Idle Speculation: APEC edition

Stuck for a title for a new open thread, I thought I’d revive a beloved old brand name (royalties still owing to Adam Carr). You might like to discuss:

• The Australian statsmeister George Megalogenis‘s rundown on Mal Brough’s semi-rural Queensland seat of Longman. Megalogenis also elaborates upon his earlier identification of single mothers as an important demographic. The top 30 list for this group includes Wakefield (SA, Liberal 0.7%), Cowper (NSW, Nationals 6.5%), Lindsay (NSW, Liberal 2.9%), Dobell (NSW, Liberal 4.8%), Solomon (NT, CLP 2.9%), Page (NSW, Nationals 5.5%), Robertson (NSW, Liberal 6.9%), Kingston (SA, Liberal 0.1%) and Bass (Tas, Liberal 2.7%). Well down the order are Bennelong (number 119) and Wentworth (number 139).

Bowman MP Andrew Laming and Moreton MP Gary Hardgrave getting tetchy about the six months taken by the Australian Federal Police and Commonwealth Director of Public Prosecutions to resolve whether charges will be laid against them over the “printgate” affair (also of interest to Bonner MP Ross Vasta). The Courier-Mail ran an editorial criticising the AFP’s tardiness on this front way back on June 19.

• Still in Queensland, Possum Comitatus’s adventurous analysis of the safe Liberal (or is it?) Gold Coast seat of McPherson.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

396 comments on “Idle Speculation: APEC edition”

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  1. #
    Richard Jones Says:
    September 5th, 2007 at 8:58 pm

    Adam, there’s truly enormous pressure on John Howard to quit. Can he really hang in? We’ll know in a week.

    It’s the classical rock and a hard place for the Libs at the moment. They’re damned if he stays in and they’re supposedly damned if they replace him this close to election. Or are they?

    Would a quick short circuit to “the Howard problem” fix the Libs poll problems? I suspect that this is why the betting markets are still “only” at $1.40-odd at the moment. Perhaps the bookies are keeping the margin safe in case of a quick leader change and a poll turnaround.

    Surely it’s too late for even this to save the coalition now.

  2. Glen: We all await your apology for making false and misleading statements such as:

    [‘Simon what you are forgetting is that the US has not set completely irresponsible emission targets…they’ve grown their economy and cut green house gases through greater investment and r & d in emission technologies…i dont think even Bush is stupid enough to commit to a target of 50% reduction by 2050’]

    Which has now been debunked.

  3. It truly is nonsense to say we need nuclear power in this country if we are to reduce greenhouse emissions.
    Geodynamics Ltd have enough geothermal potential in one area of Cooper Creek to provide all of Australia’s electricity needs for 500 years.
    They are currently drilling with a new rig.
    Also near Roxy Downs, Green Rock Energy have just proved up enough geothermal resource to build a 400 MW power in six years, providing power to over 300,000 homes. They also announced this week that they have taken up new geothermal exploration leases further north.
    Geothermal provides 100% greenhouse gas free energy and we have abundant resources.
    We don’t need nuclear power plants which would take twenty years to commission.

  4. Just deciding between the wife and I at the moment, JC. I think I’ll go for Corona and multiple TVs in the same room on different channels so as not to miss a moment of the fun!

  5. i am thinking of getting a personal buttler for the night so i dont have to leave the tele.

    probably stick to ABC and Antony and Kerrie and tape Sky News

  6. Asanque i have nothing to apologise for mate…i said nothing that was factually incorrect…

    The USA has not set irresponsible emission targets…

    They’ve grown their economy and cut green house gases through greater investment and r & d in emission technologies as well as using nuclear power…

    Bush does not support targets of 50% reductions by 2050…

    “Which has now been debunked.” – nothing has been debunked you say nothing will happen maybe nothing would if we had nuclear power i dont see how you could reduce emissions responsibly without damaging the economy without nuclear energy…

    The problem with Rudd’s plan is there is no plan and we have no details of what his cuts will entail…

    Richard Jones…perhaps you are unaware Australia has 30% of the worlds known reserves of Uranium…because of the ideologically driven idiotic state Governments who refuse more prospecting for Uranium who knows how much more we have…we are exporting Uranium so that other countries can reduce their greenhouse emissions and yet we have a ideologically stupid Opposition who say Nuclear power has no role to play in reducing emissions!!! Nuclear power isnt the be all and end all but to be stupid enough to abandon such a worthy adventure would be ignorant at best…

  7. Re (305)

    JC Says:
    September 5th, 2007 at 9:43 pm
    so what does everyone have planned for election night

    Home glued to Sky News for election returns with a BIG bottle of wine, don’t care what type just as long as it is BIG. This will be my first Federal election and I couldn’t have picked a better script if I had tried 😉 ……

  8. I do not believe Howard is going to quit. The so-called pressure for him to leave is from outside the party room. He has surrounded himself with Yes Men and won’t listen to any advise outside his usual counsel. For good or bad he is there to the bitter or sweet end. For him it’s on the death or glory. The writing is on the wall but he can’t and won’t read it.

  9. So Glen you are disputing CSIRO’s contentions that emission cuts of 50% by 2050 are both inevitable and affordable?

    And what exactly do you base your evidence on?

  10. Nuclear Power is costly, dangerous as their may be leaks or potentially provide a target for terrorists and what of the waste where do you put the waste?
    Nuclear power is only a solution for countries who do not have natural resources to supply energy such as coal, or geothermal resources, or wind and solar. Australia has all of these things.. .wind, solar, gas and geothermal or ” hot rocks” and currently we want to use nuclear energy.. what a waste of money…
    It is like the water debate we waste continue to ensure that people pay for water and governments can get money for its use from desalination plants whilst far better environmental ways are possible… like using stormwater or recycled water or providing people water tanks but our governments want to build dams and pump out more gases by using desalination plants. This same argument is with electricity generation make people pay for it because of the revenue governments can get instead of providing solar panels… it is time our governments’ woke up and realised that climate change is real…

  11. I am saying Asanque that Rudd’s policy has no details so how are we to know whether it would hurt the economy or not…

    It probably wouldnt hurt the economy if Rudd was prepared to have some balls and go for Nuclear power if he won but he’s a fool and wouldnt have the brains to do that so how else is he going to cut the emissions…strangle our mining industry probably how else???

    God Asanque do you even know the details of Rudd’s policy because i dont!

  12. Please don’t feed the trolls.

    How do people think the love in between JWH and Bush is playing out. I haven’t given the commentators much time lately (especially Shanahan LOL) , but I think today’s spectacle was even worse than most have been predicting. Sign off a few agreements in the morning, have a media twosome, have lunch with a few army boys, afternoon on a romantic cruise and dinner at home. In the meantime Sydney is locked down and waiting to look at fireworks through a wire fence on the weekend. It looksterrible to me.

    By the way, I think Australia got the APEC gurnsey for 2007 years ago. JWH may have been planning for a triumphal turn into the election in 2006, but was working with what (at the time) was luck.

  13. [It was actually for the New York City’s Inner Circle Press Dinner in 2000. The annual event is similar to the White House Correspondent’s Dinner, where the City Hall press makes fun of the politicians and the politicians are supposed to make fun of the press or themselves.]

    He has done it more than once! Conservative Republicans won’t support someone who does this:

    [Give him a break at least he has a sense of humour something Rudd lacks…]

    Unfortuantely for you, Rudd isn’t running to be president of the U.S.

  14. So Glen, what you are in fact saying, is that your contention that 50% reduction of emissions by 2050 is not irresponsible and you are incorrect.

    If you don’t know whether it will hurt the economy or not, why would it be irresponsible?

    I don’t need to know Rudd’s policy, CSIRO has already said its inevitable and affordable.

    And that’s just one of many scientific organisations that has said so.

    I recommend you read the Stern Report as well.

    You are wrong on this issue, just like so many others. You are a true Howard Liberal.

  15. Is this the future of the Liberal Party?

    This passage is from Robert Menzies’ Autobiography:

    ” It is a political fact…that defeat, unless it is defeat by a very narrow margin, tends to disunite the defeated. If one defeat follows others, disunity becomes a certainty. “

  16. Sorry William, I generally just post to correct inaccurate slander from certain posters.

    You are correct that we have gone as far as we can on this issue.

    Please leave my previous post as it was made prior to reading your latest post.

  17. Its interesting to hear someone earlier suggest that Howard will resign after APEC.

    I have a hazy recollection, a very foggy memory, that this scenario was being given air time a couple of years ago.

    I can’t think why it would make sense for Howard to consuder stepping down after APEC in today’s climate, but I swear, I absolutley swear, that I heard someone like Piers Ackerman or Bolte talk about this as an idea some time ago.

    Not that Piers or Bolt = credibility, but its a very intersting idea just now

  18. Paul K that brilliant quote from our best Prime Minister has summed up the ALP for the past 11 years…disunity…god think how bad it would get if Labor lost this election…

  19. Glen do you ever criticise anything that the Liberal Party does.. don’t you have any original thoughts?
    Every policy they have i totally unashamedly agree with.. Jump of the cliff yeh i agree with that…

  20. Marky to answer your question you bet i have original thoughts you lefties just dont think i do to make you think no rational person would support the conservative side of politics and i have and will criticise the Libs if they stuff it up…

    What Glen doesnt like about the Liberal Party…

    Howard’s decision to make an archbishop our Governor General (shudders)

    Howard/Hill’s attempts at having Chinese observers at military exercises

    No original safety net and no disadvantage test on Workchoices legislation very bad stupid idiotic not to have one in…oh well

    State Liberal Party’s making unelectable people the leaders…

    State Liberal Party’s in general they are a complete joke the State ALP Governments well a few should not be in power the State Libs have a lot to answer for.

  21. Glen I think just about everyone knows Australia has 30% of the world’s uranium reserves but it still doesn’t make economic, greenhouse or environmental sense for us to use it.

  22. Mr Squiggle Yes it has been talked about – John Howard’s resignation after APEC that is. You can absolutely bet that it is being actively discussed right now. The Newspoll was the last straw. If it had been 55-45 then everyone would have shrugged their shoulders and said “we’ll give it a go, we have a chance” but not at 59-41.
    Ask not for whom the bell tolls, John, it tolls for thee.

  23. I don’t want Howard to step down now! Howard conceding defeat will be one of the greatest moments in politics ever. And, well, if he happened to lose his seat? It can’t get any better than that.

    Or can it? Then Cossie will be facing the music as oppisition leader (don’t ever forget all the insults ALP) for 18 months or so before all the knives come out. Glen we haven’t seen disunity yet. LOL

  24. Kina so have I. I bought late at $1.52. Also Green Rock. First got in at .85c.
    In about three or four years these prices will look very cheap. I’m holding.
    Bit like Oxiana at 28c!
    The shares will be assisted by Kevin Rudd’s election – he promised them fifty million assistance. They have very low capitalisation at present.
    The shares should follow the polls!
    Kevin Rudd is good for business!

  25. Maybe we should have had a Chinese Governor General, Glen, or perhaps Howard should have appointed a former Liberal State or potential State
    Liberal leader as Governor General and put the Governor General on workchoices with a no disadvantage test..

  26. Perhaps some years the polls are volatile and the campaign focuses minds (04). In others, the polls are steady and the betting markets just follow the polls (07).

    Maybe we should have betting on what the next poll results will be. That’s the sort of meta-nonsense the futures and money markets thrive on.

  27. William Bowe,

    I disagree with your deletion of my comment on climate change which I think is shaping up to be a major issue at APEC, or is it really because you don’t agree with what I’m on about! So much for free speech!!!
    Perhaps you’ll just delete this too!!

  28. I don’t understand… Howard will _never_ quit now. Despite Paul Kelly and MSM finally waking up! Howard coulda left 6 months ago – even 3 months ago. Not now though. That’s the least everyone has to worry about. If you have to worry – worry about Iran!

  29. David,

    Anybody who lists as a serious scientific source can’t be taken seriously. William gave ample warning before he deleted your post. The Climate change debate won’t be won or lost on this site. We all have to stick to William’s rules, like it or not.

  30. I’m not worrying about Iran, nor Pakistan, nor India, nor Israel…
    John Rocket it may, just may, not be John Howard’s choice.
    He may want to call the election as a pre-emptive strike. No one will depose him once the election is called.
    There is a sitting week coming up, perhaps the last.
    That’s when something would happen. After that it would be too late.

  31. Howard will not retire before the election. His last chance was pre-Rudd.

    After the oppostion changed riders, he was locked in. He would have looked weak had he jumped after Labor moved; weak had he jumped when the polls nose-dived; and pathetic if he jumps off an apparently sunk ship now, especially with all the polling data made public in the past year or two showing Costello considerably less popular.

    Give the man credit, he’s lost an election before. And seemed set to lose them before (98 and 01) yet ploughed on. If he went now (or any time earlier this year) he wouldn’t be bowing out. He’d be exploding the very persona he’s striven to embody. Not to mention undoing his historical reputation, which rests on him acheiving gallantry in nothing more or less than being a relentless, plodding fighter who made politics and nothing else his life from the time his pimples abated.

  32. Nevertheless the Republican base will not accept Giuliani or McCain. I doubt they can be nominated, but if they are the Republican base won’t vote for them, they’ll just stay home. The battle seems to be between Romney and Thompson now. Romney has a liberal past which is trying to wriggle out of, and is a Mormon, which for the Evangelicals means he’s not a real Christian. My money would be on Fred Thompson, who looks and sounds presidential, is not stupid, is conservative without being a loony, and has only been married twice (about the average for rich guys his age in the US now). He would start a long way behind Clinton, but then so will any Republican after Bush’s disastrous reign. Electoral is predicting that the Repubs will lose 6 to 8 Senate seats next year.

  33. Adam,

    McCain and Thompson won’t get the nomination. Giuliani is a maybe at best. Romney is the only one left but the GOP is going to get slaughtered in any case.

  34. Who in the right mind would wish to face Rudd.. It is over no one will defeat Rudd now… no candidate will beat him and isn’t it strange about the Murdoch press… such a concerted campaign on IR and now very little and look how they are now being kind… Got the IR changes they wanted and presto!

  35. Does it matter who gets the Republican nomination? Bush and Iraq have screwed them for 2008.
    As for the Democrats, I’d go with Obama, John Edwards OR Gore(if he made a late bid).

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