Galaxy: 53-47

Big thanks to Tasmanian reader Stuart who tells us that Lateline (going to air earlier in the apple isle due to daylight saving) reports a six point difference in tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, with ACNielsen showing “improvement” in the Coalition primary vote (from 40 per cent last time).

UPDATE: Report up at News Limited. A full table of Galaxy’s results this year:

TWO-PARTY PRIMARY
ALP LNP ALP LNP
Oct 19
 53 47 45 43
Sept 24
 56 44 46 40
Aug 27
 57 43 47 39
July 30
 54 46 44 41
July 2
 55 45 46 41
June 4
 53 47 44 42
May 14
 57 43 49 39
April 23
 58 42 49 37

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

261 comments on “Galaxy: 53-47”

Comments Page 3 of 6
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  1. It’s good to see the coalition supporters getting their rocks off over a poll that suggests Labor would win an election now by 23 seats. Hell, if it gets any better for Labor you will be over the moon.

  2. Glen,

    This week is your Battle of the Bulge. Howard Panzers have broken through the Ardennes Forest but they don’t have enough gasoline to reach Antwerp. The advance won’t last.

  3. Peter,(#89) is it any more ridiculous than the gleeful chortling of the Liberal petunias who emerge here after the tiniest of drizzles declaring it to be a deluge?

    I think I’ve made my point.

  4. Well, 53-47 isn’t that great for the ALP.

    Of course, let’s take in stride that

    1 – Galaxy is pro lib.

    2 – 800 sample pool. We laugh off Morgan polls for the same reason, why should this one be taken so seriously?

    I do think the ALP hasn’t done so well so far in the campaign. But clearly that’s just because they aren’t going to release any of their policies till a little bit later on.

    Further, the Libs have put far more ads on TV and had the big tax cut policy release, both of have practically been uncontested by the ALP, or at the very least, not countered.

    I wouldn’t be surprised at all if once the ALP starts releasing its policies and starts a strong fear campaign on workchoices that the polls go back to their 55-45 margin.

    But at the same time, Kevvy, don’t relax for a moment. Howard may be a lot of things, but he’s tough as nails and has an unbelievable work ethic to match his insatiable desire to hang on to the PM spot. Let’s hope this poll reminds the ALP of this and that they go up a gear in their campaign.

    There’s a long way to go boys and girls.

  6. June 4 Galaxy poll had the ALP at 53%, however the Rudd team quickly moved back up to 57% in August. I have a feeling Kevin Rudd hasn’t really began the election campaign yet, giving Howard a false sense of security.

  7. Labor is finished. The narrowing is finally here. Glen was right all along. The only thing left now is momentum and trend and it will be a landslide to the Libs. Call 000.

  8. LTEP – A big lead as preferred PM is far more significant for an opposition leader than the prime minister. It is usually the PM who leads regardless of the state of the parties. Labor’s and Rudd’s position looks very solid regardless of the sighs of relief coming from the conservatives on this site.

  9. A hint on Lateline [no specifics] suggested AC Nielsen will also show a lift in the Lib primary – no other info. Not consistent with the Crikey rumor.

    Just have to wait and see. Still, considering 53-47 is still a big swing on 2004 and a lead, and given MoE possibilities it’s still looking pretty good for Labor.

    The internal polling and behaviour by both camps suggests Labor is still in control at present.

  10. It’s a fine line when releasing policies. Release them to early and they get forgotten in the hailstorm of the campaign. Release them too late eg Latham forestry policy and you don’t have enough time to explain them.

    I don’t think Kev has to show his hand in week one but he should be in full swing by week 3.

  11. This week has seen a high govt focus. But whenever Rudd has gotten high visibility the polls seem to respond favourably – people like to see him on their telly in their lounge room – he’s comfortable. The question is where to now for the Coalition? High media coverage this week but can they sustain this visibility for 5 weeks? What will top their tax bribes? And for that matter, will the folks out there even like seeing Coalition (and Howard in particular) faces incessantly?

  12. I see it as a game of chess…..

    If you move all your pieces and attack early on, then yes you hold yourself in the ascendency.

    However, if you do not execute the attack correctly, or your opponent’s defence is too good, then you will lose, as you will be caught out of position and your opponent has reserves that he can attack with later

    We are only in the first few moves of this campaign. The Libs are on the front foot and have won the first week, but they must execute their attacks correctly, and hope the Labor defence has weaknesses.

    Any other analogies people? 🙂

  13. You better buy the papers while you can Glen. Hell you really enjoy reading a story that says your side will lose 23 seats? To each his own I guess.

  16. Paul K,

    After this week I would say Labor is more like the French sitting behind the Maginot Line shocked that JWH went through the Ardennes with the tax policy.

  18. George Megalogenis wrote about the ALP being shocked with Howard’s tax bribes as well. But I don’t know – it didn’t surprise me at all, in fact I was counting on it. I’d be more surprised if the ALP didn’t see it coming a mile away. And surely they must have considered that the Coalition would try and start their campaign with a huge bang in order to establish some kind of momentum which was lacking prior to the election being called.

  19. I’m bewildered, not concerned.

    Lateline has forever posted the ACNielsen headline results.

    Why is ACN so tight lipped this time?

    Could someone tell me when and where to expect on line MSM?

    Thanks

    Watching Union thug, Tony Abbott, on Lateline.

  21. SirEggo (112)

    I prefer to see it as a tug of war, where the team that’s losing seems to always mount one last mighty pull on the rope and for a moment seems to be getting somewhere , but then runs out of steam and ends up thoroughly creamed.

  22. As I saw recently on a different post it’s time all Labour supporters took the Choper patented “Harden the F%%% Up Pills”.

    Jesus take a breather. Abbot’s just annouced his Union memebrship credentials, Hockeys foaming at the mouth tellng everybody that Unions are irrelevant while the attack ads are on, the Old codger can’t get a name straight and the Smirk monster is lookin for reds under the beds.

    The tax thing worked cos it looked like a lot and let’s not kid ourselves the electorate is pampered and expets it, but they better find the same amount for hospitals and education and most importantly the environment. That’s what the real people (not us on here) are really tuned into.

    Agree with the cuddly bear routine that Rudd is doing. Not really very endearing. I’d let him loose with real people. Unlike the the Old codger he actually seems like he can converse and relate to people.

  23. Edward,

    It the Libs who are holding the defensive positions and trying to hold the line. Labor is on the offensive. In any case Howard has shot his biggest wad early. Interesting days ahead.

  24. Unsere Rettung ist gekommen … bald Rudd und seine Kumpane von der Arbeitspartei könnte finden sich hinter in den Umfragen, wie würden sie nach wie vor für nicht so viel … es ist ein 6 Woche Kampagne, und diese sind zwei Umfragen aber, wenn Andere Umfragen zeigen eine Änderung der Linksparteien sollten Angst, große Angst … Howard ist auf dem Vormarsch!

  25. I have heard through the grapevine that tomorrow’s ACN is showing a narrowing 54-46 TPP. Interestingly ALP rose 1 pt PP 48 and Libs 2 to 42. Considering the HUGE $34 billion bribe, this is a small return. How many more billions of our money will it take to win this?
    WHATEVER IT TAKES! It is easy spending other people’s money anyway. Let the pork roll…and bugger the consequences.

    Bugger the economy and bugger the environment. What has the next generation ever done for us anyway…

  28. Nice try ESJ [116] but do you really think anyone would be shocked by JWHoward attempting to buy yet another election with the punters’ own money?

    How brilliant a strategy is it really to commit so much to a lunge forward when (excuse the mix of examples here) – (1) the IMF has just rained so hard on the parade as to turn the ground to deep deep mud and (2) he who moves first is exposed to a counterstroke anywhere the opposition choses to strike.

    The tories have not struck through the Ardennes they have committed most of their forces to a move into Belgium.

  29. And to put things in even more perspective, take a look at the most read stories for both Fairfax and News – except for the Oz the only top 5 story with any politician involved is the chastisement of the Chaser by both Rudd and Howard. The average Joe and Jill out there just aren’t as enthralled with the current political argy-bargy as the politically obsessed and commentariat are. I noticed that today at work – the same people who had changed their position on the Libs haven’t swapped back, they’re not even listening yet.

  30. Darn 121

    Or we can go the cricket analogy

    All out attack early on, but you lose wickets as well as scoring lots of runs because you are taking risks

    Then the other team know their target, take their time and carefully reach it, pacing themselves perfectly….

    OK, before this degrades intop a dodgy analogy fest, I’m off to bed

    It’s only one poll, and Labor is still winning

    Think about this people….

  33. No Paul…

    The Liberals are coming. The Liberals are coming back!

    Gary we are rejoicing because it shows the election is still close and anything can happen sure we are behind but according to these polls Rudd wont have 100 seats lol!

  34. Oh well, Tony Abbott joined the ultimate self serving Union.

    A true believer.

    The Government is totally backpedalling on the Joe Hockey morning nonsense. Have to be the thrashing today on talkback etc.

    Now he’s back to Julia, the Commo, would be leader. What is a Commo, anyway?

    TJ doing good stuff.

  37. I speculate and hope for a 56-44 ACNeilsen poll to read about tomorrow along with a 2 point bump up in the Coalition primary vote based on the moron voter being wooed by the cash cow politics of Mondays income tax cuts. Same ole same ole for older political tragics who have seen all this before.

  40. Yes, listen to wise Paladin. This poll, though often favouring Liberals, is accurately predicting a 23 seat Rudd Labor government majority. May I just put my own modest prediction of 22 gains on the table.
    Labor’s primary is still 45%, this is stratospheric if compared to the last 4 elections. The tax cuts have gone down with some increased support, the union ads have scared the faithful back into the libs arms, but the truly disgruntled have not budged! $34 billion, compared with spare change ALP announcements has seen the libs jump early. Whether the ALP can counter is yet to be seen.
    Us Laborites should be thanking Galaxy, complacency is a cancer. Find a marginal seat, and enjoy the hustings.

  41. Make hay while the sun shines Glen, ACNeilson wont do much for your spirits in the 2PP but the primary vote might get a 2-3 point bump along. I’d take that and smile if i were a Coalition supporter.

  42. Re #119 & 120 – Nielsen poll details usually appear on the Fairfax websites first and are not detailed on the AC Nielsen website for some time.

  44. Glen,

    Fehrer Howard’s army is made up of old men and young boys. There is no gasoline. The Luftwaffe is destroyed. Hermann Costello Goring is disliked by everyone. Berlin is surrounded. It is almost over.

  48. Hold your nerve, punters. Welcome to high water mark for Team Rodent’s polling; and the probable result on Nov 24. A stunning route!

    Rudd hasn’t started his campaign yet – and the Tory guns have been blazing all week. Getting on to the beach at Omaha was never going to be a party. They’re well entrenched on those hills, but down on popular support. Not much behind the roar.

    Rudd signalled today he will tack to the fiscal irresponsibility of the government’s plan – and come in cheaper & targeted. Its a good plan.

    This will grunt Rudd up – watch the next two weeks.

  49. Well the punters are not upset with Rudd if he still dominates the PPM – so if there is a move the source is likely to be a combination of calling the election and the tax cuts. But interestingly – going off the rumour – it has also caused Labor’s primary to go up.

    Calling the election may have caused 1% of undecideds to jump onto Labor. Calling the election has caused 1% to jump to LNP and the tax cuts another 1%. Not bad, all just from a rumour of a poll result.

    That is why I guess they said Rudd would be happy – it is a firm primary that will win the election – and if it goes up? Can’t be firmer than that.

    Wonder what the Greens is?

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