Galaxy: 53-47

Big thanks to Tasmanian reader Stuart who tells us that Lateline (going to air earlier in the apple isle due to daylight saving) reports a six point difference in tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, with ACNielsen showing “improvement” in the Coalition primary vote (from 40 per cent last time).

UPDATE: Report up at News Limited. A full table of Galaxy’s results this year:

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
53 47 45 43
Sept 24
56 44 46 40
Aug 27
57 43 47 39
July 30
54 46 44 41
July 2
55 45 46 41
June 4
53 47 44 42
May 14
57 43 49 39
April 23
58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

261 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47”

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  1. John of Melbourne (145)

    Nothing official yet, but see post 125. I’ll be surprised if that’s not right, based on other comments made tonight on the 7.30 Report and Lateline.

  2. And some of the Labor supporters are quickly starting to mimic 1945 Germany – “the fuhrers miracle weapons will save us”, “the fuhrer is holding back his best troops”

  3. John of Melbourne

    Mine is pure speculation John: no intent to give the impression that I have a grapevine to ACNeilsen. Don’t think I will be far off the mark though. A drop to 54-46 in the 2PP would be surprising, a lift in the primary vote is likely though.

  4. Thanks, Canberra Boy.

    William, as adopted previous thread, please moderate the more idiotic sexual references. Those of us with either delicate sensibilities or expectation of a certain tone are pleased.

    Scorpio, if you nip in tonight, Cheers! I am unlikely to stay on line from here.

  5. Ah remember the good olde days of the first week of Election 2004 when the Libs had the ALP within easy competitive reach of 50/50.
    Wouldn’t JWH die for those numbers now?

  6. Cheers Darn, I’m a doubting Thomas, I think I’ll wait for the Age to update their website.

    I suppose you’re right Gary Bruce.

  7. I think what spooks the ALP supporters on here is that the Liberal TPP vote is finally showing at something close to or above the ALP primary.

    Seems like a big shift to me, and i wonder if this is some kind of outlier poll or “polling overshoot”, they do happen from time to time. If ACN goes in the same direction then somethings on, but we need to wait for next weeks polls to get an idea of magnitude / rate of change.

    The GG will no doubt have a field day with this, and thats going to be painful to see. Still, it would have been somehow unfair for them not to get something back in the polls after blowing $34 B of our money.

    Long time till its called people. I reckon the final result after a lot of bouncing around in the polls, will be 54 – 46 to the ALP, and ALP/Greens control the Senate.

  8. Saw a Lib ad on unions tonight which ended with some unknown dude saying “Its scary, its very scary”.

    So, if its going to be that low-rent, Id say its a good idea for an ALP global warming ad. Which has the added advantage of actually being scary.

    Gloves off time. And I’ll wager Team Rodent can dish it out, but not take it.

  9. paulk #102

    I just hope we can hold Bastogne until Rudd (Patton) can rally the troops and crush the Liberal assault in a pincer movement.

  10. Crikey Whitey 145
    Yes it is from a reliable source but as I am essentially unknown here you are welcome to take it at face value and with lots of salt.
    Let the result speak for itself and be the verdict when it comes out later tonight.

  11. 54-46 from the more reliable poll. And that’s AFTER Crodent’s main tax shot in the locker; and the ALP esssentially doing no campaigning this week.

    Excellent!

    Who knew beating Howard was this piss easy? 😉

  12. Soon it will be Howard alone in his bunker directing the release of imaginary policy and then waiting for them to come to his aid. Sound familiar. The Rudd army has taken the Riechstag and is moving in on the Chancellery.

    My two great passions military history and politics combined. It all my dreams come at once.

  13. Nope. I’ll wait for What the Papers Say, Delroy. In case.

    Observed recently two blue singleted, muscle bound real men, chatting together as they delicately consumed their sushi.

    Perfect image, Kevin 07.

  14. Not bad after the week we’ve had, but the concern was last time’s Neilsen was down 1, this month’s down 2. Hope there’s no trend developing here guys. Alp primary last time was down 2 from month before – wonder what this one will show?
    I know I’m being paranoid, but am I being paranoid enough?

  15. We probably have not seen all that the Liberals have to “offer” in scare campaigns. Am expecting them to roll out “wall-to-wall Labor” scare ads a couple of weeks out from election day. Hope Team KR are ready for that one!

  16. Paul k # 178

    It was never smart to underestimate Patton, but I agree Eisenhower was the greater leader. Also Patton stopped the Bulge so I think it was the proper Rudd analogy. Hey, they both won, lets just hope Rudd becomes a leader of a country and is not run over by a car like Patton.

  17. John of Melbourne #179

    No unfortunately not. But I wouldn’t mind being defence minister, they all see the need to test out the fighters, making sure they work I guess.

  18. All the Labor governments would be democratically elected, so this would clearly be what the Australian people wanted and voted for.

    Not a one party state, because if they change their minds they can vote for someone else.

  19. If Labor’s primary is the same or higher [as was suggested] it means that the calling of the election and the Govt’s Tax Cut hasn’t affected its support base AT ALL.

    With the big tax cuts it probably should be the Govt’s best week of the campaign and, it hasn’t affected Labor’s own vote. So no soft voters so far. That is the good news to take from ‘the narrowing’. :mrgreen:

  20. #188

    It would only be that way until such time as a state Liberal opposition got their act together and got elected. After 20+ consecutive defeats in state & territory elections, the Liberals have to hit paydirt sooner or later.

  21. I actually thought that one of the best things to enhance Labor’s cahnces federally was if the libs had got up in one of the state elections this year – to avoid the wall-to-wall alp slogans.

  22. Wall to wall Liberal governments would be an awful thought too John. Afterall we wouldn’t want a one party state would we.

  23. Hossen27,

    I don’t want to turn this into an argument about WWII but you can’t even compare Ike and Patton. One controlled a single army in the field, the other the entire allied forces in Europe. Patton relieved one city, Ike oversaw the defeat of the entire German force along the entire front. It’s like trying to compare Custer with Grant. No comparison.

  24. 188
    ~vaio Says:
    October 18th, 2007 at 11:56 pm
    No. 186

    Wall-to-wall Labor is a worriesome thought. Australia would be tantamount to a one-party state.

    Some of these Labor States are Labor only by their lable. Vario – you have to admit that they are pretty much like the real liberal party as is Rudd’s Labor. I think the real issue of concern is that as expressed by Dr Hewson last night – that the Liberal party was already so far to the extreme right it couldn’t move any further to the right without falling of the edge of the eath.

    I have voted Howard in the past – but the Liberal party we have now is no Liberal party. It is in the firm grip of the hard right and another election victory will seal its fate. ANY genuine Liberal supporter must consider voting against their party – just to save it.

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