D-day minus 37

Imre Salusinszky of The Australian reports that Liberal polling conducted last month has the Prime Minister “staring at defeat in his marginal northern Sydney seat of Bennelong”, with two-party support for Labor’s Maxine McKew said to be in “the low 50s”.

Ewin Hannan and Rick Wallace of The Australian talk of Labor hopes of winning five seats in Victoria, where hostility to WorkChoices is said to be driven by the state’s “egalitarian nature, strong unions and left-wing political roots”. The five seats are Deakin, La Trobe, Corangamite, McMillan and McEwen.

• Labor yesterday made an announcement on Queensland roads funding that focused on Brisbane, committing $500 million to the Northern Link tunnel joining the Western Freeway at Toowong in Ryan to a bypass at Kelvin Grove in Brisbane, and $70 million to connecting the Gateway Motorway to the Pacific Motorway in Bonner and Moreton. The former commitment has won applause from Brisbane’s Liberal lord mayor, Campbell Newman.

• Roads are also looming as a key battleground elsewhere: Ben Packham of the Herald-Sun reports that Labor will “today unveil a $600 million plan to upgrade the Western Highway in the first election pledge aimed squarely at Victoria”. The promise does not seem too finely targeted as far as marginal seats are concerned, although a big ticket upgrade between Melton and Bacchus Marsh is not far north of Corangamite.

• Local news site the Geographe Gazette reports that “former Liberal candidate for the state seat of Collie-Wellington, Craig Carbone, has informed Nola Marino that she is within ‘inches’ of being dropped as the candidate for Forrest”. There has been much talk that Marino might be threatened by independent candidate Noel Brunning, much of it coming from disgruntled Liberals.

• Rogue candidate corner. In Leichhardt, Ian Crossland of the Nationals has been rapped on the knuckles by party leader Mark Vaile for saying the Cape York Peninsula seat was “not an electorate for a woman”, referring to Liberal candidate Charlie McKillop. In Mallee, Labor’s perennial candidate John Zigouras has told local paper the Wimmera Mail-Times that the area is “redneck country surrounded by neo-Nazis”. In Corio, Liberal candidate Angelo Kakouros has told the Geelong Advertiser that “union bosses dictate similar to the way Hitler did during the world war about how we should live our life” (though he claims he was misquoted).

• Speaking of Leichhardt, a Cairns Post poll of 310 respondents from September 22 had previously escaped my attention. It had Labor candidate Jim Turnour on 44 per cent of the primary vote, with Charlie McKillop on 37 per cent and Ian Crossland on 5 per cent. With the Greens on 10 per cent, this would suggest a comfortable win for Labor.

• Bob Brown has told the National Press Club the Greens will run fewer open tickets at this election than in 2004, meaning more preference recommendations to Labor.

• The always unmissable George Megalogenis unpacks the electoral significance of the oft-mentioned “working families” in The Australian.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

664 comments on “D-day minus 37”

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  1. Chris Curtis, the other thing is I hate is managerialism as currently practised in Vic. health. I’d rather people who actually cared about people have some power to do something meaningful.

  2. “Put simply when will the Labor Party have the guts and stand by its foundations”…

    This and the Hawke/Keating/China economy are the issues Labor should have been promoting a few years ago – because they are true and important and would have become positives for Labor.

  3. Great to hear Bailey will get a chance to destroy that buffoon Hockey live on TV. I’ve met Mike many times and seen him in action MC’ing at large funcitons. A complete natural, very personable and genuine. I know he’s a real roughie for North Sydney, but he could really resonate there. A professional, intelligent guy, verses a dope who has been promoted way beyond his level of incompetence. Union bosses, union bosses, union bosses, union bosses, union bosses, union bosses, union bosses, union bosses,…

    … you see Joe. It gets boring even to your own natural constituency. But keep it up son, you make Mike a better bet every time you open your gob.

  4. [So, the evidence mounts! I ask again, how many former union BOSSES are in the government front bench??]

    Joe Hockey was a student union boss as well.

  5. “The latest update is:

    Total votes 16000

    Howard 71%
    Rudd 29%”

    It is so utterly nonsense you would think they would be embarassed to put it on tv. My how the viewers will be surprised with the next ACN [I hope].

  6. Darn @ 550, they don’t need to tamper with the votes. That’s just the sort of voting intention I’d expect from their audience. Dumb as planks, incapable of independent thought. Why else would they watch that bilge?

  7. I too wish Labor would stand by its past record more than it has, but if elected into government, I suspect that they will feel more secure in highlighting the many positive contributions of Hawke and Keating.

  8. I haven’t seen so much backseat driving since I was twelve! If all you armchair critics want to get rid of Howard so much, stop whingeing, go down to your Labor candidate’s campaign office tomorrow morning, get a bunch of Kevin07 stuff, and start handing it out at your nearest shopping centre, or stick it in letterboxes in your street. The campaign is rolling, it’s not going to deviate to right or left because of a lot of petty bourgeois bloggers offering unsolicited advice, ok? Either get on board, or pipe down.

    Back later

  9. I don’t think any thinking person has any major problems with unions, Edward. Reviewing most problems in the world today… it’s quite astonishing… given the Liberal smear/fear thing… how few of those problems can be linked to the union movement.

  10. Harry you are absolutely correct.. noticed in The Age today one hospital in Melbourne has a chairman by the name of Ralph Willis, former Keating Government Treasurer, The article goes on to state that the hospital has supposedly invested significantly in some prime mortgage funds in the U.S and may be encountering some losses.. Is this the way to run a hospital i ask… and should it be using taxpayers money to do so?

  11. Please, I don’t want to think about Glen’s and ESJ’s dangly bits. Could someone please remove the image from my brain.

  12. ESJ, name one financially responsible policy put forward by Howard, just one, and we can debate that. You do study economics at high school I trust.

  13. I would love to be rich enough to fund a TV ad (along the lines of GetUp!’s Climate Cleverer ad) showing the Coalition Front Bench and their union links, in perfect parody with the Liberals’ stuff.

  14. #
    Adam Says:
    October 18th, 2007 at 8:49 pm

    I haven’t seen so much backseat driving since I was twelve! If all you armchair critics want to get rid of Howard so much, stop whingeing, go down to your Labor candidate’s campaign office tomorrow morning, get a bunch of Kevin07 stuff, and start handing it out at your nearest shopping centre, or stick it in letterboxes in your street. The campaign is rolling, it’s not going to deviate to right or left because of a lot of petty bourgeois bloggers offering unsolicited advice, ok? Either get on board, or pipe down.

    Back later
    Or you could support your local green candidate and not have to wear silly kev07 shirts

  15. Mr Rocket,

    “Graeme” at 502 summed it all up perfectly.

    The Senator sent word through he is very pleased with the results on today’s thread.

    You suspect moi, “Glen” and “Tabitha”, have you ever considered “Adam” may be playing a double game?

  16. My heart says Rudd should get out there and respond to the coalition in kind. Point out the obvious hypocracy, the deviousness and utter contempt for the elctorate in trying to buy another two terms for $35 per week. But it’s the fighter that lands the last combination that usually wins the fight. Howard would love an opportunity to try to flip the ALP onto its back. That’s why he wants the debate on Sunday; to tease out something he can twist and turn onto Rudd in following weeks. I reckon his evident frusatration is that Rudd hasn’t yet given him an issue.

  17. 570 ShowsOn:

    So if it was taken then, the Tax Cuts would have been front and center in the media, and voters minds. Possibly also the most rosy portrayal of this policy was then (before people had a chance to think it through), and the attack on the ALP for not releasing their policy was on and “newsworthy”.

    If the numbers haven’t moved or gone backwards for Rattus, under those circumstances, then there will be panic and despair in Lib Central.

    Will be interesting to watch the commentary if Morgan shows a move to the Libs, but ACN shows one the other way.

  18. What Graeme said about labor and the unions could easily be said about the Nationals and farmers. I still don’t see how removing unions from Australia and the world ‘fixes’ anything…

  19. Yeah, and see… Adam, love him or loathe him… 🙂 – he’s going by his real name (unlike us, Edward) so no, I don’t suspect him of playing a double game.

  20. Good point GG @ 577.

    I’m constantly surprised by how many conservatives are self hating gays. It would explain some of the more bizarre posts. The self hating I mean.

    Oh yeah, what’s the interest rate?

  21. [If the numbers haven’t moved or gone backwards for Rattus, under those circumstances, then there will be panic and despair in Lib Central.]

    The Liberals knew they had to start the campaign with their biggest policy announcement. There are now two schools of though forming about this: 1) If they don’t get any bounce in the polls then that is it, they are done for 2) They announced this economic policy this week because they don’t think it will change votes until the week of the vote.

    I’m erring towards school #1 because Liberal supporters want to see a sign that things are improving to motivate them to keep campaigning. If there is no movement, some of them may start to give up, which will just wreck their campaign.

  22. Unfortunately some of us have to work…but even if i wasn’t i wouldn’t be helping anyone… tend to think that both parties have little in the way of vision to offer…Although Labor is the better party by a mile..
    It is lacking a willingness to do things properly on Housing affordability it is all talk.. feel sorry for people trying to pay a house off..
    And glib promises on shopping prices with a study, bet you it does nothing.. just image the big retailers against any action… More money for consultants to complete a study…
    And on climate change we have “clean coal”.. tinkering and sitting back and doing nothing…Climate change will be a huge issue and unfortunately Labor doesn’t seem to get it… One has to ask why are businesses all around this country allowed everyday to keep their lights on, on all those skyscapers each night in our capital cities.. what a waste of energy and greater greenhouse gas….
    What this country needs is a party willing to stand up and act sensibly and correctly… and where will our politicians be in ten years living of their superannuations and enjoying life whilst we cop their policies…

  23. Marky, Marky

    Dont come on here and be the big green sook.

    Tell us exactly how is “labor the better party by a country mile” and then say in the earlier sentence they both have little vision.

    Justify your opinion and preferably with a fact or two!

  24. Damien J @ 573

    Would be interesting if the whole Labor strategy of the first week is to deny Howard anything to attack in the debate. That Howard would only want a single debate after the first week would have been about as hard to foresee as the L plate ads and the anti union rhetoric. I thought today would have been the day for a big announcement, but maybe it’s all about giving him no oxygen at all.

    Keating smashed Hewson with the GST in debates 2 and 3 back in 93, Howard however won’t have any ammo. Nothing new announced, so what, he goes Rudd for not having any policies for Rudd to then use the next 5 weeks to lay out the platform. All the time Rudd will goad Howard about more debates, but Johnny has wedged himself. He needs the extra debates to have a shot at laying a glove, but he can’t accept as to do so would be to confirm the hopelessness of his position, and an admission that he is in fact Rudd’s bitch.

  25. It is a least ratifying Kyoto, doing something about Broadband although i am worried because Conroy is the Minister and he’s likely to stuff it….
    Workchoices… would be the better party on issues such as human rights, migrants and putting them in detention centres, the Iraq war and a more progressive and inclusive foreign policy, and a more collaborative, and inclusive bureaucracy one which is respected and allowed to function without a gun pointed at its head.. A government not willing to interfere in the bureaucracy and our media institutions such as the ABC and SBS, a government committed to reconciliation and aboriginal rights instead of one committed to taking their land of them and handing it to big pastoral owners and the mining companies… A government committed to providing funding for the arts, health and education and one willing to at least allow all students an equal chance to a degree to be a a part of such, I could go on.. but it will at least have people who have a conscience within its ranks unlike this the Coalition government who have people clearly interested in the wealthy and religious xenophobias and are more interested in wasting money on wars, advertising and consultants and bloody footy grounds…

  26. Any leaks on tomorrows poll out there yet ?

    [Crikey.com.au Tips & Rumours

    Overheard at Fairfax. A couple of the political reporters talking about the ACNielsen Poll that will be published tomorrow on the election. They were saying that Rudd would be very happy with the outcome, and the Labor primary vote has gone up!]

    The results should be up on the SMH and The Age websites at 12:30 AM EST

  27. Ut oh, the sky fell in again tonight [apparently all ex union officials or associates are evil incarnate and economic vandals]; wish they would forewarn me so I can at least ‘get inside’ first.

  28. [It’s absurd to have the debate this early. No one is going to watch it when the election is over a month away. Waste of time.]

    That’s exactly why Howard is having it now.

  29. [The Galaxy phone poll was conducted on Tuesday and Wednesday evenings and is based on the opinions of 800 voters across Australia. ]

    What’s the MoE on this ?

  30. Harry ‘Snapper’ Organs (525 and 551),

    I will make just four brief points because I think I remember that this site is supposed to be about psephology:
    1) I accept the need to move nurses from one part of a hospital to another, but not at the price of ratios disappearing or becoming meaningless;
    2) I do not trust those with power in any bureaucratic system because I have seen what they almost invariably do with it;
    3) managerialism is a disease which afflicts education too;
    4) the nurses will win, just as the police did – and the teachers will surrender (as they always do) and go back to whinging (as they always do) next year.

  31. He is a sneaky weaky… that is why their is only one debate and it is being held in the first week. Learnt the lesson after Hewson had a debate in the final week and lost soundly, but Hewson had at least some integrity and courage… and was willing to put his policies before the people, unlike Howard who hid them and then came up with non core promises and core and never ever GST…and a code of ethics for Mp’s which he never abided by.. put simply rules to suit as you go along…..Mr sneaky weaky…

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