Westpoll: 54-46 (to Labor) in WA

The ABC reportedly reports that tomorrow’s Westpoll will show federal Labor has shot to a 54-46 lead in Western Australia, the one state believed to have been holding out against the tide. It should be noted that Westpoll is widely criticised for its small samples, usually 400 respondents. How The West Australian managed to get scooped by the ABC on its own poll results is yet to be explained.

UPDATE: News reports that Westpoll has the Labor primary vote at 43 per cent, up from 36 per cent last month, with the Coalition down from 46 per cent to 38 per cent.

UPDATE 2: Westpoll also conducted a state poll from the same sample, which gives us a chance to assess how roguish this poll is. Answer: very. While it is clear that the Carpenter government has the measure of the opposition under its current leadership, it’s hard to credit the spasm shown in the table below. It would thus be wise to add a 5 per cent discount to the vote recorded for Labor in the federal poll.

ALP LNP 2PP
May 39 39 51.2
Apr 41 38 54.5
Jun 42 40 52.3
Aug 48 30 62.0

Note: The Coalition vote shown for today’s poll assumes a 3 per cent vote for the Nationals, which is an educated guess that might be out by 1 per cent either way. The West Australian has mischievously declined to include this information so it can show a “Liberal” primary vote with a 2 in front of it.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

232 comments on “Westpoll: 54-46 (to Labor) in WA”

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  1. It is critical for everyone to remember that elections are not won and lost on TPP votes on a state or nation-wide basis. They are won at seat level where local candidates and local issues can have precedence. We can have 54-46 TPP in WA and still have Swan and Cowan fall to the Government. This will lose Rudd the election.

    In general, Howard has changed tactics again. He has lost focus from “big picture” electioneering to guerilla warfare. Rudd has to gain 16 seats. JH intends to try and deny these 16 seats from Labor. So he chooses the 16 seats he believes Rudd must win and spends a fortune trying to buy the votes there. Nothing else matters.

    While it shows movement to the ALP, it does not mean this election is over and all lefties should not be shouting from the rooftops as such.

  2. It’s funny that the Coalition is calling this a Rogue poll. The punters obviously don’t think so, as the betting market has shifted markedly. Centrebet now offers the following odds:

    ALP: $1.52
    Coalition: $2.55

    Correct me if I’m wrong, but this is actually a worse position for the Coalition than the ALP had during 2004. The punters obviously think that Westpoll is onto something.

  3. “It is critical for everyone to remember that elections are not won and lost on TPP votes on a state or nation-wide basis.” So second preferences don’t count? I didn’t know that. Any party that gets 53/54% TPP next election will win it. Are you seriously suggesting the coalition could win with 46/47 TPP?

  4. It’s clearly a rogue poll, but I’d still think that the Mersey Hospital thing would have a negative impact on the Coalition vote in WA – over here a lot of people would distrust signs of centralising things to Canberra.

    I’d guess the best Labor could hope for in WA currently would be 51-49 – but at that Labor might still have a chance of winning Kalgoorlie or even Canning where the swing in 2004 just seemed wrong.

  5. Grooski, that is just plain incorrect. Elections ARE “won and lost on TPP votes on a state or nation-wide basis.” In urban seats, seat-level factors count for 1 or 2% at most. If there is a big swing on, they go down like dominoes, regardless of how good the local member is or how bad the challenger is. Malcolm Mackerras demonstrated this more than 30 years ago. (see Australian General Elections, 1972). It is always possible to point to exceptions, but overwhelmingly that is the case. (In country seats, local issues and candidate quality count for much more.) If there is a 5% statewide swing to Labor in WA, there is at least a 90% likelihood that Stirling and Hasluck will fall.

  6. Adam @ 2:47 pm:

    Thanks for that marvellous burst of insight. I never thought of that myself!

    The funny thing is, you’re always the first to sanctimoniously tell people that “this is a place for electoral analysis” or “this isn’t a site for policy debate”…

  7. I agree that Howard looks more and more desperate with each new stunt. But I thought that when the Tampa sailed into view and when Howard started jumping up and down like a child and bleating about ‘borders’, remember ‘borders’ everyone? Within days however it was obvious that the majority did not consider it desperate. Perhaps all he needs is to hit onto the right theme. I beleive that if he could, Howard would bring in the army to stop being thrown out. There is a possibility that the thought of losing will drive him over the edge. After S/11 and the Iraq War, Howard was constantly saying that it was in the National Interest that the Coalition be returned.

  8. Howard’s credibility is completely shot. Once the electorate start ignoring you, it is all over. I think the deal has basically been done between Labor and the electorate, and there is nothing the government can do to change that. The government has wedged itself in terms of both politics and policy.

    I understand the (partly justified) caution some commentators have about predicting the election outcome, but as far as I can tell all that is left to guess now is the size of the Labor win.

  9. John Howard’s problem is that he has left himself with no choice but to fight the election on negatives, If you vote for Labor the sky will fall and you will be unemployed, homeless, lackeys of the union movement.

    All Kevin Rudd has to do is hint that he has a vision for the future.

    I think Howard has forgotten he is the PM, he is acting more like a State opposition leader, look how far that tactic got them.

  10. Mr Q, Westpoll has the ALP up 54/46 2pp, margin of error of about 4%. If you`re willing to admit that 51/49 is closer to the mark, howso a rogue poll?

  11. In terms of the 62-38 at the state level, that is no surprise at all. Remember, at the height of the CCC inquiry, the byelection that swung to the ALP in Peel?

    Just noted PM’s comments today saying the ALP was in front in Westpoll earlier in the year. That’s not true. This is the first Westpoll of the year to put ALP in front. ALP has been close (March 50.25 vs 49.75) but never in front.

    Two polls ago, when it showed Coalition 56.3 vs 43.7, he talked at length to the West Australian about what it meant.

  12. Yep, brilliant article. Also addresses the issue that Labor marginals are at risk of being taken by the Coalition, something that many people in the left choose to ignore.

  13. I never read Janet Albrechtson, I think she writes nonsense, and is there to appeal to a portion of their readership who hold the same views. The same with Ackerman. However the rest of The Oz has been pretty good these past few weeks.

    I am not happy with The Oz running that Echono report on its friday front page without acknowledging that it results were irrelevant as Labor’s IR laws are different to the paramaters used in the report.

    In fact they should have stated that the ACCI is headed by a ex-Liberal staffer and that the ACCI may well have had a hand in drafting WorkChoices and has been a fanatical supporter of it from the start. Thus the report was most likely commissioned and designed to produce a negative result.

    Rudd now needs to move on and firm up the image of him as PM in the mind of voters. Being in control, taking action and as a team. Make them feel calm and confident as we did with Hawke.

  14. At noted by other posters – Howard’s desperate interventions will do him no help in WA. (Despising wise men from the east is a state pastime)

    Hasluck is won for the ALP – former member Sharryn Jackson is campaigning well. Stuart Henry, who has had difficulty settling his office down, faces a backlash over local brickworks.

    Stirling is won for the ALP – Former SAS officer Tinley up against former Liberal staffer in Keenan. (my own seat). Aside from putting his face on bus-stops everywhere, Keenan hasn’t actually done much. As described in the local paper, it’s like a fight between a soldier and boy scout.

    Kalgoorlie and Canning will be tight. Howard went campaigning in Kalgoorlie and Moore (10.8%). This told all of us something was happening. Maybe Forrest is in the mix as well??

  15. I used to live in a safe seat, and now I live in a marginal seat, and the only difference I’ve noticed, is that here the PO Box garbage bin is full of political direct mail material. In the safe seat we didn’t get bombarded with “literature” and here we do. It’s just a waste of money, our money, and I reckon it makes very little difference.

    As for handouts to the electorate, there was an announcement for a water pipe of some sort, but it’s all discounted as an election year bribe. The consensus is, thanks for the handout, but I’m still voting you out.

    I reckon it’s just another of the political myths, this marginal seat campaigning. If there’s a big local issue and there are clear policy differences between the two candidates and their parties, then sure, it would make a difference. But heaps and heaps of direct mail, and election year bribes, will just reinforce the cynicism.

  16. Howard needs a credible message – blaming the states and bashing the unions won’t get him there.

    Labor Government in WA run big surplus and take on the unions when necessary. This probably happens right around the country? Certainly the public have trusted Labor, in eight jurisdictions, to run schools, hospitals, police and transport.

  17. Would have though the soaring house prices of many in the West would have meant many not in the mining industry felt reasonably OK with interest rates ejacking up etc. So this is indeed an interesting one in a state many commentators thought was going to be kind to JWH.

  18. You wouldn’t believe it. As I scrolled down to check out some of the comments on this site, who do you think was the first commenter I came across ? Nostradamus. Hi to all the other former oz politics bloggers.

    At oz politics I predicted that the betting would be around ALP 1.50 & LIB 2.75 by July. Like some other market analysts, the market is catching up to expert opinion. Just keep your eyes on coalition odds from here on, it’s going to get ugly.

    I’m tipping 59-41 2pp for mondays ACN poll. Hand over some tissues to Nostral, Glen and Steven. Oh there there. LOL

  19. Graeme Says:
    But could the PM get away with a back-flip of this magnitude?

    He’s going to try. Watch out for triple back somersault with pike on a daily basis till the election.

    It’s all the silly old coot has got left in the locker. Nothing has worked so far. It’s been belly flop after belly flop and it’s starting to sting a little now.

  20. Now that Franklin has been fixed up and the ‘Gropers have got with the program, I doubt there is any Labor-held seat in any danger of falling to the Coalition. Even if the Westpoll is only half right, that’s enough to make Cowan and Swan safe. The Victorian seats that looked wobbly earlier in the year are now also regarded as safe – that’s why Vic Labor has gone on the offensive with a new candidate in La Trobe.

  21. On the subject of WA, can anyone recall the last time an election was still up in the air prior to seats over there being decided? It`s certainly well within the realm of possibility this year – a bit like extra time in the footy if it does happen. Bring it on, one state to go and Labor needs 3 gains to get over the line…

  22. Graeme Says:
    August 11th, 2007 at 1:16 pm
    ps – for those who like to mock the Oz. Greg Sheridan’s report (URL in my last post), in the space of three short paras, spells the Iraqi PM as ‘Malaki’, ‘Maliki’ and ‘Malaki’ again. Of course Greg is the expert on Islamic politics and culture…

    I think the last Morgan poll and the West poll have finally tipped poor old Shannahan over the edge good and properly.

    Considering the outrageous anti-Howard propaganda that has swamped the media and the biased, self serving tax-payer funded ABC over the last year no wonder Rudd MAY win the election. We have seen rabid, mad dog attacks on JWH and the government that are not based on facts and reality but on mania and propaganda worthy of Dr. Goebbels.

    He needs more than a Bex and a good lie down now. Possibly a long holiday to the place Andrew Bolt recently went to may help.

    Bolters came back on deck with some almost reasonable articles for a time. Maybe it was some sort of Resort that people who are addicted to strange substances go to to dry out.

    Perhaps Mitchell is giving it some consideration. May be even thinking of joining him.

  23. The Westpoll is good PR for Labor even if it is a rogue poll. It may well not be a rogue poll anyway. Poll publicity like this tends to become self-fulfilling. People do like to be on the winning side.
    John Howard is not taking the traditional stance of drawing the wagons around the seats that may be saved but is trying to save each marginal in turn – save a hospital here, save a mill there, referendum on council amalgamations there.
    Unfortunately for him when he thinks he has put out a bushfire it re-ignites and another half a dozen break out elsewhere. Now he has to contend with several new bushfires in WA.
    At some point he may indeed have to adopt the strategy of saving as many of his colleagues as he can.
    He still thinks he can win and so do writers in the Australian.
    The rate rise will only have influenced the Westpoll to a certain extent. What would the result have been if everyone had known of the rate rise before being polled?
    In the meantime the markets are melting down around the globe and reserve banks are pumping in hundreds of billions of dollars to maintain liquidity. It will be interesting to see what happens on Monday.
    Many commentators, including Peter Costello, are trying to downplay the effects on Australia.
    One extraordinary figure in today’s Australian is that there are $US400 trillion, yes trillion, dollars worth of derivatives floating around the marketplace.
    Also, not in today’s Australian, $1.3 trillion dollars worth of US housing loans are behind in their payments. Total housing loans are roughly $13 trillion dollars.
    As interest rates get driven up by lack of liquidity and reluctance to lend money, the repercussions will flow way beyond CDOs. Good time to be in cash.
    It is highly likely the Reserve Bank will increase rates again before the election accordingly to economic commentators.
    The anger at John Howard is likely to increase not wane.
    The promise to keep interest rates at a record low has well and truly come back to haunt him. It was just another lie. He knew, or should have, that he had very little control over interest rates.

  24. I’m hoping people will be calling this election while Tassie is still being counted – then we can sit back and watch Coalition panelists squirm for the rest of the night. Please let it be so…

  25. I will take issue with “In Redcliffe, 22,000 adults out of a total of 34,000 voters signed a protest petition”. As quoted by Pearson.

    When the petition was examined only 11,000 voters signed the petition as confirmed by Bruce Flegg.

    Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story 😉

  26. That`d be the political equivalent of a `quickie` Hoots. Nothing wrong with the scenic route, as long as you get there in the end.

  27. “Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story”

    You’re right ruawake. Pearson’s article is a pitiful string of squibbed figures, wishful thinking and chronic denial. Pretty funny, really…

  28. The last election in which the result hinged on the WA seats was (TTBOMR) 1974. If Labor had lost the WA marginals (Tangney, Swan, Kalgoorlie) Snedden would have been PM. The blood runs cold even now at the thought…

  29. I thought this quote today in the New York Times was so apposite:-
    “Trust was shaken today. Credit depends on trust. If trust disappears, then credit disappears, and you have a systemic issue.”
    THOMAS MAYER, chief European economist at Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt, on yesterday’s market turmoil.
    The same applies to trust in John Howard. He has lost our trust.

  30. The Coalition will win in the West (despite this poll) and in QLD (thanks to the arrogant Mr. Beattie). They will lose two seats in Tasmania (the ‘Latham Two’). They will get a caning in NSW and Victoria. Net result? Coalition victory by three seats. So says Cerdic Conan.

  31. This “Market Meltdown” must be a bit of a worry for Costello at the moment.

    I hope that the brainwave idea to invest the “Future Fund” money through a US Broker doesn’t come back to haunt them.

    Could be a lot of very unhappy voters if that money is badly invested and evaporates into the ether.

    A lot of WA miners on AWA’s wouldn’t appreciate their hard earned investments reduced to next to nothing if it breaks out into a full blown recession.

  32. Adam, you write the last time the vote came down to WA was 1974, please correct me if I’m wrong but I thought the ALP holding its 4 marginals in 1990 was the last time WA played such a part.

  33. Scorpio, the trouble is the sub prime mortgages were mixed up in CDOs and sold all over the place as scrambled investments. People borrowed at 5%, for example, to invest in these for 15% returns. Some return.
    They forgot the rule: high return, high risk.
    It’s a bit like mad cow disease. You never know where the infection is going to crop up next. It’s gone beyond just the bad mortgage loans though. The whole market is spooked.
    It looks as though the long term bull market has now become a bear market. Can’t be certain.
    Cashed up vultures will short sell vulnerable stocks and buy them when desperate investors want to rescue some of their savings.
    It’s bad news for all those who sold properties and other assets and poured billions into super funds prior to July 1st. Some of those have already lost a slice of money.
    It’d be interesting to see where the Future Fund billions were invested and what they are worth today. It might be even more interesting to see what they are worth in two or three months, if the market goes south through loss of confidence or major liquidity problems.
    This could be a big one for Peter Costello.
    Perhaps Kevin Rudd might like to ask a question in the House.

  34. Richard,
    If the Future Fund was affected, it would be a scandal of Khemlani proportions surely. It would decimate any perception of the Colaition as good economic managers. Surely they can’t have invested the thing in anything too high risk. Could they?

  35. I read that the reserve bank injected $5 billion into the share market last night. Can anyone tell me where this money comes from?

    Do they just print more money or do they have a fund that they can play with?

    Maybe someone with more knowledge has the answer.

  36. bmwofoz, I don’t recall sweating on the WA seats on election night in 1990, but it is a while ago now… The reason I remember 1974 more clearly is that I was in WA at the time and I remember the night very well.

    (On checking) Yes I think you are right. In 1990 Labor won 78 seats to 69 (plus Ted Mack), so Labor would have needed to lose five more seats to have been defeated. In WA, Canning, Cowan, Stirling and Swan were all close. If Labor had lost all four, it would have been Labor 74, Coalition 74, plus Mack. That would have been very interesting.

  37. I have addressed Graeme’s highly pertinent point about Westpoll’s concurrent state poll with an update to my post, the thrust of which is that this poll is to be taken with a grain of salt.

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