Idle speculation: Easter edition

The much-loved Idle Speculation series will henceforth double as a vehicle for updates on preselection and other election-related action. Developments of note from the past week:

Queensland Senate (Liberal): Next Saturday, about 250 Queensland Liberal preselectors will determine who will fill the vacancy created by Santo Santoro’s departure. The person chosen will serve out the remainder of Santoro’s term, which ends in July next year. What happens then is yet to be determined. Before Santoro’s departure, the party had decided upon a ticket with Ian Macdonald at number one, Santo Santoro at number two, Young Liberals president Mark Powell at number three, and businesswoman and disabled advocate Sue Boyce at number four. The party administration is yet to determine whether the second position will be filled by promoting Powell up the order, or by holding a new preselection. Many an eyebrow was raised last weekend when Powell withdrew from the race to fill the short-term vacancy, instead throwing his support behind former state party leader Bob Quinn (who reportedly has the support of the Prime Minister). This was despite Powell’s links to the Santoro faction and its traditionally strained relations with Quinn. The Gold Coast Bulletin reports speculation that "the Santoro mob have withdrawn their candidate and opposition to Mr Quinn so they can regroup before the federal election to push Mr Powell into the No. 2 spot, hoping Mr Quinn’s popularity, if he is a Senator then, would be enough to launch all three into the Senate from the third position". A further motivation might have been a desire to thwart Sue Boyce, the favoured candidate of state party leader Bruce Flegg. Flegg’s "western suburbs" grouping played a similar spoiling role against Powell last year when it blocked his preselection bid for Quinn’s old state seat of Robina, by shifting support from its own candidate to the unaligned Ray Stevens. Other candidates for the Senate vacancy include Ted O’Brien, chairman of the Australian Republican Movement; David Moore, staffer to Longman MP Mal Brough; and Doug Young, a lawyer "specialising in the resources sector".

Queensland Senate (Greens): Fairfax’s Brisbane Times website reports that environmental lawyer Larissa Waters is believed to have had a "landslide" win over Juanita Wheeler in last Thursday’s Greens preselection vote. Andrew Landeryou‘s sources have told him of a 300-100 margin in Waters’ favour, although Greens supporters might be inclined to take issue with aspects of Landeryou’s account. The party is "expected to make an announcement" of the result next week.

NSW Senate (Labor): The Sydney Morning Herald reports that Labor’s state general secretary Mark Arbib is contemplating a run for the Senate, contrary to earlier reports he hoped to unseat the notoriously unproductive Michael Hatton in the safe lower seat of Blaxland. It is reported that two of Labor’s winnable seats will go to incumbent Ursula Stephens of the Right and Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national secretary Doug Cameron, who has the numbers to unseat incumbent George Campbell for the position reserved for the Left. It is not clear which of the three hopefuls would take the safe first and second positions, and which would have to settle for the dubious third. Anne Davies of the Sydney Morning Herald reports speculation that Arbib’s jockeying for union support played a role in state Blacktown MP Paul Gibson’s ill-fated appointment to cabinet.

Page (NSW, Nationals 5.5%): Clarence Valley councillor Chris Gulaptis has won the Nationals preselection for this north coast seat, which has been left vacant by the retirement of sitting member Ian Causley. The Northern Star reports Gulaptis won "comfortably" with over half the first preference vote, from a field that included local doctor Sue Page, Kyogle mayor Ernie Bennett, Ballina councillor Sharon Cadwallader and radio presenter Neil Marks. The paper also reports that Labor is "at least two months" away from selecting its own candidate. Those said to be "considering" a run are Clarence mayor Ian Tiley and former state MP Janelle Saffin. Saffin was a Lismore-based upper house member from 1995 until 2003, when she withdrew from preselection after it became clear she would not retain a winnable position on the party ticket.

Dobell (NSW, Liberal 4.8%). Amid little fanfare, Health Services Union official Craig Thompson has been endorsed as Labor’s candidate to recover the central coast seat it lost to current Liberal member Ken Ticehurst in 2001.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

401 comments on “Idle speculation: Easter edition”

Comments Page 7 of 9
1 6 7 8 9
  1. i will check my email

    if you look at the note at the top of my australian section, you will see that i have been slowly reformatting all my federal election stats since before xmas. 1972 is one of those not yet done. sorry. i will try to get back to it soon. if you tell me what exactly you want i can either post it here or send it to you.

  2. This debate has become very similar to the end of “photo finishes”. If Bill is representative of the Greens, we see a dysfunctional party confused by major issues, which has warm and fuzzy policies. It attracts 1. people who don’t read policies but like to be warm and fuzzy (?doctor’s wives), unreconstructed trots and xenophobes. Thank God they will only ever have marginal power in Australia.

    Bob Gould is still alive and his bookshop is the best in Sydney.

  3. Bill Weller, the Greens candidate for Kingston, wrote: “Capitalism is and always will be profits before people, profits before the environment.”

    “I dont have a magic solution but until theres equality worldwide then capitalism will always cause starvation for the majority in the world and obscene profits for the few”

    The Green Left Weekly couldn’t have said it better. BTW Chavez can rule by decree for the next 17-odd months without needing to go to the parliament. Isn’t it great to not have to deal with other people’s opinions?

  4. bill says: “until theres equality worldwide then capitalism will always cause starvation for the majority in the world.”

    I don’t want to be unpleasant to bill, who is obviously a very sincere person (and thanks for the email bill), but this really is the most arrant nonsense. Over the last 30 years capitalism, whether in China, India, South Korea, the other Asian countries, even Indonesia, has delivered a greater rise in the standard of living of more people than anywhere else in history in such a short time. It is doing the same, more slowly, in Latin America (more slowly because it is being less effectively implemented). The only places where people are starving are where capitalism cannot operate because of local political reasons, such as North Korea and Zimbabwe. Of course unrestricted capitalism brings with it many evils, and it must be regulated to redress those: that’s why I’m a social democrat and not a Thatcherite. But to argue that capitalism is *intrinsically* evil is nonsense, and to argue that capitalism leads to starvation etc etc is 19th century Marxism – even sophisticated Marxists don’t argue that any more, bill. People in Africa and Latin America can’t buy computers and running shoes if they’re starving – capitalism wants them to be prosperous. It’s people like Mugabe and Chavez who are keeping them poor in the name of a spurious “equality.”

  5. What no comment on the engrossing contests for the Tasmanian Legislative Council? – so engrossing in one of them the sitting member was re-elected unopposed

  6. And let’s have none of this “not engrossing” talk. Pembroke should be a cracker – last time, Allison Ritchie won a two-horse race 53.8-46.2. Now she has the stench surrounding the Lennon government to contend with.

  7. I’ll answer the question about Bob Gould, because once upon a time I lived in Sydney. Bob is a famous left-wing Labor activist, who was at the height of his powers during the moratoriums, and has run the Gould’s Bookshop in Newtown For Ever. He is always at left events in Sydney, and always asks a long-winded question. Then another. And another. He blogs at Leftwrites. A flavour of the man may be obtained there.

  8. In other words, to come back to bill’s point, he is an old 70s relic and of no significance whatever in the ALP, if indeed he is even a member. To use him as a defence to the charge that the Greens have been taken over by the extreme left and are perpetrating a fraud on the electorate is pretty threadbare.

  9. I think he may still be ALP but he is definitely not at the centre of much these days. Far left fringe more like.

  10. This is great i am classed as a trot/commie/extreme left/ on here and on GLW im classed as a member of a capitalist party with many right wing policies.

    Lets get back to the subject.

    # Stephen L Says:
    April 15th, 2007 at 4:50 pm

    What no comment on the engrossing contests for the Tasmanian Legislative Council? – so engrossing in one of them the sitting member was re-elected unopposed.

    I don’t know anything about this. Can someone fill me in.

  11. The GLW are irrelevant. No doubt, anyone who thinks that there is anything positive about capitalism whatsoever is a “reactionary” to them.

  12. Lynton Vonow Green candidate for Mayo is and will be working the electorate hard. I expect high double figures here (20+ %) being the biggest Greens branch in SA there is a good amount of people on the ground linking community groups electorate wide. ( i belong to the smallest suburban branch) The Greens will do good in Mayo and could come second.

  13. Had a talk with some voters in Kingston who are doing it hard ( single mothers/fathers unemployed couples with children) The interesting thing is their strong ( through their children’s pushing ) need to help with reduction in the causes of global warming. These people who should be worried how they will survive week by week are more worried about the environment. It makes people in the affluent areas look selfish and ignorant as they light up their whole house with the blinds and curtains open so we can look in awe at what they have. I hope the ALP when it gains Government makes sure that the REAL destroyers of the environment ( the multinationals and its consumerism push) are brought to justice. Is it fair that the poor try hard to do the right thing while the rich dont give a care? The environment cannot be used as a token vote winner when time is running out. Richardson has from day one tackled environmental issues in Kingston after many years of non interested from MPs of both sides. What are Rishworths ideas on this subject? Environmental groups here will be waiting to see what she does.

  14. fanatical Muslim terrorists. Not to be mixed up with Koran devoted Muslims as it is against the killing of inocents

  15. Re: Bob Gould – he often has a bookstall at the NSW state conference, so I assume he is still a member. A few years ago I saw him have a quiet discussion, in the foyer, with that other relic – “Johno” Johnson. It made the whole boring weekend somehow worthwhile.

  16. If Bill is representative of the Greens, we see a dysfunctional party

    That description can be of the ALP just as well over the last how many years??? No policies No direction No leader. Its funny that the ALP biggest chance of winning is to become a clone of the Libs.Howards government is worn out and will be replaced by a similar one. Its like finding a good pair of shoes and buying two of them. When one pair is worm out you replace it with the other. Looks and feels the same just a bit fresher. will still end up the same. I must go to bed I need to get up at 3 for a 4 oclock start. Ive got to make money for a multinational and struggle to survive. As the years go on its harder to survive so the prosperity has not hit any of the multitude i know

  17. Bill, on the first Saturday of each May, elections are held for either two or three of the 15 seats that make up the Tasmanian Legislative Council. The house never “dissolves” – it just has (potentially) one or two changes of personnel each year. Only two people on the mainland care about these elections: me and Stephen L.

    This year is the turn of the electorates of Montgomery, Nelson and Pembroke. In Montgomery, nobody has nominated against the sitting independent, Sue Smith (same happened in one of the seats last year – I forget which one). The independent member for Nelson, Jim Wilkinson, faces only a Greens candidate (Bill, I have to say that your Tasmanian party colleagues have rocks in their heads causing unnecessary elections like this; there was another independent-incumbent-versus-Greens-challenger election last year, and the incumbent won 80-20).

    Like I say, the humdinger is Pembroke, one of five seats held by Labor (or has Terry Martin has quit the party? If so, it’s four). The other 10 seats are held by independents, as the Liberals do not formally contest upper house elections. However, a number of the independents are from Liberal backgrounds.

  18. “As the years go on its harder to survive so the prosperity has not hit any of the multitude i know”

    I wonder if any of the house valuations of any of these multitudes increased over the last 15 years?

  19. Adelaide house prices haven’t risen nearly as much as those in Sydney, Melbourne and Perth, and I would think even less so in unfashionable areas like Kingston

  20. does anyone relise the hypocrisy in the Australian today?

    One article Howard says abolishing workchoices will cause wages to rise, which will cause interest rates to rise.

    Next IR article. Local Council wants to give employees AWA that increase wages 25%

    the Glenn Milne attacks Hockey for not initially attacking Rudd

    Maybe its just me…

  21. Bill

    Do you use lights at night? Do you cook? Do you drive a car? And Do you breath? It has been proven that human (especially overpopulation) causes pollution.

    Multinational in a lot of instances reduces the amount of pollution, for example, what do you think uses more energy. Every home in Australia making their own bread? Or having a company bake bread for 100,000 household. If 100,000 people want bread, then pollution will happen, it is good to blame a company for all that is wrong in the world, but it is people who actually cause pollution. As long as there are people, there will be pollution.

  22. Bruce Baird has announced his retirement.

    My website is offline, if anyone is wondering, because my ISP has had a server melydown. They promise it will be up by lunchtime.

  23. I’m going to raise something that hasn’t previously been discussed here. What are people’s thoughts on the (so-called) Anzac Day fiasco? Personally, I don’t see the big deal. I think News Ltd publications are going feral because they are terrified Rudd might actually beat Howard. They’ll savage him to no-end in a desperate big to ensure Howard keeps the top job. Thoughts?

  24. I think it’s a storm in a teacup – while it does seem to cut to the question of Rudd’s honesty/dishonesty and his media relationships, I think that the affection many feel for Sunrise will counteract that.

    After all, this is a voting population who has returned a lying PM and government for more than a decade.

    Rudd has backed off Sunrise now, along with Hockey (who has been incredibly good natured about it). By the time the election rolls around no one will give a rats.

  25. True true. Am curious though to see the short-term impact. Newspoll is out tonight! Any guesses for what the 2PP will be?

Comments are closed.

Comments Page 7 of 9
1 6 7 8 9