Big thanks to Tasmanian reader Stuart who tells us that Lateline (going to air earlier in the apple isle due to daylight saving) reports a six point difference in tomorrow’s Galaxy poll, with ACNielsen showing “improvement” in the Coalition primary vote (from 40 per cent last time).
UPDATE: Report up at News Limited. A full table of Galaxy’s results this year:
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
|
Oct 19
|
53 | 47 | 45 | 43 | |
|
Sept 24
|
56 | 44 | 46 | 40 | |
|
Aug 27
|
57 | 43 | 47 | 39 | |
|
July 30
|
54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
|
July 2
|
55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
|
June 4
|
53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
|
May 14
|
57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
|
April 23
|
58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
I wonder what the WA numbers are for this poll – especially as the Ben Cousins arrest basically cut the oxygen of any election news since he was arrested on Tuesday, which fits in perfectly with the Galaxy polling period.
Paul K — the punters are going to go nuts for Howard in the next couple of days. Watch the odds on Labor blow out to 1.8.
LTEP, That Keating was preferred PM is interesting, because you’d think with the ‘baseball bats’ and all of that he would not have been. Dare I suggest his preferred PM rating varied between polls. Rudds has not.
Wasn’t John Stirton from ACNielsen doing a decent poker on 7.30 this evening (‘next few polls crucial’ to Sol Lebovic’s ‘let’s wait around and see’)? Alas, ACNielsen will probably not get away with it again in his campaign.
An earlier point makes sense: that Labor planned a shorter campaign and that’s part of the reason why Rudd insited on more debates (to coincide with planned set piece announcements). So unless ALP bring down something extraordinary tomorrow, there will be nothing dimensions from K’07 to discuss on Sunday. Don’t know why it would be worth Rudd’s while to turn up to what at the moment would look like a debating victory lap for Howard. And then there’d be the audience feedback, the post-debate round of polls and the electoral buffer may well be whittled away, by the time K’07 planned campaign starts.
Mr Rudd is probably kicking himself for accepting to appear at the debate at this point… and so relatively late in the proceedings too.
There is going to be lots of this before 24th.
A 3% swing in few days does sound a bit much – that is a lot of people changing sides but Galaxy’s method does seem to be little little LNP friendly. If the AC Neilsen has also narrowed a point I guess it will indicate some sort of swing back to the LNP.
But I still believe the Labor vote is reasonably firm. We shall see.
Another reason for Labor to not rush out its Tax pack.
oh dear! oh dear!
the bÆ¡okies’ve just updated their scores: Labor:$1.56 / Coalition:$2.45
If you look at the graphs at OzPol Galaxy does appear to favour L-NP more than ACN, NewsPoll and definitely Morgan.
http://www.ozpolitics.info/guide/elections/fed2007/polls2007/#coalition
Or possibly I’m spooked and looking for an explanation 😉
YOU BEWDY!!!!!!!!!!!!! Plus AC will show an increase in Coalition Primary vote…the election isnt over not by a long shot!
PLEASE REMAIN CALM – the margin of error in this poll is 3.5% and Galaxy have consistently favoured the Coalition compared to the other major pollsters.
The 8 Galaxy polls over the last six months have averaged 55.375% for Labor.
The myriad Newspoll & Nielsen polls over the April to September period averaged 56.7% 2pp for Labor (although it must be said the July to September Newspolls averaged 56.0%), so Galaxy looks to be about 1.5% lower than the other two.
It would be reasonable to panic if we see more than one poll in a row from all of Newspoll, Nielsen & Galaxy with 53% or less.
“Rudd is still the preferred PM by some margin.”
This just sounds counter intuitive to me. A lot of people voting LNP want Rudd as PM. Is this a bit of people being worried Labor will win by too much?
remember the much-lauded 53/47 from Galaxy in June
Ah Paul K again with the money
What are you ? Some kind of election profiteer? Where’s your solidarity comrade?
No more queensbury rules – I wholeheartedly agree – unleash the CFMEU in downtown Sydney, maybe smack a few liberals around?
Sensible punctuation apparently is.
53-47 means labor only pick up 23 seats for a 83 seat total.
This means that though the libs would lose the zealots would still maintain control, not a good result for those who want to see the liberal party reformed and returned to its roots.
A poll like this may give those liberal waverers second thoughts about voting for Howard, most of the criticism against the swing to the hard right that the liberal party has taken has come from liberal members themselves.
45 primary to Labor will do me.
Glen,
Be careful you don’t let your HUBRIS take you over now that you’ve suddenly rediscovered the polls.
Wake me up on the 24th to vote, I don’t think I want to sit through another 20 polls.
When do we get Nielsen?
Yes! And with five weeks to go, that’s plenty of room for the Coalition to overtake Labor.
Bye bye Krudd!!!!!!
Nosty is back. Suddenly the whole Liberal Party has rediscovered the polls which yesterday were supposedly wildly inaccurate.
The non-existant reply to the Coalitions budget announcement was pretty piss poor showing by Labor. They should have hammered them on their tax cuts forcing up interest rates.
And talking about interest rates… an announcement will be made on November 6th on whether interest rates will be going up or not. If they go up, then interest rates will be the top story for at least a week meaning it will be game over for the coalition as far as I’m concerned.
Labor can not be complacent, they have dilly dallied on the tax announcement, now it’s time for action stations. If Rudd thinks he can win by sitting back and sending cuddley bears to the coalition, it’s a lost cause and they might as well admit defeat now.
59 Canberra Boy
Labor panicking when you are on 53% of the 2PP?
Hang on, you’re in front!
Gees, everyone was sounding so positive…
I hope that does not reflect all of Labor’s way of thinking
Think Positive!
well, it seems that Rudd is not hurry to release Labor tax policy before the debate on Sunday.
This means if Howard want to attack Labor’s tax policy (after its released) he has to debate with Rudd again. Otherwise, he would be seen as chicken running scared.
I assume Combet is campaigning in Charlton. He’s fortunate Kelly Hoare didn’t do a “Gavin O’Connor”, because I think he would have been vulnerable to an independent challenge.
Bill Shorten has got far more publicity and that feature on the Sunday program last weekend.
So the general impression is Rudd so far has had a bad campaign?
My criticism is that he’s announcing very little of any substance, and there seems to be very little excitement being generated. And Labor was certainly king hit for six by Monday’s tax cut policy announcement.
You have to admit the Rodent and Smirky know how to play to their strengths, and they’ve got a very compliant media to assist them.
What was the point of Rudd’s land release policy announcement on Tuesday? Why the hell was he campaigning in Werriwa?
And if I see Rudd in one more hospital, I’ll scream: hasn’t he visited them all by now?
Labor has to step things up several notches, make some big announcements, and get Rudd out into the shopping centres, schools, old peoples homes etc.
The worst thing will be the spin from the Commentariat: It will all but hint that Rudd has somehow now lost the election.
Hrrrm… Nothing to see here, move along. A bit of Moet, and some newsvoters…
In the end, its the trend, in the end, its the trend…
Frank @ 73 – true. Then again, what’s Rudd going to talk about at the debate?
You people are going to hyperventilate and it’s only week one.
Get a grip. What opposition under normal circumstances wouldn’t be happy with a 53-47 split in the first week? Howard’s only got one big seller and he’s already fired his shot.
Remain cool under fire.
Let’s just wait for the Neilsen (and another Morgan tomorrow?). Perhaps this is just a fortuitous result to help boost coalition morale and confer “momentum”. It may turn out to have been an “outlier”.
76 Peter J. Nicol
Very true Peter. Very true.
I never said we are going to win Paul i said the election is not over while some left wingers still seem to think it is…week 1 to the Coalition and we needed it because if Rudd got off to a good start we were in deep sh%t…
I see a Fianna Fail result is a possibility now catching up in the last week of the campaign…this is the first poll in a long time to show the Coalition below 55-45 and as such some much needed momentum our way…
Ill be buying the papers tomorrow thats for sure!
🙂
🙂
Tony Jones: ” They going to elect a lame duck PM if they go with Howard”
OUCH!!!
Oh ye of little faith. Prediction AC Nielsen tomorrow:2pp 58- 42, primary 49-39.
Bye bye Mr Howard. See you at the Hague.
In which paper will the AC Nielsen poll be reported?
Dunno, Dinsey. He’ll do anything and say anything.
The Liberals don’t like Tony Jones, or Kerry O’Brien, or the Chaser boys.
Galaxy does sometimes produce the lower figure for Labor, Morgan are all over the place [and it was last week anyway] – ACNeilsen and Newspoll are the ones that should concern you.
If this Galaxy showed 54 I guess I would have found it more believable, I just think 53 is simply too much too soon – people don’t move like that unless it is a major event. The tax cut wasn’t 9/11.
Anyway the internal polling will be telling them the story – and I haven’t seen a worried Rudd team as yet – but have seen a Howard on the edge.
I am still stunned when anybody predicts an opinion poll result. Everyone here surely knows by now the effects of Moet, and I concur with our cute furry friend about the effects of newsvoters. Predict, if you must, but include a sensible range.
Glen,
Every poll that comes out you appear and abuse everyone because the polls are supposedly biased and wildly inaccurate, etc, etc. However one good poll and out you come like a banshee screaming how wonderful polls are. Make up your mind.
John Of Melbourne: AC Nielsen polls are published in the Sydney Morning Herald and The Melbourne Age
Can’t blame the tories on site for trying to read the first 53:47 in a very very long time as “Rudd’s hopes in tatters” but seriously folks, have the rest of you any concept or knowledge of strategy at all? In brief: ill considered opening offensive = annihilation to follow. Glen you at least must know the German for this surely …
I think you’ll find Mackerras has hit the nail on the head with his prediction.The ALP will win it’s most difficult campaign ever.I second the thought of one of the above punters,watch where the leaders go and you’ll get some idea of where the Party polling is indicating.I think that Blair,Bonner, Moreton,Herbert and Leichardt are definite starters for the ALP.
Burgey @ 77
plenty! anything but the tax.
Morgan has been at the high end with Galaxy at the low end with Newspoll and Nelson the meat in the sandwich.
This year the gap has been as wide as 61-39 to as narrow as 53-47.
The Liberals have won the first week thanks to the tax policy but in terms of everything else Howard hasn’t looked good this week.
sydney morning herald and the age
Interesting that Tony Abbott is over in Perth campaigning (as seen on Lateline).
I have confidence that Rudd and Labor are working to their own specific timetable. Every time I have seen him in the last couple of days he comes across as calm, confident and unruffled. There is still 5 weeks to go so there is plenty of time for reinforcement of current policies as well as any further announcements. If anything the Libs are giving the impression that they would like nothing more than to see an extreme reaction – they seem very edgy.
It’s really the commentariat that are coming across as hyperbolics, overstating every little detail. I imagine them flailing their arms around wildly whilst screaming at the top of their lungs that the “government is BACK!!!11!!11! Something to write about!!”
Let’s not get excited. It’s only one poll.
It fits with my expectations, but you always want to see at least 3 (preferably 4) polls showing the same story before you believe it.
Pull yourselves together progressives.
Déjà vu: shades of the ’96 polls with the ups and downs in the campaign.
People made up their minds months ago.
Nothing has changed.
Howard is still kaput.
The result won’t even be a close one: ALP to pick up 30 seats.
Thanks Howard Hater and Michael Proud