Sources for courses

Phillip Coorey of the Sydney Morning Herald informs us that Labor internal polling conducted a fortnight ago points to an unlikely sounding 13 per cent swing in North Sydney, enough to tip Workplace Relations Minister Joe Hockey out of his blue-ribbon seat. This might easily be dismissed as a Labor diversionary tactic, but the report also refers to “suggestions in the Liberal Party in recent weeks” that Hockey might be in trouble. I was about to protest that such talk is familiar from the 2004 election, but Coorey’s source again pre-empts me: Hockey really had been struggling going into that campaign, but “Mark Latham’s attack on private schools helped revive his fortunes”.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

776 comments on “Sources for courses”

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  5. I’ve been hitting RELOAD every 2 minutes. All it says at the moment is “Fed vote” … Fed vote what?!? Goes up, goes down, collapsing, hockey sticks?!

  7. Hmmm slightly off topic but wtf is this about

    http://www.agimo.gov.au/services/consultation_blog

    The Australian Government is inviting community feedback on how the government can utilise new internet technologies to better consult with people.

    This consultation focuses on citizens: how they would prefer to use an online consultation website and what features they would wish to include. The government wishes to particularly encourage more people to participate in the government policy and service delivery development process.

    prediction 60/40

  9. Yo ho ho: The same reason they don’t pay the interviewers better – a higher fee would impact their bottom line and return to shareholders.

    My prediction: ALP 49:51 Coalition – JWH has had such a good week as have Hockey, Abbot, Coonan, et al

  12. [I hope its 53.5 Labor – 46.5 Coalition]

    It hasn’t been that close for 11 months, I doubt it would move that much in the space of 1 week.

  17. I love the way everyone bags Morgan as irrelevant yet here you all are champing at the bit waiting to find out what the latest poll says. If you think its that irrelevent don’t look, go the beach, walk the dog, GET BACK TO WORK!!!

  20. Howard’s election delay is like Dennis Conner in the last race of the America’s Cup. Connor sailed into the spectator fleet in the last leg of that race, deeper and deeper. Australia II followed… for a while. Finally somebody said, “WTF?” and our boat headed for the finish line.

    It was only then that the measure of Connor’s losing margin was realised.

    For Howard to (supposedly seriously) say he’s not calling the election because he wants to watch the Rugby semi-final is the last slap in the face to the Australian people. It’s just about his last chance to bask in reflected glory.

  23. BenC… yes I just heard him on The World Today saying the only thing he’d be concentrating on would be the historic semi-final clash between two traditional enemies etc. etc.

    The game is being played over the weekend.

  25. Gusface – maybe it’s in response to the hundreds (maybe even thousands) of complaints they get daily from people trying to report their incomes online at the Centrelink site. I don’t think I’ve ever been able to get through the process in one easy go and whenever I ring up to talk to someone, the staff always rail against the bloody website. It’s no wonder they are always frazzled.

  27. I wonder if the Australian captain is going to make any comments reminiscent of John Eales before the World Cup Final against England in 1999. We hope to beat them twice today, first in the game, and then in the referendum.

  29. Howard’s ‘love of sports’ has always got the sports fans on side with him. Rudd needs to find a sport to support, maybe lawn bowls. Seems there are a lot of younger generation going for itm, especially in Melb, (I heard it’s because the bowls clubs have cheap alcohol) and the old folk love it too.

  31. What sort of PM prioritises a quarter final rugby match over getting on with running the country/organising an election?

    We’re not talking a double header grand final weekend here. It’s 2 hours out of a weekend for goodness sake. Is it really that much of a distraction?

    Talk about desperate for an excuse to cling on to power.

  32. If he was living in Canberra, where he should have been all these years, there would be no reason not to take a trip next door in the morning even with the rugby on over the weekend. Okay the Administrator would have to fly to Canberra, but she could do that the night before. Perhaps he could of invited her over for tea and scones with Hyacinth, even slept over so the necessary would could of been done over breakfast.

  34. [If he was living in Canberra, where he should have been all these years, there would be no reason not to take a trip next door in the morning even with the rugby on over the weekend. ]

    Yeah, like Keating for the 1993 election, who drove to Yarallumla with his kids in a red Mitsubishi Magna.

  40. Crikey is reporting that the Coalition is 10.6% behind nationally on it’s own internal polling. It also suggests that in one “safe” Lib seat the swing is 16% to the ALP.

  41. Crikey’s latest email is saying that the Libs own internal polling has them 10.6% behind Labor, and the for a very safe seat with a ‘buffer’ of 14% is showing a swing to Labor at 16%

  42. Further to the 66/34 TPP Morgan result…

    Morgan writes: “Voters appear to have reacted negatively to recent rumours that the government is planning to crash an asteroid into lake Burley-Griffin during the election campaign.”

    More as it comes to hand…

  44. [Crikey is reporting that the Coalition is 10.6% behind nationally on it’s own internal polling. It also suggests that in one “safe” Lib seat the swing is 16% to the ALP.]

    Well, that would explain why the election hasn’t been called yet. 😛

    But how or why would it improve for the governmetn now? What if next week’s Newspoll is a 58/42 rogue, what does the government do then? Wait until January?

  47. Coalition polling: one safe seat 16% to ALP.
    Wonder which one?
    North Sydney?
    McPherson?

    The implication in the email is that the margin of said seat is around 14% (swing is 2% more than margin). McPherson is around there, though I think Grey is a good candidate (and that would explain Howard begging Wakelin to stay).

  48. [The implication in the email is that the margin of said seat is around 14% (swing is 2% more than margin). McPherson is around there, though I think Grey is a good candidate (and that would explain Howard begging Wakelin to stay).]

    If Labor are going to win Grey, then surely Boothby and Sturt are gone for the Liberals as well.

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