• In the midst of the Friday morning poll flurry, I somehow failed to take note of the Advertiser poll of 778 voters from Wakefield. Labor’s Nick Champion led Liberal MP David Fawcett 58-42 on two-party preferred, from 47 per cent to 33 per cent on the primary vote. Yesterday the Advertiser ran a front-page item complaining that South Australia was being overlooked because its three Liberal marginals all looked like foregone conclusions for Labor. One might protest that Sturt and Boothby are in play, but the article informs us that “neither is expected to change hands unless the political stocks of the Government deteriorate even further in SA”.
• Speaking on Lateline on Friday night, Michael Kroger claimed “people in the Liberal Party and around the traps generally” were “more and more confident that the two high profile seats in NSW of Bennelong and Malcolm Turnbull’s seat in Wentworth will be won by the Government” – although Rod Cameron wasn’t so sure. Kroger also rejected talk Labor might have its eyes on Casey and Aston in Melbourne, as their campaign focus was entirely on more marginal seats.
• The Age economics reporter Josh Gordon on the targeting of recent election promises:
In the past week alone, the Coalition has announced a $15 million south coast sustainable regions program (for the NSW electorate of Eden-Monaro), $300,000 for a Beaconsfield Heritage Museum (for the Tasmanian seat of Lyons), $400,000 for palliative care in Geelong and Colac (for the Victorian seats Corio and Corangamite) and $16 million to extend the Tasmanian freight equalisation scheme to include King Island (for the Tasmanian seat of Braddon). Those states with more marginal electorates have generally faired best. Queensland has been the overwhelming winner. It has been promised $878.7 million by the Coalition, including hundreds of millions of dollars worth of road funding announcements. Western Australia has also been the next major beneficiary, with a $405 million plan announced to extensively upgrade Perth’s roads. Victoria, where there are no Coalition seats held by a margin of less than 4.9 per cent, has been promised $238 million by the Coalition, despite its 25 per cent share of Australia’s population and economy. Labor has been just as expedient with its spending plans. Its policy promises tally to about $47.6 billion. As with the Coalition, the vast bulk would be soaked delivering tax cuts. A significant chunk of the remaining cash – about $4.3 billion – would be used to fund spending decisions targeting specific states. Again, Queensland has been the major winner, with more than $2.6 billion on offer. Victoria, where there are eight Labor seats held by margins of less than 5 per cent, would fare relatively better under a Labor government, with about $724 million promised.
• I don’t get too excited about ballot paper placement, but it’s nonetheless interesting to note that Maxine McKew is last out of 13 in Bennelong. Notable candidates elsewhere: long-standing Liberal preselection aspirant Michael Darby running for the CDP in Dobell; former Greens MPs Michael Organ in Cunningham and Robin Chapple in Kalgoorlie; former state Noosa MP Cate Molloy, running as an independent in Wide Bay; and perennial trouble-maker Stephen Mayne in Higgins. No sign of Kelly Hoare in Shortland. In the Senate, former Labor member for Kalgoorlie Graeme Campbell is on a ticket in Western Australia along with former state One Nation MP John Fischer. The fourth Labor New South Wales candidate I was wondering about the other day turns out to be Pierre Esber, a Right faction Parramatta councillor who had long coveted the Bennelong preselection. The all-important Senate preference tickets will be revealed this afternoon.
• Sue Neales of The Mercury reports that “internally, Labor remains confident about winning Bass back from the Liberals … but gloating about a Labor clean-sweep of all five Tasmanian electorates is gone”. This is roundabout way of saying that Braddon is still in play, although the Liberals suffered a blow there this week when the government was forced to delay its much-touted Mersey Hospital takeover.
• There has been a spike in chatter lately about the possibility of the Liberals losing their ACT Senate seat, following recent Morgan results showing the party’s vote at a parlous 24 per cent. With 33 per cent needed to secure a seat, that would turn the second seat into a contest between Labor and the Greens. As territory Senators’ terms are tied to the House, this would mean the Coalition would lose its Senate majority immediately, and not with the changeover of state Senators in the middle of next year.
• Shame on me for not yet having linked to Peter Tucker’s self-explanatory Tasmanian Politics website. Go look.
Finally saw a positive Liberal TV ad.
Just for something different, Jason Koutsoukis has a piece in the age today about humour (or the lack of it) in politics. It is a defence of Garrett, along the following lines:
“The furore over Garrett’s airport encounter with Steve Price, the simian blowhard from radio station 2UE, is almost too silly to be believed.
Price went on air on Friday to make the serious allegation that Garrett told him Labor was not as supportive of Coalition policies as it made out to be. This was during a 60-second conversation in the Qantas Club.
Not an interview, just an off-the-cuff attempt to shake off a garish, attention-seeking blabbermouth. Yet the story got a huge run because politicians aren’t allowed to crack jokes.”
I think the ‘garish attention seeking blabbermouth’ bit a little restrained.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/opinion/no-jokers-in-the-pack/2007/11/03/1193619198609.html
Don’t know if my original post on the subject got lost or not… I’m confused…
… but you hadda love the way Howard admitted he had to closely re-read his own policies from 2004 in order to dig up some vague references to WorkChoices.
And there he found them (according to him)… no ads, no policy announcements, no spruiking, no publicity at the time… buried in the fine print for all to see.
Lovely.
M. Snakeboy – I suspect you’re spot on. The Abbott thing the other day had that air to it. I wonder how much say Hyacinth has in things on a day to day basis this time around? Or maybe it’s just the old bloke deciding the ‘team’ aren’t up to it and he has to decide everything. I can just imagine it.
The advertiser has been showing big swings to Labor across Adelaide, 6% in Kingston, 10% in Hindmarsh, 12-14% in Adelaide and now 8% in Wakefield. With those sort of swings Labor has a chance of winning Sturt and Boothby.
Here it is (transcipt’s up):
What about the other 2,999 pages of legislation? Where did he mention what’s in them?
I love the way Howard starts out on WorkChoices (the subject of Cassidy’s question) and before the end of ther paragraph has segued on to “reducing the discrepancies between the different state jurisdictions,” as if that’s what WorkChoices is all about.
As the old saying goes, “everything old is new again”. Howard believes that if it worked for John Gorton and has previously worked for him, it must work again.
{Back in 1969, there was a strong feeling that the government had been in office too long – a staggering 20 years – and was bereft of fresh ideas. It had committed Australian troops to an unpopular war in Vietnam, drawing complaints that the government was toadying up to Washington.
The parallels do not end there. The Labor Party was led by a popular moderniser, Gough Whitlam, who campaigned on a raft of forward-thinking policies. He vowed, for instance, to ditch the “White Australia” immigration policy.
Eventually, though, he was beaten by a Liberal Party which successfully hammered home its core message that the economy would not be safe in Labor hands and that Mr Whitlam would be bullied by the unions. }
http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/nickbryant/
Wrap up of Don’s Party. But not this year, it is going to be Rudd’s Party.
Howard’s 2004 policy talks about strengthening the Industrial Relations Commission.
Ooops he forgot that one this morning.
New Lib add on ABC web site.
http://www.abc.net.au/default.htm
I just watched the Insiders interview, Howard looks desperate, talks desperate and is desperate.
On this performance I really can’t see Howard breaking through he is just too negative, everything he does is right, everything the opposition does is wrong really people aren’t stupid and this is not 2004 and Kevin Rudd is not Mark Lathan, the 2004 election strategy will not work in 2007 because he is up against a different opponent with different tactics, game over.
Scorpio, nice one. 🙂
On the betting markets, if you haven’t seen Bryan’s latest graphical compilation of the odds, I recommend you do so.
It shows very clearly the linear decline in the probability of a Coalition victory, as well as the buffoonery that accompanies markets (of all types) from time to time. The over-reaction to the Howard – Costello business, and then the same over-reaction to “the narrowing” in the first week of the campaign.
When you take out the buffoonery, the movement in the market is clear and unmistakable.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/
Also, for those of you who are concerned about the overall market suggesting the ALP is a 75% chance, but the individual seats show the ALP ahead in only 75, or whatever the current count is: don’t be concerned. The only odds that matter are the overall probabilities for winning the election, the individual seats probabilities will only be of use on election eve. Until then they are like early Melbourne Cup markets, a pointer but not very reliable.
Whatever the overall odds are on election eve, will be almost identically matched by the number of seats the ALP leads in and it won’t be 75 it will be a great deal more.
saturday night the pm kicks back and read’s liberal’s 2004 election policy,
he must have had a list of questions the insiders were going to ask this morning or was he reflecting on the glory of doing latham
James J, what ad was that??
Is it the one on their site where a grandma type says if you don’t remember how bad things were under Labor to ask your parents?
LOL
Just asking a question?
Could the Liberals anti-union campaign be failing because it is too obscure to anyone under 40?
Scorpio that AWA your rights at work Youtube on the ABC site can be found here:
http://au.youtube.com/watch?v=yxKjNos-UVA
I recommend it – damn funny and direct. Great for late night viewing on TV
Grog, check out the ABC one in my last post!
Bushfire Bill, the thing that grabs me is that Howard et. al. have started calling their IR policy “Workchoices” again. Whatever happened to the policy that dare not speak its name? Perhaps they found that people kept referring to it by its given name and so had no choice but to own it again.
Like a family embarrassed by a wayward son in gaol.
Gold, scorpio. Pure gold.
The Nats are still trying to influence the Reserve Bank Board.
{Federal Nationals leader Mark Vaile has again warned of the impact an interest rate rise will have on farmers.
Mr Vaile has told Channel Ten that he is simply stating the facts, and is not trying to put pressure on the Reserve Bank.
“Interest rate rises affect different people in different ways, but they will disproportionately affect farming families who are currently suffering from severe drought with the debt burden they are carrying,” he said. }
http://www.bigpond.com/news/business/content/20071104/2081097.asp
Grog: No it wasnt that one. It was a new one where they actually talked about some of their key policy initiatives. They managed not to attack labor!
Another stunt from Kevin Rudd today with his housing policy, perhaps this time if he lies to the family who open their home up for Ruddmania that he will admit it and apologise like he and Swan failed to do for Rosana Harris. How the media didn’t crucify Rudd for that blunder ill never know?
There was a politics Website which I stumbled across recently in which contributors were suggesting the headlines that Denis Shanahan might compose for The Australian on 26th November, subsequent to the defeat of the Howard Govt. Comments similar to Billy Snedden in 1974 (“We didn’t lose the election, we just didn’t win enough seats”) were posted. There were some really wonderful creative comments which gave me a lot of laughs. Unfortunately I didn’t bookmark the site and now I can’t find it. Can anyone help me re-locate the “Denis Shanahan competition” Website?
Thanks in anticipation
Now Nick Minchin is undermuining Howard’s two steps forward/one step backwards explanation on the Libs and Labors position on interest rates and whether or not one or the other will cause them to go up. Keep it coming.
{Finance Minister Nick Minchin denied that the tax cuts or Labor’s $31 billion commitment will add to inflationary pressures next year.
“There are many economists that share our view that these tax cuts we have announced and that Labor has effectively mirrored will not be inflationary,” he told Sky News. }
http://www.theage.com.au/news/National/Howard-effectively-concedes-rate-rise/2007/11/04/1194117859046.html
Libs to sell Medibank – dork Minchin. 🙂
This is fun from the ABC site – the entirely accurate coffee bea poll.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/11/04/2081133.htm?site=elections/federal/2007
Glen,
It’s too late for that stuff now. The caravan has moved on.
Currently it’s moving at such a rapid pace, the media and the rest of us are finding it increasingly difficult to keep up.
Glen, how many times do we have to discredit your beatup of that one? Give it a rest.
The major thing about the Rudd first home savings stuff is that it was done in consultation with the HIA. So when the lazy journalists look up who to get to comment on it they ring the HIA – who in turn will back it 100%
Masterstroke. 🙂
Dario, this stunt may have been genuine today, but you yourself cannot run away from that fact that Rudd, Swan and Plibersek all lied to Rosana Harris about their rental policy. Dario either they all didnt understand their rental policy or they lied to Rosana Harris, i don’t know which is worse. At least if Howard has a policy he follows through with in and isnt interested in stunts or slogans.
We had a the big roads policy from the tories next childcare and probably then housing and then more health and education initiatives.
Oh and Medibank should be sold.
Ha ruawake you have just proven Labor can’t come up with its own policies, either the Coalition writes 95% of them or they get big business to write their policies like HIA. Another own goal.
Glen, the media didn’t crucify Rudd for that because they mis-heard what he said. They realised that and stopped attacking him. Perhaps you should do the same.
“Oh and Medibank should be sold.”
And the ABC and SBS and Australia Post?
Grasping at straws mate. 😉
Weather Alert!
Nowhere to hide, nowhere to run to!
{Earlier, Finance Minister Nick Minchin said the coalition would go ahead with the sale of Medibank Private in late 2008 to resolve a conflict of interest for the Government as regulator of the private health insurance industry.
“We do believe that the Government has a very bad conflict of interest being the regulator of private health insurance but owning one of the private health insurance companies and, in this case, the biggest one,” he told Sky News.
“We are obviously seeking a mandate for it and we have kept our preparations to a minimum to this point, but we hope that if we are elected we will sell it in late 2008.”
Proceeds from the sale will be added to the $2.5 billion already in the health and medical infrastructure fund.
“We are not selling the asset just to get the money,” he said.
Mr Tanner told Sky News that a Rudd Government does not intend to sell Medibank Private.
“It’s very interesting that Senator Minchin trots out this conflict of interest excuse as to why the Medibank Private should be privatised.”
He said the Government also regulated postal services and broadcasting, but also owned Australia Post, the ABC and SBS.
“So on Senator Minchin’s logic it is going to privatise Australia Post, the ABC and SBS,” Mr Tanner said}
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700796-29277,00.html
“I just watched the Insiders interview, Howard looks desperate, talks desperate and is desperate.” AM
Does he ever, he is coming across as being really nasty.
At least Glen, Howard doesn’t have to worry about Iraq anymore.
{The war in Iraq has been wonBy Andrew Bolt
November 02, 2007 01:00am
Article from: Font size: + –
Send this article: Print Email
THERE is a reason Iraq has almost disappeared as an election issue.
Here it is: The battle is actually over. Iraq has been won.
I know this will seem to many of you an insane claim. Ridiculous!
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22689634-5007146,00.html
Well not the ABC, and not Australia Post but if a buck is to be made and we can use the money on infrastructure i dont see a problem. Obviously Labor doesnt have a problem with it either after all Keating and Hawke sold off Qantas and the Commonwealth Bank in the 80s and 90s or maybe they were so much in debt they needed $$ to pay the bills?
Not the other Tim have you listened to what Rudd said?
He said words to the effect of “How much is your rent” “240 a week” “oh so you’re effectively going to get 50 off a month”, followed up by Swan telling her she’d get off the rent merry-go-round with Labor’s policy; but failed to note she’d get nothing from that policy as it’s for new houses built and only for 50,000 not the supposed 500,000 renters in strife.
“Mission Accomplished”
Posted by: George W. Bush of U.S.A 4:48pm today
Scorpio clearly the war in Iraq has not been won, but you cannot deny that casualties have been reduced significantly in the past few months. I should hope you are pleased with this development and hopeful that it will last.
I wonder how many Labor Lovers are praying for a rate rise??
‘Words to the effect’ eh Glen? Ahhh, Howard would be so proud.
I like the way that these arrogant twits like to try and tell everyone else how to run their own business when they can’t even run their own.
Downer calls for return to democracy in Pakistan
{FOREIGN Minister Alexander Downer has urged a swift return to democratic rule in Pakistan following President Pervez Musharraf’s declaration of a state of emergency.}
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700545-29277,00.html
You know what I find so amazing about the government? It’s that even after 6 months of consistent polling pointing towards an inevitable Labor Landslide win, Howard and Co still cannot admit that made some serious mistakes in their time. They still think they are a great government and it is a mystery why the polls are against them. Newsflash! GOOD GOVERNMENTS DON’T LOSE LANDSLIDE ELECTIONS!
By the way, what has happened to Alexander Downer? I mean Tony Abbott is trying valiantly to fill his role, but let’s face it; No-one campaigns better (for the opposition) than Downer. He is the master!
Cmon Dario as if i can find the exact words but i watched Insiders that week it blew up on Rudd and they had the interview and i saw Question Time in which Deputy Dawg walloped Rudd about lying to Rosana Harris.
This will do Howard’s Neucler Reactor policy a bit of damage. Especially since Qld will be opening up a couple of greenhouse gas friendly “Gas Powered” stations in the near future too.
{A NORTH-WEST Queensland town is set to become the first in the state to completely rely on solar power within two years.
Premier Anna Bligh today said Cloncurry had been chosen as the site for a “ground-breaking” $7 illion solar thermal power station.
“We’re going to build a 10-megawatt solar thermal power station,” Ms Bligh said in a statement.
“It’s a real breakthrough for electricity generation.”
Ms Bligh, who is in Cloncurry for her first community cabinet meeting as Premier, said the power station would keep generating electricity even when the sun was not shining – a vague prospect in the sun-drenched northern town. }
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,22700542-29277,00.html
It’s going to be great to see the end of the Rodents reign in just 13 days time. So what genuinely good things has the dessicated coconut done in the last 11 years:
– Changes to the Family Law Act. (should go further to stop greedy leaches taking your money).
– 50% discount on capital gains tax. (should be totally abolished).
These are positive policies the government should be implementing Glen instead of trying to fool people with everything. Gee they might even improve in the polls.
Actually Rudd should get in first with the above excellent (and vote winning) initiatives.
Terry: Its from http://www.ozelection2007.info
Glen on Insiders today it sounded like Howard was praying for a rate rise.
glen
costello is called deputy dawg cos he is howards bitch
thought you would like to know
(dont go getting jealous now you hear!)
“I wonder how many Labor Lovers are praying for a rate rise??”
Glen we are going to kick ass without one, you should be asking “How many Howard huggers are s*ittng themselves”.
Who do you trust and all that. 😉
[So what genuinely good things has the dessicated coconut done in the last 11 years]
Gun laws. That’s it.