Morgan phone poll: 59-41

Possibly presaging a future pattern of early-week phone polls to tie us over until the Friday face-to-face, Roy Morgan brings us a phone survey of 611 respondents showing Labor leading the Coalition 59-41 on two-party preferred, and by 50 per cent to 36 per cent on the primary vote. Morgan alternated between phone surveys and larger-sample face-to-face polls until the end of August, after which it moved exclusively to face-to-face.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

495 comments on “Morgan phone poll: 59-41”

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  1. 333
    Marky Marky says Says:

    ” as i write this i see the Arctic for the first time ever melted through so boats can now travel through it”

    I’ve heard is said, but it actually isn’t true even within recorded history, the north west passage was open in viking times, around 1100 AD.

  2. EStJ

    Brilliant! You are up there with JWH. Lettuce ,indeed. One of you is seriously smarter then the others. Glen’s clones have IQ’s between 95 and about 120.


    Alan H

    By the way, I am only a (very) part time academic. I started my own business in 1982. Software, for smallish companies like Boeing. But I’m sure I have never been truly successful, like you!

  3. Ed,
    I’m not trying to “break through”, and we are Not on the “same page”.
    I have read your comments, and if I have swayed you in the direction of The Greens then I am indeed doing my job. I am just stating the obvious about both the incumbent tragics and the would-be’s.
    I think most of us (voters) are tired of the nonsense that is our current political situation, and just want to get on with an election and some hope that a change will make a difference – even if it is only psychogically, as I doubt very much that it will be much more than that if Rudd wins.

  4. Alan H, I’m not sure you can be guilty of plagairism on blogs. But you should concisely outline your findings regarding Glen if you want to keep going on about this.

  5. Rudd didn’t look happy tonight on the Kerry O’Brien show. But by the end the stories and messages and issues had all turned into a kind of blur. What was it all about? Bali? Being a patriot? Being a hypocrite? Who? Abbott? Downer? Government advertising? Money? Plans and no plans and merit? You mean to say there’s an election coming?

    The strong image was the pine box. The guilty still end up dead. It takes time, but in the end they come fully rotted & ready boxed. It is a somewhat-satisfying image for those who want revenge: not as fulsome as hooded, noosed and long-dropped, or thoroughly shot to pieces, but still graphic enough.

    Capital punishment is not a fit subject for election campaigns, specially this one.

    Poor McLelland. He wedged himself, it seems. But still, Howard making a big thing of his ozziness and giving the ok to executions and Downer being ever more pompous by the hour – they’re enough to make me vomit.

  6. I think that, should you support the death penalty then you should be prepared to perform it on someone. Maybe the Indons could offer the opportunity to Howard, or the Liberals could auction it off as a fund raiser. On the other hand, from the rantings on this site maybe Australia should become an Islamic State and introduce Sharia law.

    And for those of you who missed the Labor Campaign briefings, the instructions were – don’t be the headlines for two days. On that basis McClelland still has 24hrs.

    And for those of you in for a good execution or two or …… fifteen.

  7. BO 356 – I was beginning to worry you wouldnt be on tonight. Are you a pysch of some sort?

    Your analysis/post suggest you are?

  8. Now there’s a good name for lil john: “his ozziness the member for kirribilli”

    howdy ESJ. all well tonight? I can’t stay. see ya’ll another time.

  9. nah, I’m beyond redemption – Vote-a-matic told me so (and who can argue with newscorp?)… I enjoyed Mr. Howard begging me to change my mind though!

  10. If we must keep on about the death penalty -and I really thought this country had moved beyond this, I would like you all to remember Van Ngyuen’s execution. The horrible reality and barbarism of it. And let’s move this nonsensical debate on: we are surely better than this.

  11. CTEP:”Anyhow I get the distinct feeling this is all going to devolve into nonsense so best take my leave now! ”

    Wow, that sounds like my cue…

    ESJ: “By god, if there is something that annoys me about the ALP it’s this father/son – father/daughter thing that’s been going on for too long.

    Edward, remind me what Alex Downer’s dad is known for? And his grandad, John? And what are JWH’s sons up to these days?

    And what, precisely, is wrong with dynastic tendencies in the professions anyway? Should doctors’ kids not become doctors (eliminating half the profession)? Are the Packers as bad an idea as they look?

  12. Nath,

    I never said anyone was ‘guilty’ of plagiarism. I simply used the software available to me to find out where Glen got the content of his rants from. Lo and behold, word for word from the Liberal website, or sometimes just word for word identical to the late, unlamented, Steven Kaye.

    I think most of us, on this blog, are real people. Some aren’t. They are several people. And they stay up all night (nearly). And they pump out Liberal propaganda, verbatim. Sad, really.


    Alan H

  13. ESJ –
    (you may be sadly disappointed!)
    Perhaps if you would like to make a donation the campaign would have more resources to put photos on the web.

  14. All the strong supporters of the death penalty should spare a thought for the Australian Drug Mules – Bali 9 who have been sentenced to death as well.

    What should Australia’s position be in regards to the Bali 9? Should they be spared or should they die?

  15. Alan H I have been known to lurk on this blog, when I’m doing serious procrastination, for twenty hours at a time. And it’s true the entity known as Glen does seem to have a number of heads. I commented yonks ago, watching him for a few days, that he started out in the morning as Nice Glen, became Logical Glen after lunch, and deteriorated into Raving Incoherent Glen by the evening. I think at the time I put it down to him blogging with a slab of VB next to him. Your call is probably more accurate.

    That said, if Glen didn’t exist we’d have to invent him. Disagreeing with the odd Greens candidate just isn’t the same.

  16. Well of course there is no “proof” from Alan H mere assertion.

    The People’s Court finds Alan H guilty and sentences him to a horsewhipping at a date to be fixed.



  17. Crispy,
    I have also had some doubts about Glen (and Stephen Kaye’s) identities. However. as one of the seemingly few women bloggers on this site, I am ever hopeful that Janette has been getting her 2 bob’s worth in.

  18. My Electorate (Fisher 10% swing needed) is a rusted-on retirement demographic coalition support seat. I keep asking myself why I choose to live where I am essentially disenfranchised, but then I realise that so are about 70-75% of the voters in this country, one way or the other!
    Then a ray, probably small, but nevertheless something appears. A local media personality, radio and print mainly has thrown her hat in the ring as an independent. Caroline Hutchinson is her name and she is very well respected here as a sensible, intelligent and caring person.

    Just possibly she could give the incumbent, Peter Slipper, who has had a most unspectacular career as a do-nothing backbencher, apart from a brief term as an Under-secretary, (unceremoniously dumped after one term), quite a run for the money if the early comments I am hearing are representative.
    The general feeling here seems to be summed up in a bumper sticker doing the rounds which states ” Give Slipper the Boot”

  19. I think if we personally support the death penalty then we should also be willing to do the execution, so that we understand that it is us doing the killing and not ‘government’. That would certainly ensure [one hopes] that it gets implemented only rarely, if at all.

    I am more into life long austere incarceration for people sworn to evil. A living death in some isolated place is certainly more of a punishment that a martyr’s death.

  20. Ah sorry EdwardSJ. I do have trouble following your comments sometimes because you don’t use those html codes to differentiate your own thoughts from quoted slabs. (Nor do I, for that matter, but I stick in inverted commas for clarity.)

    I’ll just have to try harder.

    This was you, however at 9.31pm:

    “I think today guarantees parliament will be back next week – a little pressure and who knows which hereditary peer might drop the ball on the Labor front bench.”

    ‘Hereditary Peer’. Are you running with Mr Rocket’s baton or not?

  21. Crispy 376

    I do broadly agree with Mr Rocket’s sentiment. I dont think the sins of the father should be visited upon the son or daughter but there are a lot of hereditary peers in both parties but more so in Labor.

  22. [the sad thing is it would beat Australian Idol on the ratings. All those Evangelicals would love it, in the name of the Lord.]

    And once the trap door/trigger etc is pulled, the camera then cuts to Mark Holden doing one of his famous “Touchdowns”.

  23. [And Howard would be watching the cricket. again.]

    Perhaps the executions could take place in the middle of the pitch during the Lunch Break – Kill 2 birds with one stone so to speak.

    (yes, this is decending into Black Humour).

  24. EStJ,

    I notice that Glen is notably silent. I have decided to turn my investigation of this strange phenomenon into a full scale op-ed piece, as I can fit it in around my other activities. You, and the rest of your cabal, fascinate me.

    Just now, other priorities intrude. Never fear, I will be back.


    Alan H


    All generalisations are false

  25. A comment on #379, and others like it. I ask those considering taking a potshot at a religious group to perform the following exercise before hitting “submit comment”. Read aloud what you are about to say, but in place of the name of your target religious group, say “Muslims”. If the sentiment thus amended offends you, perhaps you need to reconsider what you are saying.

    William Bowe

  26. I was just reading Howard’s comments on the death of Trooper Peace in Afghanistan. What a strange and unpleasant man Howard is.

    First you get two basic sentences of condolence:

    “It’s very sad what has happened to Trooper Pearce.

    “I send my love and my prayers and my sympathy to his family.”

    Then he segues straight into Howard the wedge-meister, without even drawing breath.

    “I don’t seek to evade in any way the decision I took to send Australian forces to Afghanistan … or indeed anywhere else.

    “I am more than anyone else responsible for the men and women of our forces being overseas and I will never run away from that and I won’t seek to shift the responsibility to other people.”

    Like that little focus group-driven (and very timely) stab at the end?

    Yes, it’s all very sad, but remember folks … it’s all about me.

    What a weasel he is.

  27. Interesting that Lateline hardly touched on the Death Penalty story other than the normal political wrap up.

    Is the story running out of puff already?

    As it is now well established form for this Govt, whenever they get an edge they completely overplay their hand because they are so desperate for any chink in the Rudd armour.

    This Govt has to do a lot better than the incompetence of the race card by Andrews, hyberbole by Costello, sly dog whistle by Howard and feigned indignation of Downer.

    We’re only missing the poisonous bile from Abbott to complete the now well rehearsed 11 year Howard mission to kill off compassion, dignity, integrity and the Aussie fair go.

  28. Adam #277 I’m not of his faith, or any other if it comes to that, but on this I think Pell is right.
    The environmental movement won’t ever attempt to give scientific evidence about their claims of man-caused global warming through the increased carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, undoubtedly caused largely by burning fossil fuels – but not undoubtedly causing catastophic rising temperatures!
    Why won’t they, because the scientific evidence doesn’t exist. if it did it would be being trumpeted around the world by them. All they have is predictions for the year 2100, based on computer models for which they refuse to publish the data input to allow independent validation of the results.
    This is classic propaganda- make a claim that can’t be verified, proved or disproved, but so dire that it requires immediate and costly action
    particularly in grant money to support research. The most well understood equation in the academic world is said to be “Problems = Funding”.
    I expect marginalising comments about “trolls” etc. I just hope those who make them have spent as much time as I have investigating the enormous volume of studies (for and against) available before arriving at a considered position on the subject.

  29. In a few weeks time people will only remember that an Australian soldier sadly died in Afghanistan and that we remain there and in Iraq. The fact of our continuing involvement in those places may cause the electorate to feel more uncomfortable.

    One would think that Howard’s lack of an exit strategy from Iraq will resonate more strongly with the electorate if it is raised during the campaign.

  30. [If the sentiment thus amended offends you, perhaps you need to reconsider what you are saying.]

    What if one prefers taking potshots at all religions equally?

    Yesterday I proposed that all religious fundamentalism should be opposed, but was accussed of defending muslim terrorists. In fact, I was condeming all terrorism, be it religiously inspired or otherwise.

    ADAM: Apparently Mike Kelly’s grandfather Benjamin George Kelly ran for Eden-Monaro in 1940. Do you know his party affiliation, or was he an independent?

    I tried here, but the link was broken:

  31. William, everyone knows that for some bizarre reason Isl*m is the only religion one may not criticise if one is on the left. So today we have the strange spectacle of atheist feminist socialist gay liberationists defending people who would cheerfully cut their heads off, stone them to death and/or bury them alive (two men were sentenced to 7000 lashes for sodomy in Saudi Arabia just recently). You can ridicule the Pope, Fred Nile, Jerry Falwell etc etc, but no breath of criticism of Isl*m or any M*slim personage is permitted, apparently out of solidarity with the oppressed people of Whereverstan who are currently being aggressed by George W Bush.

  32. [William, everyone knows that for some bizarre reason Isl*m is the only religion one may not criticise if one is on the left.]

    That is rubbish. Yesterday I had two posts deleted because I condemed both Christian and Islamic inspired terrorism. I was, if anything, criticising RELIGIOUS influence on promoting radical beliefs.

    Some how you attacked my comments, even though we are both athiests.

    [You can ridicule the Pope, Fred Nile, Jerry Falwell etc etc, ]

    Why can’t these people face criticism AS WELL as criticising Islamic facism?

    Is it compulsory to criticise both religions in every post?

  33. Been there –
    you are clearly not a troll, but a very wise and educated man. Problems=Funding. Brilliant!. we should stop all funding to solve any problems. That’ll fix’em.

  34. [ Isl*m is the only religion one may not criticise ]

    Don’t worry Adam. I’m sure you’ll be able to make up for everyone else.

  35. ShowsOn, your comments were not deleted because they “condemed both Christian and Islamic inspired terrorism”. They were deleted because they concerned a subject which I had declared to be closed.

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