The government is not about to face any respite from those bad poll headlines: News Limited papers are today carrying a Galaxy poll which shows the Prime Minister heading for defeat in Bennelong, where he trails Labor’s Maxine McKew 53-47 on two-candidate preferred (a similar poll three months ago had it at 52-48). The Labor primary vote is at 47 per cent, compared with 28 per cent at the previous election (when much of the anti-Howard vote was harvested by Greens candidate Andrew Wilkie), while the Liberal vote is down from 50 per cent to 44 per cent. No quibbling with the sample size this time, either – there were 800 respondents, double the amount Westpoll used to gauge an entire state.
I cannot understand why people are writing off the seat of Wentworth for the Liberals….in 2004 the ALP polled just 19,391 primary votes compared to 30,771 votes primary votes for Turnbull and cmon the seat is only marginal because 13,236 people voted for Peter King the previous sitting member one would expect 2/3rds of that vote to go to Turnbull so i consider this an almost certain gain for the Coalition.
Steve
“it appears Howard’s intervention in the affair has damaged his own side”
The bit about the Qld councils and Flegg mirrors what Portlandbet says about Tassie (the hospital) and Eden Monaro (the mill) in that when Howard intervenes the odds for the labor party shorten in that seat.
Howards has shot himself in the foot so often recently that he must be walking on his heels.
steve Says:
August 12th, 2007 at 8:19 pm
“Looks like it is not only Bennelong where the Liberals have huge problems today. Infighting in the Queensland Parliamentary Liberal Party and also between Liberals and the state Nationals flared last Monday and it appears Howard’s intervention in the affair has damaged his own side”.
Flegg was on the nose beforehand steve, as you no doubt are aware if you live in sunny QLD too. The amalgamation issue didn’t hurt them.The insistence by JWH that they agree to the ‘deal’ he wanted did the damage by bringing to the surface the constant in-fighting and public leaking of damaging emails etc.
I don’t think a change of leadership is going to resolve the problems apparent inside the QLD Liberals nor between them and the QLD Nationals.
As an aside, Beattie has backed away from any ‘retirement’ plans, insisting in the QLD Mail that he might even stay on to contest the 2009 State election and Rudd reiterated his plain and simple view that he thinks Beattie has got it “wrong” regarding the amalgamation issue: Howard’s quip about Rudd reminding him of ‘Echo Point’ is at least right on this issue.
Your evidence that Brumby is not popular, Glen?
Adam, Brumby got pumped in 1996…and Bracks was more popular than him…enough said.
Adam but no matter how unpopular Brumby is he’ll win hands down in 2010 the State Liberals are a joke…that goes without saying.
The gap between labor and the coalition has increased to it’s largest ever on the most accurate indicator of all – Betfair.
ALP 1.53 – LIB2.76
Also Maxine is now more likely to win Bennelong than Howard is to win the election.
4. Don’t forget that Kevin Rudd speaks Mandarin, and has no doubt forged strong links with Australia’s Chinese communities. A few Labor ads on Chinese radio programs etc, with Kevin speaking in Chinese, could do wonders for Labor’s vote in Benelong. No doubt there’s some campaigning already going on along these lines, that most of us are unaware of.
Tony Says: at 6:59 pm
Most non-mainland and diaspora Chinese speak Cantonese. Mandarin is mainly spoken inside China. Nonetheless, the fact that Rudd speaks Mandarin will play very well in this Chinese-Australian community.
Centre
Kevin Rudd’s wife must be flooding the betting markets with her millions to keep Krudd odds on either that or it is the result of the level of hubris of ALP MPs in betting on the election outcome…
While I agree that poll showed Maxine in the lead, I doubt it will hold up enough for her to win …
I feel that as time goes on Maxine will increase her margin to close to 57%
enough for a clear win
Either way Maxine will eventually be the MP for Bennelong…its whether it is under a Coalition Government or an ALP Government that’s what at issue here…
If Howard resigns before the election and a by election is held before the general election Maxine will be an MP under a coalition gov.
If Howard stays to contest the election then Maxine will be an MP under a labor govt. No issue there.
Rudd’s wife is pretty smart she probably got set at the better odds!
Glen, imagine if Howard would have stepped down a year ago. Costello would have had a fair chance at showing his leadership qualities. Beazley would have been the leader of the labor party. And best of all Howard would have gone out a legend.
But no, Howard was too greedy and Cossie too weak. How sweet it is.
Talking of leaders the odds on who will be the next leader of the libs has shortened between Costello and Turnball across the betting markets.
Turnball is now 2.8 to 1.40 it was 6.50 to 1.20 not long ago.
This seems odd given that Turnball is in danger of losing his seat and the odds change is across all agencies offering the odds.
Something going down?
Apologies for the late response Aristotle. Copying Pythagoras` homework is all very well, Nostradamus` a different matter entirely. Beware not only of Greeks bearing gifts!
Arbie
Maxine would never be under a coalition Gvt-dammit she has morals man.
I presume you mean she would be an ALP member in opposition to a coalition Gvt.
I wonder how 3000votes.org is going these days oh and getup as well!
i suppose they may influence a handful of voters or two perhaps
Glen, your “evidence” that Brumby is not popular is that he lost a state election 11 years ago? Moronic statements like that is why no-one here takes you and your mates seriously. On that logic I can argue that Howard is not popular because he lost a federal election in 1987.
Most likely 6 – 8 weeks till the election is called.
Polls suggesting around 10 – 12% ALP lead, or thereabouts.
Howard is coming out of two appalling weeks – day after day of terrible polls, devastating leaks, gaffes and scandals – like the WorkChoices actor’s dodgy record, and Howard’s bizarre attempt to fudge his way out of the commitment made in 2004 Liberal advertising to maintain “record low” interest rates. In the last week each day has had more than one setback for Howard as top story in the news.
Commentators – even some of the more right-wing of them – are lining up to write Howard off or suggest the need for a last minute leadership spill.
And on top of all that, Howard is looking more and more inept politically. His attempts to wedge or gain momentum are being (rightly) read by the electorate as ill-thought out and desperate. Howard is becoming the main issue.
In light of the atrocious news week the Coalition has had, it would seem reasonable to expect a further decline in the polls this week.
As the election gets nearer, the chances of the Coalition turning things around are diminishing. In fact, the constant bad news stories for Howard and poor polling is likely to gain a momentum of its own (if it hasn’t already), becoming a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Three months. If the next few weeks pass without a major stuff up by Rudd, (and it would have to be major) or without Howard actually displaying some REALLY clever politics, then a massive landslide looks increasingly likely. A closing of the gap is actually seeming LESS likely.
Yes but Adam with all respect that was 20 years ago and Howard has been elected 4 times, Brumby just 10 years ago was rejected…
Centre your ramblings never cease to amaze me…last year the Government was tied with Beazley and were looking like an easy win in 2007 but Big Kim had other ideas and we got Rudd…i would hate to think how you would feel if you lost the election considering the amount of hubris you and some other Labor supporters have displayed 4 months out from an election…being cocky isnt going to win you the election, being cocky isnt going to change the fact that Rudd and almost 100% of his front bench have very little experience necessary to lead the country and being cocky wont change the fact that many people are undecided about the election…
I would temper your hubris if i were you…im sure many a Liberal supporter acted like you in 1993 and look what that got them…
Glen
Dolly agrees with you-
But when it comes to voting, in the end I suspect that people are more likely to vote for a leader with a record, with wisdom, with substance, than somebody who’s just … a manufactured product of a public relations company with no plan for the future
http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=285519
Glen, Adams logic is exactly right. Howard was elected 9 years after going to the polls and not winning against Hawke. Brumby is now premier 11 years after losing an election to Kennett.
Brumby is very popular now… which is why the liberals aren’t even fielding candidates in the by-elections against him.
Many Hong Kong speakers also speak Mandarin (my wife is from Hong Kong an does 3 dialects), Most of the Hong Kong group here were unaware of Howards Asian comments since they came out here later.
I certainly reminded them and sent them emails of the links to the comments at the time. I certainly turned a few. They seem to be natural Howard supporters because they are natural capitalists and many hold profit and status as everything.
A change of leadership can do wonders for a party’s chances of reelection. Example Great Britain: since Gordon Brown replaced Blair as Prime Minister, the British Labour Party has surged back into the lead in opinion polls(as of today, they lead the Conservatives by 10 points).
If the Liberals in this country had got rid of Howard and given the job to Costello 12 months ago, they’d have a much better chance of staying in power.
The problem is Howard!
Antony Green says whoever Wins Bennelong, will win Government.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2007/08/12/2002886.htm
“The ABC’s election analyst, Antony Green, says the survey is telling.
“The swing for Labor to win office is about 4.5 per cent, which is about the swing in Bennelong,” he said.
“I think it’s fair to say that whoever wins government will win Bennelong. If the Government is returned, John Howard will win Bennelong. If Labor wins the election then I think John Howard will probably lose his own seat.”
Mr Green says Ms McKew is a real threat.
“The current opinion poll in Bennelong matches every opinion poll we’ve seen this year and would indicate John Howard will have trouble holding on to his own seat,” he said.”
Oh Dear 🙂
#173, according to the Bookies`odds on Bennelong, Labor are still big outsiders then…but shortening.
Hoots
Mr Downer ruled out asking Mr Howard to stand down as prime minister in favour of Treasurer Peter Costello before the election.
“No one has any intention of tapping the prime minister on the shoulder. I haven’t heard people about to do that,” he said.
Downer is always the last to know.
But as I mentioned above there is something very odd with the betting market moving big time from Costello to Turnbull especially with Turnbull being in a marginal seat himself. And it is across all agencies laying on who will be the next lib leader. Turnbull had also been getting coverage focusing on his support of charities.
Probable scenario, Howard steps down after Apec and Turnbull leads them into the election. Howard does not want to be remembered as the PM who lost his seat in the election and the libs will stand a better chance with Turnbull than Howard or Costello.
Adam, re comment 132, how sure are you that Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe are “very solid labor”? 20+ years ago I used to see commentary noting that Australia had possibly the only Jewish community in the world that voted for the major centre-right party (probably today there are plenty of others), and the two polls of the Jewish community I have seen both had thumping Liberal majorities. It certainly fits with my experience.
All these were of the community as a whole, not just the first generation immigrants, but the size of the majorities was so large that I find it hard to believe the first generation could be solidly Labor, although I agree they are probably more so than the sample group as a whole.
And to the person who said they had seen data suggesting Asians in Bennelong split 50/50, I suspect it was from Shane Easson’s paper, published on http://www.mumble.com.au He pointed out that the problem for Howard was that the Asian immigration was to the previously safe Liberal parts of the seat, diluting these areas, while the small Labor pockets stayed Labor.
Expect some movement back to the Coalition in the AC Nielsen poll out tomorrow – the odds at Betfair have narrowed to 1.56 (ALP)/2.68 (Coalition) in the last hour and Sportingbet has narrowed from 1.52 (ALP)/2.60 (Coalition) to 1.58 (ALP)/ 2.35 (Coalition) since this afternoon.
would a change in leadership to Costello justify a 19th January election date.
the Lib’s could justify it based on Costello needing some time to bed down his ascension to the throne.
apart from the campaign being over christmas new year never being done, it maybe a novel idea. voters may also be more relaxed and foregiving after christmas lunch
Anyone calling an election with a campaign over the summer holidays would be murdered in the polls.
1 December for the election
Swing Lowe, a swing to the coalition based on last Nielsen 58/42 or other major pollers closer to the 55/45, 56/44 mark?
1. It’s too late to change leaders. They are stuck with Howard, for good or bad.
2. I think the election will be in early November.
3. Howard will use the next 6 weeks or so to do some more bribing in marginal electorates, try and get some positive publicity out of APEC, and hope Rudd’s halo starts to slip.
“The swing for Labor to win office is about 4.5 per cent, which is about the swing in Bennelong,â€
That much of a swing against the PM has to equate to a much bigger swing elsewhere.
If the betting markets have shrunk maybe its
1. a happier ACNeilsen for the Govt
2. rumour of a leadership challenge
3. some big bets being put down
I would assume it would be something closer to the 55/45-56/44 mark. It would need to be something showing that the Coalition has gained some sort of momentum in the polls to justify such a rapid movement in the odds.
It’s also worth noting that Centrebet has currently suspended betting on the Australian election and that Portlandbet’s odds for the federal election result have narrowed (since this afternoon) from ALP 1.48 to ALP 1.50.
Stephen L, I don’t dispute that the majority of the Jewish community vote Liberal. I was referring to the immediate post-WW2 generation, who are in their 70s and 80s now. In Melb Ports most of them are old Social Democrats or Bundists and strongly Labor. Their kids and grandkids have become wealthy and assimilated and increasingly vote Liberal, although many make an exception for Danby. Recently we have had an influx of ex-Soviet Jews, who are mostly elderly and not wealthy, and as far as one can tell most of them vote Labor. Caulfield is solidly Liberal, but East St Kilda, where most of the Russians live, and also the poorer Orthodox with large families, is still strongly Labor.
If anyone is interested in the Albert Park by-election, the Green candidate will be John Middleton. Labor will be holding a preselection ballot next weekend. The candidates I know of (there may be others) are Dick Gross (not a faction member but supported by the Right), Martin Foley (Left) and Lianna Thompson (Independent, supported by Thwaites). Thompson will come third and her preferences will go to Foley. Because the Right has the numbers on the central panel, Foley will need about 60% of the local vote to beat Gross. I doubt he can get that.
Darn – Australian election is no longer available on Centrbet.
Maybe some maintenance.
1. Glen. There is no evidence that the Vic state govt stance on the Murray/Darling initiative will cost the ALP votes. On the contrary, the Vic farmers organisation supported the state govts stance.
2. In Eden-Monaro, television ads for ALP candidate Mike Kelly have started, emphasising his local roots and his Army service. He must have plenty of money available for his campaign.
3. Re Chinese. Appropo of nothing much, I read in a Govt pamphlet somewhere recently that a certain Chinese language(sic) paper was the second or third largest readership in Australia.
4. Re McKew. She has already earned her money for the ALP. The distraction and uncomfortable comparisons she hes caused Howard in the last couple of weeks are priceless to the ALP campaign. Howard had to spend all weekend campaigning for himself, no help to marginal seatholders. This will count against him at party meetings during the next week.
5. Hubris. It is wonderful to contemplate the current polls, but I don’t think anyone (much) is getting too carried away. Still 10 to 15 weeks to go. However, I can imagine the howls of glee that we would be subjected to if the polls were reversed.
#182 re.3.some big bets being out down.
No doubt it`s Kev07`s wife laying off.
`big bets being put down`that should have read. Apologies for the lame atempted joke with typo.
I have a friend in Sydney who claims to have heard that Turnbull is close to making a move on Howard. The reasoning goes that Howard is poison, Costello too gutless and also poison, Abbott wouldn’t have the numbers and something desperate needs to be done or devastation will be at hand.
The problem for Turnbull is the hard right don’t like him, but might cop him if they think he will save them.
Can’t give any accuracy rating on the info. Might be an interesting week in Canberra!
Glen,
In Wentworth in 2004, King came 3rd in the primary votes and 62% of his (primary) votes went straight back to Turnbull. So in the end, it was a classic Liberal v Labor affair. Turnbull reaped the benefits of most of King’s voters with admittedly some, but not much, leakage to Labor. In the end the anti-Liberal swing was about 2.6%, about the same in similar seats across Sydney. King’s effect appears rather negligible.
The redistribution, strong Labor candidate and coattails of Rudd make this is a very possible pick-up for Labor.
Absolutely guys, something is going on with the betting for sure! The ACN poll is going to be crucial. I’m fearing a swing to the government.
Last time Labor had a very weak candidate in Wentworth and did little to support him, in the hope that he would come third and his preferences get King up. So comparisons between 2004 and 2007 don’t mean much. This is Labor’s first serious tilt at Wentworth since Jessie Street nearly won it in 1943. That’s why Rudd, Smith and Danby were there last week committing a lot of money for Jewish schools. Sydney Jews are more conservative than Melbourne Jews but Newhouse will be able to detach some of them.
Newhouse looks like a good candidate for Wentworth. Rudd has been lobbying the Sydney Jewish community for some time now, suggesting that Labor are absolutely serious about poaching this seat.
Also, is spite of whatever may be said of Turnbull, many of Howard’s values are completely antithetical with this electorate. The anti-Latham factor could have played a big role there last time.
Finally, whilst many have read Turnbull’s promotion to Environment Minister as a fast-tract to superstardom, I think it’s a bit of a poison chalice. Along with Hockey (who has the other poison chalice Liberal portfolio), they come across a bit like dodgy used-car salesman half the time.
189 MC,
If the ACN poll is not positive for Howard your friend could be right. I just don’t think it’s big bets going on given this weeks news and the way the market has suddenly reacted. Who knows we could be in for a huge week in politics???
As far as I can see Costello has moved out to $1.35 from $1.20 on Sportingbet
Maybe there are rumours Howard is being challenged, and this is being seen in the beating market as helping to improve the government’s chances of winning! 😛
Back in the real world, I don’t think there will be a challenge, because if it fails, then that disunity would be the end of the government. The only way there will be a change in leader is if Howard resigns, and that won’t happen because all he has ever wanted to be in life is Prime Minister. He isn’t giving it up unless he dies, or is voted out.
With such a large swing going on: is there actually any chance in the senate of a Labor:3 Coalition:2 Greens:1 or a Labor:4 Coalition:2 result in any state, as has been postulated?
Also perhaps the reason why (as the right-wing rednecks regularly point out) there is a left bias on this site is because most right-wing party supporters, support the Howard extremism and so haven’t had to concern themselves with politics as they have everything they’ve ever wanted (you can bet if the Greens ever come to power demos won’t be the home of the hippy but of the CEO) and also because many Liberal voters aren’t really political people, they just vote for the liberals because, not knowing any better, they’re sucked in by the propoganda.
” anybody aware of any evidence of a big spending campaign turning things around for a struggling candidate? ” Happy Revolutionary 141
Ian Wilson in Sturt might fit your example. Lost it in 69 to a big Labor swing in SA. Sturt was considered very safe Lib until then. Storming Norm got up for Labor. Ian Wilson sunk a fortune of his own considerable money (successfully) into winning it back in 72, despite a general pro-Gough sentiment in the It’s Time election. For the next election or two Wilson continued to run a highly personalised campaign (quite independent of general Lib campaigning) until it once again resumed its ‘very safe Lib’ status.
Of course, it could easily be argued that the huge pro-Labor swing to Sturt (and SA in general) in 69 was an aberration, and subsequent elections just reflected a return to equilibrium.