I’m hearing it, but not quite yet believing it – Labor’s Newspoll lead has apparently widened to a breathtaking 59-41 (from 55-45 last time). Details to follow as they come to hand.
UPDATE: Kevin Rudd’s lead as preferred prime minister has increased from 46-39 to 48-37.
UPDATE 2: Comments thread rumours tell of a Labor primary vote of 51 per cent, against 37 per cent for the Coalition.
William, since you’re over there in Perth, can you find out who the No 3 Liberal Senate candidate is? Ring up NCB and ask would be the simplest thing to do – no doubt you know him 🙂 . Obviously they’re never going to put it at their crappy website. (Stray thought: do we really want to trust our internet future to a party whose own websites are so abysmal?)
David says to William Bowe (550)
Howard, Rudd, Turnbull, Garret, Bush, etc are all on the Global Warming bandwagon. Of course it’s an issue!
Re Eden Monaro. I spoke to an elderly couple today who I have been friends with for many years. They live in Eden Monaro, and I would have thought that if the conservative candidate only received 5% of the vote they would have still been among that 5%. Absolutely died in the wool!
Apparently they have met the ALP candidate (Col. Mike Kelly, Phd.) and have been converted. His military bearing, no nonsense speaking and generally strong conservative views have won them over.
Take Eden Monaro off the doubtfull list, it is as good as won. Kelly will be a minister in three years or so!
There goes the bellweather!
Mike Cusack…you and the rest of the left wing bloggers who continually say they’ve met or know people who were Liberal voters but now are voting for the ALP is a joke and since nobody can substantiate your ‘stories’ you are only using them for political point scoring it is a pathetic attempt to show how Rudd is ‘popular’…
I could just as easily say i’ve met some Labor voters who say Rudd is so inexperienced that they are going to vote for Howard i mean Mike seriously i think you can add more to the political debate than ‘made up’ stories of people converting to the ALP…
Kelly should never be the member for Eden Monaro…for God’s Sake Mike he couldnt even pronounce the name of the electorate!!!!
Gary Nairn is a good local MP and to right him off would be fool hardy…
[ nobody can substantiate your ’stories’ ]
Glen,
Prey tell. How does one prove how he voted? How we know you actually voted for Howard?
You may get a rude surprise on election night.
The contention that the inexperience/ineptness of the backbench of a party would keep them from winning an election is fatuous. Nearly 60% of people have stated in this recent poll that they would vote for the ALP if an election was held last weekend. The great majority of the people polled would not have had any idea of who made up the potential ALP ministry, but still overwhelmingly gave them their tick.
Gough Whitlam won Govt with a shadow cabinet that was notably and predictably inept, and had been out of Govt for 23 years. That fact should kill this line of argument stone dead.
I heard Mike Kelly speak at a fundraiser recently and Mike Cusack is quite right, Kelly is a very smart guy and a very straight talker. His description of how badly Bush and Rumsfeld cocked up Iraq by ignoring what the professionals on the ground (such as him) told them, and how Howard and a succession of dud Liberal defence ministers just accepted whatever pap the US gave them would make your hair stand on end. With Kelly, Tinley and Cocks in the House Labor will expose the Liberals’ bogus national security credentials so thoroughly they will not recover for a decade.
If the experience factor is no biggy for Labor then Mike why dont you name 6 ALP front benchers who’ve been in the same portfolio for more than 5 years and been in Parliament for more than 10 years…without using Crean or McMullan???
There is nothing special about a freedom hating…terrorist sympathising…anti-american Labor Party candidate for an election Adam…Kelly and Tinley have simply exploited their positions in the military to embarrass the Government just as Wilkie did in the civil service…
Glen those last two posts are totally profoundly moronic even by your standards of stupidity. Well done.
David. The Oregon Petition has been comprehensively disembowelled. Nobody takes it seriously, or ever did. And you know it.
Glen 560. Kelly is ten times the man you will ever be. And he will win.
Oh Dear, there has been a security breach already at APEC with the theft of a Bulletproof vest and a Police Portable digitally encrypted radio.
http://www.news.com.au/dailytelegraph/story/0,22049,22345595-5006009,00.html
See i knew you couldnt name the 6…just admit that the Labor Party have an inexperienced front bench its ok to tell the truth Adam…time to face facts…the ALP front bench are not ready to govern…but the people of Australia seem intent on giving them that power…the ‘it’s time factor’ is hurting Howard…
I think I have had enough of gutless Glen. Making accusations against people as ‘terrorist sympathisers’ on a blogspace is one thing, saying it face to face to a man is another. You wouldn’t dare Glen.
You hide behind anonmyity and spew out your hatred and bile day in day out and think yourself a man doing that- you are pathetic, as is Williams willingness to put up with your relentless crap on this blogspace.
It has lost its value for me and many others- I will take my politics and intelligence elsewhere- obviously trolling is acceptable practice here. Ciao.
Glen. I will not get into an argument with you, on this or any other point.
You are correct of course that I cannot prove that what I have posted is correct. I see no point in posting lies. False hope for partisan supporters is of no use to anyone, and may even be counterproductive. I seldom make comment on this or any other blog, and did not do so lightly on this occasion. I thought in doing so I was adding something to the thread.
I am not a “left winger”. I am purely an “anyone but Howard ” voter. I despise what he has done to what was an admirable party.
Whether Nairn wins or loses (and as I concluded my post, I believe he will lose), is of no great concern to me. He will not be much missed if he does lose. He is apparently neither particularly liked nor disliked, neither admired nor not. He is apparently just a bit of a non-event, precisely as he struck me on the one occasion I met him. A bit aloof, a bit forced friendly, a bit distracted seeming. Most people feel a bit sorry for him for the sad loss of his wife last year. A term after his eventual defeat he will be forgotten by all except the trivia kings such as Adam.
I object to your accusation of dishonesty. I have written what I have heard. If you don’t like what I have written, refute it. Don’t call me a liar.
My Grandad was a very experienced driver. We hauled him off the road when he started turning right with the left blinker on.
Incidentally, Glen: name 5 Howard Ministers in the same portfolio for 5 years, without naming Howard or Downer.
I dare you, Glen, to call Mike Kelly a “a freedom hating…terrorist sympathising…anti-american Labor Party candidate” to his face. He would tear you to bits, you disgusting gutless worm. He has killed real terrorists face to face – you’d piss your pants before you got out of the plane.
Actually Just Me i think i already am 10 times the man Colonel Mike Kelly is…i believe this to be true because unlike Colonel Kelly i think our soldiers overseas do more than just ‘flag waving’ i think i have a higher degree of moral decency than Colonel Kelly who deliberately denigrates the service of our brave men and women who fight for our country all for political gain by slandering their commitment to defending freedom and democracy…
Can it Glen, you’re making a fool of yourself. Ollie, I’m as devastated now as I was all the other times you said you were never coming back.
The “we’re hopelessly corrupt, incompetent and have no policies” is what is hurting Howard.
Experience. Well, that argument means that under the circumstances we should return to feudal absolutism. That would ensure no government would be inexperienced, they would have been born into their hegemony and trained for years to serve the interests of the people, right?
Glen, are you supposing we never vote for an opposition party on the basis of perceived inexperience? Or are you just advocating a return to autocracy: fascist, communist, feudal or otherwise?
Gosh.
Sadly Ollie, I had to delete your second farewell comment for the evening. It was ten times dumber and uglier than anything Glen has ever said.
I will take my interest elsewhere, maybe to Possums place. Cheers people, and lets hope for a Ruddslide so pathetic people like Glen stfu for awhile at least.
Left E…to answer your question yes i can name 6…
Costello
Minchin
Vaile
Macfarlane
Truss
Ellison
Anyone who supports Howard is morally bankrupt. Howard is a fear mongering xenophobic fundamentalist neoconservative who even Pauline Hanson has claimed stole her policies.
His scare tactics, wedge politics and blatant bribes may have led to attracting the gullible vote for the last few elections, but ultimately it looks like leading to the largest ever defeat by a government in such fine economic times.
See Glen, anyone can use hyperbole to denigrate.
Whats all this talk about Kelly? Wasn’t the Howard govt willing to sacrifice the lives of Australian soldiers and Iraqi civilians all for the sake of a little reflected glory off Bush? They were willing to let our soldiers die to make themselves look tough and, for two leaders to masturbate two egos.
Glen: “Gary Nairn is a good local MP and to right him off would be fool hardy…”
Write you are, Glen. You tell ’em all about it, mate.
Ollie, I’m getting sick of deleting all your “last comments ever”.
Glen: When Howard took power in 1996 only two members of the incoming Coalition Government had any previous ministerial experience, Howard and John Moore.
So obviously you would have voted for Keating at the time.
Go fuck yourself William, loser. Delete that too.. are you Glen ?
[There is nothing special about a freedom hating…terrorist sympathising…]
Guys,
How can you take anything Glen says seriously when he spouts this sort of rubbish. Can’t you see Glen is only here to stir things up. Ignore him. His rants aren’t worth getting upset over.
TofK No i have never advocated one party staying in forever, it is a bad thing for democracy…had Kim Beazley still been the leader i could not attack him for lack of experience…i dare say Mr Beazley would have done a better job than Rudd if the ALP were to win this year…but you cannot run away from the fact Rudd has been a leader for less than 10 months and he’ll have a lot of responsibilities as Prime Minister…the question is…is he and his front bench up for it?
William i appologise for my comments on Colonel Kelly…they were completely biased and out of line despite my differences in policy with him and the ALP there are more civilised ways of making a point.
I wonder how long till AC comes out if it goes in Labor’s direction i am going to put 100 bucks on them to win…i might as well get something out of a Ruddslide if that happens…
Ollie #582: I think I might leave that one in. Possum will be so pleased that he has you to himself now.
Thanks Glen.
Thats one gutless, no iceberg non-starter; one “workchoices is just the beginning, sorry HR Nicholls” cat-debagger; two clowns up to their eyeballs in the AWB Saddam-funding scandal; one currently under the pump over Equine flu; and one loser no-one’s ever heard of.
Kind of sums up the problems in your argument. The ‘experience’ has left the voting public cold.
Attacks on Mike Kelly’s integrity are disingenuous, cast the first stone and all that.
What Mr Kelly is lamenting is the Bush White Houses inability to manage post war operations, which is THE major cause of losing the peace. What he is proposing is, not to “cut and run” (Latham’s Christmas present, Howard’s fear campaign gift), but to replace a failing and locally resented US occupation with a multilateral UN commitment, something which a Rudd Labor government would most likely support, considering its preference for multilateral diplomacy and a stronger role for the UN.
Generic Oracle,
I am afraid that the style you are relating to is not in fact the style to which I was referring.
One of the important job of a politician is to communicate and it is the style of the communication that I was referring to. I find it amazing that you would think that I was referring to the physical attributes of any politician i.e. if they are fat thin dark or blond etc.
If you had done any formal debating you would have come in contact with the 3 areas under which the adjudicator would judge you and your argument and one of those is manner or in other words style. That is how one interacts with the audience – see http://www.actdu.org.au/archives/actein_site/basicskills_.html#method – for more details .
Now I know that it is some 40 add years since I did debating at school but I don’t think that it has changed all that much.
I am unsure how M/s Gillard goes as far as political skills are concerned but surviving in the ALP and being from the left faction she cannot be bereft of such talent. Hopefully, her contribution in that area will be limited. I find that political skill is what Howard has and what Downer thinks he has but hasn’t and I am sure there are enough hard heads in the ALP with political skill to burn. I find those with political skill are not the sort of people I want to be associated with for they are usually more interested in themselves and the deception/manipulation of others and have little interest in anything else. This is not saying that a political party does not need them but Howard is a good example of what one gets when one who excels in political skill reaches the top.
Your criticism of M/s Gillard’s style as being too confrontational is one that a lot of women, that are making inroads in to the male clubs, are tagged with. She is playing with the big boys and if she is to survive she has to stand up for herself I must admit that I much prefer M/s Gillard’s style that that of the senior women on the other side of the house M/s Bishop.
Can I assume that you assessment of the woman with a tremendous success in politics is/was one of the most aggressive people I have ever encountered (Mrs Thatcher). I have only seen her on TV and she scared the pants of me. However, I assume that you discount her tenure as Brittain’s PM because of her aggressiveness.
I am unable to judge the interview held in June as I either never saw it or cant remember seeing it. I contend that you assessment of the Gillard/Jones interview that I have seen to be missed judged and poorly understood by you.
As an example of how well she performs I would recommend her debate with Mr Hockey tonight on the 7.30 Report where I believed she outperformed him at every turn. Not a bad effort for such a poor performer (in your eyes) up against a Liberal heavyweight (no pun intended) and in some peoples eyes a possible leader of the Liberals down the track
PS.
With tea and all out of the way I have had a chance to think a bit more about how aggressive M/s Gillard is and if you compared her public persona against the aggressiveness of the women I know I would have to say that she was a little reserved compared to them – but maybe I just like women that are prepared to stand on the hind legs and howl (as my departed father use to say). Now maybe she is more aggressive in private but that is something that you and I will never be in a position to judge
I think that this may be a topic that you and I will never agree on.
Left E it just goes to show that 11 years is a long time in Government and no Government is perfect or comes away after 11 years being squeaky clean if you think thats possible i sure dont…
If its any consolation i dont like the HR Nicholls society or Minchins support of them…but i dont think its fair to put so much blame on Vaile for the AWB scandal and i think Chris Ellison would take offence to being called a loser just because he’s in the Senate doesnt make him a loser…but it does make him somebody not making people have heard of.
William I will honor my commitment to contribute some $$ to your site but I can not tolerate a site that allows people like Glen to make bs accusations about good people being terrorist sympathisers and you dont delete that or moderate that. Congratulations, you HAD a very good blog space, once.
Ciao.
Rudd’s gone! With Sydney in lock-down, any Australian living more than 50 km from Sydney will be in raptures with the rodent’s decision to hold APEC in Sydney, rewarding him, the HIH specialist and Lord Downer with a massive swing.
Hawke was leader for how long? His government initiated much needed social and economic reforms, the benefits of which we continue to reap daily. Leaders are not born into their position, which sounds like what you are intimating. Rudd has been shadow foreign minister for 6 years, which (in addition to his extensive diplomatic career, and experience as Goss’s COS) will serve Australia very well in an era of international insecurity.
Nothing like some nice Buxtehude and a cup of tea and a butternut snap to calm the nerves after a bout of vigorous name-calling. I recommend it to all…
TofK Hawke was a trade union leader of the ACTU for decades before being Prime Minister i count that as leadership experience…Rudd has none except in 2006-2007…Rudd just doesnt have enough leadership experience and has nobody to take over from him if god forbid he won and got hit by a bus…Gillard will our Prime Minister when he’s overseas i dont doubt her intelligence one little bit she’s a sharp politician but she’s not a leader…
Dont worry William, unity still loves ya’, even if you conduct the occasional knifing.
I’d say being a Premier’s chief of staff, and key policy advisor requires alot of leadership, in substance rather than image, both of which Mr Rudd has mastered effortlessly. Personally, I think Rudd’s leadership since taking the helm in December has been better than any Labor leader since Hawke.
gotta zzzzz, read your rebuttal maybe later, hey, maybe not at all.
But wait Glen, what happens if the entire ALP front bench gets hit by a bus?
What if Howard actually grew a conscience and some accountability.
Why raise unlikely scenarios?
I’m just saying who else but Rudd could lead the ALP if he wasnt there its a valid question asanque i think you should try to answer it….
If Howard went the Liberals have
Costello
Turnbull
Nelson
Julie Bishop
I’m sure the Labor Party must have some potential leaders i none come to mind though you might be able to fill in the blanks?
Newsflash:
In the latest polls, Liberal supporters have gained hope with the latest polls showing John Howard gaining 2% over Gillard as the preferred PM should Rudd get hit by a bus.
John Howard’s preferred PM level is now 27%. Liberal supporters are now pushing for more balanced media reporting that takes into account Gillard being hit by a bus.