The previous federal election thread was getting long and unwieldy, so I’ve closed it and set up shop here. Perhaps you might like to discuss today’s front page splash in The Australian, "Labor in strongest electoral position since 2001", based on a 56-44 Newspoll result.
Author: William Bowe
William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.
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They are starting on the economy – skills – there was debate in parliament this morning.
The skills shortage is an economic disaster that not only occured on the watch of this incompetent Government it was deliberate policy to cripple education and training. Some messages like this should play to both sides as it is both economic mismanagement and social neglect.
As for Hicks the rabid scarred – lets throw away human rights – aren’t noticing that they are drawing conclusions and effectively drawing a conclusion of guilt in an almost complete absence of any evidence, let alone reliable evidence and lets be honest after the torture and abuse anything Hicks says is unreliable – almost as unreliable as anything the US Military says about its torture record.
Hicks benefits from fact that global public opinion is more hostile to the US than in 2002, this people are more sympthetic to opponents of the US. S11 has been displaced in part by the death and suffering and Iraq which people tend to blame on the US.
Some people used to excuse Soviet wrongdoings; Berlin wall, invasion of Hengary, Czechoslovakia, martial law in Poland on grounds that Soviet opinion was traumatised by the great wrong of the German invasion of 1941. Not an acceptable line of argument ditto for US post S11.
Much US policy has focused on seeking revenge/retributation for S11, but the killers are dead and they can’t get the actual planners, so much thrashing about and a focus on anyone they can grab connected by the most tenuous links to S11. It is clear that the torture and abuse of prisoners has become an end in itself, Solzhenitsyn described the evolution of the Gulag in similar terms.
Both learned and devestating Geoff R – brilliant. Hopefully your grammar stands up to the likely brutal attack.
Good point Alex, and it’s encouraging for Labor voters to remember that when we’re staring down the margins in some of those suburban Brisbane electorates now (Bowman 8.9, Petrie 7.9 etc). Unfortunately, though, Latham’s performance isn’t the only factor that has changed the margins in those Queensland electorates since 2001. There’s also been a redistribution that on the whole was mildly friendly to the Coalition in QLD, offset by mild friendliness to Labor in the simultaneous NSW redistribution. For example, Hinkler (around Bundaberg) was once a frequent target for Labor, but on the current expanded boundaries that take in much more of the hinterland, it’s solid Nat-territority. In Brisbane itself, Dickson has likewise been redistributed beyond Labor’s reach.
C-Woo, Labor must start arguing on the economy early and often!
Potential impact on the economy is the Liberals’ trump card to Labor’s current advantage in several policy areas: especially the potential vote-winners of WorkChoices and Climate Change. Labor must show that rolling-back WorkChoices won’t hurt the economy (since WC is based on a mistaken economic premise of which global labour market Australia is competing in). I believe they will not win a substantial swing of votes on this issue otherwise, as i argued more extensively above.
Likewise they must show that what Howard is calling Labor’s “knee-jerk greenie” response to climate change won’t result in huge energy bill increases (since Labor’s energy efficiency policy delivers substantial savings that will fund green energy investments) or cost jobs (since coal phase-out will be slowed by clean coal technologies, and since the jobs of the future will be in renewable energy industries).
Beyond protecting their own policies from attack on economic grounds, Labor must also show that Howard has run out of ideas to unleash any new wave of economic growth. Framing investment in education as an economic issue is a masterstroke by Rudd, since Howard’s record in cutting education funding is outstandingly poor. But Rudd also has the economic issue of the decade to play out: reforming federal-state relations. On this, he has already won the endorsement of big business, who have been researching and highlighting the detrimental effects to the economy of the inefficiencies in our federal system for years. Howard has sat inactive on this issue for years, and his only rhetorical defence is to blame the states for obstructionism, yet each time he does this Rudd’s answer is deliciously predictable and effective: “Blame Game!”
When Rudd fully unveils policy in this area and starts campaigning on it, voters will see that Labor is not only the party that will protect their jobs and safeguard the environment, but also the only party with a plan to keep the economy growing. When that happens, maybe even Hinkler and Dickson will be within reach, after all!
My arguments are always long-winded and i apologise. Here’s the crux: people want to vote Labor this year for lots of reasons. What stops them is fear of what Labor’s policies, which they otherise like, will do to the economy. Rudd must convince voters that he’s got the goods on economic issues as well. If he can do that, i predict the swing will be in the vicinity of 10%.
Is it blog spelling that “you are” is now abbreviated to “your” not “you’re”, as is correct? I can’t believe that so many seemingly intelligent people continue to get basic things like wrong.
Oops! And then I forgot to put the ‘that’ in the last sentence. Well shoot me! It always happens to the sanctimonious doesn’t it?
I agree Dave .. Dickson’s too far out, and the split of Bonner/Bowman is such that Bowman will be a difficult one to reclaim. (Bonner should never have been lost in the first place though). Still, Petrie’s boundries haven’t changed and I think it’s fair game .. which still gives Labor the 6 QLD seats. Eden-Monaro, Dobell and *please god* Bennelong are all ripe for the picking too in NSW .. especially if, as your saying above, Labor errode the government’s reputation on the economy. Deakin and McMillan in VIC are a bit more of a stretch on 5% each .. but if the swings on …
If it comes down to a very close election, the government’s legislation to take some voters off the rolls and make it harder for others to get on may well be the difference.
lol … wot ru say’n soozie … dat wee iz all bad spellerz?
Can anyone enlighten me as to when I we might expect the next AC Nielsen poll? They usually run monthly and by my calculation we’re due for one
We spend to be talking just as much about grammar and spelling as we are about psephology. Can people just chill out and recognise that it’s an online forum, and we’re not expecting people’s writings to be subedited before being published.
I’m with you Ben. Its bloody annoying to be frank. Let’s just stick to the topic at hand.
The topic at hand being ‘idle speculation’; lets speculate on who will follow Amanda to an undeserved overpaid job rather than face up to what might be an election loss?
I don’t know .. I kind of feel sorry for Amanda Vanstone. I’m not forgetting the multitude of sins she committed, but really, she was given the portfolios no one else wanted so that she’d take all the heat and become the focus of so many people’s hatred. She did all that loyally and is now being tossed so that the goverment can supposedly move forward smelling clean on issues like immigration.
Re Alex’s list: Macquarie is now a notional Labor seat so can’t be on the list. On the other hand Parramatta is now a notional Liberal seat so it should be on the list. I agree with you that the Qld seats are probably more vulnerable than they look on paper, especially with the Ruddster at the helm (though we should remember that Hayden didn’t get much of a swing in Qld in 1980). But this is partly offset by the increased risk of losing Cowan and Swan, and not winning Hasluck and Stirling, with the departure of Beazley. Also we should remember that although Iemma will be re-elected by default in March, he will still be an unpopular premier in October, and unpopular state Labor governments always drag down the federal Labor vote. I can’t see any easy gains for federal Labor in NSW except Parramatta. I don’t think either Wentworth or Bennelong is winnable. Dobell, Lindsay, Eden-Monaro, Paterson – maybe.
Just looking at the comments and in particular the idea that the SDA is some great Union. Both my sons belonged to it and their employers laughed at them saying how weak it was and they would see this. Sure enough employees needing assistance received little help from this union. We in Kingston had community actions against radio rentals for their mis treatment of employees I never saw one SDA union official or member turn up at any of these actions. Come to think of it they rarely turn up to anything thats community based. As an AMWU delegate and Green candidate for Kingston I am proud of the work that the YR@W campaign has achieved in this area. This organization is non political and has brought community activists together in an effort to stop the attack on working families and the community at large. Just one point on the ALP candidate,she i believe does not live in the electorate (if she does its only recent) and doesn’t seem to get her hands dirty with union actions (SDA??) It is a pity that the ALP would consider a right winger as a good choice for this seat when it desperately needs someone from the left.
Next Newspoll is important for the Coalition Government.
It will show whether the good economy/low unemployment pitch is still working with the public.
If their numbers go up, it has obviously worked and this is something Labor will have to work hard on (and may not catch up to).
If they don’t, the government is in real trouble. It’ll prove that something is happening in the electroate for people to shrug and say so what.
I think it could be crucial in an election year.
Actually, has anyone asked around on what is the general public mood in the Howard vs. Rudd battle.
Howard vs. Rudd battle? There will be no battle mr.Woo. Howard is doomed, and may the devil take his disgusting political carcass. The ensuing weeks will painfully reveal the disintergration of his administration, with his fellow rats deserting him in droves, and his fellow travellers pleading innocence of knowledge of his malevolence.
Watch this space.
Adam .. I included Macquarie as a Labor gain because essentially it is a current Liberal seat. I also think that they will retain Parramatta despite the seat boundry (and subsequent margin) change.
As for there being a risk of not winning Hasluck and Stirling: both seats were Labor held (by 1.8% margins) before Marky Mark’s disaster in 04 .. and I think the Peel by-election (a WA state seat enclosed by Beazley’s federal seat of Brand), which was the first by-election result, state or federal, where the opporsition actually had a swing “against” it takes some sting out of the argument that there’d be a backlash against Labor for dumping Kimbo.
I suppose we’ll have to wait for targeted seat polling to get a truer picture in these 20 odd battleground’s.
Holy crap .. Anna Nicole Smith is dead.
Thought I’d better issue a caveat for the above entry .. knowing how some are sticklers for detail. I meat to say: which was the first by-election result, “for quite a while” where the opporsition actually had a swing “against†it. A small but important point.
Oh, and for the record .. I “DO” think there’s a link between greenhouse gas emissions and climate change 🙂
I don’t have seat specific polling but I cannot imagine Hasluck not falling to labor. Hasluck was carpet bombed with ‘no interest rate rise’ lies from Howard and some booths behaved in a way that seems only consistent with the lies working.
Before any general Western Australian swing I would factor in these booths returning to more usual behaviour, and I would also factor in the brick works. That the former labor member is running again (it is pretty certain) makes the campaign quite even on recognition & personal votes basis.
Prior to the selection of the candidate I would have tipped Stirling to stay with the current member, but the other guy has a chance. To put Cowan and Swan in the mix means either you don’t see the last election as particularly poor for labor.
Everyone has forgot that he Nationals are going to win Flynn and Calare. This means that Labor’s task is just a little greater. Similarly If the parliament were hung Windsor and Katter would support the coalition in confidence and supply. Therefore the ALP needs 21 seats to win government.
Apart from the failures of those vilified (isn’t it great that vilification laws don’t apply!) Shoppies: Isn’t it great that the Australian unionist has had courageous, selfless, self-sacrificing and successful union leaderships!!! Those who refuse the offers of Big Business (any bells ringing? You may have forgotten, but they know who they are). Those who won’t suck up to political labor (what happened to your “Fair Trade” heroes, eh?) Who sold their members out in countless industries? Why do unionist “leaderships” continue to fail to confront political labor over manufacturing decimation? Absolutely pathetic! What are the achievements of the labor community defence initiative, WREDO (Western Melbourne Regional Development)? Why? Just whose side are the local labor councillors and their union comrades on? Greg Combet may be a tryer, but if he was a football coach, he’d try a new plan of action, or he’d resign and give some else a go. Don’t get me wrong, it is not just unions and their leaderships I deplore-poor civic virtue and leadership applies everywhere, in the churches, in voluntary associations, in business. But targetting the shop girls’ outfit, while the careerist “men” who “lead” our benighted, industrial bread-winners appear to be only using their members for personal gain, is a bit juvenile now, isn’t is?
We’re all in this Australia together, so let’s try to share open minds on the nation’s needs and what acceptable means are.
The Nationals will probably win Flynn, but that only compensates them for the abolition of Gwydir. The Nats will not win Calare if Andren stands there, as I think he will. Also I think Windsor would support a Labor government if Labor has more seats and more votes than the Coalition. Katter is totally unpredictable, but if Andren and Windsor supported Labor, he might do so also. So, as Malcolm Mackerras says, Labor COULD form a government with a gain of only 13 seats.
Forgive me if some of you have already expressed an opinion here on this but, come on, put your cards on the table now. Who do you think will win the next Federal election. I believe Labor will. I sense a change in community thinking and the coalition is not as slick as it once was.
Well Gary I will go to the grave convinced Beazley would have won if retained. Rudd seems to have got an extra bounce and unless he self destructs should have a better win than Beazley would have.
My view rests on a couple of factors but primarily a view that voters are feeling that the good times look like they might be over and with reminders from increasing interest rates aren’t sure they are leaving the boom as well off as they might have hoped. Workchoices helps focus the insecurity and rightly or wrongly helps voters put the blame at the feet of the Government. A general gloss of incompetence thru Iraq, AWB more than a decade of global warming denial etc I think helps as a focal prism rather than as actual decisive factors.
If I’m wrong in my assessment of the mood, and I’m happy to admit it is merely speculation, then the only basis I have for any confidence is the polling which has seemed pretty stable (perhaps unusually stable) and trending in the right direction. I’m not convinced we are seeing purely honeymoon madness… but time will tell.
http://www.news.com.au/story/0,10117,21197166-29277,00.html
I’m became convinced of a Labor victory when Rupert Murdoch came out in support of Kevin Rudd .. he did that with Tony Blair in the late 90’s (even flying Blair out to a North QLD resort for talks) and Blair stormed through his first election some months later.
I don’t think people should write off Bennelong and Wentworth falling to Labor. It might seem like wishful thinking, but with the recent distribution, you can’t discount the possibility. Bennelong now sits on 4% (or thereabouts) and Wentworth on 2.3%. Sure, they are held by, some might say, popular members … but if a swing is on, they tend not to discriminate in favour of higher profile members. In fact, sometimes swings punish them even more if they are actual ministers in an unpopular gov’t rather than mere backbenchers. Again, maybe just wishful thinking.
Alex,
The next AC Nielsen poll will be on Monday. Since there has not been one since Rudd took over, will be interesting to see if it agrees with Newspoll.
Psephophile should recall Bill McMahon’s situation in Lowe. In 1972, 1974 and 1980 he was widely predicted to be facing defeat. His margins at those elections were 4.9%, 3.0% and 6.3%. Each time he hung on, despite the predictions of Mungo McCallum (who wrote a column called “Swing Lowe, sweet chariot”). High-profile sitting members DO have a personal vote, and can also get a sympathy vote if their constits think they are being hounded in the press. This will probably be the case for Howard in Bennelong. It’s hard to see Turnbull generating much sympathy, but he certainly has a high profile, and also has a lot of money to spend. His “progressive” veneer from the republic days will also help him with his new voters.
jasmine_Anadyr you’ve summed it up far better than I could have done. I agree with your assessment 1oo percent. Some people tend to forget that when Beazley left the leadership Labor was still ahead in the polls. Something must have been working against the government. Work Choices is not popular. I believe the NSW election will show how unpopular it is.
Cheers for that BenC. I remember heading up to the last election Morgan always veered a bit left, AC Nielsen a bit right with Newspoll taking the middle ground .. so it would be good to see things from their perspective.
With regards to Wentworth, Turnbull isn’t that popular a figure in his own electorate. His margin was cut from 7.9% to 5.6% at the last election. True, his higher profile may help him .. though it may also throw his pugnacious style into the spotlight to his own detriment. If the popular ex-Liberal Peter King decides to run again as an independant, and Turnbull becomes ostracised with an unpopular government the game could be anybodys. The redistribution will pull in more Labor votes, but if it did become a three horse contest Labor would need some King preferences.
Bennelong was cut from 7.8 to 4.3 (a 3.5% swing) .. the Greens polled particularly strongly on the back of Andrew Wilkie but it still shows alot of vunerability for Howard. Especially when you consider that this swing was served up with a national swing “against” Labor of around 3.5%. (and of course the redistribution made it that little bit tighter again)
I also think that Labor are going to get this one and I think that Jasmine expressed why quite well.
Howard told the party room that no government has lost an election without a loss of faith in it by the public and that there is currently no loss of faith apparent in the community.
I think Howard’s right that there is not a general loss of faith, but Jasmine has described it well with ‘A general gloss of incompetence thru Iraq, AWB more than a decade of global warming denial etc’
I get the feeling that we are going to know the result before the election by the liberals behaviour, if Liberal members lose faith in the ability of Howard to win a election and start publically distancing themselves from Howard on issues like climate change and Hicks, then Labor’s got it in the bag
Turnbull can’t have been that unpopular in Wentworth, or the good folks of Double Bay would have voted for Peter King. In that election Turnbull was the wealthy interloper tipping out a reasonably well-liked (if rather dim) sitting member, and he still won. At this election he will be the sitting member and a Cabinet minister. The Liberal faithful will rally round. He will spend a lot of money and his considerable stock of charm on his new voters. Unless the Libs get absolutely massacred in Sydney, I think he will hang on. Labor would be very ill-advised to go celebrity scalp-hunting. It seldom comes off, and diverts money from winnable seats. Labor’s priorities in Sydney should be Parramatta, Lindsay and Hughes.
I’m not sure Labor has much to gain in Sydney – we should hold Parramatta, and possibly gain Lindsay, but I suspect the election will be won and lost elsewhere. Labor can win 2 in Tasmania, 4-5 in SA, a couple in WA, possibly 4 in NSW (Eden-Monaro & Macquarie) and 1 in NT. Victoria will probably stay as is, meaning we will have to win 4-6 seats in Queensland. I agree with Adam (once we’re not talking Hicks!) that the ALP needs to not get excited about celebrity seats like wentworth or Bennelong.
While I think the big issues (climate change, Iraq, IR, interest rates etc) will probably be running Labor’s way by the end of the year (they are certainly heading that way at the moment), I worry this will be more like 1969 than 1972 or 1983. Interestingly though, the bookies have Labor closer than at any time in the last 10 years.
Adam, there are plenty of examples where incumbents hang on each and every time with the barest of majorities. Bob Charles in La Trope and Chris Gallus in Hindmarsh (both since retired) come to mind. And I definately don’t think Wentworth is ripe for the picking by Labor. All I’m saying is that Labor would be foolhardy not to give it a go. You can’t ignore margins of 2.3% just because it’s held by a “high profile” member in a supposedly “blue ribbon” seat. Suppose Rudd wins with a swing of 5% (not at all unlikely) and Turnbull loses only half that, at 2.5%, then his popularity would pare back the swing against him but still be enough to tip him out. I actually think he’s well liked in Wentworth, having lived there myself. I agree that Bennelong is far more unlikely but demographics keep changes as do the redistributions. Bennelong is creeping further and further to the west, introducing more Labor voting areas.
If anything, Labor should be serious about fielding strong candidates in Bennelong and Wentworth because I also think it’s not bad politics to keep Howard and Turnbull on their feet campaigning in their own electorates during the campaign thus distracting them from more general election campaigning. Imagine Rudd criss-crossing the country selling his policies but Howard having to return to Bennelong constantly to retain his electorate. Even if it’s not to win, there could be some mischievous but clever politics in this.
Actually .. Labor had a good candidate in Wentworth at the last election, which, as it turned out, was unfortunate because David Patch polled more on primaries than King did. If it were the other way round we’d have an independant in Wentworth today as King would have romped home on Labor preferences.
Is Andrew Wilkie running again in Bennelong?
I agree with you Hugo regarding the seats the ALP need to win, however as Parramatta is notionally Liberal, if the ALP wins Parramatta, Macquarie, Lindsay, and Eden-Monaro thats an overall gain of 3. I agree with others that Bennelong and Wentworth will be tough but worth a solid campaign.
The ALP should also seriously look at Dobell and Paterson, seats that swung too far in 2004 and must swing back. The redistribution helped the ALP in both seats. They are also sensitive to a scare campaign over nuclear power, both electorates are in the “prime areas” outlined in the by Ziggy.
Adam, why do you think Hughes is a good target?
Money will not be a issue at this election for labor so i think labor can put money into seats like Wentworth and Robertson
It will be interesting to see how the greens go nationally especially in the senate. We have the chance of doubling our senate numbers and could push the coalition in a seat like Mayo. Whoever wins government would need to analyze each seat for minor party percentages to see what is important in those areas. And pigs fly
Hmmm .. not sure David Patch was the best candidate in 2004. If he was so great he should have realised Labor weren’t going to win in Wentworth at that election and deliberately run dead to allow King the chance to deprive Turnbull an entrance into Parliament.
The redistribution has improved Hughes for Labor somewhat and Danna Vale is a dill – but she may well still be popular locally. I agree that Paterson, Eden-Monaro and Dobell are winnable. I think Page is too if Causley is retiring.
Labor to win 4 or 5 in SA? I don’t think so. Three would be very good going.
In WA Labor will do well to hold Swan and Cowan and maybe pick up Hasluck – Stirling will be harder and Canning is out of reach (I was there last week and that’s what I was told).
Good point Psephophile .. Patch had his head in the clouds 🙂 Not sure if Wilkie is running again in Bennelong .. I “think” Labor’s 04 candidate, Nicole Campbell, won a local council seat in Ryde?
Actually, the preselections for these seats would have been wrapped up by now .. if anyone knows of a site listing the seats in play for this years election .. along with current margins and candidates, I’d love to have a look. (something akin to this : http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/fed2004.htm .. supplied by our gracious host?)
Alex, as i understand it, the NSW Branch is not preselecting until after the State election.