Morgan: 59-41

Roy Morgan’s first poll in two weeks is from a face-to-face survey of 1690 voters conducted over the past two weekends. It shows a slight widening of Labor’s two-party lead to 59-41, with the Coalition primary vote down from 37 per cent to 36 per cent and Labor’s up from 48 per cent to 50.5 per cent.

UPDATE: The outstanding Possum’s Pollytics, whose absence from this site’s blogroll is keenly felt (to be corrected when I overhaul the site in about a month or so), produces some interesting data on variations between Newspoll and Morgan results.

UPDATE 2: And Andrew Leigh has an easy-to-follow run-through of the Portlandbet electorate odds that have everybody talking.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

268 comments on “Morgan: 59-41”

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  1. 1. Policy on Blacks has failed Howard
    2. Nelson got caught telling the truth
    3. APEC will be a failure – and people will be upset at that!
    4. NSW Libs (Howard’s home state) are seen as red necks
    5. Interest rates may yet increase

    Janette – call the removalist!

  2. Assuming I am the Adam of whom Peter is enquiring, no I do not have a blog and I am not currently minded to get one. The internet takes up far too much of my time as it is. My election website is entirely non-party and quite separate from my polical views and activities.

    Amber writes “don’t forget there is some nasty business ahead eg. Qld MPs, Minchin…” Minchin? What is this a reference to?

  3. We keep hearing that the Libs will turn it around but that has been happening since Dec and still there has been nothing to suggest things will change. Attacks on Rudd (nothing stuck and was seen as playing the man – everyone deserves a fair go and the Libs wasted no time in getting stuck into him but it backfired), the Budget bounce with giveaways (hasn’t happened yet but we will take it coz we deserve it and still toss you out), people have seen the country prosper but haven’t participated in it (Howards battlers).

    The latest terrorist attacks in the UK and Scotland have again focused the issue that they occurred in response to the illegal incursion into Iraq. Then Brendan Nelson stuffs it up.

    The reason Howard will struggle is he is now TOO OLD plus (and this is the bigger one) – Rudd isn’t Latham. Said before and will say it again, people have misread the 2004 result – it was not an endorsement of Howard but a rejection of Latham.

    The swing to ALP will be 6-8% on 2PP basis at the election and an interest rate rise will only further destroy the remaining economic credibility the government has.

  4. “illegal incursion into Iraq”

    Please, for the sake of everyone, just admit that the left would call it illegal and “imperialist” even if it had gotten UN sanction.

  5. I’d assume the reference to Michin relates to his (taped) comments to the HR Nicholls society, suggesting that the Libs would toughen up Workchoices down the track. Interestingly, HR Nicholls described the centralisation of Government power inherent in Workchoices ‘Stalinist’. Then again, coming from HR Nicholls, anything short of a Hayekian utopia would probably be Stalinist.

    I expect we will see some rather nasty, ‘negative’ campaigning from Howard in the coming months, but surely the Libs need a better strategy than waiting for Rudd to drop the ball. Labor has shot itself in the foot before, but is giving the appearance of discipline and party unity these days.

    It will be fascinating to watch the backroom shenanigans should the Libs lose. Howard will surely go, and whilst Costello is the obvious next choice, one wonders if there will be a bit of public bloodletting before the leadership issue is resolved.

  6. Who else have they got? If they are badly beaten Turnbull will be gone. The Mad Monk? The Napoleon of Bradfield? Jolly Joe? All hopeless. Julie Bishop is the only other option. Are the Libs ready for a Thatcher moment?

    On another question (which I also asked in the Alice Springs by-election thread): does anyone have any local gossip about Solomon? It’s the only key marginal I have heard nothing at all about, apart from Chris Tarrant socking the Labor candidate.

  7. July 05, 2007 08:05am
    Article from: AAP
    MANY voters in north Queensland plan to desert the Howard government over its controversial workplace laws, a union-commissioned poll has found. The study of 1,200 voters in the government-held seats of Dawson, Leichhardt and Hinkler found nine per cent had vowed to change who they vote for at the upcoming federal election because of the laws. A further 16 per cent said they were considering changing their vote.

    Looks like a very big swing is on in QLD- which gives me cause to be seriously considering a Labor win possible, even probable in 2007. Therefore, my arguments for this claim are presented below.

  8. Arguments for a Labor win in 2007 cf 2004 are mostly reliant on attention to national issues such as (A) The ‘terrible’ Latham image of an L plate economist [Rudd is doing better on this issue-at present]; (B) the political climate when the horrible Bali bombings occurred and shifted many peoples focus (and rightly so) to National security [people will not vote for a change of Government in a state of War or image of imminent terrorist activity] with Mr Howard asking the electorate “Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and protect family living standards?”.
    For me, this is the key issue reflected in the polls- Howards credibility with the electorate is shot , yet the country remains economically sound)
    Contrast, in 2004, (C) the image of Howard as the fatherly protector of Australia against that almost openly violent, awful women’s vote losing image of the Latham-Howard meeting at a radio station where Latham assaulted Howard’s small hand in his massive paw and stood over him like a bully in a school-yard. [Rudd’s image is anything but that of a bully in a schoolyard, more the thinking nerd in the library].
    (D) In the course of the last election, Labor waited until mid way through the election campaign to launch important education and taxation policy and, worse, introduced and fumbled over selling the Tasmanian Forestry policy a week out from election day [Rudd is well ahead on presenting and promoting key policy]
    (F) Howard constantly out polled Latham as preferred Prime Minister (by an average of 11.5 percentage points according to Wikipeda). [Rudd is doing a lot better on that score-at least he is competitive] and
    (G) The Howard retirement issue and the ‘Costello’ factor. This time around it is going to be much more apparent (and concerning) to those in the Electorate who will be concerned about the reality that the PM we vote for at the Election is very unlikely to be the one we end up with if Howard wins this election.
    His often quoted line that he will lead the party and serve the Australian community for as long as he is invited to do so will not wash this time; people will want to know- Moreover, Peter Costello is about as popular with the general electorate as a potential PM as Keating was in 1996 (a consistent message of opinion polls for years). His ‘smug’ image is as unpopular as Keating’s Italian suits.
    What about Work Choices, Senator Santori and Co in QLD (misappropriation), the budget wins for income tax payers, the $ pay off of pensioners, the bucket loads of funding the Government will direct to marginal seats infrastructure and employment/business developments, the Coalitions broadband roll out, the ‘fairness’ amendments to Work Choices and further yet to be announced vote buying strategies which I suspect the electorate are ‘savvy’ to and can/will still get without having to put Johnny back in Kirribilli ? 2007 is looking a lot better. I have my taxi booked.

  9. IF THE MORGAN AND GALAXY POLLS ARE FOLLOWED UP WITH STRONG LABOR SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER 2 IN COMING WEEKS —
    Most of the 13 seats Adam Carr’s guide to the 2007 Australian federal election defines as very marginal seats will go to Labor –

    Kingston (0.1) Bonner (0.6) Wakefeild (0.7) Makin (0.9) Braddon (1.1) Parramatta (1.1) Hasluck (1.8) Stirling (2.0) Wentworth (2.6) Bass (2.6) Solomon (2.8) Moreton (2.8) Lindsay (2.9).

    Some of the 10 seats Adam defines as marginal seats will also go to Labor-
    Eden Monara (3.3) Bennalong (4.0) Dobell (4.8) Deakin (5.0) McMillan (5.0) Corangamite (5.3) Boothby (5.4) Page (5.5) Blair (5.7) Latrobe (5.7)

    And what Adam defines at fairly safe seats in QLD (5) are vulnerable-

    Herbert (6.1) Longman ( 6.6) Flynn (7.9) Petrie (7.9) Hinkler (8.8) Bowman (8.9).

    A net gain of 16 seats for Labor is on – very much so.

    Adams excellent site is here for the person who asked for it.

    http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/a/australia/guide3.shtml

  10. ““illegal incursion into Iraq”

    Please, for the sake of everyone, just admit that the left would call it illegal and “imperialist” even if it had gotten UN sanction.”

    But it was illegal, why are you trying to change history? When senior military commanders (e.g. UK) say it was illegal, and as the facts of the lies and deceits used to invade have been revealed, the invasion was entirely premised on illegalities. The way I see it the left are just calling it as it really is, whilst the right are trying to bury what is really a monumental stuff up.

    This is just one of Howard’s mistakes the electorate are factoring in, and it appears to be a cross in the Howard column.

  11. Thanks for your insightful contributions STROP on the recent opinion poll results. Remember folks if this 2PP support for Labor is reflected in Newspoll and ACNielsen surveys next week then the safe Coalition Queensland seats of Leichhardt and Ryan are also vulnerable. Leichhardt thanks to a retiring popular MP and Ryan due to poor image of incumbent MP and anger over construction of Goodna Bypass road.

  12. Adjusting for Morgan bias, the primaries are Coalition 41, Labor 45.5; and on two party preferred it is 48/52. Even 52% on 2pp does not guarantee Labor a majority, and, once the election is called, Krudd will be exposed as the fragile protoplasm he is. A 5th Howard Government nears. I can’t wait!

  13. Whatever way you want to ‘adjust’ it Nostradamus, even a Blue Veined Liberal will be quietly conceding things are NOT looking for good for JHW.

  14. “..let me ask the question another way. WHAT WILL TURN THIS AROUND FOR HOWARD?”

    Big fat cheques.

    Inflate their way out of trouble.

    Deal with the consequences if they get back.

    Allow their electors to donate their right hands to medical science the Monday after the election.

  15. Rembering election results are not uniform therefore if the ALP are really ahead 50-41 on election night there will be seats that the ALP would normally only dream about.

    I first called this Election on May 29th, and for a acout a month I though maybe I had jumped a little soon but if this Morgan poll is backed by Newspoll on Tuesday then consering we are nearly at the end of July.

    Seats I think the ALP will gain –

    Kingston (0.1) Bonner (0.6) Wakefeild (0.7) Makin (0.9) Braddon (1.1) Parramatta (1.1) Bass (2.6) Moreton (2.8) Lindsay (2.9) Eden Monara (3.3) Dobell (4.8) Page (5.5) Blair (5.7) Herbert (6.1) Longman ( 6.6) Flynn (7.9) Petrie (7.9) Hinkler (8.8) Bowman (8.9)

    Seats I’m not convinced the ALP will gain

    Hasluck (1.8) I think this seat is leaning toward the ALP, but with the strenght of the WA Economy this seat may stick with the Liberals

    Stirling (2.0) Same as Hasluck and while on paper looks more Liberal than Hasluck, I wouldn’t be surprised if the ALP won this seat but fell short in Hasluck

    Wentworth (2.6) Malcolm Turnbull should hold this seat, I will predict a swing to him regardless of the national result

    Solomon (2.8) As someone wrote we hear nothing about this seat expect Chris Tarrent punching the ALP candiate, this seat I see has very winnable for the ALP but in saying that I feel the Aboringial policy will be seen as a positive

    Bennalong (4.0) If John Howard wasn’t the local MP I would have this as an ALP gain, and while Howard might appear on the skids something tells me that he may just hang on

    Deakin (5.0) When the ALP win Elections they tent to do well in Melbourne’s Eastern suburbs, the local MP is well liked, Deakin is a seat which could give the ALP a 10+ swing or barely move

    McMillan (5.0) On paper winnable for the ALP, but I think this is one seat where it will come down to completing issues, are people more worried about Howard’s IR laws or Rudd’s 60% cut in emissions, my bet is a Liberal hold

    Corangamite (5.3) The most likey Victorian seat to change to the ALP

    Boothby (5.4) See a swing toward the ALP, but the Liberals should just hold

    Latrobe (5.7) Good local MP, will be a close contest this is the sort of seat that will make the different between a close election and a landslide, I’m tipping a very narrow win for the Liberals but Jason Wood wouldn’t want another interest rate rise.

  16. The only rabbit left for Howard, and this may say plenty about his problems, but the Stars have it that Leo’s have a better second half to 2007, both Howard and Costello are Leo’s.

  17. There is a case for making a small adjustment to Morgan Polls – the analysis by Possum Pollytics in a recent post attempts some quantification at least when measured against Newspoll.

    Even allowing for the Possum adjustment Nostradamus must be working with some form of mathematics not known to mere mortals who try to work with the evidence as it is rather than how they would like it to be to extract a 2PP of 48/52 from the current poll.

  18. Why do I think Howard will get a 5% bounce during the election campaign?

    I subscribe to the theory that the vast majority of Australians will not become fully engaged in the election until the … uh .. election. At that time the serious campaigning starts.

    Unfortunately I fear this will be the most bitter election we have ever seen in this country because the Libs (and probably Labor) are going to unleash the horror known as “swiftboating” – scandalous dirt ads that are merciless and slanderous of your opponent.

    I believe a television campaign IS worth 5% of the vote and the Liberals will run one during the election.

  19. ACNeilsen and Newspoll- if they go anywhere near 57-43 Im calling it if Howard sits on his hands through August and dosent visit the GG.

  20. Well, STROP says that Solomon is going Labor, while bmwofoz says it is unlikely.

    Reminds me of the Dire Straits song:

    “Two men say they are Jesus
    One of them must be wrong”

    😉

    For what it is worth, I don’t think the Aboriginal issue will play much one way or the other for Tollner. Unlike suburban Sydney/Melbourne/etc, the indigenous problems are well known in suburban Darwin/Palmerston (Tollner’s electorate) and attitudes are largely fixed, and there remains a lingering hostility to ‘southerners’ lecturing Territorians about how to run their affairs. (Don’t be fooled by the rejection of the statehood referendum a few years back, that was lost for the same reasons the republic referendum was lost–the proposed model was unacceptable, statehood is still desired by the substantial majority of Territorians.) The CLP governments of past played on the ‘southerners lecturing Territorians’ theme to great effect during the Hawke/Keating years. They also played the race card pretty strongly, but it has lost its edge over recent years.

    As to Tollner’s chances of re-election, the factors include;

    1) the current Martin Labor government has not stuffed things up, and the economy is doing fine, so there is no great fear of Labor anymore,

    2) there is clearly a strong and widespread move for change nationally,

    3) Tollner (like his senate counterpart, Nigel Scullion), while not despised, is not held in high esteem as a politician, and is seen as a bit of an ineffectual goose, albeit a friendly well-meaning one, and

    4) he sits in one of the most marginal seats in the country;

    all means it is a good possibility that Tollner will go.

    Probably the major factors in Tollner’s favour are:

    1) Palmerston, which has a large number of armed services residents from the nearby Robertson army barracks, who tend to vote conservative, and

    2) somewhat paradoxically, the good state of the NT economy.

    But I suspect these are not enough for him if there is a big national swing on.

    Should declare my bias. I vote Labor (2PP) about 9 times out of 10.

  21. Dembo: “Unfortunately I fear this will be the most bitter election we have ever seen in this country because the Libs (and probably Labor) are going to unleash the horror known as “swiftboating” – scandalous dirt ads that are merciless and slanderous of your opponent.

    I believe a television campaign IS worth 5% of the vote and the Liberals will run one during the election.”

    Dembo, I’m not quite following your logic here. You seem to be assuming that a television campaign by the Liberals will gain greater traction with voters than a television campaign by Labor.

    If both parties conduct scandalous dirt ads, why would Howard get a 5% bounce and not Rudd?

  22. Thanks Just Me for the Solomon summery, rereading my comments I’m not saying the Liberals will hold Solomon, but with limited knowlegde of the seat I was only making a guess as to how it may go, also from my understanding in the N.T sitting MPs tend to be hard to defeat.

  23. bmwofoz. You’re welcome. I agree that historically NT MPs tend to hang around, but politics in the NT is changing substantially (dare I say it, maturing), so history is perhaps a less reliable guide than in other parts of the country.

  24. For the benefit of anyone who continues to be convinced that including Morgan’s polls into the set of polling data will distort the planetary alignment of the solar system and possibly even reverse the spinning direction of the Milky Way, consider the following:

    The polling data from all pollsters vs polling data from Newspoll and AC Nielsen only, shows very little difference in the primary vote results,

    Feb – all pollsters – primary votes – Coalition 38 ALP 46.8
    Feb – News & ACN – primary votes – Coalition 38.3 ALP 46.3

    March – all pollsters – primary votes – Coalition 35.3 ALP 49.9
    March – News & ACN – primary votes – Coalition 36 ALP 49.5

    April – all pollsters – primary votes – Coalition 36 ALP 49.9
    April – News & ACN – primary votes – Coalition 36.3 ALP 49.3

    May – all pollsters – primary votes – Coalition 37.3 ALP 49.6
    May – News & ACN – primary votes – Coalition 37.6 ALP 49.2

    June – all pollsters – primary votes – Coalition 39 ALP 47.3
    June – News & ACN – primary votes – Coalition 39 ALP 47

    The differences are small and does not warrant ostracizing Morgan’s results from the polling data set. In fact, the more data the better.

  25. “Just Me” – you may be interested that not all military officers are conservtaive, in fact I estimate half would probably vote Labor and Nelson’s remarks have probably meant that figure may increase. It is the enlisted men who are more conservative, and really the more senior NCO’s are the only real rusted on Liberals left in the military. If most diggers have done their time in Iraq, and don’t want to go back, they will probably vote Labor.

  26. ….Labor’s big turn off in the military is the way they make returned service personnel feel when they return from a military operation Labor did not agree with. If there is a feeling that they will treat the current crop the way they treated Viet Nam vets then expect swings to Howard in Paterson (RAAF Williamtown), Brisbane (RAAF/Army), Townsville, Darwin, Wentworth (RAN Fleet Command), Macquarie (RAAF Richmond), Hughes (4 Bn, RAR) where not only the defence personnel live but the community is very loyal to them. The defence vote is Rudd’s for the taking. Combine this with the speculation about Michael Towke (Cook) and Alex Hawke (Mitchell) and their military ‘record’ and the Libs are starting to look more like Dad’s Army.

  27. Nick, I agree that many are not conservative, but historically the services have tended to vote that way.

    I also agree that this is changing as political allegiances generally become more fluid. For example, in the last NT election Palmerston threw out the long time CLP member, who also happened to be the Chief Minister, Dennis Burke, and elected a young, first time Labor candidate (who happened to have the same surname).

    And I also agree that many service people, particularly those who did service in Iraq, may be inclined to vote against this government. One thing that pisses service people off seriously is being used for political purposes.

  28. ….and don’t forget Burke was the former CO of 2 CAV, the Darwin Based Armed Regiment. Legend has it that he went on Parade the day before he got elected and said to his troops that “if you want to get rid of me, I suggest you vote for me”. His popularity as a Commander was evident the next day when he got a massive vote in the garrison booths! I think soldiers then looked forward to voting him out – but cautiously waited until they knew he would not return to the Army if he found himself unemployed.

  29. Jellybean, I echo your question to Dembo. Why should an TV ad campaign, conducted by both sides, favour one side only (by 5% no less)particularly when Labor, on many issues is running with public opinion and has it’s own scare campaign to run?

  30. Gary,

    Perhaps I am more sensitive than you but in the past (particularly in 2004) I have always thought that the Coalition’s advertising has been more effective in scaring than that of the ALP.

  31. “you may be interested that not all military officers are conservtaive”

    Military people run for all parties in roughly equal numbers to their general votes I reckon. The Dems (and probably the Greens) have quite a few military peope over the years, as I would wager the Nats, ON and FF…

    You’d be surprised (or maybe not) at how civic minded a lot of army people can be … really committed to helping people (whatever that may mean with their ideology)

    —-
    As for campaigns. I think most people would agree Labor is running at or near the ceiling of its vote. 57% 2PP seems to be the average of the polls at the moment. Remember, 95% of Australians simply do not follow politics like the people do on this site … just because we have made up our minds does not mean they have.

    Labor has already been running campaigns, so they have their 5%. The Libs are yet to run a television campaign and I think that will be worth 5%.

  32. “The Libs are yet to run a television campaign and I think that will be worth 5%” – Dembo

    Are you the only person in the land that has not heard of the huge amounts of taxpayer funded “government” advertising???

    I think that whatever the libs do now means little – the people will interpret it is another cynical howard ploy – Tampa, Children overboard, Interest rates, indigenous “emergency”….

    Tom

  33. Dembo said “Remember, 95% of Australians simply do not follow politics like the people do on this site … just because we have made up our minds does not mean they have.”

    Yes but the polls are going out to the people, and we have seen I believe an unprecedented sustained attack on Rudd and the ALP since he became leader. The polls have really not moved much. Perhaps you can argue that people have already made up their minds. Perhaps they are waiting for the real campaign to start. Watch the polls after the election date announcement.

    My feel is that the TPP vote is pretty solid and we will see 53/47 to the ALP (barring stuffups).

  34. “don’t forget Burke was the former CO of 2 CAV, the Darwin Based Armed Regiment” Burke and Shane Stone used to be my minister at one stage or other – never very fond of either. Burke’s wife Mayor of Plamerston was more popular and better performed than he.

    David Tollner is a bit of a dolt and hasn’t performed that well up here. He didnt do well in discussing the nuclear waste dump issue here either. He bragged about having his fingers all over WorkChoices before that turned into a real negative issue. He has copped a bit in the letters to the editor.

    They have a football coach Damien Hale running against him this time around, not being interested in local footy I dont know his level of acceptance. The ALP would win the seat easily if they had preselected Charlie King [very high profile and universally respected] but I can only assume he didnt want to run. Too bad.

    Tollners margin is small and could quite easily lose this seat and in fact I think he will. WorkChoices, 457 visas and nuclear waste dump have all been issues here. One headline in the NT News had the Feds wanting to take over the government of the NT, based on an aside by Brough. That would not have been too popular.

    At work I have had two rusted on Howard supporters jump ship to Rudd – middle aged, wealthy, near retirement guys.

  35. Just Me Says:

    July 7th, 2007 at 2:26 pm
    Well, STROP says that Solomon is going Labor—-

    Ahh actually I stated Solomon was among x seats of which ‘most’ would go to Labor (this time around) because Im not sure how the ‘save NT’ policy will play out over there -Before Howard announced that policy I would have called it for Labor, yes. Thanks for your input on that seat Just, should be an interesting tussle.

  36. I think Rob is right. It has now been almost 6 months in which the 2PP vote has remained at around the 57/43 mark. That is amazingly consistent.

    If you go take a look at the poll results in the year leading up to the 1996 election, where we last had a change of government, you will see a much more volatile pattern. The coalition were leading for most of the way, but the margin was shifting around a lot more than it has this year. There were even some periods in which the difference between the two parties was miniscule. And this was despite Keating apparently being on the nose and an electorate “waiting for election day with baseball bats”.

    It seems to me that the stability in the polls this year represents an electorate that made up its mind months ago. They are simply waiting for election day to actually exercise their vote.

    This is not to say that there won’t be some movement in the polls between now and the election – after all, some people might change their mind. But frankly, despite months of a sustained and negative attack from Howard and his jokers, most people haven’t change their minds, so it really will take something extraordinary to shift thousands of votes back to the government.

    And Howard has already tried one attempt at the extraordinary with the Aboriginal “emergency”, which has flopped because Howard has lost trust and credibility with the electorate.

    And coming back to scare campaigns, Labor probably have FAR more material for mounting a scare campaign than the coalition. For a start, Labor’s campaign will be grounded in facts that already connect with public opinion, such as warning voters about a planned phase 2 of Workchoices, something which Minchin and Howard have both let slip over recent months.

  37. Nick
    I am not sure whether the military are too happy with the Howard governments handling of the defence forces. And it was the Hawke government that gave the Vietnam veterans a coming parade in 1987 after 15 years of shameful treatment by the Whitlam and Fraser governments.

    The Seaking crash
    Navy maintenance workers found a problem with the flight controls of a Sea King helicopter two months before it fell from the sky and killed nine military personnel, but they reinstalled a defective part because no spare could be found.
    The Australian Defence Force continued flying passengers in Sea King helicopters despite evidence that the seating could not withstand crashes, an inquiry has heard. The dangers, recognised after a Sea King crash in Cape York in 1995, were taken into account and from 1999 to 2003 no passengers were carried in Sea Kings. But in December 2003, the Defence Force decided that the difficulty and cost of accepting more crashworthy seats, with lap sashes replacing simple lap belts, was too much and that the risk should be accepted.
    Commodore Geoffery Ledger, caught everyone’s attention when he recalled telling the maritime commander he was being “kept in the dark on some maintenance problems”. In an email on 28 March, he warned: “During my time as FEG commander there have been several incidents, issues, exceedances that have occurred with naval aviation that I was not aware of at the time or at the very last moment. I’m very happy to raise a couple of recent issues in particular that I believe you will agree was unacceptable.” Rear-Admiral Moffat responded: “Geoff, I suggest that you sit on the idea until the last few months of your tenure. There’s little receptiveness or capacity for taking on such work.” Two days later, the Sea King crashed.

    HAILA McCARTHY: It’s quite possible that Paul would be alive today had he been in a crashworthy seat with maybe a four-point harness. Yes, and not only Paul, but a number of the other passengers on board.

    Firefighting at military bases
    The lives of defence personnel will be put at risk because of a decision to cut 12 firefighting jobs at Victorian military bases, the firefighters union has warned.
    The fire aboard the Westralia
    The Department of Defence has denied it received a document reportedly warning of the danger of a fire on board HMAS Westralia before a fatal fire in 1998. A document has emerged in a Senate Committee that alleges the Defence Department knew about safety problems on board HMAS Westralia before a fire that killed four sailors. The Department was criticised for knowing about fuel system problems before the fire, but it was never proven. Labor Senator John Faulkner has tabled the signed document and wants the Department to determine if it is authentic.

    LYNDON PELLY: The Navy to us, in our eyes are the primary people that we’re concerned about because we put our children in their care, and we were quite convinced from an early stage that the Navy showed a complete lack of duty to care to our children, and as it appears, it appears that the Navy is going to get out of this scot-free and put all the blame or try and put all the blame on Australian Defence Industries.

    Equipment for our armed services

    Paul Barclay:
    And earlier this year, concerns surfaced about the quality of equipment issued to these soldiers. There were claims of combat jackets that supposedly glowed in the dark, allegedly defective helmets, and so on.

    A number of RODUMS were leaked to the media. They’re Reports On Defective Or Unsatisfactory Materiel. They indicated some soldiers were so dissatisfied with the issued backpacks, combat boots, and webbing, used for carrying water, ammunition and so on, and other parts of their kit, that they were purchasing their own. And the effectiveness of the RODUM system itself, designed to highlights deficiencies in gear, came under scrutiny during Senate Estimates hearings.
    My mates are getting hurt by inadequate gear, and my mates are I believe, suffering morale problems and in many cases, leaving the Force. And I don’t think we can allow that to go on.

    Kovco
    Serving soldiers in Iraq are venting their anger at the mix-up over the return of their mate’s body. The soldiers comments were posted on a pirate website airing military grievances. One said Pte Kovco’s body was treated “like unaccompanied baggage”. He described the debacle as an “insult”.
    There are plenty of other stories about bastardisation being ignored and the resultant suicides despite promises to stop the practice, about parents buying equipment for their kids in the army because of poor or no equipment being issued. The soldiers in the Solomons were not given war zone payment status until they complained. The defense association was very critical of the treatment of Hicks.

    But the Seaking crash where it was noted the cost of installing crashworthy seats was too much must grate when you consider that Howard had no trouble authorising seats at $3,000 a piece for his cabinet room.

  38. What could turn it round for Howard? A terrorist attack on Australian soil.
    I’m a pessimistic Labor supporter: I won’t believe Rudd is winning until I see the actual results on election night.

  39. Howard has to be very careful especially since there would be any number within the Public Service very happy to see him go thus leaks could undermine any BS.

    Anything like a Tampa, Baby Overboard or Aboriginal initiative would backfire since the public view the govt with universal scepticsm. If Howard in his desperation to cling to power does something outrageous [or a third party on his behalf] then it will backfire and make things a hell of a lot worse for them.
    I dont think the appearance of Bush with Howard is going to do him much good, especially now that the Iraq discussion has come back and, the Qld MPs may get a day in court at some some stage.

    The Liberals need to keep ‘damage control’ in the back of their minds. It is all very well to assume the gap will close when an election is called and that the final result will be close but, this may be unchartered territory and the margin might not change too much. They dont want to get caught using their usual tricks to win the election only to find they went backwards and get obliterated.

    The trick is to know when to go into damage control [change the leadership and front bench and go onto a straight forward policy debate].

    If we have three more weeks with no poll change then Howard must be dumped.

    The Oz is trying to run the line that the people are still open minded about Howard and also about switching from Labor. I reckon that is a bit of Industry sponsored BS just to protect Howard.

    The worst thing for the govt and good for Labor might be polls that dont quiet give a clear message.

  40. It’s actually not true that “NT MPs tend to stick around for a long time.” Since the MP for the NT acquired full voting rights, three members have been put out after one term (Reeves, Everingham and Dondas), and one after two terms (Tambling). Only Calder and Snowdon have been long-term incumbents.

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