Newspoll: 59-41

I’m hearing it, but not quite yet believing it – Labor’s Newspoll lead has apparently widened to a breathtaking 59-41 (from 55-45 last time). Details to follow as they come to hand.

UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 46-39 to 48-37.

UPDATE 2: Comments thread rumours tell of a Labor primary vote of 51 per cent, against 37 per cent for the Coalition.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

659 comments on “Newspoll: 59-41”

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  1. I disagree with you folks who say this poll will push the election date back. That won’t achieve anything except make Johnny look like a coward. His best hope, in my opinion, is to change the dynamics by calling the election, and lay out his agenda for the next term, including how long he plans to stay in the leadership. That would put the focus back on the government and the PM, and get the media coverage focused on the daily campaigning and fresh policies.

    There will be an awful vacuum after APEC otherwise, which I’m sure Labor will enjoy filling.

    I’m still predicting an Oct 20th or Oct 27th election, unless the Libs change leaders.

  2. I see that poor old Dolly on Lateline was pushng the “things will change once the campaign starts” line for all it was worth.

    Understandable, really. What else could he do?

    For what it’s worth, I reckon that people have already made up their minds about Team Rodent, which is why we are seeing these consistently devastating poll figures.

    I think Howard will go for a late October poll, rather than chance another interest rate rise a week or two out from a November election. He can’t really go in December. The last thing people want at that time of year is a Federal poll. They’re too busy getting loaded at the office Christmas party and trying to score with that chick from accounts.

    They’ll punish anyone who tries to interfere with the merriment.

    If he does do a Micawber, and hang on to December waiting for “something to turn-up”, I reckon the Labor 2pp could well exceed 60%. That would be pretty-well an Extinction Level Event for the Liberal party.

    No. He’ll go in October to try and minimise the damage.

  4. I agree with Kina (#91) about the Rudd road-side interview. I don’t think it was bad at all. I’d read the comments in the previous thread before seeing the interview and was expecting something horrendous. When I saw it, I wondered what all the fuss was about.

  5. oh gawd i’m just watching Downer now- he looks like death warmed up, he cant be getting much sleep he’s got huge bags under his eyes.

  6. So Downer says Rudd is telling people that he is going to win. I thought Rupert told everyone in the Oz editorial last week that Rudd is going to win.

  7. I don’t think this has anything to do with horse flu at all. It MAY reflect Sydney people pissed off at APEC, which in turn reflects loathing of Bush – they don’t mind disruption when it’s for the Olympics or the Mardi Gras.

    But I still think it’s 90% WorkChoices, and maybe interest rates now as well – a toxic brew. That’s what’s flipped the “Howard battlers” back to Labor.

  10. Albert F – you ask “what idiot would step up at that point?”

    How about Malcolm Turnbull? Leadership would certainly help him retain his own seat, at the very least.

    BTW I’m not suggesting Turnbull is an idiot. He certainly isn’t. But he’d be an idiot if he didn’t do something soon to stop the rot, and so would Costello.

  11. I think Possum may well be proven correct in his prediction that McPherson may fall – you’ve got to think that Leichardt and Fairfax are also vulnerable now as well…

  12. What will irk Howard is that the media will be far more interested in Rudd’s meeting with Bush on Thursday.
    If Labor does win the election, how many of us “True Believers” will be sober enough to remember it? Thank god for video, youtube, the internet etc.

  14. I thought it made Rudd sound kinda tough for a change. Nice to know he can throw his voice.

    But seriously, do you reckon Howard will stage dive like an Italian forward when they do the morning radio handshake?

    “oww, my handsseesss!”

  15. #97. Pseph, you can count on Howard losing Bennelong. Even if the TPP gap narrows, Maxine is attracting a huge personal vote.

  16. Downer was trying to flirt with Leigh Sales: what a slimeball!
    BTW, they should dump Tony Jones and give Leigh the job instead.

  17. What has happened to the objectivity on these boards? There are over a hundred posts that essentially boil down to “yay Howard’s going to lose.” I’ve been reading this site for a few months now and have appreciated the analysis and insight of the posters here. Recently, however, this seems to have been replaced by self satisfied gloating and overt political bias.

  19. Possum. Loved your earlier post. Break out the popcorn and hide the knives.

    59-41 is devastating. There is no other reasonable interpretation. It can’t be sold as rogue when it accords with most other current polls (within the MOE) and at worst it points to a moderate trend away from the coalition. At best it suggests a strong trend away.

    Will be interesting to see if there’s a breakout of leadership speculation. I think they’ll stick with JWH even though it’s now clear their best chance to minimise the losses is for him to step down. There’s probably a lot of backbenchers cursing JWH for staying, and also cursing Costello for not challenging last year.

  20. I know Howard doesn’t need to call an election legally until mid-November and then it doesn’t have to be until January, so how will it play if he delays calling an election.

    I am torn, I think he can argue that he has the law on his side etc (this is understood only by psephs and politco-junkies) and then it plays badly with everyone else who knows it is due

    This result looks good for my $10 bet on Julie Bishop becoming the next leader of the liberal party.

  21. [Yeah, I saw Downer on Lateline. I seriously doubt the truth behind his claims about Rudd telling people that he has the election in the bag. It’s just another smear attempt to make Rudd look arrogant and cocky, knowing that Australians detest arrogance. ]

    Downer just made that up to try to get the Newspoll results off the front page. It won’t work.

    [I agree with Kina (#91) about the Rudd road-side interview. I don’t think it was bad at all. I’d read the comments in the previous thread before seeing the interview and was expecting something horrendous. When I saw it, I wondered what all the fuss was about.]

    It looked better than Howard strolling around the Sydney “Green Zone”.

  22. So if Howard admits to having been in a strip club whilst drunk and gets a resultant rise in the polls do we call this the tits bounce…..

    Sorry, couln’t help myself…
    Tom.

  23. Regarding the ‘fantastic’ poll for the Coalition i have this statement….

    Weak…seriously weak you guys i am so seriously pissed off right about now!

    The best this poll can do (if it is legitimate) for Howard is rally the base in anticipation of a pumping…The worst this poll can do is get the media out trumpeting that Howard is a goner and once again come up with the phrase ‘its been another bad day for the Government’

    But just to keep you all happy…General Wenck will come he’s got to or else we’ll be up s&$t creek without a paddle almost as bad as the Canadian Progressive Conservative Party.

    Wow what a country i have to look forward too….if Rudd gets in…

    Fair Work Australia and the Unions back in Town!
    A Government Ministry 70% full of Union leaders
    A Government Ministry that half the Labor supporters cant name!
    A Republic + Changing the Flag
    Surrendering to Terrorism abroad
    Anti-Americanism
    A Bill of Rights
    All Levels of Government of the One Party
    High Interest Rates
    High Unemployment
    High Inflation
    An inexperienced Government as bad as Whitlam’s
    A demoralized Opposition wondering why after all its good work it still got pumped…

    On these polling figures though i’d better put some money on the ALP…that is if they’re still taking bets…

  26. The issue now is that no one in their right mind will want the job. They’ll be focussing on saving their own seats first, then fighting over the scraps.

    Nope: its Howard at the helm as Ship Rodent goes down.

  28. So funny to see Downer talking about Climate Change issues when not that long ago the Govt was denying its validity. Then again WorkChoices was unchangeable until they changed it.

    How long before the ‘bloody Howard’ T-shirts come out?

  29. Antonio Says:
    September 3rd, 2007 at 11:15 pm
    I disagree with you folks who say this poll will push the election date back.

    I sort of agree – but I also think Howard is now deep in the bunker and beyond rational predictions.

    What may be a rational damage control approach is not how he will react.

  30. If ‘others’ are 10%, as for most recent Newspolls, then with prefs split 70:30 then primaries should be 52:38, if 60:40, then, obviously 53:37.

    If others have grown a lot, which may be the case given the pulp mill angst, then probably both primaries will be lower. Perhaps the Greens have gone through the roof.

    cheers,

    Alan H

  32. Cheer up Glen, there’s no way this will be as bad as the Canadian Progressive Conservatives in 1993 (and I know you know it).

    The Liberals, at worst, will be in no worse situation than the ALP after 1996 – soundly defeated, but remember they almost took government in 1998.

    I don’t think this election is over (yet) – I want to see what happens with APEC and the first round of government election advertising – if there’s no bounce after the first week of the campaign, it will then definitely be over

  33. Downer is starting to sound disturbed.

    Is Centrebet doing any odds on which Coalition M.P. will be first caught drink driving after suffering R.D.S. (Relevance Deprivation Syndrome) due to being bundled into opposition?

  36. If this political contest was a horse race then Kevin Rudd has just kicked 3 lengths clear at the top of the straight with John Howard not finding anything under heavy pressure.

    It may not be a case of shut the gate just yet, but on this result and last week’s Galaxy poll you would be tempted to say (in the words of Wayne Wilson), “if you’ve back the favourite, get in the queue!”

  38. Howard Hater at #112 – I have already decided to tape the election result that I can watch it over sober and watch the good moments. (Assuming they are good ones.)

    My favourite election night moment ever was the 2001 WA election when Graham Kierath was the Liberal party commentator on the ABC and he lost his own seat – that was priceless!

    I know Adam warned me about planning my drinkies – but Adam, maybe I can at least think about it now.

  41. I agree, Alan H. There seems to be a lot of preferences helping Labor to 59% 2PP. And I wonder if some of it is related to the pulp mill. That’s been the most prominent issue in the last week or so. And if former Howard adviser Geoff Cousins hates the pulp mill, you’d have to think there are a lot of other Libs who do too. They may switch to voting Green with preferences to Labor, rather than switch straight to Labor.

    Still, I think there’s a hard-core Labor vote there for WorkChoices and interest rates.

  44. Please spare a thought for all the Business Lobbies who have spent millions of their big fat corporate dollars on pedestrian corporate mining IR ads and all this to have the polls nosedive for them to %41.

    You got to ask which side are they helping and which side are they on?

  45. Shrike, that’s my view, it’s been my view all year and I ain’t budging from it. If Mumble said that, Mumble is wrong. You can’t explain the behaviour of a seat like Lindsay any other way. There is of course a doctor’s wives swing on in their safe seats as well – the Libs are, if I may put it this way, being screwed from both ends.

  47. Ok now thats out of my system

    Leadership speculation if the AC that comes out is 60/40 more than likely given this poll will they change leaders…they should do something so radical as to make Julie Bishop Prime Minister our first female Prime Minister would be so out there it really couldnt hurt and if these figures were uniform on election night Curtin would be a marginal seat lol who knows but…it’s either a rogue poll but Labor still rock solid at 55-45 or Labor’s support is going through the stratosphere….

    Gee Howard needs some big points on APEC because if by the end of September he’s still more than 10 points down im half way to conceding the election….

    Personally i wouldnt be surprised if Rudd is telling people he’s going to win in a Ruddslide i mean if you were ahead by 18 points in the polls a terrorist nuclear strike on Canberra is just about the only thing to bring the polls back in the Governments favour so of course he’d be saying this to influential people…it shores up his support and would explain why the Australian so uncharacteristically attacked Howard last week…

  48. [Bennelong Resident, thanks for that clip of Hawke on Iraq. Does anyone remember him being that clear when he supported the first venture in ‘91?]

    I think it was different, because Iraq invaded Kuwait, and the security council voted for the U.N. to intervene. There was no security council vote for the second Gulf War, becuase the U.S. new it was going to fail.

  50. I’ve worked out how The Australian will spin the result: “Mr Rudd’s backdown on IR brings those reluctant to support unions to his side”.

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