• Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal polling conducted last month has the Prime Minister “staring at defeat in his marginal northern Sydney seat of Bennelong”, with two-party support for Labor’s Maxine McKew said to be in “the low 50s”.
• Ewin Hannan and Rick Wallace of The Australian talk of Labor hopes of winning five seats in Victoria, where hostility to WorkChoices is said to be driven by the state’s “egalitarian nature, strong unions and left-wing political roots”. The five seats are Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McMillan and McEwen.
• Labor yesterday made an announcement on Queensland roads funding that focused on Brisbane, committing $500 million to the Northern Link tunnel joining the Western Freeway at Toowong in Ryan to a bypass at Kelvin Grove in Brisbane, and $70 million to connecting the Gateway Motorway to the Pacific Motorway in Bonner and Moreton. The former commitment has won applause from Brisbane’s Liberal lord mayor, Campbell Newman.
• Roads are also looming as a key battleground elsewhere: Ben Packham of the Herald-Sun reports that Labor will “today unveil a $600 million plan to upgrade the Western Highway in the first election pledge aimed squarely at Victoria”. The promise does not seem too finely targeted as far as marginal seats are concerned, although a big ticket upgrade between Melton and Bacchus Marsh is not far north of Corangamite.
• Local news site the Geographe Gazette reports that “former Liberal candidate for the state seat of Collie-Wellington, Craig Carbone, has informed Nola Marino that she is within ‘inches’ of being dropped as the candidate for Forrest”. There has been much talk that Marino might be threatened by independent candidate Noel Brunning, much of it coming from disgruntled Liberals.
• Rogue candidate corner. In Leichhardt, Ian Crossland of the Nationals has been rapped on the knuckles by party leader Mark Vaile for saying the Cape York Peninsula seat was “not an electorate for a woman”, referring to Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop. In Mallee, Labor’s perennial candidate John Zigouras has told local paper the Wimmera Mail-Times that the area is “redneck country surrounded by neo-Nazis”. In Corio, Liberal candidate Angelo Kakouros has told the Geelong Advertiser that “union bosses dictate similar to the way Hitler did during the world war about how we should live our life” (though he claims he was misquoted).
• Speaking of Leichhardt, a Cairns Post poll of 310 respondents from September 22 had previously escaped my attention. It had Labor candidate Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, with Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent. With the Greens on 10 per cent, this would suggest a comfortable win for Labor.
• Bob Brown has told the National Press Club the Greens will run fewer open tickets at this election than in 2004, meaning more preference recommendations to Labor.
• The always unmissable George Megalogenis unpacks the electoral significance of the oft-mentioned “working families” in The Australian.
” I think Mr. Rudd should stop talking about his opponents’ negativity as though it is only one side of politics which engages in it.”
That is not the point. The point is for him to distract Howard’s campaign. Howard’s campaign has been negative and it is fine for Rudd to point it out and of course Rudd’s anti-anti ad is itself negative camaigning.
AND if Rudd raises awareness of Howard ad ‘negativity’ in the voters mind they will notice less the message of Howard’s adds and see and think more about the negativity of them. Thats the ploy – so it is a legitimate tactic as it seeks to negate the effectiveness of the oponents campaign.
General alert to mums with babes in Parramatta. If you are approached by the Liberal candidate Colin Robinson – gather your bubs and RUN!
He was quoted in today’s Parra Advertiser: “Over the next six weeks, my priorities are beating this flu and getting my name in front of people.”
LTEP, if you think no seats will change hands in Victoria you are seriously mistaken. Both parties know the swing is on here. The Libs are looking at at least three and maybe five losses. In NSW, Macquarie is already a Labor seat on the new boundaries. The seat you are missing is Parramatta, a certain Labor gain. In Qld, you have been spooked by one dodgy poll. There are local polls showing Labor ahead in both Herbert and Leichhardt. I’m not persuaded about Leichhardt but Herbert is looking very likely for Labor. Blair is also likely acording to my sources. I will allow you no change in WA although I think Labor will win Hasluck and won’t lose Cowan. Solomon is unknowable. So if we say NSW 4, Vic 3, Qld 4, SA 3, Tas 2, that makes 16. And that’s a conservative estimate. It omits Page, for example.
Without Labor’s tax policy to be compared/challenged with, for now Howard can go on boasting about his $34b tax cut.
Can we assume that since Labor tax policy/plan is released after,
it will be superior to Howard’s?
Lefty E @89:
“There’s a growing economic consensus out there that the LNP tax cuts are inflationary. Where’sw the critical heat?”
There is no critical heat because they know the tax cuts will not be inflationary if, and only if, the Government:
(a) raises other taxes; and/or
(b) cuts expenditure substantially.
Super could be a sitting duck for (a).
As for (b), try not to be a single mum on benefits, or anyone on any sort of benefit for that matter.
Adam, thankyou. I’ve been struggling with Vic. Some commentators say big swings, some say little swing.
Do you think Isaacs could fall?
Adam, LTEP, Peter Tinley will win Stirling. As someone told me yesterday, Michael Keenan is all teeth and no bite (a reference, for those of you who don’t live in Stirling, to Keenan’s ubiquitous grinning visage, plastered on bus-stops everywhere). Tinley needs only 1800 votes to wipe Keenan’s smile off our streets.
adam what’s your take on page?
Ashley @ 100,
I asked that same question yesterday. From the responses I got, it seems that it is considered unlikely that Gavan O’Connor would have a significant impact on the outcome in Corio, for the simple reason that he has declared so late in the game. I would expect him to suck some votes from Labor, so maybe Corio will be one of those few seats where there is a TPP swing to the Liberals (but not enough for Labor to lose).
I don’t suppose it really matters whether O’Connor wins or not. Even in the unlikely situation that he was to win, he is hardly going to support a coalition government.
Can I ask, how is it that LTEP always seems to get the first comment on each thread? He was first yesterday and he’s first again today…
My sources won’t tell me the details of the ALP’s polling in Vic 🙁
But I gather they are increasingly optimistic about La Trobe, Corangamite and McEwen, a little less so about Deakin (which doesn’t surprise me). Landeryou had some gossip yesterday about Smith being worried about Casey – which is on 11% so if that’s true there’s a big swing brewing in the Range Rover surburbs. There will be a big Labor recovery in the seats that swung against L*tham last time – Calwell, Holt and Isaacs. The outgoing member in Isaacs had no personal vote to lose so I don’t think there’s any problems there.
I have no personal knowledge about Page – where Richard Jones and Oakeshott when we want them? But the general view is that Saffin is a well-liked figure and should run the Nats close.
Yes. Arthur Coles and Alexander Wilson, the two Independents who switched sides in 1941 to put Fadden out and Curtin in, represented two very conservative electorates.
In my view Windsor’s announcement (that he will back whichever side has the most seats, and if they both have the same number of seats whichever side got the most votes) makes Katter a busted flush. With Windsor (whose seat is also conservative, by the way) taking that position, it will be nearly impossible for Katter to take one at variance. Especially since, in any plausible scenario where Katter’s one vote actually matters, he will not be able to give the other side a stable majority by opposing Windsor, but only to produce a tie, almost certainly forcing new elections, which _everybody_ will hate.
(If the result is 73 ALP, 72 Coalition, and _five_ Independents, and Windsor stands by his word and backs the ALP, and the three new Independents all line up with the Coalition, then Katter’s support could put the Coalition over the line. But I don’t consider that a plausible scenario.)
51 Darn. Please don’t insult Collingwood supporters.
Those anti-union ads are totally dishonest, but, like the interest rates scare campaign in the last election, they are very effective in swinging votes away from Labor. Little old ladies will be terrified at the prospect of having rough, tough unionists in positions of power. That’s the irrational reaction. The facts speak otherwise:
1. The Labor Party emerged as the political arm of the industrial movement. Naturally many of its leading figures have been trade unionists.
2. Trade unions are not evil. They are an essential part of the democratic process. The first thing Hitler did was destroy trade unions and the workers’ political parties.
3. Many trade union leaders have served as prime minister with distinction. Chris Watson showed it could be done. Andrew Fisher laid the foundations for the Australian navy, the Commonwealth Bank and the national capital. Billy Hughes carried on from Fisher the prosecution of World War I. Jim Scullin defied royalty to establish our first homegrown governor-general. John Curtin is revered as the saviour of Australia after the conservatives failed us in World War II. Ben Chifley guided our post-war reconstruction. Bob Hawke and Paul Keating modernized the economy and laid the foundations for the current boom. Hardly traitors and wreckers.
4. If Kevin Rudd’s front bench comprises 70 per cent trade union leaders – and it’s straining definitions to produce that figure – then that’s nothing unusual. Curtin’s first government had a 68 per cent trade union component. He was resoundingly re-elected and the number went up to 73 per cent.
5. Modern trade union leaders are extremely well educated, with many holding multiple degrees. They are well equipped to serve the public – witness Bill Shorten at the Beaconsfield mine disaster or Greg Combet in his battle to achieve justice for asbestos victims.
6. Still not convinced? Well at the end of the day, Kevin Rudd – unlike Fisher, Hughes, Curtin and Chifley – will still have to answer to a hostile Senate. There’s nothing risky about electing a fiscally conservative Rudd Government.
53 sean It was quoted by John Faine. No further info, although Barry Cassidy said he hadn’t heard anything.
In regards to Page, Piers Ackerman did a hack job on Janelle Saffin (the Labor candidate there) on Monday:
http://blogs.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/piersakerman/index.php/dailytelegraph/comments/im_jan_im_here_to_help_militants/
Anyway, since then, Sportingbet has recorded a movement towards the Nationals candidate from Nats $1.70/Lab $2.10 to Nats $1.55/Lab $2.35. Not sure if the two are related, or whether its just reflecting the general increase in betting on the Coalition since the election was called. I, personally am annoyed, as I’ve already bet some money on Labor in Page @ $2.10, so I’m missing out on some better odds now…
I’m gobsmacked at Hockey’s declaration that unions are ‘finished’. Not long ago, the AES study showed Howard winning over some 40% of the union vote. Presumably it’s sacrificed those votes to shore up its base.
Desperation or a winning strategy?
I know it’s late in the day (the decade?) for Labor to speak up for the very unions that help fund it. But if we don’t hear a few Labor heavy-hitters speak up, I’d conclude that Labor focus groups show that unions are really on the nose, at least with swinging voters – ie the govt is on a potential winner.
Labor has two obvious responses: the govt is playing Class War, and it reveals they want WorkChoices to go further.
(And I say all this agreeing with the govt on one point: the labor movement desperately needs to restructure its relationship. Unions pour millions into a party that spurns them – except as a route into parliament for factional hacks. And Labor has to wear the opprobrium of having too many relatively lame candidates and spokespeople propped up by bloc votes.)
Neilsen is out tomorrow so if Morgan is ready it will probably out this afternoon.
I do know the member for Mc Pherson is worried.
look at the swing required
If the Libs’ internals showed they were cutting Labor’s lead, we’d hear no end of it in the Oz.
In regards to Union people voting for Howard, in Eden-Monaro there are around 12,500 union members. Of that, i’ve heard that around 40% voted for Howard last election.
In Eden-Monaro, i think around 1800 votes need to change for Mr Nairn to be removed. If workchoices will drive half of those union members (and it seems it will) towards the ALP, the ALP will pick up Eden-Monaro on union votes alone.
Further, the demonisation of unions will not help the Libs here. A large amount (not sure of the exact number) of these 12,500 union members are CPSU members who are a little p*ssed off at being compared to thugs…..i’d suggest they’d prefer latte sipping chardonnay somethings to union thugs….
Bring back CL, I’d have thought Galaxy would be out tomorrow instead of Nielson, as it’s Galaxy’s turn. ACN had theirs weekend before last.
I get the feeling that Labor is holding back during the first week of campaigning, so they have more ammo for the remaining 5 weeks.
I think the big policy announcements will start this weekend (possibly tomorrow, in time for weekend papers).
I wonder how long they are going to hold off on negative ads… perhaps they are going to leave all that to the unions?
I’m waiting for the next round of union ads to start, because I think they will be much more effective in swinging (or retaining) votes than any scare ads that the government comes up with.
I don’t think Morgan is out today – their site doesn’t seem prepared for it yet. (Normally, they have a blank page ready to go about an hour before the figures come out)
Just what that poor grieving widow of the dead soldier needed right now – to be hugged by Howard in the middle of an election campaign.
Talk about crocodile tears.
Swing Lowe @ 111
I wake up early and almost the first thing I do is visit this site. Sad, I know… but it’s the place where you get any new polling results with the least cringe-worthy spin.
Graeme, some people claim the union scare campaign is to shore up their traditional vote, so they do no worse than they have at their lowest. Personally, I find it hard to imagine anyone is afraid of unions. I’m not a Labor Party member so I don’t have any personal interest in the unions. Why do union scares resonate when they seem like fairy tale baddies?
Re #14 (Arbie Jay)
The reason the parties ask you to forward their branded postal vote applications back to them is complicated.
Firstly they want to know if they really did waste all that paper. If the forms go back to them, they get to count how many come back shortly before they pass them on to the electoral office in one big envelope.
Secondly, they want to pre-guesstimate how many postal votes they will actually be getting, particularly those in marginal seats (they can pretty much tell from the postcode on your form, they may even make those ones a slightly different colour). It helps make the wait a bit less tense if there is no result declared in that division on the night.
Thirdly, it’s the party’s propaganda on the reverse, so the party gets to pay for the bill for all that reply paid postage. It’d be unfair on the AEC (which runs pre-poll voting centres that mostly removes the need for old fashioned postal voting) to saddle the AEC with a bill from the parties’ little publicity orgy.
If Leichhardt is looking that good for Labor, the Liberals are dead in Queensland.
Do Bob Brown’s positive comments about Labor, Rudd and Garrett and the fact that they will now direct more prefs to Labor suggest a Labor HoR/Greens Senate pref deal has been stitched up?
A concern troll is also a fictitious online identity whose proclaimed beliefs are not those its creator really believes and is trying to push.
The concern troll posts in web forums devoted to its declared point of view (for example, Democrats or fans of the Prius), and attempts to sway the group’s actions or opinions while claiming to share their goals but with some “concerns”.
For example, in 2006 a top staffer for Congressman Charlie Bass (R-NH) was caught posing as a “concerned” supporter of Bass’s opponent Democrat Paul Hodes on several liberal NH blogs, using the pseudonyms “IndieNH” or “IndyNH.” “IndyNH” was “concerned” that Democrats might just be wasting their time or money on Hodes, because Bass was unbeatable.
Suspicion of concern trolls is hard to verify without clearcut information about the IP number from which their posts originate, as there are people who naturally behave in such a manner. This is from wikipedia it might explain some of the odd posts that you read on blogs across the blogsphere.
Now that Gavan O’Connor has expelled himself from the Labor Party, presumably The Murdoch will start saying that Labor needs to win 18 seats. A bit sad after 31 years’ membership, but that’s what vanity does to politicians.
O’Connor should be thanking everyone for giving him a go and drift off into the night.
Duce are you saying “LTEP” is a concern troll?
LTEP – You are right on the money. “Unions, what unions?” I think that would be the response of most people. But when you take away their conditions (WorkChoices), we’ll that affects them. The polling shows this (doesn’t it?).
I think that’s what he’s trying to say, which I’m not even going to bother responding to.
Adam: oh, pfft. As I said, O’Connor is a popular local member who got branchstacked out of his seat by an obnoxious blow-in hack. He’ll find plenty of support. If I weren’t working full-time in Canberra, I’d be headed back home on election weekend to staff the polling booths for him.
I still don’t think O’Connor can win, but I’m starting to think it’s possible that he could theoretically surpass the Liberal candidate, Angelo Kakouras, especially in the wake of Kakouras’ colossally stupid remarks comparing union leaders to Nazis. The Advertiser seems to be giving O’Connor a good and positive run so far.
Neilsen is definately out tomorrow possibly hear about it tonight on the ABC although Laurie talked about it once.
I was only summising about Morgan given previous comments.
Gavin apparently has forgotten he lost the local votes when he lost his pre-selection. I can’t see many preferences from people voting for him gong to the liberals though.
Marles appears to me a reasonably impressive candidate.
There’s nothing to stop you using the postal vote service of one party and vote for the other.
I think the problem with some of the local members is they become, as Adam has said, a bit full of their own self-importance. They should remember the only reason they were elected in the first place is they stood for the party, be that liberal or labor. Generational change is important, and people really should accept that. Are you listening John ?
I am concerned that Howard is wasting time and money on Bennelong, because McKew is unbeatable.
Gavin O’Connor = Labcest victim
Bugger, I think I am posting on the wrong site.
O’Connor didn’t lose the “local votes”. He lost the branch votes because Marles (and the entire unpopular local machine known as the “Laborals” down there) stacked the bejesus out of the local ALP branches. He’s still considerably more popular than Marles.
I’m also not sure on what planet Marles would come across as a “reasonably impressive candidate”. He comes out of a position as a no-profile union official, comes across locally as really obnoxious (far above and beyond the manner in which he got preselected), and as I pointed out yesterday, the ‘Tiser hates his guts.
Welcome to the Senator’s new recruit “Ashley”. Is “Glen” on tonight “Ashley”? I missed the briefing.
And what about you Rebecca, How do you like the prospect of generational change in Geelong?
The first thing a disendorsed ALP candidate does when they announce they are standing as an independent is dis the factional system. Of course what they won’t acknowledge is that it was the factional system that got them their endorsement in the first place.
In Paterson Bob Baldwin is sounding very testy and unhappy with the world every time he appears on the media.
In earlier post I alluded to Labor holding back on policy announcements for tactical reasons and I now think that is correct. Rudd has called a press conference in Adelaide for later today. My guess is that Labor will launch a few biggies over today and tomorrow to get them into Weekend papers and also on the table before The Debate on Sunday(yes, Rudd will be there, can’t afford not to be).
I am interested in Shanahan’s claim that the liberals are doing daily polling.
Now if these would cost a lot if the MOE is to be respectable.
I thought their cash was a bit slowish so either they are going into large debt or their sample surveys are too small as they were in 1996.
Alex, watch as any policies the ALP announce sink to the bottom of the newsfeed faster than you can say ‘tax cut’.
Don’t expect a fair fight from the media this election.
Chris B (114) It seemed like an appropriate analogy to me. Many Collingwood supporters developed such a defeatist attitude from losing so many grand finals they no longer believed they could win the big one.
Despite Rudd’s brilliant performance all year and the massive lead Labor has in the polls it seems there are still some Labor supporters who don’t believe they can win.