Morgan: 53-47 to Labor in Bennelong

Today’s Fairfax broadsheets carry a Morgan survey of 472 voters conducted in Bennelong on Friday and Saturday, which shows Maxine McKew leading John Howard 53-47 on two-party preferred and 45.5 per cent to 42.5 per cent on the primary vote. Under the circumstances, the Prime Minister would be greatly relieved – the result is no worse than most of the other Bennelong polls published this year, not a single one of which has had him in front. Indeed, it marks an almost significant narrowing from the 55-45 recorded by ACNielsen’s last such poll in February.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

416 comments on “Morgan: 53-47 to Labor in Bennelong”

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  1. I don’t know about that ifonly, but if I was Kevin Rudd I would invite the Chinese from Maxines electorate to a meeting and speak to them in Mandarin. Even take Q&A in Mandarin.

  2. I think you’re all forgetting that the redistribution in Benelong is playing a large part in the drift away from Howard. The boundary has moved much further west. There are large parts of the electorate now that are Western Suburbs – even though they have gentrified over the last while. There are many housing commission and ex HC and veterans homes in West Ryde, Denistone etc. And Nicole Campbell made a big dent in the 2pp last time. If I remember correctly JWH had to go to preferences. And that was before the redistribution. There is as mentioned above a large Chinese contingent, also don’t forget the large Korean population. I’m not sure what that means in terms of voting – I doubt they are a homogenous group. Also, house prices are quite high in the area, so there is probably significant mortgage stress – perhaps not to the levels where selling is necessary, but certainly belt tightening. Musings from an ex-(east) Woodie.

  3. Bungs @ #26,
    {Heard Downer on the radio this morning. After hearing him, I really thought that the Libs will run election ads with the Labor Front bench team, and then ‘Union official’ stamped across them, finishing with ‘Do you really want union to run the country?’ They are already planting the seeds for such a campaign with the constant mentioning of union bosses.}

    I think you are right there Bungs, Downer appears to be running with this in all media opportunities he is provided with at present.

    {Mr Downer said Mr Howard had led one Australia’s most successful governments.

    “I think when the time comes, the debate in that election over the substance of what the government’s doing and continuing to do against the prospect of an inexperienced leader leading a team of Labor frontbenchers – almost all of whom are former trade union officials – I think in the end it’s going to be a much harder sell for the Labor Party than they think at the moment,” Mr Downer said.

    “I would advise people to stop poll gazing and start thinking about the great challenge – the substance of the present government against the prospect of the trade union-dominated alternative led by an inexperienced leader.” }
    http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22430791-5005962,00.html

  4. The amazing thing about this Bennelong poll is its consistency for the past seven months. All the polls consistently shown Labor will win the election. The ozpolitics http://www.ozpolitics.info/blog/ charts are amazing.
    Will L1 ‘s head be lopped off by the weekend? L1 doesn’t think so.
    If there is a debate between leaders will L1 and L2 both front up with L3?
    Will L1 make half of the leader’s speech at the campaign launch and L2 the second half?
    In a normal campaign the gap should be closing by now. With six and a half weeks to go the Coalition would need to be at no less than 48% with the ALP at 52% right now for the Coalition to have a reasonable chance of victory.
    It seems the people have largely made up their minds. The polls are tracking sideways for a relatively easy Labor win.
    The Coalition would be expecting that the last amazing Newspoll would have been very much affected by Kevin Rudd’s performance at APEC and that would have caused a temporary upward blip in the ALP vote.
    That effect will be gone now but the likely downward impact of the leadership debacle will dampen the benefit from the loss of the blip.
    Newspoll forecast? 57-43. Final forecast? 53-47 on present figures.
    People do tend to drift back to the party they voted for last time at the last minute.

  7. glen, have you filled out the ‘take the test’ in
    http://www.politicalcompas.org

    As you will see here, The Labour Party is now the 2nd party of the right, with the left of the ALP being still social democratic….and marginalised because of that.
    The Liberal Party is out there, the dominant ones being more deep right – and has a far right (90% power to the employer and 10 per cent to emploee)..on political compass it would be +40 to the right…Labour is a bit right glen, so you are not being honest when you say that is where the Liberals are at- the paradims have moved so far to the right in the past 20 years and whats radical right (neoliberalism) is orthodox now.

    So, take the test and publish your results. You have to be honest….and stop calling the Liberals centre/right…Labour is plus 15 economically and socially to the right…
    what does everyone else on the blog think? Have you taken this values test?

  8. Greetings from Parliament House, Canberra, where I am spending the last week of sittings (we presume) with my erstwhile employer, just for old times’ sake. It might be an entertaining week. I will keep you posted.

  11. No, if you are who I think you are, I used to work occassionally with your husband but more with the man you bought your land off (I understand he hasn’t been well).
    I enjoy your work in the SMH but what does the Hon. Mrs. Anne Cohen make of it?

  12. I see that Centrebet is back out to $3.70 today, a level reached previously only at the height of the leadership tensions. It had been on $3.55 for the last 4-5 days. Are they party to something we’re not yet (the Oz Newspoll?) or are they just reacting to today’s Bennelong poll? Hmmm.

  13. The first paragraph of the report on this poll states “JOHN Howard would lose his seat of Bennelong to the Labor Party’s Maxine McKew with a two-party swing of more than 7 per cent in an election held now, a Morgan poll shows.” Morgan Poll?

  14. A sample of 472 in an electorate of 90 000 will have an MOE of about 4.5% – too big to draw meaningful conclusions. Someone reported last night that Fran Bailey said on Insiders that Lib internal polling had Howard “losing easily” in Bennelong.

    Also last night, someone reported seeing Vic ABC news report that a poll out today would show the govt trailing even further. Can anyone confirm this? Glenn Milne implied on Insiders yesterday that Galaxy would be reporting today – this obviously hasn’t happened, but it could be that the Oz persuaded the News Ltd tabloids to hold off until tomorrow.

  18. #58. Thanks re SMH. The last time I dined with Mrs Anne Cohen was at least 8 years ago and it was before I was into politics! I guess you’ll remain a mystery.

  20. Someone in the Liberal Party needs to take Alexander Downer aside and tell him to STFU.

    His ill-advised and occasional insane rantings are one the main reasons the Coalition is tanking in the polls.

    It’s just not a good look for the nation’s Foreign Minister to:

    a) appear to have so much time on his hands, and
    b) lack of that part of the brain that stops you from behaving like a goose.

    Oh, how I would love him to lose his seat…

  21. I re enterd the Ozpolitick test justnow.. Iwas greens~88 % labor ~82, Dems~81%. Two weeks ago I was ALP 84% and the other two just under 80% It seems that like the polls I’m drifting slightly left. Can it be the influence of this Blog, or do I just like Maxine’s smile?

  22. Maybe the pollys will catch on soon. Labor voters are indicating their vote for labor but also trying to keep Howard in so we can kick him in the goolies. I expect a poll to soon show a TPP of 100% 0% with 100% satisfaction rating for Howard. = 🙂

    This sort of like holding a man down while someone kicks him. Sorry John but it is your medicine prescribed by the doctor, Dr Democracy.

  23. Regarding McKew in Bennelong.

    Let’s not get too ahead of ourselves. Remember Kernot for Dickson?

    I will be happier when we see her performing during the ‘genuine’ campaign and getting the runs on the board.

    She will also do better to follow her own intuition and not listen too much to her minders (including her husband).

    For the quasi Bruce historians remember politics before 1946 is not worth comparing. There were only 75 seats in Parliament and 2.8m voters.

    Let’s keep the party focused on the game at hand. It has nothing to do with Member for Bennelong. It has to do with winning a minimum of 15 seats across the country.

    Also, once we have won let’s hope that the right maintains control of the party.

  28. This poll result comes as no surprise. I suppose a smaller sample is OK when modelling a smaller vote base, ie one electorate.

    Bennelong has been ripe for picking by the ALP for years. Howard has little in common with the voters, his real home is over in leafy Wollstonecraft which has been outside Bennelong for about 15 years.

    A smart local candidate with a smart national leader always stood a great chance here. The recent boundary changes have only helped the ALP in this seat. Nevermind the general mood for change and the voters realising what a dud PM Howard is.

    Howard should have realised this and moved seat a few elections ago.

    2004 is no guide as I have explained before.

    There is great local support for Maxine. She will win.

  30. Is it my understanding that budget submissions start real soon? Like in November or something, giving about 6 months for the whole process. If so delaying an election could impact on this? Shouldn’t the government be doing something about an election to not disrupt the process. More importantly, shouldn’t the ALP be pushing the government so that Australian community can have certainty about the process.

    From the Government’s own website:
    http://www.ato.gov.au/budget/2007-08/faq.htm#budget_process

  31. Just listening to Alexander Downer on ABC Radio and I think he’s losing it. Carrying on like a kid in a school playground. Still nothing on why we should vote for the Liberals, just more of the same old Labor is bad messages. Labor stands for Unions and Rudd is arrogant, etc, etc but not a single point about what a future Liberal government would do or stand for.

  32. # 72, P Dey I gather is fine, holidaying in Italy at the moment. I thought you were Ross Free! He knows about my leanings and has mentioned my SMH stuff to my husband. I confess I voted for Anne C because Richard was handing out how to votes when we fronted up at the booth. Are you the sourdough donor?

  33. The ranting about unions by Downer is real Carl Rove “consolidating the base” stuff. They’re just trying to put a floor under their loss so it isn’t too devastating in the longer run. It’s actually evidence that they’ve given up on winning.

  34. Chiris B I personally think thats a very stupid idea to be quite frank,
    If he went and took questions in Chinese to the chinese ppl how do u think rest of the community would like,
    I know I wouldnt
    and if I saw that I would change my vote to Jonhn Howard
    Australia is an Australian English speaking country and the lagnguage we speak is Australian English, Not CHINESE
    I and im sure the rest of the Australian community would not apreciate it if Kevin Rudd started talking gobeldy gook to certain groups, I would find it offensive

    And So Says Steveo!!!

  36. 77
    paul k Says:
    September 17th, 2007 at 11:55 am …
    Just listening to Alexander Downer on ABC Radio and I think he’s losing it…
    …..

    I disagree paul k: for the first time in many months the Liberals have a message that can work – at least to some degree. It is in two parts. They offer “substance” and by inference, Labor do not. Labor is run by the unions and therefore “Labor can’t be trusted” to run the economy.

    There are the Liberals election themes and you can expect to hear nothing else for the next two months. Will it work? In part, it must….

  39. Last night, someone reported seeing Vic ABC news report that a poll out today would show the govt trailing even further. Can anyone confirm this? Glenn Milne implied on Insiders yesterday that Galaxy would be reporting today – this obviously hasn’t happened, but it could be that the Oz persuaded the News Ltd tabloids to hold off until tomorrow.

  40. Steveo: What absolute rubbish.

    We live in an international multicultural society and people both inside and outside Australia speak different languages.

    Why should it be offensive to ordinary Australians for communications to occur in another language?

    Anyone feigning shock and outrage, I’d consider xenophobic in the extreme.

  41. I agree with blindoptimist #77.

    Along the lines of AlexM #79, i think this message is designed to bring out the ‘base’. However, in the past, and from the poles, it seems that this may be enough to pull the result to allow the Libs to form govt. 16 seats is massive, and i think the Libs see this line as a way they can maintain govt.

    The union stuff is amusing/offensive and clearly wrong, but as with most politics, the perception is more important than the truth.

    And Steveo, i think while most Australian’s don’t care, there are about 1 million of you who voted that way in 1998!

  42. If you look at Morgan’s detailed report online

    http://www.roymorgan.com/news/polls/2007/4212/

    there’s nothing in it that would have given the PM anything to cheer about IMO.

    The main story is that around half of the high level of Green support reported by February has shifted to the major parties, at a rate of 3:1 to Labor as one would expect.

    One would have thought that the people of Bennelong would feel some degree of sentiment for a man who has represented them for longer than many of them have been alive, and who is now fighting for his political survival.

    But that is not evident in the figures: Costello polls nearly as well (or, perhaps I should say, nearly as badly) as Howard.

    To suggest on the basis of this poll that we are seeing a swing back to Howard in Bennelong is clutching at straws methinks.

  43. William, Michelle Grattan, in the article you link to, specifically states that the Bennelong poll in question was carried out by Morgan.

    The following is on Morgan’s site.

    “Maxine McKew Would Win Bennelong – Howard Closes Gap
    Special Poll : Finding No. 4212 : This special telephone Morgan Poll was conducted for The Age with 472 Bennelong electors on September 14/15, 2007 : September 17, 2007

    Prime Minister John Howard would lose his seat in Bennelong to Maxine McKew if the Federal Election were held today. However, the margin has closed since the same Morgan Poll was conducted in February. Today, Maxine McKew has a higher level of primary support than John Howard. Overall, 42.5% of Bennelong electors said they would vote for John Howard (up 1% since February), compared to 45.5% for Maxine McKew (up 3% since February – before Maxine McKew announced she was standing), 6% (down 5%) Greens and 6% (up 1%) Others. ”

    cheers,

    Alan H

  44. blindoptimist:

    You may choose to believe the Liberal Party line and years ago I did too but the majority of Australians have turned off the PMs message. This throwback to class warfare about the Unions is like trying to scare people that dinosaurs will rule the earth again if you vote Labor. The only people I know who are worried about Unions are people who like you would vote for Howard no matter what.

    Steveo:

    [ if Kevin Rudd started talking gobeldy gook to certain groups, I would find it offensive ]

    I guess you always insist on speaking the native language when you travel and never use English in the company of others when overseas. Your ideas like the rest of the Liberal Party’s views under Howard are mid 20th century. Catch up. It’s the 21st century.

  45. Grew up in Bennelong and was there yesterday to do some work for my mother. You can not get in or out of any of the local shopping centers without being handed JWH pamphlets. My mother received three personally addressed letters from JWH last week. He is obviously making maximum use of last years increase to his stationary allowance. Don’t know if this will swing a lot of voters back his way or just piss them off. He is wasting his time with my mother though quote “the only thing I ever asked him to do as the local member was to present your father with that WWII medal he received a few years ago; the *** was happy getting his photo taken presenting them to diggers in the Epping RSL but refused to take five minutes to go around the corner to the nursing home and do the same for your father”. Mum has never forgiven him. She also mentioned that if McKew gets up it would be nice to finally have a local member that actually lives in the electorate; I always new that JWH lived outside the electorate but apparently his predecessor from 1949? to 1974 also lived elsewhere.

    I am a little curious as well as to where all the workers outside the shops come from. Didn’t think the local branch membership was that strong.

  47. I and im sure the rest of the Australian community would not apreciate it if Kevin Rudd started talking gobeldy gook to certain groups, I would find it offensive

    I’d find it offensive if people described languages other than English as “gobbledy gook”, but hey that’s just me.

  48. “If he went and took questions in Chinese to the chinese ppl how do u think rest of the community would like”

    I seriously doubt they would care – why would people worry about candidates speaking to certain segments of the community in their native languages? How does it affect you?

    As for the polls, it seems to me it falls into the Margin of Error, but it’s going to be tight either way. I’ll tip 52/48 in favour of Maxine at the moment.

  49. #80, I am sure some of our Italian and Greek MPs have made speeches in Italian and Greek. I think a speech in Mandarin to the Mandarin speakers of Bennelong is a plus.

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