After a century as one of the nation’s most predictable seats, Wentworth entered the national spotlight in 2004 and again looms as one of the most intriguing contests of the coming election. Created at federation, Wentworth originally covered the entire coast from Port Jackson to Botany Bay, before assuming more familiar dimensions in 1913. It now takes in the mouth of Sydney Harbour and its southern shore from Watsons Bay and Vaucluse west to Potts Point, along with a stretch of coast running south through Bondi to Clovelly, and the northern part of Randwick. The wealth of the harbourside suburbs has made this a classic blue-ribbon seat, which has been held by conservatives of one kind or another since federation. Recent Liberal members have included Robert Ellicott (1974 to 1981), the Shadow Attorney-General who played a crucial tactical role in the Whitlam dismissal; Peter Coleman (1981 to 1987), conservative intellectual and father-in-law of Peter Costello; John Hewson (1987 to 1996), disappointing Liberal Opposition Leader; and Andrew Thomson (1996 to 2001), disappointing member for Wentworth.
Thomson was defeated for preselection ahead of the 2001 election by barrister Peter King, who in turn died by the sword in 2004 when Malcolm Turnbull (right) marshalled his considerable resources against him. Turnbull had been spoken of as a potential prime minister since coming to fame as a young lawyer in the early 1980s, when he succeeded in blocking the British government’s attempts to suppress former MI5 agent Peter Wright’s memoirs in the Spycatcher trial. In the 1990s he emerged as the chairman of the Australian Republican Movement, adding conservative leavening to a favoured project of the then Labor Prime Minister. He meanwhile made his fortune firstly in legal partnership with Gough Whitlam’s son Nicholas and later as a merchant banker, establishing business connections that contributed to his fundraising success as Liberal Party federal treasurer from 2002. Despite lingering resentment over Turnbull’s description of John Howard as “the man who broke the nation’s heart” on the night of the republic referendum, Turnbull’s move against King won at least the tacit support of the Prime Minister, who in normal circumstances could be relied upon to support sitting members. Wayne Errington and Peter van Onselen’s recent biography reports that Howard “believed that a failed preselection bid for Wentworth held the distinct possibility that Turnbull would quit party politics altogether and step down as treasurer, deterring donors from putting their hands in their pockets”. After much “recruitment” to local party branches by both sides, Turnbull won the preselection vote by 88 votes to 70.
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| Booth-level two-party vote from 2004, with colour coding showing suburban average weekly household income. The electorate-wide average household income figure is $1609, compared with a national average of $1027. The only suburb below the national average is Rushcutters Bay, immediately west of Darling Point. |
King subsequently refused to rule out running as an independent, eventually announcing he would do so at a press conference on Bondi Beach in the first week of the campaign. Despite vigorous campaigning attended by intense publicity, King recorded only 18.0 per cent of the vote and finished well behind Labor’s David Patch on 26.3 per cent. While Turnbull’s 41.8 per cent was well down on the 52.1 per cent King recorded as Liberal candidate in 2001, it converted into an unembarrassing 2.3 per cent two-party swing after distribution of King’s preferences. The swing nonetheless contributed to a long-term trend in the seat which made it appear of dubious long-term worth to Turnbull even before the recent redistribution. As noted in an analysis by former Labor staffer Shane Easson, the electorate was going through a relative population decline that had forced it to expand in area at six successive redistributions since 1955 (the most significant change coming in 1993 with the abolition of Phillip, which previously separated Wentworth from Kingsford-Smith). There were only two directions in which it could grow: into safe Labor Kingsford-Smith to the south, or even safer Labor Sydney to the west. Furthermore, the latter would be the more obviously appealing option for the boundaries commissioners, as Kingsford-Smith was shaped by the constraints of the ocean and Botany Bay. When the latest population calculations dictated that New South Wales lose a seat at the coming election, the result was predictable: Wentworth shouldered its share of the burden by absorbing an inner-city area noted for post-materialism and a high gay population. This area, which included the balance of Paddington, the harbour shore around Potts Point and most of Woolloomooloo and Darlinghurst, sliced the Liberal margin from 5.6 per cent to a decidedly uncomfortable 2.6 per cent.
Like no other electorate bar Bennelong, Wentworth has seen national issues assume local significance in recent months. Turnbull won promotion first to parliamentary secretary with responsibility for water in September 2006 and then to Environment and Water Resources Minister four months later, confronting him with issues of great sensitivity in his own seat. The most significant example has been the recent controversy surrounding Gunns Limited’s proposed Tamar Valley pulp mill in northern Tasmania, which was contentiously fast-tracked by Paul Lennon’s state Labor government. A campaign for Turnbull to intervene has won the support of celebrities including Cate Blanchett, Bryan Brown and Rebecca Gibney, along with businessman and prime ministerial confidant Geoffrey Cousins. In mid-September, Cousins embarrassed Turnbull by taking out advertisements in the local Wentworth Courier which asked: “Is Mr Turnbull the Minister For the Environment or the Minister Against the Environment?” Turnbull has said he will reach his verdict this week, and that he will follow the recommendation of the government’s chief scientist.
Turnbull’s other major source of publicity in recent weeks has been his role in the recent burst of leadership speculation. On September 11, Sky News reported that both Turnbull and Alexander Downer believed John Howard should no longer lead the Liberal Party. Amid speculation that Howard might be about to stand aside, Kerry-Anne Walsh of the Sun-Herald wrote of a “wild scenario doing the rounds” in which Turnbull would take the job if Costello proved reluctant to do so within weeks of an election. Subsequent reports spoke of Turnbull persuading a majority of Cabinet members that Howard should go, but of the idea meeting firm resistance from both the party room and the Prime Minister himself. Later in the day, Howard could be seen apparently chastising Turnbull on the floor of parliament. Two weeks later Turnbull was forced to rule out a future challenge to Peter Costello for the Liberal leadership, after earlier refusing to answer questions on the issue.
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| Booth-level two-party swings from 2004, with colour coding showing suburbs’ percentage of dwellings being purchased. All suburbs are below the national average of 32.2 per cent on the latter count. |
While Turnbull will be in real trouble if the anti-government swing is as much as current opinion polls indicate, there is reason to believe he has more padding than the notional margin suggests. In his aforementioned study, Shane Easson calculates an effective Liberal margin of 4.5 per cent after allowing for such influences as the “Peter King effect” and “potential Turnbull personal vote”. Figures from the 2004 election exaggerate the Liberals’ weakness in the newly added areas, due to the party’s lack of effort here at previous elections. In an electorate such as Sydney, the optimal strategy for the Liberals is to “play dead” in the hope that they might finish behind the Greens, who could then potentially defeat Labor with their preferences. This time around, these areas will be facing the full force of Turnbull’s well-oiled campaign machine. Furthermore, as noted by Russell Skelton of The Age, the electorate is not suffering the soft housing prices that are biting in more suburban seats like Bennelong. Some sources have suggested the party has greater fears for Howard’s seat than Turnbull’s, although reports of internal polling have painted a mixed picture. In August, Labor was variously said to have a lead on the primary vote of 47-42 and 44-42. Neither gels with a September report from the Sydney Morning Herald which had sources from both major parties speaking of 20 per cent support for the Greens (who have nominated mental health nurse Susan Jarnason). Conversely, The Australian quoted a “senior Liberal source” in late September saying Turnbull was “not in trouble”, and should thus approve the Tamar Valley pulp mill to shore up the Liberal member in Bass.
Labor’s candidate is George Newhouse (left), human rights lawyer and until recently mayor of Waverley. Newhouse’s legal clients have included Cornelia Rau and Vivian Solon, the victims of high-profile Department of Immigration bungles that respectively saw them deported and detained for nearly a year. He is also a figurehead of the electorate’s prominent Jewish community, which accounts for 14.1 per cent of its population against 0.4 per cent nationally. The community is particularly concentrated in the electorate’s north-east, accounting for 49.4 per cent of residents of Dover Heights. Newhouse was head-hunted by Kevin Rudd and installed as candidate by the party’s national executive, after the April national conference empowered it to avert faction-driven preselection stoushes by directly choosing candidates for 25 sensitive seats.
George, as you can see here. Rushcutters Bay has a median household income of $987 compared with a national figure of $1027 (I said nothing about Potts Point). However, this obviously says more about the number of single-income households than the level of income. My only error was to omit the word “household” from “average income” the second time I mentioned it in my caption, so I think the rudeness of your response was a bit excessive. Since getting things right means so much to you, allow me to mock you for referring to me as “you guys”. As you could have determined if you’d read this site for longer than five seconds before hitting the abuse button, there is in fact only one of me.
Mr King , I think was either neutral or gave his preference to labor
prior to election day …. but changed this on election day & supported
Mr Turnbull via his 2nd prefernces……. Did this lose the Liberals votes or not?
If it did Malcolm Turnbull is sitting on a slightly higher margin ….. maybe
up to 2% higher. if one looks at the pattern of 2pp … then it
is hard to see an ALP victory. who knows? I think Mr Turnbull has a better chance than John Howard though
l
With the completion of the NSW and QLD Federal redistributions in late 2006 the ALP was still extremely pessimistic about its chances of hauling in an additional 16 seats. The pendulum showed Labor could only win a majority on a uniform swing of 4.8% for which it would need to get 52.1% 2PP.
And then there was this creeping exceptionalism applying to Bennelong, Wentworth and QLD.
Hardly anyone thought Howard was in any trouble at all in his own seat, the exception being Malcolm Mackerras. I shared his view and my paper on Bennelong written last year was an attempt to demonstrate that the ‘Wilkie effect’ was negligible in 2004 in Bennelong and that not only was Howard’s margin of 4.2% real he was also in danger from the growing presence of Asian voters in his seat.
Eventually, most polls have borne out this assertion and Maxine McKew has fitted comfortably with the profile of the seat.
With Wentworth the view seemed to be Malcolm name, Malcolm money plus Peter King effect means Labor has no chance. As William Bowe has pointed out, Wentworth isn’t the seat it once was. Each redistribution since 1955 has added territory to Wentworth which has had the effect of diluting the always rusted on conservative vote of the harbour side suburbs of Vaucluse etc.
In my Wentworth paper I conclude King’s campaign did have a negative effect on the Liberal vote and for this and other reasons I said that the true margin Turnbull is defending is about 4.5% and not 2.5% as suggested by the pendulum. That still leaves Wentworth as a ‘must win’ for Labor to win Government.
On the issue of Turnbull’s money, well in 2004 according to his AEC return he spent about $600,000 to win Wentworth. And as others in different forums have claimed ( re the Gvt’s extensive advertising) too much can be counter productive.
Labor is targeting Wentworth with real money and resources for the first time since Federation. It’s preselected well with George Newhouse .
In recent months I think Turnbull has struggled. Howard has said no to some really tame cat same sex law reforms and then there’s the matter of the internally Lib generated ‘shit sheet’ on a Liberal Minister. Turnbull has also failed to generate momentum to the Government on climate change — all he’s done is to increase voter awareness and the climate of ‘change the Government’ to get the issue fully addressed. On the matter of the pulp mill I have no doubt that Turnbull was even prepared to wedge Howard to try to save Wentworth. However, in the leadership machinations he shot and weakened himself and now stands to wedge himself, whatever decision he makes.
Finally, I’ll put out a paper in the next few days re QLD. Anyone who’s had a close look at what happened in 2004 in QLD should know that Labor is poised to make very significant gains in several seats well above the 6% mark.
Shane, very interested to see your comments.
I tend to agree with your analysis of the true margin in Wentworth (4.5%), but I just don’t see it swinging that much. I think the true swing in Wentworth (ie. from 4.5%) is likely to be lower than the statewide swing.
Wentworth may not be what it once was, but it still is what it is. It’s tough for the ALP to win seats where the Liberal candidate is likely to win in excess of 45% of first preferences (Turnbull got 42% even with Peter King in the mix). A higher proportion of rusted-ons means fewer available swinging voters – which means the ALP has to get proportionately more of the swingers than they would in seats on similar (and even higher) margins.
For what it’s worth I don’t see Wentworth being a must win for the ALP – I think the ALP could win 25-30 seats without getting over the line in Wentworth.
I would imagine Turnbull to be safe. I spoke with him about 8 weeks ago now, and he seemed quite distracted and rattled. However, this was right about the time that the pulp mill issue had reached media crescendo, which probably accounted for his demeanor.
He has a far higher profile than in 2004, has wads of cash to finance a re-election and whilst we can rightly point to the canyon-like (both in width and in being very solid!) margin held by Labor over the Coalition, the Greens are polling weakly in NSW, to the extent that Nettle may not hold her senate seat. I’d expect the ALP to perform more strongly than last election but not enough with Greens preferences to topple him.
I also agree with Josh above, the ALP has far better options than this battle! If anything, it should be a blue-ribbon Green than ALP, but it isn’t even that!
Bass, Braddon, Moreton, Bonner are all much easier calls..
William @ 51, please, keep it on topic. The guys running this myspace site have pacifically requested it.
Dembo @ #56
“The guys running this myspace site have PACIFICALLY requested it.”
Peace man!
If Turnbell and Georgiou survive the Liberals have some hope.
Does anyone else forsee serious difficulties with Turnbull’s leadership aspirations, given the dominance of the extreme right in the NSW Liberal Party or am i getting a little too far ahead of myself?
Wentworth looks like being one of those rare Coalition marginals that’ll buck much of the swing to the ALP. I think there’s actually more chance of Bennelong than Wentworth falling to the ALP. Recent electorate polls and betting market odds seem to be indicating this.
Optimist Says:
Yes, he has to win his seat and the right have to face up to the fact that they have made a complete mess of it.
Shane will you make your Queensland paper available?
ggrgrrr, as someone who has to set up databases to call election results, I hate all this talk of ‘true margin’ when what people really mean is that the swing may differ from seat to seat. If there is a 2% swing in Wentworth, the result will be a margin of 0.5% after the election. Not a ‘true’ swing of 4% based on a ‘true’ margin of 4.5%. What everyone means is that if the swing is 4% across the country, it may well be 2% less in Wentworth. If on a booth by booth basis on election night the swing in Wentworth is 4%, Wentworth will fall because the measured margin in those booths is 2.5%, not a hypothetical 4.5%. It’s the frustrated statistican in me that’s gets irritated when people want to re-arrange the margins so that the swing becomes uniform from seat to seat, when in fact what happens is that the margins are fixed and its the swing that varies. The question is why swings are amplified or dampened from seat to seat, and for all the reasons everyone has discussed for Wentworth, it is a seat where the swing is likely to be dampened. Which to answer my own question, is why people who think in terms of uniform swing rather than variation in swing want to talk about ‘true’ margin.
Actually, an analogy is the poet who writes about the sun rising. Only the most pedantic would talk about the earth rotating to face the sun. You should ignore my rants, I’m having a tough week trying to get all the election night graphics to work correctly.
Coming from the neighbouring electorate of Sydney, very close to the new boundary of Wentworth, I can say that I disagree with a previous poster who said that the personal following of Tanya Plibersek in the newly added sections of Wentworth might reduce the Labor vote in those areas. Plibersek does not have a particulary high profile in the electorate.
I also think that some demographic factors are being overlooked. Much has been made of the deep blue areas in Vaucluse, Dover Heights etc. But these areas of the electorate are the least densely populated. The newly added areas in the Cross and Potts Point are predominantly high-rise or medium-rise apartment complexes with very high population densities (ie more voters). The region around Bondi Junction, similarly. The high number of renters in these areas, identified by the low home ownership figures on the second chart will be a significant factor.
I was a little surprised to see the number of Labor voting booths in the south of the electorate around Bronte. This is high-wealth territory. But largely younger proffessionals rather than the ‘old money’ in the north. The left leaning tendency is surely an indication of social liberalism rather than economic socialism. With the hot issues this election focussed on social issues, these issues should play positively for Labor in these areas.
Charles,
good point, but I’m thinking post election. The dominance of the extreme right in the NSW branch of the Liberal party may cause huge problems for Turnbull given his stance on issues like gay rights, the environment (actually admitting it exists) and republicanism. Four Corners did a piece on the NSW right in July last year called “The Right Stuff” that suggested that the domniance of these extremists is only going to grow in coming years. I think it will be very interesting to watch what happens to the Libs over the next 18 months, should they lose the election.
Antony Green #63,
thank you for providing some clarity.
Antony, I take your point. But the “true margin” is an estimate of what the margin would have been without the King factor. Another way of saying it is that local factors on the last occasion appear to have made the seat more marginal than it otherwise would have been. Of course, the swing this time will be measured from 2.5%… And there are “local factors” in every seat.
But oils ain’t oils. Wentworth will be much harder for the ALP to win than any of the other seats on similar margins.
There is a group of high-income private sector professionals and managers who are waiting for Costello, Turnbull has an appeal to this group more than Howard does and this accounts for his slightly better prospects in Wentworth, but the fact is that most seats especially urban ones will go with the swing. I agree with Shane on Queensland we may be seeing a realignment to Labor in Queensland (as has occurred on the state level) that may underpin a federal Labor ascendancy.
Re my earlier post, yes, oops, I forgot about Ted Mack. Very slack of me.
Re Antony’s post, I think the spectre of 1929 is hanging over this government more obviously with each passing week – the issue is essentially the same and the outcome looks like beign similar. Bruce was defeated by Ted Holloway, a veteran unionist who didn’t even live in the seat. (“A bootmaker, my dear!” my grandmother in Frankston recalled in horror.) I don’t think Holloway was ever in prison but it’s possible. He was secretary of the Trades Hall Anti-Conscription Committee in 1917 and it was possible he was jailed in connection with that, as was Curtin very briefly. This would be about the equivalent of Dean Mighell winning Bradfield. The main difference of course is that Kevin Rudd is about 20 times smarter than Jim Scullin.
Turnbull has announced that a decision on the pulp mill decision will be made public tomorrow.
Interestingly, he may be hoping that it will be drowned out in the noise of the election – I just read a rumour on a non-pseph site that all government paid advertising has been canned from Monday onwards.
An election announcement may be imminent, hold onto your hats people…
Have a kiss and a hug, Antony XO
Optimist, I’m talking post election. I don’t think the hard right will give up control of the party after the election, and I don’t think Turnbell will win his seat.
Buried in Shane Easson’s comment was the note: “Labor is targeting Wentworth with real money and resources for the first time since Federation.” You learn more here than you do reading the GG.
On the current poll figures I think Labor have this seat by about 6%. He may be able to hold the tide, but 6%.
It’s too late for the Liberals to swing back to the center, I don’t believe in “The narrowing”.
No. Talking about ‘true margin’ is assuming a uniform swing and modifying the margins to fit the assumption of uniform swing. The King factor may have altered the margin from last time, but it is expressed by dampening the swing this time. What everyone is really doing when they talk about ‘true margin’ is modify the Wentworth margin to correspond to a value of national swing where Wentworth would fall. Anyway, enough of my grizzle. If people want to assume uniform swing and modify the margins they can do so. One election night, I always ignore the national swing and operate entirely on the swing in each seat. It is always the most accurate way to pick the result.
Cherles,
so essentially we’re in agreement right?
I also think Turnbull is a good chance to lose Wentworth, but in the event he retains it, I’m guessing you see the same problems ahead for his leadership aspirations, given the dominance of the hard right in NSW.
Optimist
Yes 100% unfortunately.
Re Anthony Green: We all have our crosses. I agree though with your point. In my case, I felt entitled, in the immortal words of Senator Larry Craig to take ‘a wide stance’!!
NB I was dealing with the view of the commentariat and many in the ALP that Wentworth is out of reach. I have tried to estimate varoius effects including the King factor and then set these against the swing required.
And I’ll let you all in on another hint. The AEC today e-mailed everyone like me who is involved in election night analysis to inform us of the latest information on the media feed.
If Howard loses as badly as the polls currently indicate, neither Turnbull nor anyone in their right mind would want to be Leader of the Opposition. Becoming Leader immediately after your party has taken a heavy defeat is the worst gig in politics, since you are almost certain to lose the next election and then get axed by your party – think Hayden, Snedden, Peacock and numerous state examples. (Mike Rann is an obvious exception.) It might be better for Turnbull if he loses Wentworth. Costello would become Leader and lose the next election to Rudd, then Turnbull could come back and claim the leadership when it might be worth something.
Having said that I’m inclined to think Turnbull might hang on against even a fairly big statewide swing, for some of the reasons William mentions. If he does he would do well not to oppose Costello for the leadership.
Shane, I never win these arguments. Every time I re-calculate seats after a redistribution, someone always says that’s my prediction for the next election. They never understand what I mean when I explain it is actually my prediction for the last election, not the next election. Some Mackay newspaper has managed to say that I am predicting that De Anne kelly will win Dawson with a safe margin of 10%. No, that’s the result of the 2004 election, not a prediction. Anyway, nurse is coming with my medication so i better go.
Anthony, do you know whether those inside the parties make similar errors when discussing and strategising around “swings” or is there a greater level of sophistication than I am attributing to them?
Adam Says:
If the poll are right and “The narrowing” doesn’t occur in Victoria the Liberal Leadership will not be Costello’s problem.
Ray @ 42
“I suspect the next Liberal PM has not been born yet.”
Too right! – and he or she could well be one of the Rodent’s future grandchildren or great-grandchildren! 😉
NB Anthony, I agree with you. On election night I won’t be worrying about the Peter king factor either. At the ALP we’ll be looking at the swing only just as with you.
I’m also not arguing with you but rather have been responding to those who argue about this and that ‘special factor’ who in the case of Wentworth start with the proposition that Turnbull can’t lose and then build the arguments accordingly.
I’ve updated the post to acknowledge Adam and Antony’s contributions on the “conservative since federation” issue, and the erstwhile existence of the electorate of Phillip (thank you, Geoff Lambert).
Shane, you can you suggest a better way you might be described than “former Labor staffer”? Peter Brent’s suggestions are a bit informal for my purposes.
William I’d rather you didn’t link to my earlier comment since that will only draw attention to my egregious error in forgetting about Ted Mack 🙂
Your wish is my command, Adam.
Re #79. Leader of the Opposition may seem to be a poisoned chalice these days, but it isn’t always the case. Mike Rann, as you mentioned, is one. Bob Carr is another example. In fact, many of the recent state Labor leaders took control after a defeat.
Wentworth still looks pretty safe for Turnbull, but watch him spend spend spend to make sure he retains it.
Question for he can’t be bothered researching it himself.
What is the latest date JWH can go to the GG or his nominee to get an election for November 24th, making allowances for all the writs and stuff that has to precede it ?
PS: Rudd is looking tired of politics already: hope he can go the distance and do more than play a straight bat for the pre-election weeks to come. Im thinking JWW will go for a long election campaign period in hope of a bloody miracle.
I heard on News Radio this arvo that the big media buy people had been told to be where they could be reached on Saturday evening. He certainly seemed to think that we should hold onto our hats this weekend.
Why else has Turnbull delayed the pulp-mill announcement this long? He got the Cheif Scientist’s report what, a week ago?
That was in reply to Econocrat at 71
According the ABC website Turnbull will announce his decision on the future of the Tasmanian pulp mill project tomorrow.
Turnbull seems like a bloke who has gone in politics thinking that he can make a difference or at least gain some power to maybe do some good but then he has met the real deal in Howard and Costello and seen what heartless fellows they are, and now he seems loathe to become like them and or support either of them.
Although I think that he also fancies himself as a great leader and a fantatsic PM, always good to have hope but don’t be to arrogant while having it. He does seem to be arrogant and I mean he has lain down with the devil these past 3 years so will always be tarnished somewhat, as will all Howard’s memebrs, ministers and cabinet.
85 William I’m easy. These days I only do redistributions for the ALp and I also work at NSW ALP Branch Office on election night. Perhaps ‘ALP electoral strategist’ is not too egotistical a description.
One other point about Wentworth: The ALP 2pp vote in NSW has averaged 51% in the 10 elections since 1980. Our vote in 2004 (48.1%) was 2.9% below the average and just 0.7% better than 1996 in NSW. So it’s fair to say that the 2004 Coalition vote is close to their high water mark.
Turnbull should win his seat, he would be a better Prime Minister than Howard. Costello is not a leader he did not have the guts to challenge Howard.
Shane, whats the latest date JWH can go to the GG or nominee for a Nov 24 election ?
Yeah Costello is like the hound that thinks he is the owner only to realise that he is just a dog and will never be in charge.
He has no ticker and while he loves to talk it up in Parliament he will always just be a coward bully in a ‘team’ of coward bullies, with never enough gusto to challenge the chief bully.
I think this is one of the best posts and comment threads from the past few days, and people have done a pretty good job of highlighting the complexities of Wentworth.
I wonder if this is an electorate where the new electoral enrolment laws will loom large in the results
I would love to know what a well known ALP ‘electoral strategist’ would do if he was in JWHs shoes right now to ‘wedge’ Rudd but (a) you won’t tell me in a public forum Shane and (b) I hope Howard does a Forde.