Galaxy: 57-43

The News Limited stable today brings us a poll from Galaxy, an outfit that has traditionally given the Coalition more cause for optimism than its rivals. Not this time though: after rising into the 40s in June and July, the Coalition primary vote is back down to 39 per cent, while Labor is up from 44 per cent to 47 per cent on last month. Labor’s 57-43 two-party lead likewise returns to the situation in May, and compares with 54-46 last month. Attitudinal questions find respondents more likely to attribute the budget surplus to high taxes than good management, and overwhelmingly inclined to think Rudd a “normal bloke” on account of the strip club incident. However, it appears that not all of the 1,004 interviews were conducted over the past weekend (note the bottom of the press release: “These surveys were conducted by Galaxy Research. The most recent survey was administered on the weekend of 24-26 August”). It therefore cannot be stated with confidence how timely these figures are, or whether the entire sample was in a position to pass judgment on the strip club affair or the budget surplus.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

372 comments on “Galaxy: 57-43”

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 5 6 7 8
  1. Ok so that being that this is your opinion Jasmine…you then by proxy support al-Qaeda in Iraq by wanting Coalition troops to leave…you support Iraqi descending into anarchy…you support surrender in the face of terrorism…you support leaving innocent Iraqis at the mercy of terrorists and insurgents…

    I doubt you would have the courage to look an Iraqi in the eyes and say i dont care what happens to you i want to leave you to the terrorists, i dont want you to live in a peaceful stable country and i want you to suffer…because that’s what you’d have to tell them…

    Funny how neo-conservatives can have as much if not more empathy than liberal progressives….

    I can bet you one thing…al-Qaeda in Iraq is hoping and praying for a Rudd victory, why??? Because Rudd will go on the defence against terrorism we need to go on the attack against these murderers…appeasement against terrorism is never going to stop them Jasmine it didnt work in 1938 it wont work in 2007.

  2. “Call the election please”, it would not be a good idea to hand out a how-to-vote with blank instructions. In NSW at least, preferences are optional in state elections and handing out a vote 1 The Greens and then saying choose your own may well lead to a number of informal votes.
    Do you remember Bob Hawke asking to green voters to give Labor second preferences? I understand that was Graham Richardson’s tactic.
    He was going directly to them, in a sense to ignore any printed how to votes and preference Labor anyway. Well it seemed to work.
    Look there’s no doubt that the Coalition’s record hitherto on the environment has been woeful, much worse than Labor’s, which in itself has not been good.
    I cannot understand why Coalition leaders don’t get that the environment should not just be a left wing issue. You can be fiscally conservative yet have really great environmental policies, as the UK Conservatives do now (not that it is doing them much use in the polls currently).
    Sometimes, in the heat of an election, a dramatic gesture can have an effect on voters – swinging voters of course.
    Look back at previous elections and see how wildly the polls swing during the actual campaign.
    The actual election result may hinge on a handful of votes in three or four seats. Those are the ones both sides will be after.
    Karl Rove was a great campaigner and went to enormous lengths to find out every detail of swinging voters in important areas.
    If either Kevin Rudd or John Howard has such a person he or she will be interviewing hundreds of people in seats like Page and Wentworth.
    The most fertile ground for votes is to be found in the middle and amongst middle minor party voters. These are the former Democrat and current Green voters. That’s where I’d be looking to win or save my government.
    Let’s see if their hard right wing ideology overrides their will to win!

  3. It depends whether the decision was based on ‘outcomes’ ie training of Iraqi security forces is going well or whether it was ‘time’ based and just a ‘political decision’.

  4. Richard the Greens have offered out ‘blank’ how to vote cards a previous elections. In my last State election I handed out Green HTV’s and they said “Number 1 for Greens and then preference each other box as desired” or something to that extent.

    I believe in my electorate at the Federal level they did the same thing.

    I’m well aware of optional preferential in NSW and think it’s stupid.

    Whilst it’s certainly not true on a broad level and all encompassing level, electoral profiling has demonstrated Greens voters are more politically aware. They are more likely to number below the line in Senate elections etc.

    As such I don’t think it’d be a huge problem for the Green’s to have ‘blank’ how to votes.

    The Greens also have a philosophy that they don’t ‘sell out’ on one area of ‘bad policy’ in exchange for a deal on an area of ‘good policy’. This means they’d need to weigh up which of the 2 major parties was more deserving on a totality of issues, rather than just one issue.

    If they were to decide the Coalition was more deserving at this election that’d be sure grounds for me to decide they aren’t the party for me.

  5. Re Glen 255:

    Well it depends on whether we can ever really trust Howard on what he says at face value. I would never believe him to do something other than for political reasons.

    I’d similarly assume the ALP position on Iraq would be reassessed once they win office and get briefed by DFAT, Defence, other experts etc.

    Your overriding tendency would be to trust the Liberal Party with whatever step it took concerning Iraq. This is because you’re a party member who obviously does not question enough and is very loyal. I doubt you could ever look at the ALP’s position objectively.

  6. I am surprised at the Greens according to the polls their vote is being absorbed into the ALP’s primary vote thus the Greens could well sidelined politically…the Greens would never back the Coalition they have been taken over by the hard left and would be destroyed as a political institution if they backed Howard…

  7. 252 – Glen : thanks hun … any time someone suggests you are genuine or have a point of view worth listening to I will point them to that. It is the definitive own goal.

  8. Jasmine it just shows that you are more than happy to attack me for my views but say i kick own goals when i make my views heard…hypocrisy comes to mind Jasmine if you can’t stand the heat get out of the kitchen…

    To be honest i know why Nostro Steven and Cedric hardly post here because anything that goes contrary to ‘your’ views is labeled as not being genuine or straight from the party handbook…

  9. I think a good idea for electoral reform is to make a political party field candidates in 25% of seats to qualify as a party for the next election.

    ALP OK
    Greens OK
    FF OK
    Pauline’s Raving loonies OK

    Nats ?? Ha Ha. Just kidding. 🙂

  10. I agree with jasmine_Anadyr 231 that the Greens are going to have to preference Labor because of global warming.

    It is true that Howard has promised an emission trading scheme (ETS) but Labor is way ahead of Liberals on being seen to have their heart in tackling this issue, in being honest about what they might be thinking of doing and in having all sorts of extra measures on top of an ETS.

    The Liberals main counter was their claim that nuclear power is the answer. This is not accepted by very many Greens.

    Further, although this has not been noted anywhere yet, the Liberals have managed to put themselves behind by another decade on this in the recent reactor plebiscite kerfuffle. Before last week they only had to acknowledge that it will be 15 years before reactors were up and running and supposedly replacing coal generators. That is assuming that the planning process is begun within a year or two and the building starts in 5 years.

    After the kerfuffle their line has got mixed but at least a few (eg Pyne on lateline last week) were suggesting that it will be 10-15 years before we have the local plebiscites.

    Thus there would be a further 15 years of detailed environmental planning process and construction I presume.

    We would thus see Australia being able to replace some coal stations soon after 2035.

    I would suggest that most Greens would know that we need to be doing something a little sooner than this if we did not want run away climate change. Greens might also know that we would then be starting to use reactors whose normal 50 year life-time would outlive the remaining supplies of world uranium.

    I find it hard to imagine too many Greens thinking that Liberals have the better way forward.

  11. Your view was that I support al-Qaeda; simply because I don’t support your proposed ‘solution’ to a massive failure you have supported unquestioningly from before its start.

    A failure many of us predicted, including the VP of the USA. Watch the video and learn. I am delighted you have a contrary view and if ever you decide to argue your view rather than resort to abuse then maybe we can talk it thru.

    It is not at all hypocritical in any way at all to suggest your post (containing a disgusting outrageous and contrary to all the evidence you refuse to discuss allegation) is an appropriate way for others to characterise your posts.

    That the post puts you, and your lack of argument in this important area, in a dreadful light, is indeed my opinion and as you can point to my posts and ask others to judge me by what I put together, what is right what is wrong and how I respond when I’m corrected or shown to be wrong is of course as fair as what I am doing to you.

    But just remember you just accused me of what is a crime in Australia, I am merely characterising the value of your posts through one of the most disgusting ones.

  12. I have to hand it to you Glen – your ability to see hope where none exists is admirable, if somewhat deluded. However, your perplexity is well-placed – if Labor do go on and win (and I can’t see how that won’t happen now) it will indeed be a highly unlikely victory. After all, the government is not incompetent (they are evil, but they carry out their mendacious policies in a reasonably competent fashion), the economy is still going gangbusters and terrorism is still a threat of some potency.

    And yet the government is on track for an historic defeat. In the end there are but two reasons for what will be an extraordinary result. The tipping point was WorkChoices. This has been rightly seen by punters as a betrayal by Howard, and it’s dumb politics to boot – WCs shafts (or at least threatens to shaft) the very swinging voters that got JWH elected, and these are people who aren’t particularly interested politics. What WCs has done has mobilise these people against the government.

    The second reason is that Howard has hung around too long. I believe that if JWH had have retired last year, the Libs would at least be competitive with Labor now, even allowing for WCs. I really looks now as if that “time for a change” ethos is gaining unstoppable momentum.

  13. “…you then by proxy support al-Qaeda ”

    Statements like this are part of the reason I no longer support the Liberal Party. It used to be that the Libs were tolerate of other views and supported the right of party supporters to disagree with the party line. However under Howard that right has been destroyed. Now if you disagree with Howard on any foreign affairs issue you are branded as Anti-Semitic, Anti- American, Un-Australian, pro-terrorist, etc. Democracy in the party has been killed by Howard.

  14. Surprise, Surprise – NOT, the AMA is opposing Labor’s Super Clinics – talk about closed shops.

    [The GP “super clinics” are part of Labor leader Kevin Rudd’s $2 billion health reform package, which includes a potential federal takeover of public hospitals.

    Dr Capolingua said one aspect of the plan that would provide space and training facilities for medical students and trainees was welcome.

    But the AMA had identified several potential problems with the plan, she said.

    Labor had to explain whether the GP super clinics would run the risk of further stripping medical services from smaller rural, regional and remote communities, she said.

    “We … have concerns that super clinics in larger regional areas would tempt doctors away from smaller country towns, leaving them without doctors and without any hope of attracting new doctors,” Dr Capolingua said.]

    Can you imagine Shrek’s response if theACTU said something similar ?

  15. Jasmine your foreign policy on Iraq is in line with the desires of those terrorist groups in Iraq whether you like it or not you cannot deny this as Barrack Obama did…But while i am wrong to say you de-facto support al-qaeda by your foreign policy opinions they are what the terrorists want to happen for us to leave with our tails between our legs…

    I just hope you in considering your view, which whilst i am totally against it, it doesnt make your views less valid, but look at the consequences of a Coalition withdrawal is that really what is best for Iraq…

    You are entitled to your opinion as anybody else but i stress that it is no secret that these murderous groups want us out of Iraq for good reason so that they can destroy the country…

    Back on the topic for the thread…if the next polls dont shift in the months ahead its just about all over for the Coalition…

  16. Glen, Coalition troops _will_eventually leave Iraq, whether it’s after two years, five years, ten years, or whatever.

    And when they leave, *very bad things* will happen in Iraq.

    It does not matter how long the Coalition troops stay, they cannot prevent the *very bad things* that will happen after they leave.

    The only result of the Coalition troops staying longer is to _add_ to the bad things happening, because bad things are already happening in Iraq now with Coalition troops present.

    If the Coalition troops leave now, we will have very bad things happening in Iraq. But if they stay for another ten years we will simply have ten years of the bad things that happen with them present added to the very bad things that will still inevitably follow their eventual departure.

    That is why the Coalition troops should be withdrawn as soon as possible. The appropriate maxim is: ‘Better a horrible ending than horrors without end.’

  17. We are always saying “The next poll… the next poll”

    It’s neverending.

    I’m always a fan of it’s not over til it’s over though. There’s still around 2 months or so at least to the election. If a week’s a long time in politics, what’s a month?

  18. If we thought blow-back was bad in Afghanistan…how bad will it be from Iraq if we dont sort it out there now….

    I’ve pushed too many buttons on the other side of politics enough to want me dead and buried but if Rudd wins im sure they’ll have fun sniping at Cedric Me Steven and Nostro…oh well.

  19. Typical.

    You try to set up some new clinics, and Union Thugs barge in, in big white coats.

    Capolingua my a*se. Capo de tutti cappi more like it!

  20. “Back on the topic for the thread…if the next polls dont shift in the months ahead its just about all over for the Coalition…”

    Glen, to quote Mr Bolt “It’s over”. 🙂

  21. Putting the policy issues in relation to Iraq it seems that the ability of the Govt. to pull a political plus out of the mess (as in 2004) has deserted it.

  22. ‘Jasmine your foreign policy on Iraq is in line with the desires of those terrorist groups in Iraq whether you like or not you can’t deny this’.

    Two little points, but first thank you for admitting you were wrong to accuse me of a criminal sympathy.

    First little point, seeing as I don’t talk to the terrorists I can only guess what they would want. I would guess, from all the available evidence, that the ongoing presence of US forces and the ongoing instability that causes and which has no apparent end in sight:

    ** gives the the terrorists the very perfect conditions to both pursue their hatred with immediate death and destruction; while at the same time
    **keeping publicity of, and goodwill towards al-Qaeda across the Muslim world at all time highs, highs that create ideal recruitment conditions for a generation more, at least, of terrorist volunteers.

    Yes if we leave they will claim it as a victory, but you can’t stay and pursue a completely futile task just because someone is going to spin your exit to their advantage. I put it to you, they are spinning our presence there every day to much greater advantange than they could ever use our withdrawal for.

    It doesn’t even do the US much damage, if you consider that US prestige is important, that damage has already been done, the civilians are in the dreadful conditions you suggest they will have if we leave already.

    What makes you think terrorists would prefer everyone left? I put it to you leaving is much more like throwing the light on in a night-club to get rid of the patrons at closing time. Party over.

    Second point you say to me ‘you cannot deny’ but the point of my post was that I don’t need to deny it, because you haven’t put a case up for it. Put up a coherent case and then I might need to put up contrary arguments and deny it. You currently don’t have a case that I can make out, you have assumptions.

  23. “If Australia was an increased terrorist target because of Iraq…why has the biggest attack on Australians Bali 02 occurred before the Iraq War in 2003?”

    This assumes that the Bali attack was directed specifically at Australians. According to (at least one of) the bombers, they were seeking to target Western foreigners/”America & it’s allies” in a generic sense. Australians happen to form a subset of this generic group & bore a large proportion of the casualties in the bombing but claiming they were singled out specifically is like saying the Red Army was specifically after the Bavarians in WW2.

  24. Glen #266
    [Back on the topic for the thread…if the next polls dont shift in the months ahead its just about all over for the Coalition…]

    I finally find a sentence on topic from you. And yes I agree with you for once. Funny how at the end of every month this same messages come through: A few more polls like that and it is cactus for your granpa.

    The only difference is that it is now 5 minutes to election and as you well know you can’t fatten the pig on market day.

    You can’t change leaders, you can’t change policies. All that is left is massive pork on a monumental scale which will massively feed interest rates and kill any last vestige of economic credibility.

    This will be the last hurrah which will show Granpa in his real light – when it comes to choose between political survival and the national interest, self preservation always and invariably comes first. Anyone remember the race card???

    So what to do hey? Like lambs to the slaughterhouse, the coalition backbenchers and bloggers still believe in Santa!

  25. Also, Glen I’d suggest that the last thing AQ want is for foreign troops to leave Iraq: there aren’t too many brownie points to be earned by them playing in a purely intra-Iraqi conflict and they will have neither the constant flow of propaganda material for recruitment nor the real life training environment for those candidates whom they attract.

  26. Glen

    I suspect the scales are dropping from your eyes. Yes, as Andrew Bolt said on Insiders: “It’s over.”

    Take your pill. Hard times ahead. We have done it for 11 horrible years.

  27. 275

    The second in command in Al-Quaeda, the brains behind the operation, is on record as saying they prefer the invading forces stay there, for the same basic reasons as you outlined.

    Furthermore, the Americans are almost certainly going to withdraw at least half their forces within about 12 months. So those who throw around meaningless, offensive accusations of ‘cut and run’, and ‘surrendering to the terrorists’, against the critics of the war, are going to have to find a new and no doubt equally meaningless and offensive set of catch phrases.


    If I recall correctly, the main planners of the Bali bombing were disappointed with killing so many Australians because they had actually been after Americans.

  28. Glen – get you buddies to support Abbott if Howard goes down.

    IMHO – he’s a warrior, communicates well, isn’t scared of a stoush, carries the bulk of the Liberal Party with him, has media smarts, parliamentary skills, has limted baggage ie wasn’t Treasurer and could make some yards against a new Labor Government.

    Opposition will be tough, you’ll need someone tougher. Sure he won’t look like a PM in waiting, but you won’t need one for the first five years.

    He’s your man.

  29. The Conservatives in America and Australia know the war in Iraq is lost. All they are doing is trying to set up the conditions to be able to blame the left for the defeat. That’s why Glen keeps banging on about the surge is working, if only we could stay a little while longer, etc. etc. When the inevitable happens and it all goes to shite they’ll say we could have won but the lefties stole victory from us just like they did in Vietnam. It’s all just part of a blame game now, but pity the poor sobs who will die between now and when the inevitable retreat occurs.

  30. Glen says: Jasmine your foreign policy on Iraq is in line with the desires of those terrorist groups in Iraq…

    Glen glen glen glen… before the invasion of Iraq, there were no terrorist groups there… you helped make them. Now it’s time to fix up the mess that you’ve created.

    Just like Vietnam.

  31. We’ve strayed off-topic in debating you, Glen, but it is necessary to confront the Iraq mess. If you do actually care about what happens to the Iraqis, I would strongly urge you to read more -especially from Iraqis themselves . There’s plenty of blogs with their views.

    The general feeling is that the Americans (or Cow, if you prefer) are doing no good at all in their continued occupation. There is no evidence that the Counterinsurgency has had any positive impact.

    As to Al Qaida, they’re about as popular locally as the Exclusive Brethren are here. If the Americans pulled out they’d last about 4 weeks. They’re only tolerated at all because they provide some armed resistance to the Americans. Contrary to what you’re claiming, it is the presence of the Americans that encourages Al Qaida. They weren’t even in Iraq prior to the invasion/occupation, and they won’t be there long after the withdrawal. Iraq was secular previously. Ultimately, peace will only come about from restoring secularism.

    Face it, the only reason Bush wants to hang on prior to the end of his term is so that someone else carries the can for the failure and withdrawal.
    But why should so many more lives be sacrificed just to save his ass?

    Great poll result by the way.

  32. Who thinks today’s Galaxy Poll will make Howard call the election sooner, or later?

    Or will today’s result have no change on Howard’s intended election date?

    I think it could make it later, such as the 1st, 8th or 15th of December. You know, run the election campaign when people are more worried about Christmas shopping, and what to do with the kids when they are on school holidays.

    Run the election when they are distracted, and hope they don’t pay attention.

  33. The problem with America and Iraq, is that if you asked the majority of Iraqi’s what sort of government they actually wanted, you’d end up with Iran.
    Thanks for making a bad situation worse Glen.
    Just like Vietnam.

  34. Simon Howson Says:Who thinks today’s Galaxy Poll will make Howard call the election sooner, or later?

    Nov. 3 regardless. The advertisements are locked in, and it’s the week before the RBA meets. Any later, and it’s another interest rate rise. What will be a landslide will become a rout.

  35. Problem is, if Howard leaves it longer than early-mid November, people will see it as an abuse of democracy, and abuse him for it electorally, more so.

  36. And there goes another Rabbit for Howard:

    [An audit by the Workplace Ombudsman has found a company owned by federal Opposition Leader Kevin Rudd’s wife Therese Rein is not underpaying its staff.

    More than 100 staff members at Your Employment Services (YES), owned by Ms Rein’s company WorkDirections Australia, were underpaid last year – some by as much as $4,000.

    An investigation by the Office of Workplace Services (OWS) completed in June found WorkDirections had broken the law, but not deliberately.

    The office of the Workplace Ombudsman said an audit carried out in the wake of the OWS investigation had concluded that WorkDirections’ employees were being paid correctly in accordance with the Community Employment, Training and Support Services Award.

    “The Workplace Ombudsman randomly sampled approximately 20 per cent of WorkDirections’ workers and examined relevant records,” a statement from the ombudsman said.

    “The workplace ombudsman’s analysis of records relating to the sampled workers revealed that the employees had been classified and paid correctly for the period of the audit.

    “Based on the results of this targeted audit, the Workplace Ombudsman will not take any further action unless a specific individual complaint is received.”]

  37. 7News exclusive – Aussie soliders using faulty weapons
    By Michael McKinnon, FOI Editor
    Australian soldiers fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan are using faulty weapons and ammunition with up to 70,000 of the standard issue Steyr rifles having flaws causing stoppages.

    Must be part of a Labor Party conspiracy. Afterall we all know the Federal Government doesn’t make mistakes.

  38. I’m leaning towards Oct 20th for the election. Before the CPI figures are announced, it was thought that maybe the interest rate rise would make people return to the coalition, this is obviously wrong.

    So call the election before all the financial Journo’s and “economists” start talking about the inevitable interest rate rise.

    Time scale fits, APEC, one more week of Parliament, then PARTY time. 🙂

  39. The one ‘rabbit’ Howard has up his sleave is that he can call the election when the thinks the election is ‘winable’…incumbency helps alot but it might not be enough to prevent a Rudd victory…

    Howard could stay until January 19th if he really wanted to so it would look a little better 1996-2008 but i think he’ll go when he reckons he’s got a shot…when Labor have to start bringing out its finalised policies thats when they’ll be most vulnerable so until the election is called the polls wont change alot but as if said consistently if when the election is called Labor is ahead by more than 55-45 its over plain and simple…

    But i wont give up just yet anyway you’d all prefer it i go into the election thinking we can win and then getting a Ruddslide just to see my reaction which would be ohhh s*&t!!!!!!!!!!!! But still life will go on whoever wins i just hope in the unlikely event Rudd does get in that his inexperience wont cost this nation too much and i also hope he’ll not be as anti-american as the Labor left wants…

  40. Will it be a 33 day campaign or, given how far Mr. Howard has to catch up, a much longer campaign? What would be the advantages of going long?

  41. Clearly Howard will want a very long campaign for obvious reasons to increase the changes of a Rudd slip up along the lines of Latham’s forestry policy/medicare gold…also it gives people more time to contemplate who they want as a leader which should help Howard more…

    The longer the better…

  42. But would a long campaign just risk boring people – would it just get caught in a certain election ennui… with Howard’s government slipping slowly beneath the waves. Afterall, they’ve been campaigning more or less since Feb…

  43. Generally speaking short campaigns are best when you are in front and long campaigns if you are behind, but Howard is so far behind he’d need a six month campaign.

  44. [Will it be a 33 day campaign or, given how far Mr. Howard has to catch up, a much longer campaign? What would be the advantages of going long?]

    Glenn Milne speculated a few weeks ago that it will be a long campaign. The government reckon Rudd will falter over the course of a long campaign.

    More likely it will just demonstrate that Howard is out of ideas.

Comments Page 6 of 8
1 5 6 7 8

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *