Today’s Herald-Sun carries extraordinarily detailed data from a Galaxy survey of 942 voters, including "weighted sample" figures of a type that polling agencies normally keep very quiet about. The primary vote figures are Labor 42 per cent, Coalition 39 per cent and Greens 12 per cent, with Labor’s lead ballooning out to 55-45 after preferences. This compares with 52-48 from Galaxy’s survey at the beginning of the campaign.
In other result prediction news, assessments for each seat have finally been added to the Poll Bludger’s election guide. The biggest call is that Health Minister Bronwyn Pike’s seat of Melbourne will indeed fall to the Greens, a conclusion I have been hesitant to reach, but the weight of the consensus has finally worn me down. I am also tipping that Labor will lose every seat it holds by 2.8 per cent or less, namely Evelyn (0.3 per cent), Hastings (0.9 per cent), Gembrook (1.6 per cent), Kilsyth (2.1 per cent), Ferntree Gully (2.3 per cent), Mount Waverley (2.3 per cent) and Bayswater (2.8 per cent). There follows a 1.6 per cent gap in the electoral pendulum, beyond which I am tipping Labor to lose Eltham (4.8 per cent) and South Barwon (5.0 per cent) but hold Prahran (4.4 per cent), Mordialloc (4.5 per cent), Bentleigh (4.8 per cent) and Morwell (4.9 per cent). I am fairly confident about the first set of judgements and less so about the second, although exceptions in the latter case include South Barwon (where numerous unrelated sources point to a Labor defeat) and Morwell (where Labor suffered even graver local problems last time). Beyond that, I will be keeping an eye on Ballarat East (7.6 per cent) and Bellarine (8.3 per cent), but am tipping them to stay with Labor.
On the other side of the pendulum, I am hesitantly predicting an upset Labor win in former Liberal leader Denis Napthine’s seat of South-West Coast (0.8 per cent) due to perceived federal government plans for a nuclear reactor in Portland. I will also be keeping an eye on Bass (0.6 per cent), which might behave unpredictably given the exceptional circumstances in 2002, when independent MP Susan Davies polled 22.2 per cent as she attempted to move on from her abolished seat of Gippsland West. Davies was a once and future Labor candidate, and Labor played dead in the ultimately forlorn hope that Davies would outvote them. Nonetheless, the prospect of a Labor gain here has been little mentioned. I have also heard the Wodonga-dominated seat of Benambra (4.0 per cent) mentioned as a roughie, due to the retirement of long-standing Liberal member Tony Plowman, Labor’s preselection of Wodonga mayor Lisa Mahood and the complication of Nationals candidate Bill Baxter, member for the corresponding upper house region of North Eastern. Even so, both have been tipped to stay with the Liberals.
Nationals seats threatened by the Liberals are hard to call without firm knowledge of Labor’s how-to-vote cards. Reports have indicated that Labor will preference the Nationals in Shepparton (4.3 per cent) and Gippsland South (10.9 per cent versus Labor), but nothing has been said of Rodney (10.0 per cent). Accordingly, Rodney alone has been tipped as a Liberal gain, and then only conditionally. So, with rights reserved for changes of heart prompted by new information or further opinion polls, I predict that the Liberals will gain nine seat from Labor and one from the Nationals, Labor will gain one from the Liberals, the Greens will gain one from Labor, and independent members in Mildura (18.5 per cent versus Nationals) and Gippsland East (11.8 per cent versus Nationals) will be untroubled. This would change the current numbers of Labor 62, Liberal 17, Nationals seven and independents two to Labor 53, Liberal 26, Nationals six, independents two and Greens one. Detailed assessments for the upper house will follow later in the day, so do stay tuned.
Good call overall. On Morwell Labor should poll 70% in this seat, not withstanding their self-inflicted woes difficult to see them losing it to the conservatives, is the Independent any sort of threat? On the east will some of those marginals be sticky, some of them were Labor in 1988 on a statewide 2PP of 50%? I agree Rodney is a real test for the Nats, it will show what will happen when their sitting MPs retire. SW Coast odd, 6 months ago Labor were not optimistic but the local buzz now favours an upset, of course this may be hype and Labor is streched very thin.
I hope you’re wrong about Prahran. Living in the electorate, I would have definitely thought there was a mood against the incumbent Labor member. Plus the 11% swing against the Liberals in 2002 seems unnatural, wouldn’t you expect a lot of that to fall naturally back? Only 4 in every 10 who abruptly left the Liberals last time need to come back.
I suppose your feeling is that as an inner city seat it might hold or gain a large number of Green votes which will then flow to Labor.
I’m sure MelbCity will question the 4% this poll delivers to Family First as he did with this as the assigned default from Upperhouse.info. If this number is delivered uniformly across all regions I still believe that the prefernce arrangements are not adequate to deliver them a seat in the Legislative Council.
However, if the upside fluctuations about this average are delivered to the rural regions where there are a few more conservative votes to harvest we may well see an upset of Fielding proportions.
Yes Prahran is interesting, it is the battle of the gay members Lib and Greens with a gay acting Labor member. I suspect that it will be a favourable prefrence flow that gets Labor over the line. The preference flow in Mt Waverley may also get labor over the line as people power drawing top card and being Greek will poll at least 1000 plus the green vote . I speak to a lot of Greeks in the electorate and they vote Greek regardless of party, so expect an upset. Morwell will turn out as a dogs breakfast and will go any way and Bass may well fall with the local airbrushed candidate doing nothing in his 4 years at all and an independent who will poll at least 1000 (local and fomer councilor) and the green vote.
In Melbourne still hard, do people think that Liberal supporters are going to put the Greens at 2? It will hurt liberal voters to do that and you may find many don’t copy the the ticket.
I think Prahran will be close even with the Greens doing well. Labor’s campaign is lacklustre. This whole week apart from saturday I have not seen one Labor person (let alone the candidate at any train station or at Prahran market or St Kilda (Balaclava road). I suspect they believe that letting the Greens work hard to deliver preferences is good enough while they send resources to fend off the Greens in Melbourne and Richmond.
Meanwhile Clem Newton-brown workers are being seen around the place.
This one will come close. This is a very smart electorate who will decide on preferences themselves. Labor has taken this electorate for granted as far as I can see. Full page ads in the Gay press alone isn’t going to win this seat. You need to get out there and campaign.
Clem and the Greens are the visible campaigners in this seat.
I’ve noticed Liberals hot to vote cards are preferencing Family First second.
Enough to annoy a hell of a lot of queer voters. And make some downright angry! Where does he get off calling himself gay friendly?
Gay friendly?? He’s gay himself
Is Prahran full of yuppy social liberterians who liked Kennett (hence the good Labor result in 1999) but went back to the left faced with a more conventional Liberal leader, Teddy B might be attractive to these voters? Remember that Prahran has always been Labor on federal figures since the 1990s but this might be an anti-Howard vote?
Centaur-007. Clem Newton-Brown is not gay.
Prahran is a mixed electorate, taking in Wealthy Toorak, to South Yarra and East St Kilda. Greens regularly score over 25% in st Kilda booths.
IT’s not what I’ve heard, but then many say thorpie isn’t either
Centaur_007
That is a funny rumour. I believe his vote would have gone up 2-5% if he was. But his wife might disagree.
Maybe the ALP could bring back Joseph O’Reilly. Now, there was the ALP’s unluckiest candidate.
On the subject of Thorpie, I think the guy need a bit of space to get his life back. And it might be related to him being in LA and actually finding that he can finally be himself.
Prahran has traditionally been won by the Liberals on the strength of their vote north of Commercial/Malvern Rd.
Ted is more of the social small “l” liberal that Jeff was, and this may play well in Prahran, but generally gay people don’t vote as a block, and don’t always vote primarily on gay issues. I think its a bit overplayed, and minor preference deals don’t sway many votes anyway.
Newton-Brown has only had one distribution of material in this campaign and that has only been in the last couple of days. his central funding was cut off because he would not do what lib headquarters wanted.
By downplaying the liberal party in his campaign he is diminishing his brand. This does not transfer into votes. it is not a council election. His tactic would have been completely neutred had an independent named “Clem” decided to run.
Lupton has run a very strong direct mail campaign. He has contrary to dinesh says been doing shopping centres and railway station.
He benefits from both the donkey vote and Green preferences. Yes he has a strong gay following, but importantly he has the greeeks and the jews in his camp too. Newtron-brown has not worked these communities (apart from the gays) at all. Dinesh is correct that Clems campaign is diminished in the gay community by him preferencing family first. Lupton has been quite smart here by creating a wedge – with his “no deals with family first” advertsing in the gay press in this last week of the campaign.
There will undoudtedly be a swing against the incumbent in this seat. However, it will not be the same sort of swing as in the outer easter suburbs. I detect no groundswell on the streets of prahran. But this is a strange campaign state wide. Boring! Dinesh may be picking up on this. This usually favours incumbents. Prahran will probably be down to the wire. and lupton will most likely not know the result on saturday night.
However, the moons are aligned in his favour.
Howard C,
I beg to disagree. Queer issues are important. Labor’s inaction over the last four years will bite them as will the Liberals lack of a clear direction.
Your right we don’t vote as a block, usually. But when the christian parties are out there campaigning, people will get their backs up. Our community was outraged by the election of Steve Fielding on Labor and democrat preferences.
The ALP are worried about the GLBTI community voting in large numbers for the Greens in all the inner city seats. This is a core Greens support group.
wasn’t it Clem that was tearing up the dance floor at the market? Married shmarried, it can’t even protect Cruise
Dinesh
Being a Christian who will probably never vote for Family First, let me say that they are being completely overestimated. Expect them to poll double digits on primaries nowhere, and to get to the magical 4% needed for funding in very few seats.
Any group that votes for the Greens lose my respect politically. I understand you are a member of the Greens, and we will have to agree to disagree, but I will be putting the Greens last tomorrow.
National vote on the Galaxy poll seems high outside Melbourne 15% to 31% for Liberals. Good news for them in the Council?
I’d be surprised if the ALP wins any seats off the Liberals tomorrow, but
South West Coast could indeed be a surprise packet. If I’m right, there was no swing in that seat last election to Labour, going against the trend in many other seats – maybe an overdue correction this time?
I agree Bracks will be likely returned, with the net loss of 5-8 seats to the Liberals. Will the Greens do as well as expected? I wonder how many Liberal voters will have the stomach to give them a 2nd preference?
As a resident in South West Coast I was interested in your listing it as a possibe Labor gain. The Lib member, Dennis Napthine, only just got home last time. His Lab opponent, Roy Reekie, is running for the third time and local ALPers are confident he can make it this time. Both have good local identity.
The area is a bit remote to attact pollsters -so most of us are guessing. Portland is one of the oddest demographics, being very pro-trade union/solidarity while nearly always voting Libs in all subdivisions. Perhaps it is a legacy of their ex-Tasmanian origins.
It may confirm your surmise that Fed issues such as Workchoices and Uranium sites could break Labor’s way. Warrnambool and Hamilton are more traditional Nat-Lib regional centres but not averse to pragmatism.
Taxi gossip I have picked up in my driving is notoriously unreliable – so don’t put too much weight on it. But amongst older people and retirees, traditionally a Lib-voting group, there is a lot of hostility to Workchoices. This is a Fed issue, but Vic labor have played it up a bit in TV advertising. It may turn a few votes.
Why retirees (who are not affected by it) should feel so strongly about it, I don’t know. Perhaps unions and IR fairness are more part of our history than we realise. There are a lot of retirees at Warrnambool and Port Fairy. If some votes are shifted, Reekie is in.
The main comfort for Lib-Nat followers is that this is the one area that defied the 1999 anti-Kennett rural and regional swing.
Trackback.
Voted on Tues in Victoria House in the Strand, London – it was very busy , a higher turnout than officials had anticipated—-with grey London weather laid on!
The libs aren’t giving greens 2nd preference on their HTV in Melbourne. They’re putting the greens second last, ahead of the ALP. So I don’t think lib voters are going to see it as giving the greens 2nd preference.
Howard C,
I agree with your thoughts on Family First. My parents are Catholic and they don’t particularly like Family First.
I was just talking about the principle. Trying to appeal to glbti voters then preferencing Family First is not going to help the Libs in Prahran.
On progressive issues the Greens lead the pack. Thats why GLBTI voters are turning to us. Remember that GLBTI issues only got lip service before. Now Labor and Liberal are playing catchup.
on the street of St Kilda and Prahran and even Bentleigh we’re getting a lot of old folks (not traditional Greens supporters) coming up and chatting about Greens. Never had this before in 10 years of campaigning. The Labor smear seems to have not worked as well as they hoped. we’ll find out tomorrow.
Remember there are six groups leafletting specifically targetting the Greens in most electorates. Even Fred Nile is in on the act. It would be amazing if the Greens hit 12% or so with that kind of attack.
Hi. I think you are overestimating the vote as is the Galaxy pol. The herald sun in spit today’s editorial showing the ALP on 49% If the 48% poll is correct then they results fall back closer to the original assessment made after the New poll was released. Greens will be looking at 2 seats only in the upper house. The poll shows Family First way too high for what is basically a sectarian christian evangelist church. Whilst the poll provides a some more detail in that it provides a city/non city breakdown and a reasonable split in the Liberal/NP preferences not much has changed. I most definitely do not see People power coming up from behind. If you look at the distribution graphs I have published you begin to see a clearer picture of the fold up. We now have a wide gap of 9.5% to 12 % for the Greens 9.5 top 10.5% is about right. That would still give the Greens Southern and Northern Metro. They miss out in the South East primarily thanks to Liberal Party preferences. If the Galaxy poll is correct and Labor is looking at 48% building to 50% ion the metropolitan seats then it is a close race again for the fourth seat in the Western Metro with either the Liberal Party of the ALP taking the fifth. Eastern Victoria I will do more research before tomorrow but it is all rather academic as in just over 30 hours time will will gave a much more accurate poll result. the end could not come too soon.
Seats to watch have not changed. Upper house. Western Vic and Western Metro with the added interest of Eastern Metro. (North South and SouthEastern along with Northern and Eastern Vic appear to be a forgone collusion.
I expect a stringer swing in Prahran which will be close but again I think you have well and truly overestimated the Gay vote which swings both ways (Unless their is a clear civil right issue which there is not as much as those that benefit form such would like to make out there is).
Labor is expected to lose out in the Regional Metropolitan where the sing against will be higher then in the Metropolitan Melbourne.
I will be looking out for a surprise win from the DLP but not sure if they will receive the 2.5% they received in 2004.
I would like to give a vote of thanks to William who has done a Great job in proving what is one of the best, in depth and well informed blogs/assessment around. Well done. I am sure if we hang around we will have an interesting discussion in the wake of the results. By the Way the Galaxy poll was showing a 5% family first vote in the country. They may be doing better then the 3% I thought they would max out on but in any event they do now pick up sufficient preference flow to secure win. I would welcome your thoughts on the percentage break down in the seat that you think they have a chance as I have not seen then once on my numerous preference throws come up trumps. People Power once.. But I could have made a data-entry error then.
Enjoy and thanks.. I will be posting a revised count assessment during the count. I expect we will know by 8-9PM at the latest depending on the VEC shoving out that data. 25% of the upper-house count will tell much.
If Bronwyn Loses she has herself onlyh to blame as she should have attacked the Greens more then Family First (Not that I support Family First far from it it just that their votes are going to her anyway. In fact they could be her life line after the Garret walk)
Thanks again William.. Well done and much appreciated.
Portland in SW Coast is the paradox. Labor have hopes of lifting their vote there. Workchoices, renewable emrgy and Napthine moving his office to Warrnambool may help them. The Galaxy poll suggests that Bronwyn Pike has done a good job in health for the government.
Melbcity.
I dont think you understand GLBTI voters or Prahran. It is very different from the electorates on the other side of the river.
I’d also watch Northcote to be very very close. Labor is sending way too many supporters to Melbourne foryou to say confidently that it is a Labor retain.
I would say Labor should be very very nervous about Melbourne Richmond and Northcote.
Some final thoughts
1. Joseph O’Reilly wasn’t an unlucky candidate, he was a lousy candidate.
2. It would be a shame to see Denis Napthine lose his seat.
3. Special thanks to William for his work, and hopefully he will do as well for the people north of the Murray next year.
4. Final predictions ALP 52 LIB 29 NAT 4 IND 2 GRN 1
If the poll in the Border Mail is anything to go by, Labor doesn’t have a hope in hell in Benambra (primary vote at 31% and only 4.5% going to the Greens), but the Nationals are looking pretty good. The Greens HTV is also preferencing the Nationals and Liberals ahead of Labor. I dunno about FF, but I suspect they’re also preferencing the Nats first, as is Labor. Bill Baxter looks headed back to his favourite sinecure, despite only running at 17% support in the poll.
I don’t give the specific numbers in that poll much credence (a nearly 10% drop in the Labor vote with the local member retiring), but I doubt they’re so wrong as to give Labor a shot.
Re: Bass
Bass Coast is traditionally a safe Liberal area, Susan Davies was a once off phenomena
4-5% swing to the Liberals
Retirees are worried about WorkChoice because many have grandchildren who they fear for in the new Howard Workplace world!
Poll Bludger, on what basis do you think Eltham would be a Liberal gain? Why Eltham, and not say, Mordialloc?
Scrutineering for years in both Bentleigh and Mordialloc has thought me that the donkey vote sits about 1% in the area. In both Mordialloc and Bentleigh the Liberals have the donkey vote this time, the the ALP bedrock margin should be regarded as 3.5% and 3.8% respectively. I’d be suprised if both seats are decided on the night, I think teh ALP holding Eltham is more likely.
If the sucess of Christine Milne and Peg Putt is anything to by Bhathal would be a better leader than Di Natale. On Mildura I spoke to a local journalist today who though Nats would do well and this is consistent with Galaxy.
I picked Eltham too, it’s a feel in the air, and knowing people in the area they don’t think Labor has done enough. House prices haven’t sky rocketed in mentone, so mpeople still feel poor
Whoops, my mistake. Bill Baxter would of course need to outpoll Labor (or at least get close enough to allow minor party preference to get them past Labor) to get in in Benambra. That looks very unlikely. Doh!
Geoff R, I hope we have the chance to find out whether Alex Bhathal makes a better leader than Richard Di Natale. But both would make better parliamentarians than their opponents!
Hello all, new to this and think its great! just woundering if the increase in attacks on the Greens in the papers by the exclusive bretheran and Labor in inner melbourne over the past couple of days still be effective on the final outcome, or are people becoming a bit desensitised to the whole ‘radical agenda’ claims, specially now with environmental issues having more tration within the electorate (water, global warming, nuclear energy etc)??? what are you guys oppinions on this, and same for Family First, is the whole burning mosques and lesbians thing getting a bit old??? and im from the western victoria region for the upper house and just woundering if the Greens have a shot there, specially since i just helped them along!!! thanks for you insight!!!
my big tip is for Brumby in Broady to go to preferences for the first time – he is a slug of a local member – a professional political slave to corporations and could not give a tinker’s cuss for his constituents
Damian Roflmao: I’m not sure why you think Clem NB has only had one distribution. I think I’ve had three – the slightly dodgy attempting-to-look-official “Information on Postal Voting” letter, another leaflet, and finally a letter with a CDROM of the Vote Clem movie. I binned the CD – I’ve watched the movie on youtube, and I don’t need to relive the hideous production values again.
The ALP’s had maybe 3 or 4 mailouts and I can’t recall seeing any at all for the Greens. My girlfriend up in Northcote has been getting a lot of pro- and anti- Green mailout material.
Its time to put my two cents worth in!!
My feeling is that the libs may pick up the extreme marginals and them maybe a few higher up the pendulum.
The call is for the Libs to pick up
Evelyn, Hastings, Gembrook, Kilsyth, Ferntree Gully, Bayswater, South Barwon.
The Nats or Libs to pick up Morwell.
I would not be surprised to see the libs pick up:
Forest Hill – Kirstie Marshall won a huge swing last time and has been invisible in the local profile over the last four years. It hasn’t helped that she has refused to move into the electorate (she lives in Richmond) – it seems sometimes that Tony Robinson (Mitcham) is the de facto member for Forest Hill as well taking on issues that KR should have run with. She doesn’t deserve to be reelected.
Narracan – The government doesn’t seem to popular in Gippsland and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a spillover from Morwell.
Bellarine or Geelong – Again the ALP doesn’t seem popular in Geelong and with a swing on in South Barwon, it may take one of the others with it.
Mitcham – this is a very outside call, though possible as there are a few issues such as the Mitcham towers, the Laburnum underpass, the Springvale Road crossing which could all add up. To his credit, Tony is a very hard working local member. However, the ALP campaign has been very low key for a reasonably marginal seat (they may feel secure).
Frankston also a possibility.
The Greens seem well placed in Melbourne. Richmond and Northcote are possibilities as well.
I really can’t see Labor picking up seats from anyone. As for south west coast, Denis Napthine this time will have an incumbency advantage in Warrnambool that he didn’t have last time.
The interest may also be in the swings in the seats that don’t change hands. I can see big swing to the libs, nats in the seats like Hawthorn, Kew, Sandringham. Small swings in Prahran (the greens will soak up any swing). Also big swings in the north of the state – Benalla especially.
The libs need to pick up big swings (not necessarily to win) in seats like Macedon, the Ballarats, Monbulk if they are to have any chance next time. If 1 or more greens do get elected it will be an interesting 4 years as both sides will probably be in a take no prisoners frame of mind after a bloody camapign.
My two bob’s worth (really only about 1/6)
I’m estimating the 2 party swing will be around the 3% mark, but I reckon that only pulls in seats at 2%, since all the narrowly-held Labor seats were won in 2004 against incumbents. As a generalisation, I consider that’s worth about 1% (1/2% to the Liberal last time, 1/2% to the Labor MP this time).
So I think Evelyn, Hastings, Gembrook will go, and probably 2 of Kilsyth, Mount Waverley (most likely) and Ferntree Gully.
I don’t think Bayswater will swing – a Liberal pre-selection battle with the defeated candidate (former MP) running as an Independent and he’s not directing preferences.
If my assumption about a 3% average swing occurring, it’s hard to see seats in the 4% range like Prahran and Eltham being at risk.
I think we all tend to exaggerate local factors particularly in suburban seats where the political actors remain largely anonymous (except to political junkies like us).
I read what others say about Morwell, but there was a pro-timber CFMEU independent last time; surely that would have been some of the same protest which is being discussed this time. On the basis of my non-local knowledge, I predict Labor to hold.
The rumours about the swing in Geelong being larger than elsewhere justify South Barwon as a gain for the Liberals, but I can’t see the tide running to the 8% to encompass Bellarine and Geelong.
I think Richmond and Melbourne are real chances for the Greens, but I still think there will be significant leakage of intended Liberal preferences, when voters are faced with their choice. So on balance I think Bronwyn Pike and Richard Wynne will hang on.
And I like Constipated Clown’s confidence. Brumby’s primary vote was over 75% four years ago. A 25% swing I don’t think so!
I’m finding myself in furious agreement with Peter, except that I think the Liberals will win all three of Kilsyth, Mount Waverley and Ferntree Gully. I don’t see any reason why any of the next bracket of seats, except for South Barwon, would swing significantly more than the state average, which means they only really come into play if the 2PP is somewhere around Morgan’s 53% (and not Galaxy and Newspoll’s 55).
If the Greens statewide vote of 12% is accurate, one presumes on past House/Senate experience that their Upper House vote will be higher still, in which case we may be underestimating their performance there – they aren’t getting many preferences, but if they average (say) 15% in the Upper House across metropolitan Melbourne they won’t need many.
Whilst I think there will be a substantial swing to the Greens over the state as a whole, I expect it to be less in the inner city than elsewhere – mainly because in 2002 the (federal) refugee issue was still pretty potent as a factor in driving inner-city voters across from Labor to the Greens, and that’s less of a factor this time. I still expect the Greens to win Melbourne, but not the other three ALP-Greens seats. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see them top 20% in Kew, Hawthorn and Prahran, but all of these seats are too marginal for a low 20s primary to give them a chance of second place (in general seats on 10-15% margins have the most potential for independents and minor parties – closer and it’s too hard to get into second, safer and the lead candidate wins on primaries).
(BTW, my experience is that about 20% of Liberal voters preference Labor above the Greens).
I don’t see how a federal issue would really have that much of an effect on the Green vote at a state election. People, especially the highly educated types in the inner city, know the difference between state and federal issues and vote accordingly.
Also in response to Robert Merkel, it appears that the Greens are running a split ticket here. So they’re not preferencing the libs/nats ahead of labor.
P.S. the VEC website appears to be down on the eve of an election 🙁
Whoops, forgot to close the link tag there. Also here=Benambra.
yes vec website is down. not happy!
Also in response to Robert Merkel, it appears that the Greens are running a split ticket here. So they’re not preferencing the libs/nats ahead of labor.
A split ticked means that 50% of the preferences go to the Tories and the Country Gentry. So they are.
APPLICATIONS FOR POSTAL VOTING CLOSED LAST NIGHT (THURSDAY) AND PRE-POLLING TONIGHT.
The table below is the latest information on Postal votes provided by the VEC.
What’s missing, again, is that the number of postal votes that have been issued.
The VEC reports a vague figure of over 200,000 votes issued but for some unknown reason is unable to provide a detailed breakdown figure on each District. Which is surprising as you would have thought that all postal voting applications would have been checked off the electronic voters list before being sent out and as such statistics on the number of postal; votes should be readily available.
The VEC has spent millions of dollars on IT support and this important information cannot be relied on. I understand that postal returns are still being processed (even then they are electronically bar-coded) but the number of postal votes issued should have been available. We had trued to request this information daily but without success. This information should be on the VEC’s web site
More information on my web site. Click my name above
Reports coming from the VEC indicate that they have already undertaken analysis of results form e-Voting Centers which in itself raises a number of serious issues related to the probity, security and public scrutiny of e-Voting. When questioned about the analysis the VEC went quite. More on my blog. Lost in e-Space.
Let me assure you I fully understand the gay vote in Prahran. It is not as high and one-sided as you think. O’Reily never had in in him, he did not campaign string enough and was of the belief that he was going to be handed it on a plate. I picked his loss well before the election. I do not know where you get the idea that Prahran is traditionally Labor, far from it. It is the litmus inner-city seat. It became a strong liberal held set following the redistribution that saw Prahran taken out of the Melbourne Province and the Yarra River again a boundary for division. This seat will worth watching and it will be close. I agree Eltham is also another seat that might change above the normal statewide swing. Watch closer the regional centers (ballarat. bendigo morwell and rippon)
If people vote the same as the last fed election, then the Liberals would win, Prahran while not a true bellweather, tends to go toward the party in Government.