As reported in various News Limited papers, a Galaxy poll conducted over the weekend shows Labor suffering a 2 per cent drop in the primary vote since the previous poll four weeks ago, and a slight narrowing of their two-party lead. Curiously, Galaxy’s figure of 10 per cent for the Greens is at least double what Newspoll has given them in the past four months. Also included are figures on Liberal leadership preference which indicate voters are least unlikely to vote Coalition if John Howard remains Prime Minister. The following table shows two-party and primary vote results from Galaxy’s national federal polls this year:
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
| July 30 | 54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
| July 2 | 55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
| June 4 | 53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
| May 14 | 57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
| April 23 | 58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
Mike Cusack said @ 3:31: “….We would never accept the crass incompetence and boorishness of our Ministers of the Crown in sportspersons who had been selected to represent us, yet Downer has sailed through 11 years as Foreign Minister relatively unscathed.
Remarkable!
I so agree, Mike. Does anyone share my frustration that a man with such little character and even less competence as Dolly Downer can achieve high office for so long while saying so little of any consequence?
The man is a buffoon and a windbag with a pumped up opinion of himself with his Oxford accent and his dandy, patrician air. He has never had, nor uttered, an original thought and you get the impression he couldn’t even dress himself without seeking the advice of his minders.
After his comical stint as Opposition Leader and his lazy efforts in government, why is he still in the exalted position of Foreign Minister? Why is he still in cabinet? Why is he still considered a possible successor to the rodent? He would be God’s gift to St. Kevin if he is the successor.
It seems young Alex modelled his career on one Chauncey Gardiner, but Peter Sellers was so much more compelling sans Dolly’s wind, whinge, whine and fishnets.
He keeps his position because behind his Bertie Wooster front he is a very smart politician and a ruthless right-wing ideologue. He is very close to the PM, who also feels endebted to him for letting him be leader again in 1994.
This Haneef story is fast becoming the Kevin Andrews story, that is a danger to Howard, not Rudd.
The Australian’s editorial is amazing. Have they ditched their support for the government? Kevin Andrews is certainly not flavour of the month.
It is not so much the print media but the radio that Howard is using – even Laws looking as though he was going to lean against Andrews suddenly remembered is mate Howard and leaned back the other way.
I think these issues, thought to be against Labor’s best interest electorally, are good indicators of how strong the anti government vote is. If the polls swing to the government on any or all of these issues then the anti government vote was and is soft. If not then the government is in heaps. I’m tipping the latter.
Looks like the bears have emerged from their dens again this morning and are playing havoc with the markets. Macquarie Bank is not doing at all well. Depending on how this plays out in the next week it may influence the Reserve Bank to hold off on interest rates. Frankly I doubt it. There’s more and more news coming in, the trade blowout for example and increased spending, which will force the RBA to act.
You’d be game to buy Macquarie Bank in the near future which may mean the bears will maul it even worse and make a fortune when they pick up the pieces when covering their short contracts.
The market is a skittish as a kitten on a hot plate and will probably remain so now. The advice from brokers at the weekend to sell and hold on to cash is looking wise.
Doesn’t do anything for John Howard’s image on “management” of the economy.
Howard’s election tactics are very obvious: he’s running not only against Kevin Rudd, but also every state and territory government, all of which happen to under Labor control. What’s next? The Federal Government takes over more hospitals, which happen to be in marginal Coalition seats?
And, of course there’s more use of the national security card/Muslim bashing to come, with the able assistance of Howard’s rightwing shock jock radio mates.
How on earth can Rudd win, with all this against him?
I’ll be very surprised if there isn’t some swing back to the Coalition in next week’s polls.
Evan – I think it’s important to remember that 98% of the country are far more interested in whether Souths make the semis (or whether Geelong can finally break through) than they are in anything that we all like to blather about.
The polls basically haven’t moved for 6 months. It’s like the punters are looking for a reason to vote against Howard (as they have since, I think, around 2001, but particularly so since WorkChoices), and they made a gut judgement about Rudd early in the year – that is, that “he’s good enough”. Among the 25% of voters who actually change they way they vote from one election to the next, most of them aren’t really paying attention, and won’t do till the last few days of the campaign.
So the government may well gain a point or two in the polls next week, or they may not. The differences between polls is so small as to mean nothing. It looks as though the government has gained 1-1.5% since March, but Labor’s primary vote hasn’t moved that much, maybe it’s dropped by a similar amount. At that rate, Howard will be back in front by Easter next year, but I’m not sure he has that long….
Evan Says:
August 1st, 2007 at 4:18 pm
“I’ll be very surprised if there isn’t some swing back to the Coalition in next week’s polls.”
If there is an interest rise next week,Howard will be in a lot of trouble,when this is added to the rising cost of peoples weekly budgets,food,fuel,etc.It may well have the effect of neutralizing any govt gains made by playing the terror card.
The Govt Gazette is also calling Andrews a buffoon,saying he stuffed up the introduction of WorkChoices and now his sloppy handling of Haneef,and should be replaced.This election still has a long way to go.has a long way to go.
This is going to be an election that will be talked about for years.
Can anybody explain to me how to quote somebody else’s comment in my comment? Thanks.
J-D highlight the text you wish to quote,right click with your mouse and choose copy.In the space where we put our comments,right click and choose paste.
Hugo, I’ve got to stop listening to Alan Jones and Ray Hadley(2GB very much the mouthpiece now of the Liberal Party).
If there is no marked improvement in the polls for the Coalition soon from the focus on terrorism/national security, Howard is stuffed!
The terrorism card is their last hope!
http://www.w3schools.com/tags/tag_blockquote.asp
I don’t agree with those who think that the Haneef affair will be a plus for the government, just because the anti-Muslim crowd have been foaming loud and hard on talkback. Those people are not going to vote for Labor anyway, so no significant number of votes have been lost.
With respect to the “me-tooism†we haven’t started the campaign proper yet, and all this stuff will be forgotten in the run up to the election. That’s when it counts, and that’s when Rudd will roll out the policies. Why do it now and give Howard time to fight it? Rudd knows how Howard works, and he’s playing a long game.
Rob
Agree with that. Those on the left criticising Rudd (sometimes fairly), should be a bit more patient.
That Guy, thanks for the very useful HTML tags link.
I think the electoral impact is changing.
There was a modest boost for the government on Haneef’s detention as it looked at least to be doing something. The release probably did not have much impact as most agreed with Howard’s ‘better safe than sorry’ line.
The row has really been within the establishment especially the legal profession and the media. But it is going on so long, and the government is managing it so badly, that eventually people may think that whatever the merits of the Haneef case, the government is losing its grip.
Further to the Haneef saga and the increasingly pushy attitude of the Executive to the Constitution, we have the Jack Thomas control order decision coming down tomorrow morning (and no doubt further non-position-taking from the Rudder). I have written a piece up here on the subject (from a legal perspective) – will we see the High Court start to rein in the Executive, or continue along the path it started down with the migration decisions it made earlier this decade?
I’m anticipating a status quo result next week on Newspoll. Haneef issue has become chatter amongst the engaged (lawyers, media, libertarians etc), but I believe most punters go for the better safe than sorry view of life.
The only place they’re feeling sorry at the moment is at the petrol bowser – prices in suburbs of Perth hit $1.32 today.
Northern suburbs of Perth is a long way away from Devonport, but I’ll be interested to see how the Hospital intervention plays out??
Is JWH going to spot visit every Coalition marginal and throw a bucket load of money at it and use it as a carrot (unlike Costello’s election grab bag which punters with or without JWH in the lodge come Xmas) to save some seats ? Very tacky, but probably a smart move tactically speaking.
It would be very transparent if he did it so blatantly as he has in Tassie with the Hospital revival- Interesting times ahead with this grab bag of goodies the Coalition has to toss about thanks to the x billion dollar surplus he and Costello have put away for these very rainy days. Smart man JWH.
I never understood why Costello is giving the punters ‘rewards’ for ‘sound economic management’ BEFORE the election. It would have been smarter to ‘promise’ them to the electorate conditional upon the Coalition getting voted in again. Will JWH make that error: I doubt it.
A bold and brilliant move today from Mr Howard in Tasmania – now I hope he goes the whole hog and simply abolishes the States, junking all those corrupt Labor regimes in the process. The move left them furious, Rudd confused, and his friends in the media like Jim Middleton practically soiling themselves. What fun!
Strop
The hospital intervention will be interesting, the states have offered to Abbott and Howard on previous occasions that the Federal govt take over full responsiblity for the health system but his has been refused or ignored. Similar with water, Beatie and Bracks asked for money to buy out Cubby and fund pipelines but this was refused until Howard did his uncosted water plan.
The other question with the hospital take over is will he put the staff there on Work Choices, Howard and Hockey have been extolling the virtues of it and now have a chance to implement it in the Tassy hospital they have just taken over. Or will they leave the union agreements in place? Do they realise that there are “union bosses” in the Tassie hospital, will they terminate them as private industry is doing.
I think all the noise will probably help Howard – all those timid ones scared of their shadow and no brain of their own, you will be surprised how many of them there are – Howards new happy WorkSlaves.
They should put out a collection of Downer’s little gems like there is for Keating. Keating was impressive Downer sickeningly childlike.
Steven Kaye, you alluded to a story brewing in the press about Rudd’s “darker side” earlier this week. Care to elaborate? You got me curious.
What’s the bet interest rates go up 0.50% next week, rather than 2 small rate rises. The Reserve Bank might anticipate a snap election and roll two rate rises into one.
As for today’s Tassie hospital news, it looks shifty. Nakedly opportunistic, cynical, insincere and spontaneous. The PM didn’t even know how much it would cost.
How will this go down in other marginal seats?
Neil
Be interesting to see if Abbott will allow abortions in the Tassie hospital or insist they not be carried out, he should have the power to do this seeing as how it will be direct federal funding. The catholic hospitals are allowed to refuse the service and Abbotts views on the matter are quite clear.
A-C, Steven knows nothing. He is referring to a rumour published in Crikey about a month ago that some SMH journalist was sitting on a hot story about Kevin Rudd that would ‘blow him out of the water’. (They definitely used the term ‘journalist’, so it can’t be Miranda Devine.) The story was being sat on until the election is announced, to maximise damage. Nice ethics, eh?
A few days later another rumour was published, this time allegedly from the partner of the journalist in question. They said they had seen the story, and it was of roughly equal weight to Burkegate/Reingate. And we all know how well those worked ‘blowing Kev out of the water’.
But Steven Kaye’s chief charm is his undentable optimism. Hours of fun for the kids, blogging is the winner here today.
Arbie,
The point I make is how many votes will the Tassie pork barrelling cost the government in other marginal seats that are also crying out for more money in their hospitals. Consider these: Parramatta, Solomon, Paterson, Dobell, Eden-Monaro, Hinkler.
Forget SA, that looks like a wipeout. The PM won’t waste his time there.
People will ask the eternal question – “what about us!”. Resentment and envy are powerful political repellants in an election year.
Neil
Howard has an electoral war chest of 10 billion, he can spend 100 million per seat across 100 seats, whether Costello will try to reign in this spending will be of interest.
Costello will let Howard spent the entire surplus if he wants to, because Pete mistakenly thinks he’ll be Prime Minister in 6-12 months time.
Newsflash for you Costello: the big boss will shaft you, and install Abbott or Turnball as his successor instead.
I get the impression Steven Kaye and the Liberal Party dirt unit has spent a good 9 months trying to dig up something to bury Rudd with, not with any success so far.
Great news coverage for Howard tonight full of working people cheering him… Where on earth was the union standing up for the hospital workers? People who undoubt will be shafted with IR Laws…
God the unions are hopeless in this country… pathetic with lame leaders and useless apartchiks thinking of themselves not the workers.. Even more in Tasmania the unions down their are just incredible … CFMEU on the one hand support Howard on forestry policy and the other say nothing about the industrial relations laws incredible…
Is Marky Marky really Mark Latham??
Marky Marky: I found that stuff from Tasmania today sickening.
How gullible and stupid are those idiots in Davenport. Howard is selling them a load of crap, but they all fall for it.
I guess we can cut Braddon off Labor’s list of hopeful seat gains.
You gotta hand it to the rodent, he’s a slippery customer, but a smart one too.
No unfortunately not… but loved his book though the best political book i have read … don’t agree with him on some of economic views but honesty and candor superb.. and hypocrisy of many of Labors’ members amazing… and the Media who trashed his book so true a bunch of tossers…
I liked Latham, and proudly voted for him too. The bloke was done in by his bitch of an ex-wife and some disgruntled former colleagues from Liverpool Council.
There ain’t much love in the Labor Party either for Kevin. A lot of them are holding their tongues right now because they think they’re going to win.
Devonport actually but who cares… Yep gullible and stupid no they all just want to be celebrities that the gist of it get on tv for fame.. but their again where are the groups telling these people about what the Howard Government is doing to them.. Where are the people who actually represent them..
About the seat i still Labor will win it may be difficult without Green preferences however and the party has itself to blame their.. nonetheless come election time i think the party will win it. One other thing why do i continuously see liberal party ministers on tv and very few of Labors shadow ministers other than Gillard and Rudd are they that hopeless?
Yes very smart.. trieing very hard to rattle the cage and cause rats in the ranks… he is trieing every little way to split the Labor party and all of it is not about running the country its about politics and winning .. absolutely pathetic vision and way to develop policy…
Most of Rudd’s shadow ministry is completely useless. Wayne Swan, Julia Gillard, Simon Crean, Robert McClelland – I rest my case.
Garrett, Tony Burke, Craig Emerson – perhaps the only vaguely talented ones out of the bunch. It’s a great pity they couldn’t get Bill Shorten into parliament early, he’d be a great addition to the team.
It’ll be a very presidential style ALP election campaign, just Rudd himself, and Peter Beattie too, who seems to have become the Labor attack dog in recent days.
Yes very smart.. trieing very hard to rattle the cage and cause rats in the ranks… he is trieing every little way to split the Labor party and all of it is not about running the country its about politics and winning .. absolutely pathetic vision and way to develop policy…
True, but it’s worked for the rodent before, so why change the strategy?
Mark Latham is an absolute joke of a person: after his disastrous campaign in 2004 he descended into personal bitterness and thus sought, through his publications, to do as much damage to the organisation (the ALP) which provided him with his livelihood as possible by attacking it. I have no sympathy for Latham, who would have made the worst PM in the Western World (although the Australian population is not as stupid to make such an idiotic collective decision), but I have no sympathy for the ALP either, whether through the damage the former has caused it or otherwise. They remain a collection on sniping, infighting hacks, without the credentials to lead Oceania’s leading nation.
Peter Costello said John Howard is an absolute joke of a person: after his disastrous campaign in 2007 he descended into personal bitterness and thus sought, through his publications, to do as much damage to the organisation (the Liberal Party) which provided him with his livelihood as possible by attacking it. I have no sympathy for Howard, who has made the worst PM in the Western World (although the Australian population is not as stupid to make such an idiotic collective decision), but I have no sympathy for the Liberal Party either, whether through the damage the former has caused it or otherwise. They remain a collection on sniping, infighting hacks, without the credentials to lead Oceania’s leading nation.
Nostradamus, Latham was a monster, but you know something? He was still smarter and more principled than Kevin Rudd, who is a power-hungry shell of a man.
Meanwhile, as marky mark pointed out, a beaming PM got some great coverage down in Tasmania today, surrounded by hordes of welcoming Devonport locals. Then there was Tony Abbott on the 7:30 Report, cheerfully batting away Kerry O’Brien’s bilious questions. A good day.
Nostradamus, Costello is a monster, but you know something? He is still smarter and more principled than John Howard, who is a power-hungry shell of a man.
Meanwhile, as marky mark pointed out, a sneaky,tricky,lying PM got some great coverage down in Tasmania today, surrounded by hordes of Devonport rent a crowd locals. Then there was Tony Abbott on the 7:30 Report, cheerfully lying away as always to Kerry O’Brien’s in depth questions. A good day for Mr Rudd.
By the way, the PM has finally discovered MySpace, having recently put up his own page. As of yesterday, he had 12,762 friends; Rudd only has 10,242.
I suspect given the chance Costello actually might be the only minister to have a care.
Steven Kaye, that’s not an official John Howard MySpace page, it’s a sendup or a satirical Howard MySpace page – read the comments.
There’s an official Liberal Party MySpace page, on which Howard has only 8 friends(last time I looked).
Will Howard take over every hospital in rural Australia? As virtually none of them are in marginal Coaltion electorates, I doubt it.
The wall to wall coverage of the Haneef teacup is perfect for the government.
Next Galaxy poll 53-47, but I wonder if it will be the first at that level?
It is more than likely the next newspoll will be around 53-47 and galaxy at 52-48 and as usual AC and Morgan will have Labor at 60-40…
I have a question to all the Rudd supporters…How can you honestly vote for a Party that doesnt intend to have a tax policy for the election???
What a palpable performance by Dillard on Lateline ohhhh dont get revenge Unions if we win the election just because we are destroying the one watchdog that has kept you in check for all these years what a joke!
I’d have to say the seat of Franklin is a possibility now that Harkins in a complete Union thug who in their right minds would want him as their local member i mean seriously, i think with Quick’s help the 7% margin could be breached…