As reported in various News Limited papers, a Galaxy poll conducted over the weekend shows Labor suffering a 2 per cent drop in the primary vote since the previous poll four weeks ago, and a slight narrowing of their two-party lead. Curiously, Galaxy’s figure of 10 per cent for the Greens is at least double what Newspoll has given them in the past four months. Also included are figures on Liberal leadership preference which indicate voters are least unlikely to vote Coalition if John Howard remains Prime Minister. The following table shows two-party and primary vote results from Galaxy’s national federal polls this year:
| TWO-PARTY | PRIMARY | ||||
| ALP | LNP | ALP | LNP | ||
| July 30 | 54 | 46 | 44 | 41 | |
| July 2 | 55 | 45 | 46 | 41 | |
| June 4 | 53 | 47 | 44 | 42 | |
| May 14 | 57 | 43 | 49 | 39 | |
| April 23 | 58 | 42 | 49 | 37 | |
Apparently the government’s polling shows the Haneef affair is playing well for them. I can’t say I’m too surprised, if talkback radio is any indication – fear of terrorism and Muslims is alive and well, and it works for Howard, at least shores up his support amongst Liberal voters in marginal seats.
Why did Kevin Andrews let Haneef leave the country, if he’s a suspicious character? Maybe they wanted to avoid a Hicks situation?
Harry Quick – no doubt he’ll get expelled from the ALP.
Rudd would be wise to disendorse Harkness(the union guy) and find a new candidate for Franklin, but the hard heads in the Labor Party probably think the seat is safe enough for them.
That’s the sad and sick thing as far as I’m concerned. If they’re really concerned about terrorists, they should be angry that the investigation and was so badly mishandled by the AFP, and tainted by government interference.
Wow. I guess this means the government is probably monitoring IM conversations. Haneef talking with a relative in India were spied on, UK not involved in it at all. I guess Echelon does work after all!
http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/boothmaps.shtml
Andrews has no concept of his role and its like watching a bureaucrat dissect his morning teacake -what a lightweight-
I’m not going to explain again why the Greens won’t pick up Senate seats even if they double their vote… Figure it our for yourselves 🙂
Dembo I assume Haneef’s computers were seized and studied carefully after the arrest… the chat programs I’ve been known to use keep a log of conversations, unless you carefully find the ‘disable log’ box to tick. Perhaps he is a sloppy terrorist supporter. His second cousins certainly made sloppy terrorists.
[Perhaps he is a sloppy terrorist supporter. His second cousins certainly made sloppy terrorists.]
If he did have knowledge of the planned attacks in the UK, why did the case against him fail? Why did we let him leave the country? Why wasn’t he deported to the U.K.
What Andrews released today jsut raises more questions.
I was very interested in some earlier blogs on the topic of Kevin Rein’s practice of running neutal on issues where John Boy is streets ahead (eg post by Patrick Bateman at 3:03 pm today).
I saw Tony “left ear” Abbott interviewed on the Insiders and had one of those epiphany moments when a politician articulates a point that up until that point has only been half formed my own head.
If Kevin rein continues to run dead on issues where John-boy is strong, he will be held to account by various sectors of the voting population. Tasmanian trees and Haneef charge sheet, the longer this list of issues grows, the more that minor party voters are going to re-consider their preferences. Basically, one day, Kevin Rein is going to have to make a decision, and if that day doesn’t happen before election day, then as voters we are all to blame. I hate to say it, but I’m beginning to understand who straps on the plastic in the Rein household!
Does Kevin Rudd have a tax policy?
No of course not.
Do i think that Kevin Rudd has a so very little leadership experience?
Obviously.
Does Kevin Rudd have the ticker to the Prime Minister of Australia and make tough decisions in the national interest?
Unlikely very unlikely.
Do i think Kevin Rudd should stop answering his own bull butter questions and face some real media scrutiny?
YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Dembo
Of course Echelon works it is run by the Defence Signals Directorate and it is an amazing piece of technology. The civil libertarians would go ape if they knew just how much information Echelon could pick up…
Rudd has not “run dead” on either issue. On trees, he supports the forest agreement between the Tasmanian Labor government, the timber industry and the forestry union. On Haneef, he supported the government’s actions. You may disagree with his positions but you can’t accuse him of not taking one.
What you guys really want is for Rudd to take “left” positions so Howard has wedge him and scuttle back into office. But he’s too smart for that, so nyah nyah nyah.
Adam.
Apologies. I was being a bit of a smartar** re local knowledge. I have seen your Eden-Monaro map and I am very interested in it.
Yes, I am related (distantly) to JJ Cusack. His was the first funeral I can remember going to. My father was a veteran and was very proud of JJ’s anti conscription stance during WW1.
Adam sez “I’m not going to explain again why the Greens won’t pick up Senate seats even if they double their vote”
Jeez mate that’s a bit harsh. To say that we can go to bed early and not agonise over the later upper house results especially after a few astringent reds celebrating that near miss in takes all the fun out of an election.
Leave us some of our hope maaaaaaaaaaaaaate.
Mike, do you live in Eden-Monaro? What is your impression of Nairn v Kelly so far?
that should have read:
“near miss in name of electorate takes all the fun out”
Jeez I definitely typed in greater than and less than around “name of electorate” – this blog has some sort of html removal thingy
This site uses regular html. To italicise something, type
<i>something</i>
Rudd’s doing ok at avoiding potholes, and frustrating some in the govt in the process.
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Hiding behind a fictitious address etc. – courageous and brave aren’t they?
If the Greens doubled there vote in Vic, NSW and then they would be over a quota in each of those states and therefore pick up seats.
Tom sez: “If the Greens doubled there vote in Vic, NSW and then they would be over a quota in each of those states and therefore pick up seats.”
yes but Adam always has a little trouble with numbers – especially later in the evening (if you gets my drift) so we try to humour him.
I was exaggerating slightly. I meant they could poll substantially better than in 2004 and still not win seats. If both Labor and the Coalition poll three quotas, there will 14% of the vote left, and the Greens could get all of it and still not win. Garrett got 10% in NSW in 1984 and didn’t get up.
Adam. No, I’m next door in Canberra. I do spend a lot of time in E.Monaro because we have a house at the coast in the family. Also many friends, colleagues and rello’s in E Monaro. I have not met Kelly, but have talked to some who have and they are universally impressed. Looks impressive, speaks impressively, thinks impressively as one lady put it.
I have met Nairn, he seemed like a nice enough bloke, a bit distracted seeming in conversation and uninvolved. I dont think he has a personal vote as such, but does have a recognition factor. The Govt has spent a s**tload of money in the electorate, most of it announced several times over. The big ticket item is the Defence Operations office out near Bungendore, a dormitory “village” about 25 K out of Qbn. This is a bit of a two edged sword for him, as he (and JWH) has made a big song and dance over it. When completed it will increase exponentially the traffic on a goat track Hwy out from Canberra and Qbn which is frequently the subject of bitter blame shifting between NSW and Fed Govts, much to the disgust of people in Canberra, the south coast, (including Gilmore and E Monaro electorates) and all the towns between. This traffic increase does not thrill any voters and may cause something of a backlash if given some additional publicity and the later the election the worse it will be as summer traffic wreaks its damage. Also Bungendore, once a small village is now a macmanshioned dormitory suburb of about 5k plus and many inhabitants dont like the change imposed on them nor the water problems the population increase brings. The obvious first intention of the Govt was to implant a couple of thousand conservatively voting servicemen and women in the electorate. Most of them will in fact probably live in Canberra for the educational, employment and cultural opportunities for their spouses and kids.
Rudds timber policies will have a huge effect in the southern end of the electorate around Bombala and down to Eden and back up along the coast.
The coastal area is remorselessly moving in the ALP’ favour as it becomes deaths waiting room for public servants from Canberra and increasingly the destination of tree/sea changers of an arty crafty bent.(see Quaama!).
I dont know whats happening in the new part of the electorate around Tumut, Batlow, Tumbarumba etc., although the timber industry is enormous in that area.
Whether Kelly wins or not, he seems a very good candidate and should be persevered with, perhaps in a better electorate if necessary.
Nairn on the other hand is a bit of a hack. If he loses, he will probably disappear from sight, mostly unlamented. If he wins it will be a drovers dog victory.
I have met Kelly a few times and I agree he is an impressive candidate (I am of course biased). If the Libs try to get to the right of him on security issues they will fall off the planet. I think Labor will poll better in the Tumut area now that it is in a seat where Labor has a chance of winning. At present I expect Kelly to win.
I expect Kelly to win. My very unscientific method is based on the fact that of about a dozen people who have told me that they will change their vote this election, all favour the ALP.
This does not of course take into account the new part of the electorate, nor the effect of builders, professionals etc moving into McMansions in the semi rural developments surrounding Queanbeyan. Who knows the voting intentions of people of such strange aesthetic tastes.
Looking at the map – what is it about Captain’s Flat and Major’s Creek that makes them so strong for Labor?
I dont know Majors Ck so well, but because of it’s history it is probably in the same boat as “the Flat”.
The Flat was a notable mining town with a strong union presence until into the sixties, and when the mine finally closed that ethos remained as a strong characteristic of the remnant population.There was a Workers Club in operation until only ten or so years ago. Subsequently it became a dormitory village for Cbr/Qbn and seemed to attract many blue collar tree changers, perhaps for it’s history. Certainly it was an area that was notable for cheap(ish) real estate long after other similar villages had gone up-market and had become expensive. (exorbitantly so in the case of some villages). There was also a fair amount of work there in remedial work on the mine workings which were for many years leaching poison and heavy metals into the headwaters of the Molonglo River. There is/was a sawmill at the town and extensive forestry in the district.
More recently it has attracted an arts/craft crowd in addition to the blue collar people and has not generally attracted the McMansion crowd to the same extent. The areas on the Qbn/ Flat road where more elaborate housing on acreage has evolved as big properties have been broken up would probably vote in Qbn in lieu of journeying on out to the Flat.
Hey, The Australian is pinching my lines now <pout>
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22168310-16741,00.html
I object to the use of bufoon to describe Mr Andrews. To me that word implies a degree of amusing incompetence. It is the correct word to use in a description of Downer, and perhaps Nelson.
The dour imbecility of Andrews requires a different adjective. Any suggestions?
All this is a strange reminder of the perverse nature of Australians. We would never accept the crass incompetence and boorishness of our Ministers of the Crown in sportspersons who had been selected to represent us, yet Downer has sailed through 11 years as Foreign Minister relatively unscathed.
Remarkable!
Amber Dekstris Says:
August 1st, 2007 at 3:12 am
Hey, The Australian is pinching my lines now
After failing on the introduction of Work Choices, Mr Andrews has reinforced our view that he is a political buffoon
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22168310-16741,00.html
Looks like someone wants a scape goat and Andrew’s fits the bill beautifully. He has two strikes (WorkChoices/Haneef) at least…is he out ?
Peter Garrett didn’t win in 84 on 10% because the ALP directed preferences to the Democrats – to Colin Mason, who was elected on a smaller percentage.
Andy of course the polls were always going to close towards the election.
Kevin Rudd was correct months ago when he said it was going to be extremely close. He knew that those polls at the time were absolutely not indicative of the final result.
The polls are now much closer to the final result which will be, let’s say, between 50-50 and 52.5 Labor and 47.5 Coalition.
It will be indeed very close and every electorate is precious, hence the ALP anger at Harry Quick.
What we may well find is the tail will flick upward or downwards at the very end, in the last twenty four hours. That is when the election is really decided.
Of course the Haneef affair was going to run OK for the Government, even with gross bungling. People are afraid, especially those in the backblocks going about their daily business. They don’t follow and agonise over every detail. All they see is Muslim doctors involved in a terror attack in the UK and a related Muslim doctor arrested right here. He must be a terrorist they think otherwise he wouldn’t have been arrested.
Nevertheless the Haneef affair will be long gone by election time. Although another may one be concocted or exaggerated.
John Howard is currently fretting over the very real possibility of an interest rate increase – making the “dream of home ownership” impossible for so many young people. That rate increase will have far more impact than the relatively abstract Haneef affair.
A rate increase would be a godsend for Labor no matter how John Howard will try to spin it to blame the states or say how great the economy is going and that’s why we had to have a rate increase. Bit like the recession we had to have.
John Howard’s promises at the last election will be demonstrated by Labor to be just another lie and a really serious lie at that, affecting very many so called “Howard’s battlers”.
Richard Jones, you metioned the ALP anger at Harry Quick, I agree but it will be a lot more than just anger. The ALP can be party of real haters and families can carry grudges over generations. Sometimes I wonder if it’s not a pre-requisite of joining the party.
I remember Paul Keating’s words as clearly as if it was yesterday, when he was contributing to the condolence motion for the death of Sir John Kerr:
“those who cross the Labor Party are marked by the crosses it leaves on them.”
Now Quick isn’t Kerr, and the circumstances are different, but if the ALP loses the election by the seat of Franklin, look out Harry!
1. You can’t read, I never advocated a wholesale move to the left, only that Rudd (a) does need to make at least a token effort to mollify the left and (b) does need to start taking a position (other than the Government’s position, Adam) on some issues.
2. If my analysis is misguided, why is Rudd gradually losing ground to the government over the last couple of months? Don’t you think some strong, principled policies and positions would help maintain brand differentiation and stop the votes leaking away?
3. On the Haneef issue and the new revelations, I love how one-dimensional a lot of the thinking is. The ALP could easily have taken a position that was founded on principle and was consistent whether or not Haneef was/is implicated in any terrorist activities.
4. A lot of the thinking on this blog is deeply cynical and depressing and one of the primary problems with the state of Australian politics. You people honestly and actively believe that a politician “can’t afford” to take a principled, independent line on important issues. How sad is that?
Yes, Patrick, you’re right to despair at the cynicism which runs through politics – it would be nice if politics was purely a contest between ideas. However, don’t be fooled that there was ever some sort of “golden age” of political integrity – politicians have always been cynical bastards, despite the often rosey-eyed view of leaders past. You cab be sure that they weighed their actions for the political impact on their opponents.
Fact is, that is how politics works. We are talking about the battle for power, after all, so it’s inevitable that a fair dollop of cynicism and self-interest permeates the process. It’s not pretty, but that’s the system we have to deal with, regardless of one’s political allegiances. To bemoan it is to bemoan the rain – it might make you feel better, but it’s not going to change anything.
However, it’s good that you still care enough about this sort of stuff – I’m pleased that you haven’t become a bitter and cynical fixer like me.
My uncle, who resides in Eden Monaro, has always voted Liberal, but this time, he’s going to vote Labor, mainly because he likes Kevin Rudd.
Thoughts on Harry Quick: obviously being very petulant, because he wanted his mate endorsed as candidate. Going out and campaigning with the Liberal candidate – Labor supporters in that seat wouldn’t be too happy, they’ll see it as a mark of betrayal. I doubt it’d force too many people to magically vote Liberal. Loathsome as he is, Kevin Harkins probably doesn’t have too much to worry about, but I wouldn’t rule out Rudd getting nervous and dumping the bloke.
Howard’s Youtube Devonport Hospital announcement today: obviously designed to hold on to Braddon. I wonder how many people, other than journos, are desperate enough to watch that one? 10 maybe at most?
re “me-tooism”
Ross Gittens has an interesting article in todays SMH on one of the few policy differentiations between ALP & Coalition, after leading in with a comment on Rudd’s “me-tooism”:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/opinion/fewer-eggs-in-labors-basket/2007/07/31/1185647900795.html
The broader implication of course is that Rudd & the ALP are fighting the election on a narrow base (as opposed to Beazley’s small target), which has further implications as pressure is brought to bear on those policies being campaigned on. WorkChoices does appear to be the solid winner, but with climate change I wouldn’t be surprised by a Howard rabbit-out-of-the-hat on climate change post-APEC (following a meeting of the Asia Pacific Partnership [AP6] at APEC perhaps?). This begins a slide to an election battle on who to trust to keep you safe (across the gamut of ‘security’ issues), and that favours incumbency – Howard.
I agree with Patrick in respect of the need to begin to take principled stands – as much as to stake out real territory as to re-educate the public after 11 years of culture wars, further neo-liberal economic reform, and rampant individualism.
As to Adam’s comment regarding the Green’s doubling their vote and not winning, the salient point is that scenario is always a reality – nothing is certain until you poll 14.3%. This election poses real problems for Greens because of the (likely) high ALP vote – meaning either the Green are fighting it out for the 6th spot with the ALP or the ALP over-quota will be too little (and with a limited flow from conservative parties, including the Democrats who will do a deal with FFP again). And then there is the PHON scenario, where the Greens are placed last on Group Voting Tickets and locked out…
If the recent N.S.W state election results were replicated in a Federal election, the ALP would gain from the Coalition Lindsay, Eden Monaro, Patterson and Dobell, and retain Parramatta.
Interesting Newspoll yesterday showing Alan Carpenter and his state Labor government in WA well ahead of the Libs.
However, as we’re so often told, people will vote for Howard federally, but support a Labor state government.
And, John Watkins easily holds the state seat of Ryde for the ALP, which covers a lot of Bennelong.
Patrick, I think you’re missing an important point. Sure, Rudd can take principled stands on stuff like Haneef. The problem is that in doing so, he is giving oxygen to the government’s agenda. Rudd does not want to campaign on this stuff, he wants to campaign on issues where he judges that he can swing votes his way. This is not cynicism, it’s political strategy. You may feel that his arguing about the Haneef case will swing votes his way, but I doubt that he agrees with you.
With respect to the “me-tooism” we haven’t started the campaign proper yet, and all this stuff will be forgotten in the run up to the election. That’s when it counts, and that’s when Rudd will roll out the policies. Why do it now and give Howard time to fight it? Rudd knows how Howard works, and he’s playing a long game.
wrt Haneef I think Rudd could be getting a bit more mileage out of it. It seems pretty obvious that the govt esp Andrews has screwed up big time. Rudd should point out that if Haneef is a terrorist, why was he allowed to go home? If he’s not, why was his visa withheld etc? Howard says it’s better to be safe than sorry. That, sadly sums up this odious little man’s politics completely. Unfortunately, it really resonates with a segment of our society. Ben Franklin said “Any society that would give up a little liberty to gain a little security will deserve neither and lose both.”
Sigh!
Rudd has differences on climate change, Workchoices and Iraq. Labor is perceived as the best party for education and health. Rudd is playing it smart and safe by refusing to engage on issues where the govt is strong. As to Haneef, even Andrew Bolt thinks the govt hasn’t done a good job:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22168347-5000117,00.html
On the other hand, Denis Shanahan should just go and join the Liberal party. We know you want to, Denis:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22169376-5013404,00.html
What is interesting is how the major issues of the campaign – economy, IR, climate have disappeared in favour of emblematic ones. Terrorism vs civil liberties beat-up; ALP rehashing Latham style critique of junk-food ads. (I say ‘beat-up’ because truly this is a storm in a teacup: ludicrously botched car attacks on the other side of the world, and keystone law enforcement over the left-behind SIM card of a doctor in Queensland who the UK police aren’t interested in).
Anyway, the fascination with emblematic issues helps the drift back to the government.
An interest rate rise will surely snap the media and political class back to the more compelling issues.
Good news for Labor in South Australia. Despite a lot of bad publicity for the Rann Government recently, a poll in The Advertiser today has 2PP support for that government at 61 cent – up 5 per cent since the 2006 election. The Rudd flood is surely a major factor in this remarkable result. Translated to the federal scene, these figures would not only see Labor winning Kingston, Wakefield, Makin, Boothby and Sturt but also Mayo and Grey. The Liberals would hold one seat in SA – Barker.
Patrick, there are more votes for the ALP towards the right than the principled left. I think Rudd’s made an assessment that there are more soft Liberal voters are up for grabs than so-called principled Green/Labor voters thinking about voting for Howard. Politics is about perception, but it’s also about numbers!
I think you miss the point of those crrrrazy civil libertarians – it’s not the severity of the alleged acts, it’s the arbitrary and opaque exercise of unchecked executive power that is a concern.
I accept that, although I would argue quite strongly that progressive social policy appeals equally to small-l liberal Coalition voters (of whom there are actually many) and traditional left wingers.
There’s a fundamental disconnect in much of the analysis I read where the obvious ideological link between free-market conservative ideas and individual freedoms is ignored. At its extreme this combination is libertarianism, but I believe that many people would happily accept a “free market, free people” platform. But this is one of the areas that Labor is too chickensh*t to tread in for fear of the wedge bogeyman…
Anyway back to Haneef: what the heck would be wrong with Labor saying “yes we need these laws, but we clearly need far better judicial and parliamentary oversight of such matters, and this *&^# up just highlights that”, for instance? Many people on the left/progressive/civil libertarian sides would be happy just to see that increased powers are being matched by increased oversight, and it rises above the irrelevant question of Haneef’s guilt or innocence. Principled, practical, sane, likely to resonate. Back it up with an actual policy, and you’re there. It’s not so hard.
Every second of air time and inch of print devoted to Haneef is a gain for Howard. All the punters see of it is “Howard tough on MGB*”. The whole argument about the rights and wrongs of Haneef’s treatment, while important of itself, is an argument within the elite (that’s us). Politically, Rudd wants this issue gone, and focus returned to WorkChoices and other issues he is on the right side of. For Rudd to buy into this argument is just playing Howard’s game. Sorry, highly-principled lefties and Liberal gutter-feeders, but Rudd is too smart for that.
*MGB: Muslim guy with beard
Yep, I accept that reasoning and I sincerely hope that this is all we have here. But there have been enough little incidents now that it’s natural that some progressives are starting to worry about just what we might be voting for with KR…
So now Howard wants to take control of one hospital. This is Mr States Righter at work. The states should offer him the running of the health system. He would run a mile. Another ploy.
I wonder why a terrorist sympathiser, assistant, admirer, call him what you will would ring Scotland yard a number of times? Andrews didn’t mention that did he? Laurie Oakes has Andrews pegged right.
There ain’t no votes in sticking up for Mohammed Haneef. The progressives/Lefties calling for Rudd to make some sort of stand on this are already Labor voters/Howard haters. Despite the protestations of Phillip Adams, it’d be electoral suicide for Kev to suddenly start defending the rights of a suspected Muslim terrorist. I wish the whole thing would go away, and if interest rates go up next week, as predicted, Howard won’t be looking quite so smug and cocky.