The Adelaide Advertiser has published a poll of federal voting intention in the marginal seats of Kingston and Wakefield, showing Labor with respective leads of 57-43 and 58-42. A similar poll published in January had Labor’s lead in Kingston at 56-44. Labor lost both Kingston and Wakefield at the 2004 election: Kingston by 119 votes following an unfavourable redistribution and a small swing against sitting member David Cox, and Wakefield by 0.7 per cent despite a redistribution that turned a safe Liberal rural seat into a semi-urban seat with a notional Labor margin of 1.5 per cent. The Advertiser’s article is very light on details, such as sample sizes and primary votes. Perhaps some community-spirited South Australian reader might care to send a scan of a table, if there is one.
Peter, the 93 election saw Hewson presenting a 900 page suicide note. If ever there was an election for the taking ’93 was it. How was it determined that the swing to Labor in ’93 was due to any Kennett factor? Is that your opinion or is there some measurement of this? Could you please supply me with the data that shows the Cain / Kirner problems were the cause of Labor’s vote diminishing in Victoria in 1990 rather than the fact that we were just coming out of the 17% interest rate hike. You have to admit Peter in both those cases a very good case can be made that there were other very potent factors involved federally.
Can you tell me why you presume Goss lost due to Keating? Does anyone out know if this was so or not?
Goss lost because of some koalas I believe.
Bjelke-Petersen bulldozed half the state and got re-elected until he was senile, while Goss upset some koalas and got chucked out.
For those examples you say we can find Peter how do we explain the opposite effect? The election of the Wran government was at a time when federal Labor was poison. In November ’75 the Whitlam government was dismissed. In May ’76 Wran was elected in NSW. In ’77 Fraser won easily again.
There’s a good case for the big swing in Victoria in 1990 being down to the beleaguered Cain government. No other state swung against Labor so savagely at that election. There were high interest rates in the rest of the country, and it didn’t stop Queensland swinging to Labor.
But putting the 1993 pro-ALP swing down to Kennett is less convincing. More likely, with Cain/Kirner now gone, it was simply a correction of the 1990 result.
Koalas?
At last a political reporter who has Howard pegged correctly.
http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/phantom-of-the
operation/2007/07/28/1185339324713.html
Koalas = Greens/”treehuggers”
“This tree is your tree/ this tree is my tree/ this tree was made for you and me”
(repeat until you chunder)
Once again I believe you have identified the crucial reasons for the Goss defeat, brilliant analysis Adam.
NOTE: This was actually written by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who needs to wake up to himself – PB.
Attention William: I did not write this blog piece–
STROP Says:
July 28th, 2007 at 9:29 pm
Adam,
As brilliant as your analysis is on this one I have to disagree, Haneef is still a neutral or slightly positive for the Feds.
I couldnt have written it because at 9.30 on Saturday night I was half way smashed at the Reggie (Regatta Hotel). Can people rip off other people’s id in here ? ….ewww.
Apart from that, I dont agree with it. I think it is a disaster for the Feds and Rudd is playing it smart by saying nothing negative about a ‘security’ issue as Opposition leader- For one thing it is pissing off Andrew’s et all enough to play the man not the ball and Howard looks lame, very lame.
STROP Says:
July 29th, 2007 at 7:18 am
Once again I believe you have identified the crucial reasons for the Goss defeat, brilliant analysis Adam.
I didnt write that either William ^^^^. What the hell is going on here ? Someone trying to be funny ?
I have emailed William and wont blog again until this crap is sorted out. Sheeshkas.
I have emailed William too and demand you stop your attempt at gazumping whether you are smashed or not
NOTE: This was actually written by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who needs to wake up to himself – PB.
Just before I bail, Gary I NEVER said that a Government would be overthrown or keep incumbency at a State or Federal level because of what was happening at the State or Federal level- that is putting words into my mouth and a very extreme interpretation of what I was arguing.
What I did say is that some (who knows how many) will react to the amalgamations and their perception of the State parties at a Federal level in specific instances- I didnt claim it would cost Labor Govt at all. Be fair now.
STROP Says:
July 29th, 2007 at 7:44 am
I have emailed William too and demand you stop your attempt at gazumping whether you are smashed or not
Oi you. If you are going to steal my id at least have to courage to identify yourself and explain why you are being so stupid. But u wont will you.
One final final comment,Gary I believe Kevin Rudd has transformed the political paradigm to such a degree that it is now impossible for State or other issues to prevent a probable 55-45 win when the election is called in November.
NOTE: This was actually written by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who needs to wake up to himself – PB.
Grow up id stealer. You must be really really bored.
Note the times on those 3 entries above william. You cant post 3 entries inside 1 minute. Nostradamus or Steven Kaye or one their ilk must be doing this b.s. Fine, Ill sit it out.
vvery mature approach id stealer.
Im not going to be part of ruining this blog site by responding to you mr id stealer and having the thing filled with fake STROP entries. You are a dickhead, whoever you are. I will change ids if necessary. Caio.
I think your right, we better get our two personalities under control before it is too late …. where is my medication.
NOTE: This was actually written by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who needs to wake up to himself – PB.
Is a new AC Nielsen poll coming out tomorrow?
I wonder how the Haneef debacle will impact on the polls, if at all?
Andrews, Keelty, the aptly named Damien Bug: all should resign!
Evan, There should be a Galaxy tomorrow. The next AC Nielsen should be in 2 weeks.
What the H is going on with STROP? I think there will be a Galaxy tomorrow but am not sure. Should be interesting to see if it agrees with the latest Morgan phone poll.
Back on the topic of Kingston and Wakefield and Advertsier Opinion polls; based on previous Advertiser polls I would expect sample sizes of approximately 500, so make of that what you will. However I will say that their polling at the 2006 State Election wasn’t too shabby. They predicted a smaller than average swing to the ALP in Norwood and a line-ball result in Unley, which was the eventuality.
Also its worth noting that areas within state seats in Boothby and Kingston had some of the highest swings to the ALP in the 2006 state election. Im expecting the Libs to get wiped out in Kingston. Boothby is also a very strong possibility in my opinion, but the seat that will be the most interesting I think is Makin, which has a moneybags Lib candidate and I predict may end up being a closer result than even Boothby.
As i did not get to read the whole poll can anyone tell me what the sample sizes where for both electorates
I’ve gone off the ‘Tiser recently Bill but in the past they have been approx 500. I’ll try and grab the paper off my mother before she bins it !
It had my vote at 5% down from 6% a few months ago. I would be expecting a lot more than that especially when i go public on a few issues
Given that the Chief of Galaxy, David Briggs, expressed the view last week that the ALP vote has been overestimated by about 2% in recent polls I would be very much surprised if Galaxy is anywhere near the latest Morgan phone poll.
[Given that the Chief of Galaxy, David Briggs, expressed the view last week that the ALP vote has been overestimated by about 2% in recent polls I would be very much surprised if Galaxy is anywhere near the latest Morgan phone poll.]
Does that mean he subtracts 2% from the ALP 2 pp vote for his polls?
Some have occasionally mentioned Mayo as a possible upset for Labor, well their candidate Mary Brewerton is a dud! I tryed speeking with her about some rather basic political issue and got a rather blank stare. Labor has been more active this time than in the past (holding a rally with Robert McClelland etc.) but their primary vote last time was just 16.49% and history shows that those apposed to Downer are far more likely to vote for another party or independent rather than Labor (in the last five elections Dems. have come seconde twice and an independent second once). At the last election Greens polled 7.6% however i believe this was probably kept artificially low by the presence of Independent Brian Deegan (15.15% primary, 38.19% 2CP) and their vote would otherwise be around 13% or more.
Downer could go because:
*of his disasterous foreign policy (Iraq, heavy handedness with the Pacific, etc.)
* of his repugnant personality (and responding to critisism by calling his attackers names, like pinkos etc. and thinking this some how makes their arguaments less valid) although perhaps cross-dressing makes him more human.
* outer metropolitan larger swing.
However people like being represented by a household name and Labor’s support is never anything amazing, essentually the only way to oust that bugger is to have a strong indepedent candidate and i don’t know of any running yet.
STROP’s ID is being abused by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who will be banned if he does it again. Oh, the fun I’ve had investigating this and editing all his comments. Such a valuable way to spend my time.
Whats the story with Makin Matthew. On paper it looks very winnable for Labor ?
William Bowe Says:
July 29th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
STROP’s ID is being abused by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who will be banned if he does it again. Oh, the fun I’ve had investigating this and editing all his comments. Such a valuable way to spend my time.
Im regret that you had to spend time on that B.S William. Thank You for your efforts. I will change ids anyway so St John cant do it again and waste your time and valuable blog space.
Again, Im sorry about this.
STROP.
While personally I have found the whole Strops 1&2 thread quite amusing (in a Goons Show kind of way), I think William is correct in taking a hard line on it. This sort of thing can quickly get out of hand and ruin a site like this. I’m sure we all don’t need reminding about what happened at OzPolitics.
Ollie: I expect Labor will win Makin, but I just suspect that it will be a smaller swing to the ALP compared to say a Kingston or Hindmarsh. The Liberal candidate in Makin is loaded and has been carpet bombing the electorate with propaganda. So I think it will be close, but the ALP should get over the line.
“Bjelke-Petersen bulldozed half the state and got re-elected until he was senile, while Goss upset some koalas and got chucked out.”
Right – green issues were *so* hot in Queensland in 1995 that the decision to build a road in SEQ resulted in a 7% swing (2PP) against the government. You don’t think maybe, just maybe, there were a few other reason reasons Queenslanders decided to chuck Goss after only 6 years?
(And FWIW I don’t think Keating had much to do with it)
d
Mea Culpa,
My apologies, but reviewing the comments I think there may have been 3 STROP’s, who would have thought?
Whimsy on my part, breach of etiquette etc William I promise to behave in future. The strenuous efforts at agreement on all things have been getting me down of late.
Thanks Matthew. By the way, do you know the thrust of the ‘carpet bombing propaganda’- economic management-the ‘evil unions’ ?
[The strenuous efforts at agreement on all things have been getting me down of late.]
This is no excuse for acting like a child.
He’s apologised, let’s move on.
There’s no way the ALP will win Mayo.
Their most likely gains in SA: Kingston, Wakefield, Makin, and possibly either Boothby or Sturt.
William does a great job as Moderator!
I enjoy this site very much! It’s by far the best Aussie political discussion board on the internet.
And Strop: I enjoy reading all your comments!
P.S: Kevin Andrews makes me so angry! Yes, my anti-Howard bias is coming out again, a bit hard to suppress it!
Don’t get me wrong on this Edward because I enjoy sparring with you but wouldn’t it be easier just to go to another blog if this blog frustrates you? It frustrates me at times too but I find that is half the fun. First and last word on this by me.
# William Bowe Says:
July 29th, 2007 at 2:37 pm
STROP’s ID is being abused by the commenter normally known as Edward St John, who will be banned if he does it again. Oh, the fun I’ve had investigating this and editing all his comments. Such a valuable way to spend my time.
Why would Edward do this sort of sh**. This spoils it not only for STROP but the rest of us.
Evan Says: I enjoy this site very much! It’s by far the best Aussie political discussion board on the internet.
And Strop: I enjoy reading all your comments!
Same here
Mayo will never go the ALP ( unless it can put up a star candidate) this seat will one day go to a Green or independent.
With the possibility of a landslide will the ALP solve the woes that are reasons for Howard’s poor showing
No AWAs, Workchoices removed ?
Global warming ?
Troops out of Iraq?
Social equality?
proper employment?
keeping the one off payments to pensioners and parents with children?
Low interest rates ?
Renewable energy not nuclear?
Housing ?
etc etc.
With a new government we expect and should expect much. Will all our wishes come true or will we hear the normal excuses like ‘ the previous government has left us in a bad state ‘ ‘things are worse than we thought ‘ ‘ we need to tie the purse strings’ etc etc . I am sure that once the election is over the working class ( and yes there is such a class ) will suffer whoever wins. If people would just take a stroll in electorates like Kingston and had also done so many years back would see that poor areas are growing at a faster rate every year. Things are no better for low income people and sadly the low income group is growing to the point that many people with jobs are seeking help from the Salvos and St Vincent de Paul’s etc. Lets hope if Rudd wins this group will not have to struglle to make ends meet.
Paradoxically Downer’s best safeguard in Mayo is a big swing to Labor, because that will prevent an independent stealing the seat by coming second and piggy-backing on Labor preferences. I don’t believe the Greens can win Mayo, regardless of the Labor vote, for reason I have set out before: as a party of the far left they can’t sneak through the centre as the Democrats did when they nearly won in 1990 and 1998. Only a well-known and moderate independent can beat Downer.
(Incidentally if Janine Haines had contested Mayo instead of Kingston in 1990 I’m sure she would have won, and Lord Downer’s career would have come to an abrupt end. It’s much harder to detach voters from the major parties in a marginal seat, because they know their party can win the seat and so are reluctant to vote tactically for a minor party. In Mayo she would have scooped up all the Labor vote.)
That’s why Abbott will be in real danger if Peter Macdonald runs in Warringah. The safer a seat is in 2-party terms, the bigger the risk of losing it to an independent. Lord Nelson of Bradfield and the Witch of Mackellar would also be at risk if strong independents emerged, as will Hawke the Lesser if Cadman runs in Mitchell as was suggested here the other night.