By hook or by Cook

My ongoing effort to spice up the election guide with preselection argybargy has recently led me into the quagmire of Cook, where the Liberals finally settled on a candidate last Thursday after months of factional brawling. The drama began in April when Bruce Baird, who turns 66 in February, announced he would not seek another term. A former minister in the Greiner-Fahey state government, Baird had himself come to Cook in eventful circumstances. He was installed as a compromise candidate in 1998 after one-term member Stephen Mutch was challenged by Mark Speakman, a local barrister who had been best man at Mutch’s wedding eight years earlier. Baird’s nomination was a victory for his moderate faction over a member described by Irfan Yusuf as a “small ‘c’ conservative”. The demise of Mutch did not please the Prime Minister, who pointedly failed to promote Baird at any point in his nine years in Canberra. It also did not help that Baird was close to Peter Costello, and was spoken of as his potential deputy when fanciful leadership speculation emerged in early 2001.

The Sydney Morning Herald reported that Baird’s retirement was influenced by the prospect of a preselection challenge from the Right, which was exerting growing control over the Cronulla and Miranda branches. There had already been talk Baird would be succeeded by Scott Morrison (right), former state party director and managing director of Tourism Australia. Morrison left the latter position last year after a falling out with Tourism Minister Fran Bailey; a travel industry news site talks of rumours the Prime Minister promised Morrison support in Cook as “payback” for agreeing to go quietly. According to Steve Lewis in The Australian, Morrison boasted “glowing references from a who’s who of Liberal luminaries, including Defence Minister Brendan Nelson, Environment Minister Malcolm Turnbull, former Liberal president Shane Stone, Howard’s long-time chief of staff Arthur Sinodinos, and Nick Minchin, the Finance Minister and another close ally of Howard”. However, it quickly became clear that such support would not avail him without the backing of the Right. Unfortunately for Morrison, much of the Right’s local strength was achieved by courting energetic local numbers man Michael Towke, who was himself intent on running. Imre Salusinsky of The Australian reported that Morrison was further starved of support when the Left resolved to resist Towke by digging in behind its own candidate, Optus executive Paul Fletcher.

Towke went on to defeat Fletcher in the final round by 82 votes to 70, with Morrison finishing well back in a field that included PBL executive David Coleman (who had the backing of Left-aligned state party president Geoff Selig), economic consultant Peter Tynan, 2004 Barton candidate Bruce Morrow and the aforementioned Mark Speakman. Towke’s success over what Imre Salusinszky of The Australian described as “a Rolls-Royce field of candidates” enraged opponents of the Right’s growing ascendancy, and doubts soon emerged as to whether the party’s state executive would ratify his nomination. Allegations of wide-ranging branch-stacking activities soon filled the media, as did reports of extravagant claims in his CV concerning his barely-existent security business. Towke had also said he had quit the ALP at the age of 18, but “other documents” emerged to suggest he was a member at 23. There was also talk of a whispering campaign surrounding Towke’s Lebanese heritage (his surname is a recently adopted Anglicisation of Taouk), and how this would play in the white-bread electorate that played host to the 2005 Cronulla riots. With the Prime Minister’s voice joining the anti-Towke chorus, the 22-member state executive voted to remove him by 11 votes to nine, with two abstentions.

This did not resolve the issue of Right control of local branches, which would still have been the decisive factor in any straight preselection re-match. It was reported that the seat was set to go to state upper house MP Marie Ficarra, a close ally of Right powerbroker and fellow MLC David Clarke. Ficarra’s Legislative Council vacancy would in turn be filled by Scot MacDonald, the party’s rural vice-president. MacDonald’s nomination for Senate preselection earlier in the year was rejected by the party’s nomination review committee, a body designed to vet candidates on grounds of character or ethics. This decision was reportedly prompted by Senator Bill Heffernan’s fierce lobbying at the direction of the Prime Minister, who wished to protect Left faction incumbent Marise Payne. However, Towke instead agreed to a deal in which a new preselection process would involve only those who had nominated the first time around, in return for the dropping of disciplinary action against him (which perversely enabled him to sit on the preselection panel).

The new preselection saw Morrison defeat Peter Tynan by 26 votes to 14, from a panel consisting of 26 representatives of local branches and 17 of the state executive. Imre Salusinszky reported that Morrison owed his win to Right delegates from the executive who persuaded local branch delegates to fall behind him. Fletcher and Speakman withdrew at the last minute, while Morrow ran but failed to secure any votes.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

180 comments on “By hook or by Cook”

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  2. Glen @ 34 rabbits on…. […Howard still has it his choice when to call the election…and with the polls the way they are he needs this extra ace up his sleave also he can try to as he did in 2004 frame the election around…]

    “Ace up his sleeve”? I don’t think so, Glen.
    It’s what the electorate will be holding on the possible dates, and the manner in which the electorate will be wielding what they are holding, that should be of concern to you, dear boy(s).

    Oct. 20: knuckle dusters

    Oct. 27: koshes

    Nov. 3: hockey sticks

    Nov.10: baseball bats

    Nov. 17: cricket bats

    Nov 24: nulla nullas

    Dec1: shillelaghs

    Dec 8 chainsaws

    Should he stall beyond that date, I’m afraid El Rodente might find himself hanging by the ankles on the outskirts of Canberra on the road to Yass. Sometimes electorates refuse to be trifled with, Glen.

  3. What happened with that news story about a couple of fed Qld Lib politicians under police investigation (electoral allowance fraud)? When is this going to pop?

  4. http://www.smh.com.au/news/National/DPP-seeks-legal-advice-over-Laming/2007/08/23/1187462394624.html

    As yet TW no charges have been laid by the DPP though they are checking out Laming a bit further…

    EC despite what you may think Howard is not universally hated like Keating…he only beat Hewson because Hewson was incompetent and while he wont be met with roses come election day it wont be baseball bats either…

    Word to the wise EC i wouldn’t underestimate the power of incumbency…do so at your peril.

  6. Glen, people don’t have to hate Howard to vote him out; they just have to be tired of him, which I believe and the polls strongly suggest, enough people already are.

  7. “If only” …. going back to the post election pendulum of 2004 to which I referred earlier (from AEC website), if the swing of 5% is uniform, the state by state totals going over to Labor are as follows: 3 in SA (margins currently 0.1, 0.7, 0.9; 3 in QLD (margins currently 0.5, 4.2, 4.8 {Nationals seat}); 4 in NSW (margins currently 0.6, 2.1, 4.2 {Nationals seat}, 4.3 {Howard’s seat}; 2 in TAS (margins currently 1.1, 2.6); 2 in WA (currently 1.8, 2.0); 1 in NT (2.8 to the CLP); 2 in VIC (currently 4.8, 5.0). 3+3+4+2+2+1+2= 17.

    htth :):) ….. Julie

  8. Yeah Glen, “universal hatred” can bring a PM undone. My problem is that I keep forgetting just what one helluva guy Mr. Howard really is. You’ve turned me around, mate, I’m gonna vote for him now. Thanks.

  9. Debates: I think Gillard would destroy Hockey in a stand-up debate. He’s a pompous blowhard, and he has a very weak case. There are only so many times you can say “union thugs” in one sentence. Swan v Costello, Costello would probably win because he’s a very witty debater who can cover his weak points with gag lines. Also he has an easy case with a strong economy, even though none of it is his doing.

  10. Perhaps all of that assumes that Mr. Costello is liked in the general community. He’s not – in fact – he is really disliked, perhaps unfairly. Viewers would interpret his ‘wit and gags’ as arrogance and remind them exactly why they don’t like them.

    Swan on the other hand, would be far more sober – even a plodder. But he would sound sensible and considered. That’s all he needs to do to win.

    So what other matchups? – I’m telling you, Alien would smash the Predator?

  11. Chainsaw is fine by me. Mine has just been serviced.

    Lowry Institute press release, today

    “In 2007, Pres G. W. Bush caused 69% to have an unfavourable opinion of the US, with US foreign policy causing 63% to hold an unfavourable opinion …”

    Wild rubbish from me perhaps, but is it possible that Howard phoned his mate re APEC visit. Seems rumours are about that George W. will squib APEC (Greg Sheridan, today’s OZ)

  12. I think all current ministers would lose any debates, because they would all talk about the past. In other words they would tell us how clever they have been.

    This is not what people are interested in, they want to know about the future and at the moment only labor are talking about it.

    We know Howard is the greatest ever, Costello is the bestest ever, Abbott is the great saviour of medicare.

    But what are the Liberal policies for the future? Rudd is selling the vision thing. The Govt. is bogged down with encumbancy.

  13. But Glen, Keating *wasn’t* universally hated. Sure, some people disliked him, but like Howard today, that’s not all.

    I reckon the polls reflect a feeling in society that Howard promised prosperity for all, but people are now sick of waiting – and pissed off with him for making that promise.

    Howard might not be universally hated, but the number of people that hate him has gone up a lot. Very, very similar to Keating in ’96.

  16. There’s always been a part of me that the whole Keating and baseball bats was winner’s history. I think a lot of people who didn’t like him still had a bit of respect even fondness for the fellow. But by god, Keating’s old grey mare ain’t what it use to be. Sad.

  18. Glen (34) says he can’t see the ALP making any gains in WA. I live in Stirling, where Michael Keenan looks seriously threatened by a quality candidate in Peter Tinley, by large numbers of working mums annoyed at losing their weekends through Workchoices and by the LHMU which is hammering the electorate hard with phone canvassing.

  19. In a debate Rudd would probabably lose because he would face twice as many questions, the interviewer and himself
    “Is my recollection of the eviction of my family different to the evidence…yes”
    “Does that make me a bad person…no”
    etc

    Howard used to write his own speeches something uncommon in these days. He certainly can keep on topic at question time. Rudd hasn’t had to face a question time without prepared questions so would be a bit unknown but his voice sounds better than Howard and he has faced the press often enough.

  20. Randwick racecourse in Sydney will be shut down after an outbreak of horse flu. This is big news, and will not help the govt claw back.

  21. Rudd would kill Howard in a debate.

    Simply because any issues of contention that Rudd may have to face, pale in comparison to the many misdeeds of the Howard government.

    Pick one at random from Iraq, AWB, Haneef, Children Overboard, Interest rates.

    Compare that to Rudd, and you have the Sunrise incident, Wife’s wages non-debacle, Scores, and family history.

    Absolute non-events compared to the many matters stuffed up royally by the monarchist Howard government.

  23. I’m worried about you, Glen. You’ve been silent for well over an hour now. Hope you’re OK. You’re not like the other boys, Glen. I know you mean well.

    Mate, politics is all about perceptions, right? How would you interpret this from CBet ? Maybe it’s just a fluctuation or something.

    Labor: $1.50 Coalition:$2.60.

  25. I understand that Rudd and Garrett were in Hasluck today, promising that the future Labor Government will fund the Solar Cities project. Odd given this project was in Hasluck that the Government decided not to have a solar city project in WA. But he is all about nuclear reactors, not alternative sources and demand management.

  30. News Ltd turning against Howard, the Liberals odds blowing out in the betting market – change must be in the wind.
    One point: you can’t assume there’ll be a uniform swing across all states, there will no doubt be flucuations across different seats.

  32. Cook’s margin IS one that is artificially high but, whilst this should be cut at this election, it is most unlikely to change hands. This seat was marginal (@3.5%) after the 93 election but continued demographic changes, Federal ALP being a shambles 96 – recently and Baird being a good constituency MP have seen this change.

    Hughes is however one of my smokies to change hands. Again an inflated margin but this seat is far from homogenous. ALP made a major miscalculation running David Hill her in 98.

  33. Cook’s margin IS one that is artificially high but, whilst this should be cut at this election, it is most unlikely to change hands. This seat was marginal (@3.5%) after the 93 election but continued demographic changes, Federal ALP being a shambles 96 – recently and Baird being a good constituency MP have seen this change.

    Hughes is however one of my smokies to change hands. Again an inflated margin but this seat is far from homogenous. ALP made a major miscalculation running David Hill here in 98 and this probably served to give Dana Vale a profile (ala

  34. I’m not convinced Rudd would beat Howard in a debate.

    The Liberals will hold Cook, Hughes on the other hand could be interesting, from my understanding of NSW politics this is swing terriory therefore this seat could fall before Wentworth and could be the different between a strong ALP win or a bloodbath.

    Cook: Liberal 59 – ALP 41

    Hughes: Liberal 50 – ALP 50

  35. continuation (pressed submit in error)

    State results for this seat do give a guage to the real character of this seat (being primarily the seats of Heathcote & Menai). The Heathcote sector (Sutherland down the rail-line) I will suspect will swing ALP ans moreso the western sector (Wattle Grove, Holsworthy up to Moorebank, Chipping Norton and part of Liverpool). Lib’s strength is the southern shore of the Georges River (Illawong, Alfords Point) and Bangor, Menai.

    The fact that an “on the nose” state ALP govt could hold Menai suggests that this area is NOT safe Lib territory or but rather this is a swing seat.

  36. My brain hurts after reading that description of the Byzantine shenanigans in the Liberal labyrinth (how’s that for mixed cultural metaphors?). Thanks William.

  37. The one thing that Rudd really excelled at at school – and that lifted him from a difficult childhood into an ambitious, educated future, was debating.

    No doubt, especially in this climate, he’d best Howard in a debate in formal terms. All that would keep it competitive is that as decided underdog at present, people would expect Howard to do worse, and that Rudd, if nervous, can sound priggish and prolix.

    Rudd is a newbie in this sense: Howard has done nothing but politick for close to 40 years and so is very adept at it.

  39. William,

    What is your take on Forrest now that Noel Brunning is no longer running ? I am of course referring to the article by Robert Taylor in the dead tree edition of The West .

  40. Sideline eye, 50. Mutch was one of politics’ victims. Lawson actually wrote a poem in support of him, maybe Les Murray could help Howard.
    One curious fact about Cook is how the state seats have gone in quite divergent directions since Labor won Miranda. It seems a personal triumph for the Labor MP.

  42. Howard is an adept speaker when wriggle-room is needed. However when talking direct to the public he becomes obscure and disengenous liking to call black grey and white grey or even white black. It used to work but we are a little more discerning now. Howard speak is less effective now and in fact might remind people why they are sick of him and his ways.

    More interestingly is today’s report that reveals that since 1996 poverty has grown from 7.6% to 9.9% in a booming economy. If that is not a damning and major issue for Labor to run with I dont know what would be.

  44. Kina…if that report is true which i highly doubt it since employment levels and wages have increased under Howard if its true that 1 in 10 are in poverty how is the number going to get any better with Labor’s irresponsible economic management…

    Guess who the report was commissioned by people who want more welfare payments so of course their study is going to find what conclusions they want…

    Lennon on the 7:30 report had a shocker…if the Libs had a half decent Opposition down there they just might win back government…but they are so far behind Lennon will probably stay in what a joke.

    In regards to ABC left wing bias they reported 39% of Australians had an unfavourable opinion of the USA because of George W Bush but forgot to tell the audience that still 60% have a good view of America…

  45. ” … and is so very adept at it.”

    Doubtful. Howard has been everywhere for 11 years. He’ll attend the opening of a door. It’s a switch off. It won’t work.

  47. I’m not twisting them Derek i acknowledge those who hold a negative view of the US has increased…but ABC News Victoria only said 39% of Australians held a negative view of the US mainly because of GWB….but unlike on its website the news failed to mention that still 60% have a favourable view of America …what happened to being fair and balanced…more anti-Americanism from the ABC but i should have learned to live with it by now…oh well…

    http://abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/30/2019490.htm

  48. Glen,

    Why do you care what the ABC says about a foreign leader? Could it be you secretly want to be an American? Is that why you’re so in love with Howard’s IR reforms and Foreign Affairs policies?

  49. Hmm A debate… some ideas:

    1. Tag team wrestling with a real wrestling ring. If you pin your opponent, he/she has to answer Rove’s $20 in 20 secs..

    2. Comperes? Hughsey? Naomi Robson (should be available, I think!), Humphrey (VERY hard to answer his questions)

    3. In the event of a tie, a “sing-off” with call-in voting (song choices Howard: Only the good die young? Rudd: Flashdance?)

    4. Substitute the worm for a pair of lie detectors?

  50. BROWN BELCHINGS

    As is my want, I read in the Courier Mail (Brisvegas) the Greens are doing the usual ‘open ticket’ threats to Labor and Labor is resisting a public allignment with them, but to keep a promise to Bill, the would be member for Kingston who frequents this site, I will not speak the name that must not be spoken (FF) and preference deals in the same sentence.

    Ollie had a looksie at the Greens vote in Coalition marginals (0.1-5.0 2PP) at the 2004 Federal election.

    Where the Greens share of the primary vote was 5% or better, the flow of Green 2PP preferences to Labor was between 70-88%, with the majority of them flowing 75% or bettter to Labor. {Kalgoorlie was the exception with 64%}.

    The seats I am talking about include the one’s mentioned by Bob Brown in his ‘open ticket’ threat media blurb. These are Bennelong, Dobell, Eden Monara, Macquarie, Wentworth,Deakin, Bonner, Moreton,Kingston, Hasluck, Stirling, Bass, Braddon and Solomon.

    Mathematically speaking, Labor could be wise in assuming it likely that at least 70% of Green 2PP preference flows in these critical Coalition seats will go to Labor…so they can afford to not deal with the Greens and perhaps be open to deal with…with….yeah that mob I cant mention without setting poor ole Bill Weller into a spin. I know who I would be ‘playing footsies’ with Mr Brown, with no disrespect, if I was aiming at winning this election.

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