of any type that goes past the electoral cycle.

    Maybe I expect too much from my fellow Australians.

  44. Sorry… The requirement for a HTV cards that are to be distributed on the day only apply to sate and local government. In the federal election all that is required is a statement authorised and printed by…. Maybe it is time to standardise the election procedures and ideally have one electoral authority.

    The requirement of registration of HTV cards to be distributed is a good one. Better still would be to adopt te Tasmanian system and ban HTV cards and just have posters displayed in each polling both.

  46. Does the fact that the new Rudd homebuyers deal requires saving, rather that spending, mean it is anti-inflationary?
    If one put their tax cuts into this homebuyers scheme, could it be argued to thus have a multiplier effect?
    And, as the Howard road spending is a reannouncement , does that mean it is already funded , so thus Rudd can give maxine and the weatherman a lazy $20mill for a tunnel filter?

  47. Savings are generally not inflationary… Mr Briss, you are correct.

    It will also lower interest rates, to the extent that a large pool of savers are trying to lend money to banks. Though that is very marginal at best.

  48. Having watched a number of other national elections I am convinced that preferential voting is a must have option. Th amount of money required to hold a two-round voting system is unjustified. Let alone the time it takes to select a candidate. Look at the French Presidential election of the national elections in Eastern Europe.

    I also think that having preferential voting in multiple proportional ballots is far preferable then the party list systems in Europe where the party representation/vote is is just scaled up

    Australia should do more to promote the idea of preferential ballots (Ideally they fix up te anominalies in our system left over from the manual count first)

  49. Can someone with more of a psephological inclination than I possibly explain what the Socialist Equality Party are doing in Victoria?

    3-Way ticket. First one has Greens first and the DSP/Socialist Alliance just about last. Thats just petty squabbling, I’m sure. Second one has ALP first. Third one has the LNP first.

    Last 2 give remarkably high preferences to Family First.

    What’s the story? It just seems entirely random.

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